The Thing! Science Team wins!

[Devante]

Town on D1 has to answer two questions: who is OGT, who already got N0. Hjelp never answered them. He answered a third question: how do I keep my blood off the wire.

Right now i think its Hjelp and Loose.

I would like to hear "a most sus Thing duo" and why named by the rest of the town players.

Those of you who are Thing do not need to react. Those are town: I wanna hear duo's and the reasons why.

The result on all this should decide "the FT list" for Mcready on who to flame tonight.

Right now I got hjelp on sus list and torn between king and LC.

Hjelp because of posts and seems to be fluff adding, i.e. a bunch of probabilities with no justification. I can add numbers too, Sonic is 157% town right now, there is a 186% chance the things are laughing, it is a 69% sadness on the meter that one of the two girls may be a thing.

LC not sure if doing his rabbit holing analytics to solve it or intentionally using it to steer things in thing favour. Leaning towards the second one right now as he tends to back off when logic doesn't make sense in games whereas this game he is trying to make it make sense even if illogical, if that makes any sense lol.

King for his bussing although tacking on traf absence on that shade as well but not sure I buy the whole I set a trap for you and you passed. Seemed more like how do I justify what I said since plan failed.

[Devante]

But regardless Happy Bday King my favourite Goldilocks

[SoN!c]

SoN!c wrote...

Right now I got hjelp on sus list and torn between king and LC.

Hjelp because of posts and seems to be fluff adding, i.e. a bunch of probabilities with no justification. I can add numbers too, Sonic is 157% town right now, there is a 186% chance the things are laughing, it is a 69% sadness on the meter that one of the two girls may be a thing.

LC not sure if doing his rabbit holing analytics to solve it or intentionally using it to steer things in thing favour. Leaning towards the second one right now as he tends to back off when logic doesn't make sense in games whereas this game he is trying to make it make sense even if illogical, if that makes any sense lol.

King for his bussing although tacking on traf absence on that shade as well but not sure I buy the whole I set a trap for you and you passed. Seemed more like how do I justify what I said since plan failed.

lollollol

But: its true im 157% town

And i agree 100% on what you say here.

Hjelp + Kingm +1

[Loose Canon]

Sonic I'll call what I think - and not what you think - and definitely not be an echo chamber
And at the end of the day, whilst this is now your day, calling it as I see it should be the most valuable thing I can do for you.

fpd by you you innocent rascal

[SoN!c]

Give me a good duo theory Loose. A duo. An OGT + a recruit and why? Is that so hard to ask?

Also: give me your best theory with an open mind. Not a theory that spins around Dev whatever. I think Dev is town.

So reread please - get out of the rabbit hole - and win this for town

[HottBunnie]

Hey, I just think we should all keep an eye on Homer. Look at what he has said in this game. I want to give him a second to respond. But look below I really feel like we should put a Lynch on Homer.

sorry everyone, had a busy weekend and wasn't around. just got to reading the last three pages of posts...

this battle between sonic and LC is reminiscent of the battle between sonic and rag in the line of duty game. activity is fun, but not sure we need to see 6 straight one line posts.

LC has some valid points - we should think about who we would have picked to infect. and based on last game, chances are it wouldn't be LC. sonic might actually be high on the list. not sure if he's the one i would pick, but would definitely consider him

for now.... Unvote

And Rag turned out to be wolf..

So a battle has a purpose.

I stopped engaging Rag because of too much flood level yes (but i wish i hadn't because you know..., he turned out to be wolf..).

Same goes here, except gut feeling now says Loose is town. Just making extra sure by engaging a bit more.

good point. it was the combativeness that got my attention but i forgot you were right in who you singled out

I think in the end I think it's homer for me.

so this is funny.. because after i posted thursday night, i was thinking about who i would infect if i was the OGT. and my conclusion was you because you're extremely active and i don't think i've ever seen a single post of suspicion about you. which makes you unique in these games. and i'm not just saying that because you picked me. i swear on my future dice roles that i'm being honest here

me on the other hand seem to be someone everybody is on the fence about every game.

Sorry seems that everytime I want to play this something happens. I was withouth electricity and internet for 3 days. FUcking old building.
Back to normal now. Sorry DDS for the warnings

Sooo you had no electricity for 3 days, and because of no electricity you had no internet.. Makes sense!

And because you had no internet you could not log in and post something.. Makes sense!

But without electricity and no internet.., how did you manage to take all those game turns then in the last 3 days?

Game 24737825 2026-09-26 04:55:30 - TrafalgarLaw01 received 1 troops for holding ?
Game 24770356 2026-09-25 15:53:10 - TrafalgarLaw01 reinforced ? with 2 troops from ?
Game 24770355 2026-09-25 15:52:20 - TrafalgarLaw01 reinforced ? with 2 troops from ?
Game 24770354 2026-09-25 15:50:43 - TrafalgarLaw01 deployed 6 troops on ?
and on and on...


Makes no sense

i love this detective work. the effort to go check his games is great. and although i said that i probably wouldn't have picked you as my D0 infection, you do have a knack for this kind of thing, which would be a reason to want you on my side if i was the Thing.


and i don't think that traf's post should be enough to not get him replaced. to have already missed the deadline to post, get an extension out of the goodness of DDS's heart, and then pop in with a "sorry i haven't posted" and basically nothing else... not really a contribution there.


why are we already talking lynch? we need a blood test first. to get half way to a lynch already is crazy. and we aren't pressed for time. there's been no mention of when D1 is ending (unless i missed it? i'll be honest.. i've had a few drinks and about 3/4s of the way through page 6 i started skimming rather than reading). but i think we still have time.

i don't think we need to BT traf. based on track record, i would never pick him to infect, and i don't think any rational player would. i'm good with either hjelp or charle, if we can come to a concensus on them. both are in the camp of "not really suspicious, but not ruled out either", IMO

[SoN!c]

Im sure Hjelp agrees on lynching Homer

[SoN!c]

@Hjelp

Do you want to join the Homer wagon? Free tickets i hear

[hjelp]

@ SoN!c

I stick to my own list OP for the moment being. And my numbers are math, not from some random air.
Regardless - your statement that I jumped around doesn't just fit since I made one jump - Also there are others jumped more than once if you are into such stuff as jumping around (Tigger). So your argument is a bit thin. Also, you didn't answer regarding further arguments that OGT or IT are among NOP.

@ Devante - the numbers are no fluff they are justified. Do the math and you will find out.

For me probabilities are helpfull to use when to decide a route to follow. Especially in this game when to find OGT and IT.
If you don't want to use them, then don't use them.

[SoN!c]

Ok hjelp. Give me a good duo Thing theory.

[homer_jay]

quick post to say that... wow, you guys posted a lot in the last two days. so far i've read pages 7 to 10. 11 to 13 still to go

then i'll post some thoughts. curious to see what else has developed in the last day

[kongming3]

Happy birthday King!

Thereby - I will stick to my list of two persons - Kingm(Traf) and Charle- Though I will have to wait further to find out what Kingm will post. So Charle suddenly is the primary suspect as I see it. Since Probability to find one of the - at least 1 OGT or IT in OP is ~53.33%

I'm honestly not trying to target you in particular hjelp, but you're doing something funky with these stats, and given that that is what is apparently your central consideration for the moment, and I don't think you necessarily have to be scum, feels useful to interject. The probability of any of the nine alive and untested players being chosen as the OGT at the start of the game is 1/9. The probability of the remaining 8 being chosen as the other thing is 1/8 if it was unweighted (which it isn't, and that's part of why I don't think these stats are useful here anyway but I digress.) Chance of at least one of Kingm and Traf being chosen is 1 - (7/9*6/8) = 41.67%.

You got to that number in the first post and then you changed and boosted it to 53.33% for reasons I don't understand? Even if we ignore that error/slip-up/nefarious and dastardly deed, the statistical odds you find for Kingm and Charle are going to be the same as for any other two-person group, it doesn't really help us to approach things from that direction without further information to work with.

I actually also would have converted annie N0 if I was the OGT for this game (same as what homer has claimed to believe). I don't think she's necessarily suspicious for D1 because she hasn't otherwise come up to a meaningful degree in lists of who people would supposedly convert N0 (assuming some degree of honesty), but she is a strong player who people never seem to want to suspect. Looks a bit more odd for homer to bring it up directly after being accused by annie though.

Unrelated thought, but I was thinking through the potential merits of a mass claim at some point (doesn't really work for reasons including too many extra names and the potential for the Original Thing to just answer later or already know fake claims,) and I wanted to clarify something with sonic or DDS.

@ SoN!c You are for the moment confirmed town and you also have prior knowledge and experience with this setup. I thought this might have came up earlier, but I wasn't able to find it when I checked. Is FT able to use flamethrower the night they are converted? And is the order of backups locked in between characters, such that we'd know if one was skipped over upon transfer?

[Loose Canon]

How can devante have been so wavering about bt of sonic, when dev was town and endgame lost in black metal mafia, when the one time i got it right and called sonic and extreme, had a mega ding dong with sonic, got lynched for it and town didnt lynch sonic the day after i was mislynched?

So if dev has to be one of king, homer or kong.
If dev wouldnt he be less likely to do the 5 posts in 30 mins if paired with a best pair of hands? - makes kong least likely of the 3.
Im thinking dev probably told truth about his going down the middle though. That makes homer more likely than king/traf.

So sonic, my infected duo would be dev and homer

Fpd by kong

[homer_jay]

ok. that was a lot of reading. a little disheartened to see that page 13 turned on me, but i only have myself to blame for that.

i would NOT have voted for a BT on sonic. i wish i had been around to argue against that so we didn't waste it. but having the certainty that sonic is town isn't nothing.

i don't understand LC's attack on devante. i agree with sonic on this too - devante seems very town to me. personally, i chalk up LC's game play on him just being aggressively wrong. i don't think the Thing would go so hard at someone that nobody else seems to be suspicious about. and at this point, with sonic being confirmed clean, i think getting a lynch on someone without sonic's support will be tough. townies who are on the fence are sure to be swayed by what sonic feels, as an opinion we know we can trust. the only benefit the Thing could have by targetting dev is that it causes chaos and distracts us from looking at others.

we got off of hjelp really fast based on a claim. in a game where we only have one power role, a claim doesn't really say much.

we still have a lot of time to get this sorted out, but need to start heading in the right direction.

my thoughts at this point (and yes, i stole the list from bunnie's post and edited where i needed to.. thanks Bunnie )

1Sonic- cleared
2Myself - Im town I promise lol but my words are only my words,
3Annie seems town but i stand by what i said earlier - if i was the Thing, she would be my target precisely because she would naturally feel townish
4Dev- i'm confident he's town
5King/ former Traf- the thing is chosen randomly, right? so a 1/10 chance of being the thing. i'm certain he's not the D0 infection based on my earlier logic. so that puts him 90% clear. nothing that has been said moves that percentage up or down for me
6LC- two games in a row where i'm not sure if he's scum or he's playing poorly. leaning more towards scum though
7Charle - i was suspicious of him based on the early happenings in the game, but Sonic seems to be saying they are less sus so I say less sus
8Kong - not enough said too quiet sus
9Hjelp : at this point, my main suspect. clearly others thought so too, in order to get him to L-1 so quick. he posted some interesting stats, but he based all of it on everything being equal - it's not. the Thing isn't using a random number generator to decide who to infect. twisting stats around to try and prove your point is a very effective way to confuse people in a world where so many are bad with numbers. i'm glad we backtracked on the lynch, but let's not lose sight of it entirely
10 bunnie: very logical posting, active, seems very town to me. and i promise i'm not upset you want to put a lynch on me

i promise to check in at least daily moving forward!

happy birthday King!


FP by king and LC.

[homer_jay]

oops.. FP by kong* and LC. damn their similar names lol. cost me in that resort game we played too

[Loose Canon]

I also want to throw something back at sonic though.

You've asked us to give pairings.
At some point prior to the lynching and last pleas will you please give your pairing?

Fpd (extensively by homer x 2)

[SoN!c]

@ loose: i want you to focus on Kong or Homer. Get me a duo theory on Kong / Homer and you can freewheel as much you want as long you exclude Dev in your dual theory.

[homer_jay]

So sonic, my infected duo would be dev and homer

lol... this post coming just as i'm typing up a message which includes my belief that dev is town... guess that's exactly what i would say if LC was right.

i really need to get my attendance better. i'm not at traf levels of inactivity.. but it seems any time i disappear for a couple days, i start to draw suspicion. pretty much every game.

[kongming3]

Sorry to double post (and I'm Fped and have to ignore those for the moment since I have to go back to work shortly), but this was going to bother me. Think I figured out what you did wrong hjelp, and you can't sneak sonic in to that percentage, particularly without saying anything. It's bad stats, bad practice, and it doesn't make sense to do here since they're not dependent. I would also note again that these stats aren't helpful anyway unless we consider weighting the conversion probabilities properly, which just comes back to talking out and theorizing and making reads anyway.

[hjelp]

@ kongming3

The 53.33% is given by -> finding 1 of these - at least 1 OGT or IT in OP 41.67%.

@ homer_jay

It's not to prove my point - it's what I use to help me to chose a road to still go for OP. I did the numbers afterwards today to see if my OP-plan still make sense for me. It was to control if I had to abandon the OP-plan. but as I say - you don't have to use them. And numbers were used earlier in this game.

So far I can't say that Charle has convinced me not to be OGT or IT. Just because of stating several times being clean isn't reassuring in my point of view. Rather on the contrary.

[SoN!c]

Flamethrower before conversion.

Im counting on you loose.

@hjelp: do your hjelp magic on Kong and Homer

[hjelp]

@ SoN!c

I will have to think a bit regarding a duo Thing because it will not depend on any numbers - only on postings made.

[SoN!c]

Finding a duo is the game since the start Hjelp..

[SoN!c]

Sorry to double post (and I'm Fped and have to ignore those for the moment since I have to go back to work shortly), but this was going to bother me. Think I figured out what you did wrong hjelp, and you can't sneak sonic in to that percentage, particularly without saying anything. It's bad stats, bad practice, and it doesn't make sense to do here since they're not dependent. I would also note again that these stats aren't helpful anyway unless we consider weighting the conversion probabilities properly, which just comes back to talking out and theorizing and making reads anyway.

Kong at least gives the truth.

[Loose Canon]

Sonic quid pro quo i ll trust in asking you will give your duo before the lynch and last plea.

If not dev, then 1 from those on your bt and 1 from those not on it.
1 not on it i have to go for kong, back to impressiveness of past play
1 on it, i think either annie or bunny.
Annie is less likely because i think she told the truth when saying homer - intellectual type, even if he doesnt have a highet iq his name suggests the og homer. Also game cut shorter last game so less track record to go on when choosing.


Bunny - sure footed last game asked good questions, nullify her as an opponent and have fun with her on your side if choosing her. If she was choosing, well i do think annie was truthful that she would have chosen homer.

Fpd