The Thing! Science Team wins!

[Kingm]

I have just read the whole thread.

Just wanted to say that I know for a fact that Traf did not have power for 3 days, he played from his phone the 3 days, but he did miss a turn, https://www.conquerclub.com/game.php?game=24772043
I find it a bit sus that Devante did not point that out, since he is on the same team.

I fast read everything, and I'm feel we have no deadline for D1, so why are we "quick lynching" hjelp?

I would love to at least sleep on it and see what my brain thinks of all the new information it has read,

Very cute King/Traf. How would I know that traf was without power and you were covering hmm. Check the team post, it states law in it, not traf. And you were covering for law for the weekend, yes I saw that, but you did not state traf. Maybe you meant to say traf but that's not whats there. Although that doesn't make sense since you were covering for law. Maybe you were covering for both don't know but do know about law.

Second, to bring up clan/team convo into the mafia game in a post that is "hey I read everything but need to get some sleep before I comment further" but....."P.S. let me try and throw Devante under the bus in the mean time with info he did not know but might work since he's in a team game with him". interesting

Get some shut eye Goldilocks cause your my second FOS with Loose right now

Now I feel like I'm playing familiy feud, and I am one of the idiots screaming "good answer, good answer" :p
But you answered exactly what I hope for, because it was a test, since I have knowledge I thought you did not have, and it also kind of worked with what Sonic had written about Traf before..

Anyhow, you are cleared in my book until further notice.
At the moment I have some sus on LC for some reason, not sure why.
I have a busy day today, getting one year older hurts, but will try to check in and read everything since yesterday before I go to bed.

[hjelp]

I think one can narrow it down a bit. I divide in old-players (OP) and not old-players (NOP) disjunct. OP are 2 and NOP are 7. We want to find one OGT or one infected IT.

Probability (both OGT and IT in OP) is ~2.78%
Probability (one each OGT and IT in OP or NOP) is ~38.89%
Probability (both OGT and IT in NOP) is ~58.33%

At least 1 OGT or IT in OP will be 2.78 + 38.89 ~41.67 %
At least 1 OGT or IT in NOP will be 38.89 + 58.33 ~97,22%

Probability to find one of the - at least 1 OGT or IT in OP is ~53.33%
Probability to find one of the - at least 1 OGT or IT in NOP is ~22.86%

So the total chance will always be 2/9 since

41.67 %*53.33% is 2/9
and
97,22%*22.86% is 2/9

I think I got it right.

[hjelp]

Thereby - I will stick to my list of two persons - Kingm(Traf) and Charle- Though I will have to wait further to find out what Kingm will post. So Charle suddenly is the primary suspect as I see it. Since Probability to find one of the - at least 1 OGT or IT in OP is ~53.33%

[HottBunnie]

… ignores the random statistics from before 7am
… begins baking a birthday cake

Your own sentence betrays you: you said Dev “correctly deduced Sonic would probably turn out negative.”

That logic can only come from a Thing mind. Because the Things already know and they would be suprised if a townie figured it out.

so LC you just jumped on my radar

… places birthday cake on the kitchen table it reads
Happy Birthday King

[hjelp]

- Charle

I don't think relating to old games is an argument for being "town" in this game? but you're using it a few times in this game, how come? This is a new game.

[hjelp]

I’m going out to put snow chains on the tractor and winter tires on the trailer. The baking will have to wait for another day.

[hjelp]

but my computer is on if it says I'm online ... often it is.

[Loose Canon]

I decline to place a vote on Dev right now Sonic

Fp x 3

[Loose Canon]

Like bunnys post

[Loose Canon]

The real stats hjelp revolve around

5 who voted for sonic bt
1 who conciously didnt
2 who didnt declare
1 absentee

[SoN!c]

There is no fun in those Hjelp stat numbers..

For me Hjelp and Loose are the top 2 suspects at this moment.

Ofc 2/9 is the standard math after my BT (2/9 is 22.22%).

So Hjelp's post is just math that says “2/9 anywhere” i.e. don’t pick a name. Especially Hjelps name as he is on the lynch block the most...

I'd say you have way bigger chances to be Thing then 22,22%.

You also name Charle and Traf to be the highest OGT or "IT" (recruit) % - a staggering 53% (but Charle is not ideal as recruit after his tongue slip up in Rag's game so the real % would be lower on Charle as only OGT material).

So i have a problem with that theory - your suspicious of Charle and Traf the most because of the highest % they have according to your stats. But Charle's % can't be the highest..

So it seems this is just a Thing defence post, not a townie search post. What your actually saying is "Don't lynch me but just go for a random lynch instead".

-------

About Charle, i agree he could very well be the OGT, because "Anti-plan all day long" ("just BT fast and random"), that was the feeling i got the first days anyways but: Loose never looked at Charle, not even once. Like he knows Charle is not the OGT.

Instead Loose placed all his chips on "SoN!c hot" but missed.. But did he miss? Because we wasted a BT on a townie, just like Things would want it. So all chips on SoN!c would be a great strategy for a OGT (or recruited) Loose. SoN!c is the perfect target to steer the entire town into a missed BT.

Now Loose cavils the count and fabricates "Dev-panic" out of thin-air.. Will not write "Lynch Hjelp" not even when the only confirmed townie says so.. Like he wants to protect Hjelp. Is it Loose and Hjelp? is it Loose that is panicking?

--------

Rest the questions on Kong and Homer.

They are the experienced veterans flying under the radar (together with Traf/Kingm). Under-the-radar is how Things wins D1.

If Hjelp flips town then Kong is FT material if he keeps flying under the radar. Because they appear not to be same side alligned (just like Charle and Loose). But if Hjelp flips scum then Kong is town, at least on D1 he was.

PS: Happy Birthday King

FP by Loose

[Loose Canon]

Again don't agree with the premise Sonic but thats not why I came back online.

Came to add that the other stat is that 2 knew A Priori that Sonic would test negative.
(or at least its 2 if the infected know each other - asking Charle this?)

[annieh]

In the LC v Dev v Hjelp match-up, I prefer kingm. His posts have an easy breeziness to them that feels inconsistent with the frenzied finger pointing I'm seeing from most people and he inherited our suspicions of Traf.

Kong came in stronger, caught some heat, then backed off. Reasonable for self preservation whether Thing or not. I don't like it and would prefer a full-send commitment to finding the Thing.

Happy birthday kingm! I knit you a hat!

FP, I appreciate lc trying to return our focus to the voting record.

[SoN!c]

Came to add that the other stat is that 2 knew A Priori that Sonic would test negative.

Yes. And you still needed 6. You had 5. Traf was a chair.

So the prior is not “the two who knew sat in the bushes”. The prior is at least one of them is in that wagon, because a townwagon was the only way to guarantee the BT never hits a Thing.

You started the wagon like Dev said "zero in on Sonic like white on rice then back off once it gets enough traction". Hjelp boarded it. That is not a footnote. That is the D1 manual for Things.

If both Things were off the pile, you don’t get 5 so fast by accident. You only get 5 that fast because someone who already had the answer picked the answer.

[hjelp]

- Sonic

There is no fun in those Hjelp stat numbers..

For me Hjelp and Loose are the top 2 suspects at this moment.

Ofc 2/9 is the standard math after my BT (2/9 is 22.22%).

So Hjelp's post is just math that says “2/9 anywhere” i.e. don’t pick a name. Especially Hjelps name as he is on the lynch block the most...

I'd say you have way bigger chances to be Thing then 22,22%.

You also name Charle and Traf to be the highest OGT or "IT" (recruit) % - a staggering 53% (but Charle is not ideal as recruit after his tongue slip up in Rag's game so the real % would be lower on Charle as only OGT material).

So i have a problem with that theory - your suspicious of Charle and Traf the most because of the highest % they have according to your stats. But Charle's % can't be the highest..

So it seems this is just a Thing defence post, not a townie search post. What your actually saying is "Don't lynch me but just go for a random lynch instead".

-------

About Charle, i agree he could very well be the OGT, because "Anti-plan all day long" ("just BT fast and random"), that was the feeling i got the first days anyways but: Loose never looked at Charle, not even once. Like he knows Charle is not the OGT.

Instead Loose placed all his chips on "SoN!c hot" but missed.. But did he miss? Because we wasted a BT on a townie, just like Things would want it. So all chips on SoN!c would be a great strategy for a OGT (or recruited) Loose. SoN!c is the perfect target to steer the entire town into a missed BT.

Now Loose cavils the count and fabricates "Dev-panic" out of thin-air.. Will not write "Lynch Hjelp" not even when the only confirmed townie says so.. Like he wants to protect Hjelp. Is it Loose and Hjelp? is it Loose that is panicking?

--------

Rest the questions on Kong and Homer.

They are the experienced veterans flying under the radar (together with Traf/Kingm). Under-the-radar is how Things wins D1.

If Hjelp flips town then Kong is FT material if he keeps flying under the radar. Because they appear not to be same side alligned (just like Charle and Loose). But if Hjelp flips scum then Kong is town, at least on D1 he was.

PS: Happy Birthday King

FP by Loose

I'm on my way out but I can answer this -

The numbers are added as my own basic following old-player plan - you as well as Charle mention old games - as I see it - this is a new game, old games dont' matters. and regarding the numbers - Charles isn't the highest. the numbers are the Probability to find one of the - at least 1 OGT or IT in OP is ~53.33% relates to Charle or Kingm and not in a way how they played old games. I argue for a way to find OGT and IT.

[hjelp]

- SoN!c

You say
"They are the experienced veterans flying under the radar (together with Traf/Kingm). Under-the-radar is how Things wins D1"
I'm not flying under the radar.

[Loose Canon]

Came to add that the other stat is that 2 knew A Priori that Sonic would test negative.

Yes. And you still needed 6. You had 5. Traf was a chair.

So the prior is not “the two who knew sat in the bushes”. The prior is at least one of them is in that wagon, because a townwagon was the only way to guarantee the BT never hits a Thing.

You started the wagon like Dev said "zero in on Sonic like white on rice then back off once it gets enough traction". Hjelp boarded it. That is not a footnote. That is the D1 manual for Things.

If both Things were off the pile, you don’t get 5 so fast by accident. You only get 5 that fast because someone who already had the answer picked the answer.

Or it was credibly the right thing for 5 townsfolk to do.
- I thought it was.
- and I think it is credible that the other 4 would too
There was a certain accelaration in the wagon - but once Charle came on the other 3 didn't come on super fast.

Dev on the other hand started with a fence sitting post because he didn't want to be number 6 - or according to your premise could deduce you were town.

Admit it there is something strange around 5 posts in 30 mins for Dev - almost like he was infected with no Things on the Wagon.

[Loose Canon]

Nothingsonthewagonitis

[SoN!c]

Nothingsonthewagonitis

More a serious case of "DevgotawarningfromDDStitis"

Symptoms:

Host pokes you for being quiet
You post 5 times in 30 minutes like a person who does not want to be replaced and also because it's hammer time with lots of peeps active posting.

Known side effect if untreated: Day 1 dies of footnotes while Hjelp does 2/9 arithmetic in the corner.
Known cure: reread the thread.

And Yes Loose. 2 knew a priori that water is wet. We can print that on a mug too.

If your master theory is “the two who knew sat out, and also the guy with a warning panic-posted,” you don’t have a theory. You have a hobby.

[hjelp]

- SoN!c

- SoN!c

You say
"They are the experienced veterans flying under the radar (together with Traf/Kingm). Under-the-radar is how Things wins D1"
I'm not flying under the radar.

I continue - This is a good argument for me to drop the old-player-plan (OP).
Do you have more argument to drop the OP ? If you have then I will consider to change to Not-Old-player-plan (NOP).

[SoN!c]

..why I came back online:

Came to add that the other stat is that 2 knew A Priori that Sonic would test negative.

This entire “A priori” theory is just the rules wearing a fancy lab coat. How you spin this into "Dev is the Thing" is masterclass Loose Goose.

2 knew a priori I would test negative

2 knew a priori Charle would test whatever Charle is

2 knew a priori Hjelp would test whatever Hjelp is

You can say it about any name. It never moves. A theory that is true for every player is not a theory. It's the rulebook wearing a moustache.

[SoN!c]

- SoN!c

- SoN!c

You say
"They are the experienced veterans flying under the radar (together with Traf/Kingm). Under-the-radar is how Things wins D1"
I'm not flying under the radar.

I continue - This is a good argument for me to drop the old-player-plan (OP).
Do you have more argument to drop the OP ? If you have then I will consider to change to Not-Old-player-plan (NOP).

Love this

[SoN!c]

Town on D1 has to answer two questions: who is OGT, who already got N0. Hjelp never answered them. He answered a third question: how do I keep my blood off the wire.

Right now i think its Hjelp and Loose.

I would like to hear "a most sus Thing duo" and why named by the rest of the town players.

Those of you who are Thing do not need to react. Those are town: I wanna hear duo's and the reasons why.

The result on all this should decide "the FT list" for Mcready on who to flame tonight.

[SoN!c]

Because: Somebody in this room is already two people.

[Devante]

I’m going out to put snow chains on the tractor and winter tires on the trailer. The baking will have to wait for another day.

Where the hell are ya you got snow already for tire chains