Killer:Victim:Detective:Coroner -- Round 2 Started

by **danalan** on Sun Apr 19, 2009 10:29 pm

In every Assassin game, there is a winner -- the player whose target is killed; and a victim -- the player killed. This tournament will be a series to determine who is most likely to be either of these, and who can predict these two players. Rather than try and formally structure the tournament for a number of entrants, I'm keeping sign-ups open until May 10. At that point I'll divide the players up evenly into 6, 7, or 8 player games, with 6 games and a different mix of opponents for each player. 6 games at once = Premium players only, sorry.

Winners advance to the second round in the winners bracket, as do the victims -- in the victim bracket. After a few rounds, we'll winnow things down to 6, 7, or 8 players in each category. The winners and victims of this final round will be the Top Killer and Most Likely Victim.

Additionally, in round 1 of each game, each player should post their predictions for Winner and Victim. Correct predictions will be noted, and the greatest number of correct predictions wins Best Detective and Canniest Coroner, respectively. Yes, you can predict yourself and your victim, but that might give away your strategy.

(Rule Edit)
Round 3 is the cutoff for predictions, not round 1. This allows for better predictions, and more compliance with making predictions.

(Rule Edit)
Win 2 games in a round and you can specify the settings for a game in the next round.
(Rule Edit)
Win 3 games in a round and you can specify the settings for two games in the next round.

(Rule Edit)
Reserves should not be necessary in this tournament. Players eliminated (by failing to either win or be killed in a round) are the reserves, with the number of correct predictions (total) determining the order of reserve activation.

So this tournament has something for everyone - Master Assassin? Prove it. Suck at Assassin? Ok, show us. Good handicapper? We'll see.

Round 1: 6 Sequential Assassin Games
Classic Art, Flat, Chained, Foggy
Montreal, No Spoils, Adjacent, Foggy
High Seas, Escalating, Unlimited, Foggy
San Francisco, Flat, Chained, Foggy
Egypt: Nubia, Flat, Adjacent, Foggy
Supermax: Prison Riot, Escalating, Unlimited, Sunny

Round 2: 5 Sequential Assassin Games
Winners Bracket
Waterloo, Escalating, Chained, Sunny (chosen by danryan)
Sydney Metro, Escalating, Chained, Sunny (chosen by mrbang)
Iberia, Flat, Adjacent, Sunny
Malta, Escalating, Unlimited, Foggy
King of The Mountains, Escalating, Chained, Sunny

Victims Bracket
Hong Kong, Flat, Unlimited, Sunny (chosen by mrbang)
American Civil War, Flat, Chained, Foggy (chosen by Suzy1)
Dust Bowl, Flat, Chained, Foggy (chosen by whitetrash67)
South America, Flat, Chained, Foggy (chosen by Bolo XXXV)
WWII Europe, Escalating, Adjacent, Sunny (chosen by GreenBaize)

Round 3: 4 Sequential Assassin Games
Winners Bracket

Victims Bracket

Scoreboard Here

Players:
danalan
MoB Deadly
danryan
milo67
zissou2
shoop76
GreenBaize
ralphcptc
freakns
Lexitonia5
whitetrash67
saraith
Bolo XXXV
yanf7
JunglyBorn
Theldin
xerro
gogglez
mbjones79
mwaser
coacheberhardt
gubarretto
mrbang
Suzy1
plysprtz
Zorbas
soccerghost
Pwyll
nashlloyd
snakedoctor
King Hezekiah
MEK
iblaskov

1) The Top Killer:
2) The Most Likely Victim:
3) The Best Detective:
4) The Canniest Coroner:

by **MoB Deadly** on Sun Apr 19, 2009 11:20 pm

I'll play
funny strategy, say you are going to assassinate someone, but your target is someone else, that could get confusing

by **ppgangster** on Sun Apr 19, 2009 11:53 pm

MoB Deadly wrote:I'll play
funny strategy, say you are going to assassinate someone, but your target is someone else, that could get confusing

I agree, because even if you predict someone else, then you won't win - and even if you do, you are out of the tourney anyway... so should we predict in all the games, or only yours... what happens if you are eliminated... do you keep guessing in your bracket??? :-s

If you answer these, I might join! Seems interesting...

by **danalan** on Mon Apr 20, 2009 1:04 am

ppgangster wrote:
MoB Deadly wrote:I'll play
funny strategy, say you are going to assassinate someone, but your target is someone else, that could get confusing

I agree, because even if you predict someone else, then you won't win - and even if you do, you are out of the tourney anyway... so should we predict in all the games, or only yours... what happens if you are eliminated... do you keep guessing in your bracket???

If you answer these, I might join! Seems interesting...

There are four 'winner' slots:

You become top killer by winning games in every round, eventually winning the final 'winners' game.
You become the most likely victim by being assassinated in every round, eventually being assassinated in the final 'victims' game.
You become the best detective by predicting the killer in the most games you play -- obviously, playing in more rounds means more games, thus increasing the number predictions you make, and thus your odds of winning.
You become the canniest coroner by predicting the victim in the most games you play -- again, playing in more rounds means more games, etc.

You're not stating who you're killing -- you're predicting who will win, and who will be killed.

by **danryan** on Mon Apr 20, 2009 8:44 am

Sign me up pls.

by **milo67** on Mon Apr 20, 2009 8:46 am

in, please

by **ppgangster** on Mon Apr 20, 2009 3:15 pm

danalan wrote:You become top killer by winning games in every round, eventually winning the final 'winners' game.

easy to understand

danalan wrote:You become the most likely victim by being assassinated in every round, eventually being assassinated in the final 'victims' game.

Loosing the most points, not very attracting title...

danalan wrote:You become the best detective by predicting the killer in the most games you play -- obviously, playing in more rounds means more games, thus increasing the number predictions you make, and thus your odds of winning.

Meaning you win them all or loose them all... you get more chance, which makes sense, but by having a lot of players eliminated every round, the odds aren't high...

danalan wrote:You become the canniest coroner by predicting the victim in the most games you play -- again, playing in more rounds means more games, etc.

So to make some statistics... you'd better say your name as a winner, because if you win them all you win the title also...-because by voting for someone else would mean you want to become the victime to get it right, if you don't, you are out of the tourney anyways... hence the most killed victime should bet on himself... and as a victim the odds that you can predict your killer every game are small, also, who'd like to loose so many games and get the title anyway???

Somewhat of a good concept, but lacks in interest for me... Good luck for the tourney though. I'll be looking at who will win the titles and such!

by **danalan** on Mon Apr 20, 2009 4:58 pm

ppgangster wrote:So to make some statistics... you'd better say your name as a winner, because if you win them all you win the title also...-because by voting for someone else would mean you want to become the victime to get it right, if you don't, you are out of the tourney anyways... hence the most killed victime should bet on himself... and as a victim the odds that you can predict your killer every game are small, also, who'd like to loose so many games and get the title anyway???

Somewhat of a good concept, but lacks in interest for me... Good luck for the tourney though. I'll be looking at who will win the titles and such!

Maybe I didn't make something clear. With 6 games per round, there's a good chance you can win at least one of them to advance in the winners bracket. Same for the victim bracket. Why continue in the Victim bracket? To prove you're not the most likely victim, of course.

I don't think it will take too long it will winnow things down to 8 or less players in each bracket, but there's no way to tell until we play.

The detective & coroner predictions are extras, not the point of the whole contest. Who you guess will win or be killed has no bearing on the games, or advancing to the next round. It's a simple running total -- how often did you predict the outcome? No tie-breakers, and no 'requirement' to make a prediction. It just seemed to fit the concept, and add a potentially strategic twist.

by **danalan** on Tue Apr 21, 2009 12:50 pm

Doing some math: Say we start with 64 players. Eight 8-player groups play 6 games, or 48 games in total. So there will potentially be 48 (8x6) winners, and 48 victims. Even assuming 20% of the players get multiple wins (or deaths) in those 48 games, 40 players will advance to the second round.

For this example, say it's 44 players in the second round winners bracket, and 43 in the victims bracket. In the winners bracket we'd have four 7-player groups, and two 8-player groups. We play one fewer games each round so, 5 games each group. (4x5)+(2x5)= 30 maximum winners. In the victims bracket we'd have five 7-player groups, and one 8-player group. Again, 30 maximum victims.

By this point, every player would have predicted 11 winners and 11 victims (6 games in round one, 5 in round two).

Continuing the example, let's say some real champions showed themselves in the winners group, while the victims bracket was well-distributed. We've got only 20 winners left, but 30 different victims. In the winners group, we'd have one 6-player group, and two 7-player groups. In the victims bracket, we'd play five 6-player groups. Four games in this round means 12 maximum winners, and 20 maximum victims.

Round 1 = 6 games
Round 2 = 5 games
Round 3 = 4 games
Round 4 = 3 games
etc.

So you can see that eventually, but not too quickly, we'll be reduced to one group in each bracket, and at that point the players will play one game to determine the overall winner or victim. Once all the games are played, we'll add up the predictions, and determine detective and coroner positions.

I'm also adding a feature -- win 2 games in a round and you get to pick the setting for a game in the next round.