Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

onbekende · Post by **onbekende** » Sun Sep 03, 2006 2:38 pm

Too bad I can't have this, I had just a massive good roles, the first time in this game for me, EVER!!

reverend_kyle · Post by **reverend_kyle** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:07 am

after downloading this so far the dice have been equal

Attacker dice distribution Defender dice distribution
1s ██████████████████████████ 65 / 366 (17.76%) ██████████████████████████ 30 / 185 (16.22%)
2s ██████████████████████████ 63 / 366 (17.21%) ██████████████████████████ 29 / 185 (15.68%)
3s ██████████████████████████ 63 / 366 (17.21%) ██████████████████████████ 35 / 185 (18.92%)
4s ██████████████████████████ 57 / 366 (15.57%) ██████████████████████████ 22 / 185 (11.89%)
5s ██████████████████████████ 64 / 366 (17.49%) ██████████████████████████ 33 / 185 (17.84%)
6s ██████████████████████████ 54 / 366 (14.75%) ██████████████████████████ 36 / 185 (19.46%)

its too bad the bad rolls just come at inopportune times.

cyberdaniel · Post by **cyberdaniel** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 11:36 am

Well, you still have a big percentage for the defender 6s and a small one for the attacker.

sully800 · Post by **sully800** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 12:30 pm

I have rolled 19.03% 6's which is my highest number as an attacker. The second lowest defender number is 6's with 12.04%. And despite the low mass of rolls around 2/3/4 for defense and my slightly high amount of 6's I have been losing slightly more 3v2 battles than I should.

My dice are still way too low to be meaningful though.

hendy · Post by **hendy** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:42 pm

The dice are gay that is all

reverend_kyle · Post by **reverend_kyle** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 6:40 pm

Bigger more defender based rolls have slowly been taking over my chart

Attacker dice distribution Defender dice distribution
1s ██████████████████████████ 90 / 482 (18.67%) ██████████████████████████ 35 / 231 (15.15%)
2s ██████████████████████████ 84 / 482 (17.43%) ██████████████████████████ 37 / 231 (16.02%)
3s ██████████████████████████ 81 / 482 (16.8%) ██████████████████████████ 42 / 231 (18.18%)
4s ██████████████████████████ 77 / 482 (15.98%) ██████████████████████████ 33 / 231 (14.29%)
5s ██████████████████████████ 84 / 482 (17.43%) ██████████████████████████ 39 / 231 (16.88%)
6s ██████████████████████████ 66 / 482 (13.69%) ██████████████████████████ 45 / 231 (19.48%)

gavin_sidhu · Post by **gavin_sidhu** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 4:36 am

Attacker dice distribution Defender dice distribution
1s ██████████████████████████ 78 / 520 (15%) ██████████████████████████ 36 / 255 (14.12%)
2s ██████████████████████████ 83 / 520 (15.96%) ██████████████████████████ 46 / 255 (18.04%)
3s ██████████████████████████ 96 / 520 (18.46%) ██████████████████████████ 45 / 255 (17.65%)
4s ██████████████████████████ 86 / 520 (16.54%) ██████████████████████████ 54 / 255 (21.18%)
5s ██████████████████████████ 94 / 520 (18.08%) ██████████████████████████ 39 / 255 (15.29%)
6s ██████████████████████████ 83 / 520 (15.96%) ██████████████████████████ 35 / 255 (13.73%)

Dice seem okay. The bars arent very accurate however, 15.96% to 18.46% look the same, but 15.96% and 15% look much different.

Ive won all 6 of my 2vs1 battles

reverend_kyle · Post by **reverend_kyle** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 9:08 am

I've won all of my 2 to 1 battles except a couple... but we dont want lack to know that then he'll fix the glitch.

cyberdaniel · Post by **cyberdaniel** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:12 pm

I've made a bit of modifications to the graphics of the percentages. Now the max value is 25% so you'll see the diferences between different dices in the graphs also.

The other improvements will wait a bit since I don't have to much time and I've reached a problem (I can't add scripts to the page to be able to show/hide the stats and to make available the individual game stats).

Tubby Rower · Post by **Tubby Rower** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 9:20 am

I get this

403 Forbidden
You must supply a local referer to get URL '/conquerclub.user.js' from this server.
thttpd/2.21 20apr2001

when trying to access the script.

kevinc · Post by **kevinc** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 11:13 am

sully800 wrote:Unfortunately though, I still don't think it will uncover the main problem with the CC dice. I bet in the long run the # of 1's and 6's thrown will all even out. It's just that in the short run you have days of really good attacks and times of terrible attacks. It's not that the different numbers don't appear enough, but the dice are just streaky.

The only problem with the CC dice is that they're the same as regular dice. People don't seem to understand that random does not mean evenly distributed results.

cyberdaniel · Post by **cyberdaniel** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 3:37 pm

Tubby Rower wrote:I get this
403 Forbidden
You must supply a local referer to get URL '/conquerclub.user.js' from this server.
thttpd/2.21 20apr2001
when trying to access the script.

Hmm, just tried the link and got that for the first time. I tried again and it worked. I tried it from 2 new firefox installations and it worked. Might be their server. Try again. Anyone else had this problem?

cyberdaniel · Post by **cyberdaniel** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 3:38 pm

kevinc wrote:The only problem with the CC dice is that they're the same as regular dice. People don't seem to understand that random does not mean evenly distributed results.

Not exactly evenly distributed but the percentages should get closer and closer as you roll more dice.

gavin_sidhu · Post by **gavin_sidhu** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 8:45 pm

cyberdaniel wrote:
Tubby Rower wrote:I get this
403 Forbidden
You must supply a local referer to get URL '/conquerclub.user.js' from this server.
thttpd/2.21 20apr2001
when trying to access the script.
Hmm, just tried the link and got that for the first time. I tried again and it worked. I tried it from 2 new firefox installations and it worked. Might be their server. Try again. Anyone else had this problem?

Yes, but it didnt matter for me, although it said that, there was still a button at the top where i could download the script from anyway.

Tubby Rower · Post by **Tubby Rower** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 5:39 am

I just tried it again and then cleared my cache and tried it once more. Still getting it. Could someone PM me the code so that I could save it in a js file. I'm not sure what's going on since I have installed GM scripts before.

And btw, you can install the "forbidden" script, but it doesn't do anything. It's just HTML and no js.

EDIT:: I just installed the forbidden thing again and this time it worked. That was really screwy because I have tried it before. Oh well... I'll have fun with this one and I needed it over the weekend since I could get a number > 2 to come up in my dice.

howie · Post by **howie** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 11:41 am

Nice little addition to my war planner

Tubby Rower · Post by **Tubby Rower** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 11:43 am

Percentages have balanced out after ~ 1000 rolls in less than 5 hours.

btw, I've modified the script to enable/disable the graphs with an option at the top of the script. I've also integrated it with my point tabulation modification to Tr0y's original script.

Good job. Thanks for working this out.

cyberdaniel · Post by **cyberdaniel** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 2:58 pm

hmm, how did you manage that, for some reason I couldn't get it to work righ, could you send it to me?

cyberdaniel · Post by **cyberdaniel** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 3:03 pm

how much did they balance? I'm now at over 1500 rolls and they're still the same.

sully800 · Post by **sully800** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 3:04 pm

kevinc wrote:
sully800 wrote:Unfortunately though, I still don't think it will uncover the main problem with the CC dice. I bet in the long run the # of 1's and 6's thrown will all even out. It's just that in the short run you have days of really good attacks and times of terrible attacks. It's not that the different numbers don't appear enough, but the dice are just streaky.
The only problem with the CC dice is that they're the same as regular dice. People don't seem to understand that random does not mean evenly distributed results.

I don't expect evenly distributed results(in the short run) but I do think you have bigger winning and losing streaks than you would with normal dice. I can't say that for sure that there is anything wrong with the CC dice, but if there is, its not that the defender rolls less 1's than the attacker or anything like that IMO. Lack himself said that if there is something wrong it might be because the computer picks its random string of numbers, and then it might pick a similar string on the next roll because it came from a similar location. That would cause the streakiness many have observed. But that might be in are head and the dice might be perfectly random, if you can ever come close to creating such a thing.

cyberdaniel · Post by **cyberdaniel** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 3:14 pm

The dice seem to be almost 100% random, maybe with 500 more rolls and I'll get that 16.66% or something close to all the dice (attacker and defender), however that still doesn't mean that I want my dice to come in streaks. Since strategy has its part in the game I'd like to have an equal chance of winning in every game. Having a winning streak and a loosing streak desn't give that player equality in all the games.

Stopper · Post by **Stopper** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 5:14 pm

But don't streaks just come with randomness? If you purposely eliminated the streaks, it wouldn't be random any more..

P Gizzle · Post by **P Gizzle** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 5:32 pm

for some reason when i play, it goes like this

i lose 2
opponent loses2
i lose 2
opponent loses 2
1 and 1
1 and 1

cyberdaniel · Post by **cyberdaniel** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 5:33 pm

How is a 8v1 and you loose 7 or 50v30 and end up 2v12 a random thing (all in the same game)? How is it random to think that you can take 7 countries, each with 1 army with over 15 and loose before conquering 4 countries? How is it to not be able to attack in 4 games just because I'd loose against 1 army more times than the number of troops I get?

I'm not saying don't loose against 1 army 3,4,..,8 times in a row from time to time, but its ridiculous when I can't attack in 4 games for days just because I would loose most of the times.

cyberdaniel · Post by **cyberdaniel** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 5:34 pm

P Gizzle wrote:for some reason when i play, it goes like this

i lose 2
opponent loses2
i lose 2
opponent loses 2
1 and 1
1 and 1

yea, I got that sometimes in my lucky streak. Most lucky streaks have something like this.