Blackpool Manor Dinner: D3 - LAFITE GRAND CRU WITH A FINE ROAST BIRD!

[Loose Canon]

Was posting fpd by a lynch so respect

[annieh]

You've done great ZW!

[SoN!c]

official vote count

Devante: 6 by Hottbunnie, Annieh, Ragian, Hjelp, Katyssis and Zulu Warrior
Annieh: 1 by Loose Canon

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch!

There are 9 voters alive with each one vote

IT'S IN RED AND IT READS "VOTE DEVANTE"!

That's a lynch!

Lynch scene coming up!

[SoN!c]

LYNCH OPENING SCENE

Notable House roles (from claims and discussion):
Archivist — investigation role (can check players via “archives”).
Heir — special town role that resists later recruitment and slows Circle growth.
Usher (claimed)— can redirect a Circle recruitment attempt that targets a power role onto a random vanilla townie (one night).

Other: Kong Ming was a 3P with a poison ability.

Numbers matter: With Kingm modkilled (town) and Kong Ming gone as 3P, the living count is tight. Host explicitly noted that a mislynch on D2 = Circle win in the current configuration (roughly 3 Circle + one voteless townie among ~10 alive).

Day 1 – “Kong Mulligatawny Ming soup”:
Extremely long discussion phase focused on identifying the Patron and Secretary.
Process-of-elimination narrowed suspects heavily toward Charle, Hjelp, Kingm, and Homer. Loose Canon drove a lot of the analytical framing (premises about who could/could not be Patron or Secretary).

Votes were scattered for a long time. Charle became the primary pressure target.

Outcome of the day: Charle was effectively the focal mislynch target. He later clarified he was originally vanilla House who learned he was the Heir. This was treated as a confirmed town flip in spirit even if the formal lynch math was messy.

Night 1:
Recruitment occurred (“An invitation was accepted”).

Kong Ming’s 3P poison resolved (self-poison/death).

No other major public night results beyond the recruitment announcement.

Day 2 – “Poached Haddock” (current phase):
Annieh claims Archivist and delivers a highly flavorful investigation result: she found a photo in the manor archives of a man with a horse named “LIL DEVANTE” holding a trophy he signed as president of the Blackpool Manor Breeders Club. She calls Devante Circle and votes him.

Votes pile onto Devante (HottBunnie, Annieh, Ragian, Hjelp, Katyssis → 5 votes). Needs 6 to lynch with 10 alive.

Loose Canon counters by claiming Usher (House) and voting Annieh. He runs probability arguments that an Archivist claim at this point has a high chance (~45–58% depending on assumptions) of having been the recruited Circle member. He treats the timing of Annieh’s claim and her earlier defensive play around Hjelp/Charle as suspicious...

Strong division: several players treat Annieh’s claim as the best information available and are willing to lynch Devante. Loose (and to some degree others) argue that lynching the claimed Archivist is the higher-value or safer play given recruitment odds and the tight numbers...

Charle is effectively voteless town (Heir).

The Host has repeatedly warned that a mislynch ends the game for House..

Devante has been relatively quiet/absent during key windows (traveling), which both fuels and complicates the case against him...

TO BE CONTINUED!!



BUT DEVANTE IS POACHED!!

[SoN!c]

Deep AI analyse of the game (forbidden by players but not by he host when he wants the best possible game for the players and thus needs to deep analyse every angle for best balance possible!):

Analytical Observations : Strengths of the game:

Exceptional host flavor and commitment . The dinner-course framing, invitations, and running narrative are unusually immersive for a forum mafia game.

High analytical density. Players (especially Loose Canon, Hjelp, Annieh, Ragian, Charle) produce real process-of-elimination, probability calculations, and meta-reads rather than pure vibes.

Interesting recruitment engine. The delayed knowledge between Patron and Secretary + N1 recruit creates real information asymmetry and makes early days high-stakes.

Role claims that actually matter. The Archivist claim is the central information piece of D2; the Usher claim is a direct counter.

Analytical Observations :Weaknesses / Friction points:

Too much Flavor can obscure mechanics. Early “soup etiquette,” or claimed alleged "hand signals" wether they were intended or not, and photo clues were treated as potentially real by some players and to some extend by the host, which blurred the fine line between narrative and mechanical information for some players.

Extremely high reading load and length. 500+ posts with heavy RP mixed into the deduction makes it easy to miss key mechanical statements.

[SoN!c]

BLACKPOOL MANOR — BREAKING!

DEVANTE EXPELLED AFTER SIXTH VOTE WAS CONFIRMED!

Sources inside the Manor report that Devante has been turned out following the conclusion of the second course. He has been identified as the original Patron some sources say — the individual who issued the first invitation, selected the Secretary on Night 0, and later extended the second invitation.. But at least Two members of the Circle remain at the table if this story is true. Which remains to be seen. In any case our repoter learned that Nine guests are still present, or at least this is what reliable sources believe. Majority required to expel is now five some reports say.

What we do know is that The Second Course has ended. The rest remains unclear, it could be that night actions decide the outcome or not. The next evening has not yet been called and there is no further comment from the Narrator at this time.

[SoN!c]

BLACKPOOL MANOR — BREAKING! DEVANTE EXPELLED AFTER SIXTH VOTE!! PATRON CONFIRMED!

Sources inside the Manor report that Devante has been turned out following the conclusion of the second course. He has been identified as the original PATRON — the individual who issued the first invitation, selected the Secretary on Night 0, and later extended the second invitation.

The Patron who recruited and to be believed who would do the killing when his inner circle was 3 strong..

Two members of the Circle remain at the table. They remain at large and are extremely dangerous (each one of them can night kill but not more then one kill every night).. Their identities have not been confirmed. All we know is nine guests are still present @Blackpool. Majority required to expel is now five.

AND...The second course has ended. .

It is now night 2 (N2) - for those with night powers send me your actions!

[SoN!c]

As game master I want to give special thanks to Devante who played outstanding as the Patron. From the early bold poker bluff “hello future wives” line!! (W.T.A.F.*!!) to some strong tactical long stretches of quiet that followed, he always kept the table off balancing it longer and held the role with a poker face until the sixth vote finally landed! F*cking GREAT PATRON PLAY!!!

The House has removed the Patron. The Circle still has two members remaining. Thank you for the game, Devante What a great Patron you were . Nine alive. Majority is now five.. But this game is far from over!

Anything can happen.

*W.T.A.F. most commonly stands for "what the actual f*ck?!", used to express extreme shock, or just great "Wow! I can't believe he did that!" Hats off to being super POKER FACE!

It is now N2: no more posting until D3!

[Devante]

Just got home from the road so can now post.......well I'm dead, or am I........ You Bastards have no patience. Kiddo won Gold in the tournament so was not a day wasted and guess I'll have to settle on killin a Moose or Elk tomorrow instead. See ya'll very soon, very soon, or actually, maybe over some roast bird with some fava beans and a nice chianti, before we have some fruit and champagne....

*Go Circle*

hahahahaahhahaahahaaaaa

[HottBunnie]

[Zulu Warrior]

You've done great ZW!

Thanks annie

[SoN!c]

The rain outside had not stopped..

Sometime after the second course ended and the house had gone quiet, the footman found Homer on the landing outside the library.

Homer lay against the wall, one hand still resting on the banister as if he had been interrupted mid-step. Like he reached for his gun but then decided not to.

The only thing we know: He had been stabbed before he got a chance to use it!. The wound was clean and deliberate. He never fired. The gun is lost.

On the floor beside him lay his card, the seal broken. The footman did not touch it at first. Scared by the sight, he only turned it so the light from the landing window fell across the words..

Then the card is visible:

HOMER, HOUSE VIGILANTE, HAS BEEN STABBED TO DEATH!

Eight remain alive. Majority is now five to lynch!.

That silent choice is the significant part. As the Vigilante he had the power to name a target from Night 2 onward, but he did not use it. Whether he chose not to risk killing a House member or simply never got the chance is left open..

IT IS NOW D3!

[Loose Canon]

Was posting fpd by a lynch so respect

Whilst I'm digesting the Night Action Results one matter of business left over from D2.

I was about to come back at Dev when I was fast posted by the Red lynch from Zulu.

And what I was about to come back on Dev with was the point that the actual nature of his claim invalidated my 58% and actually meant that apart from anything else the burden of proof/argument as to whether to lynch him or Annie would lay predominantly on him now.
It was going to be more blunt than that - but that's what the essence/substance of it was until I was FP'd by the red lynching.

[SoN!c]

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch! Town will have to play this on knive's edge again.. The vig is killed.

So play ball! And give it your best

[Loose Canon]

And please no fast lynching votes on anyone.

There is a lot to digest here and the grand cru, tastes like gnats cru

[SoN!c]

And please no fast lynching votes on anyone.

There is a lot to digest here and the grand cru, tastes like gnats cru

Don't be the Roast Bird Loose

[hjelp]

This was not good. homer could actually used the gun to target a Circle - but as SoN!c stated - "Whether he chose not to risk killing a House member or simply never got the chance is left open ..."
And now all of us will have to be aligned again for a lynch. On the bright side - there can't be any invitations.

[hjelp]

let me think -

official vote count

Devante: 6 by Hottbunnie, Annieh, Ragian, Hjelp, Katyssis and Zulu Warrior
Annieh: 1 by Loose Canon

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch!

There are 9 voters alive with each one vote

IT'S IN RED AND IT READS "VOTE DEVANTE"!

That's a lynch!

Lynch scene coming up!

BLACKPOOL MANOR — BREAKING! DEVANTE EXPELLED AFTER SIXTH VOTE!! PATRON CONFIRMED!
...
Two members of the Circle remain at the table. They remain at large and are extremely dangerous (each one of them can night kill but not more then one kill every night).. Their identities have not been confirmed. All we know is nine guests are still present @Blackpool. Majority required to expel is now five.
...

There were a total of 10 and 9 voters

There were 6 votes for the Devante lynch and homer, Loose, Devante (and Charle of course) didn't vote for the lynch - so 6 votes and if all voters are House => homer, Loose and Devante flip Circle - now homer flipped Circle => one among the voters is Circle.
If Loose flips House => two voters Circle
If Loose flips Circle => one voter Circle

Did I get it right?

[Loose Canon]

I am worried about being the Roast Bird under certain circumstances.

Most likely of which is if Annie says she investigated Homer.
Most extreme of which is if Annie says she investigated me and got a guilty result which I'd know is palpably untrue but I can't see any other outcome than me and house being f'd and plucked if so.

One thing House should know from the killing of Homer is that at least 1 of the votes on Devante was circle on circle and I know it was 2 of the votes.

I'll tell you all what I think at the moment before Annie reveals and Doctor is claimed.

Annie, Bunny each very unlikely to be Circle unless they are in Cahoots.

Hjelp - very likely to be Circle

Ragian - an obvious candidate to have been recruited

If Katy or Zulu were recruited N1 then Zulu is more likely to have been recruited than Katy - reason being the interactions between Sonic and Zulu and the posting of Zulus hammer vote immediately before Dev's lynch looks like it could have resulted via prompting in a Mafia chat forum as opposed to a series of premium message exchanges.

FP'd by Hjelp - I'm 99% sure a mislynch is fatal (think Hjelp is trying to appear hjelpful)

[hjelp]

@ Loose

I don't get it. If annieh investigated you - why shall annieh say you are guilty result if you are House?

[Loose Canon]

There is an outside possibility that annie, devante and 1 other planned and staged a circle on circle attack d2 as a surefire nearly impossible to detect and nearly impossible to refute win strategy. It would be sheer genius if so, my problem with that outside possibility is i reckon there would probably have been a more obvious win strategy that even genius level wouldnt have thought of such a circle on circle one