Blackpool Manor Dinner: (N2)

[Loose Canon]

4.20am i'm not going to play devils advocate -decided against it.

Would be a shame to auto lose this game if dev flips house.
It would also be bad if he flips circle, because then time that sonic has put into this is perhaps lost to some extent, but to a lesser extent because not game over.
Also discouraging for the new players who might otherwise get a lot of immersive fun from mafia here.
A lot of things i could go on and on. In this sentiment i wouldnt hold it against dev or kong or king.

At least not up against a time limit in this game day.

If noone wants to engage me on 58% logic, not obviously any place for me to go substantively gamewise in this game for now till dev has posted.

So i might go jokey teasy whilst in pause mode.

Ok fpd dev thats good. Good man whatever you are little bush devil.

[hjelp]

Vote Devante

[homer_jay]

If noone wants to engage me on 58% logic, not obviously any place for me to go substantively gamewise in this game for now till dev has posted.

i'll engage on the 58%. there are two problems i have with it. one minor and one major

minor concern - it assumes that we believe you're house. i think most people are leaning that way.. but 100%? not quite. and every percentage of doubt we have on you reduces that 58%.

major concern - you seem to think 58% = 100%. yes, the numbers show it's more likely than not that the archivist has been turned. but 42% isn't negligible. you're harping on about this as if once you hit 51%, it's fait accomplis that it has to go that way and nothing else can happen.

but this all may be a moot (moo? mute?) point if we can't get the inactives to show up and chime in as well


a couple of other points - annieh's timing checks out. LC made a lengthy post that included an ask for the archivist to speak up now because we're in trouble. two minutes later, annieh puts up her flavourful post speaking up as the archivist. there is no way she wrote that post that fast. so that means, independently of LC's request, she was already writing her post. find it off-putting that LC then claims that timing is "holding on to" the information so far in to D2.

and was there really confusion about charle's role in this game D2 onwards? sonic clearly stated that he is still alive, he was house, but he has lost his vote as a result of the mislynch. i instantly read that as him being a living player but not being able to vote. i guess it would have been nice if sonic had said explicitly "10 players remaining so it takes 6 votes to lynch" but i think that should have been understood.

[Loose Canon]

You see Hjelp - as the most suspect player apart from the roughly 50/50 Annie Dev, that could mean you are voting Dev to support Bunny. Or it could mean you are double bluffing and hoping the Vote switches to Annie. Or it could mean you are innocent.

The 3rd option is the least likely of the 3 to me.

In any case no more votes on Dev for now please.
(for the benefit of Katy and Zulu an innocent House vote on Dev would open way for a Circle who hasn't already voted Dev to add to your 5th vote their 6th and so win the game for Circle - and only circle knows for sure whether Annie or Dev is Circle) (I think it is actually remotely possible that both are, but that is the remoted of isolated desolated possibilities/locations a bit like Blackpool Manor)

fpd by Homer

[Loose Canon]

All good valid points Homer.

On the last point re Charle confusion I'm not sure I was aware that it made a mislynch today game over. I hadn't realised the full extent negative to town impact of Charle counting in the majority required to achieve a lynch.
Makes Charle prime contender for any LVP Sonic/Conquer Club might be awarding at game end - literally.

[Ragian]

To be honest, I kinda get distracted when you guys turn arguments into percentages, fractions, or vectors... I try to analyse people's play, their wording, and tone. That's not scientific, I know. But I feel like I have a decent BS-radar. I haven't seen Annie as scum, so obviously, she could be pulling my leg, but it feels genuine. The only thing I didn't like was the mentioning of almost everyone when asked for possible accomplices. Annie did, however, highlight hjelp, and, to some extent, me...calling me cool (I don't care if that was what it said, that's what I read). My vote stays.

[Loose Canon]

Again fair Ragian.

Priced in for me regarding Annie and initial highlighting of Hjelp. Also priced in for me was her turning heat down on Hjelp with the maybe Charle just didn't read the message. Open chat cautioning Hjelp to be careful perhaps. Maybe the degree of pricing in changes as I hear arguments.
All, remember to price in that Circle now has 3 coordinatable brains , whereas had 2 isolated from each other brains D1 so pulling legs of House is now magnified.

[Loose Canon]

And (frowning at Ragian for his distaste for mathematics) there are currently 12 legs to pull.

[Ragian]

I can only speak for my own legs. Annie told me not to police in here

[Ragian]

And with that wit...ish...I'm out till tomorrow at some point. Gotta get ready for that Monday job. Mundane job.

*repeats mantra* don't drink, don't drink, don't drink...

[Loose Canon]

At least Mr Recovering alcoholic should'nt get legless.
Visually lack of back and backbone maybe?

[SoN!c]

official vote count

Devante: 4 by Hottbunnie, Annieh, Ragian, Hjelp
Annieh: 1 by Loose Canon

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch!

There are 9 voters alive with each one vote

[Loose Canon]

At a game on knife edge stage;
Sobering vote count Sonic.
(Rag won't need the sobering and won't like the counting.)

[katyssis]

And with that wit...ish...I'm out till tomorrow at some point. Gotta get ready for that Monday job. Mundane job.

*repeats mantra* don't drink, don't drink, don't drink...

it's only friday...

[katyssis]

vote devante

[katyssis]

vote devante

[SoN!c]

official vote count

Devante: 5 by Hottbunnie, Annieh, Ragian, Hjelp and Katyssis
Annieh: 1 by Loose Canon

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch!

There are 9 voters alive with each one vote

DEVANTE IS AT L1!

The suspense! The suspense is unbearable! A classic, critically acclaimed suspense thriller with high-stakes thrills in a room for both hard logic and immersive roleplay!

Will Devante be lynched???

[Loose Canon]

Someone take their f'ing vote off dev for now!

Annie why did you choose dev to investigate?
Why not hjelp - suss all way through d1?
Why not rag- best player best recruit?

Are you only saying dev because under sus from bunny

[Loose Canon]

Smelling a rat.

Although smelling a rat when theres no rat would be worse.

Although convincing others of a non existent rat would be worst of all

[Loose Canon]

An annie, rag,hjelp circle scares me immensely.
A 2 out of 3 of the above circle including annie could be fatal

Bunny appealing mainly to you to lift the 2 out of 3 threat for now.

[Loose Canon]

I really don't know hat has happened but being a fun bet gambler who's probably over all won quite big predicting 1 2 3s when occasionally visiting dog races over the years, but never got a 1,2,3 on horses (bigger fields) this is my as of now fun 1,2,3 on the dirty dogs, in case this goes to the dogs quickly.

1. Original Patron - Ragian - voted Hjelp when reasoning pressure was on Charle, said D1 he was counting on me D2, said he'd suspect Annie if her style of play changed D2
2. Secretary and original Archivist - Hjelp - played it edgy D1 and distracting game set up speculation, could always claim Archivist D1 if that materialised
3. Night 1 recruit and originally Vanilla - Annie - Ragian would have seen her as deserving of recruiting - after adjusting herself to badside rowed back on Hjelp, after Circle enquiry to Sonic for clarification on wincon, Sonic informed all that mislynch = Circle win, shortly after Annie made claim of archivist herself (knowing Hjelp was og archivist) on the only viable player for investigation and guilty result (once not Rag or Hjelp) - Devante - impeccably timed as she herself said.

Its actually the most likely 1,2,3 taking account of all form and the odds available in a small field and thats how I've overall got big returns on fun bets on 6 dog races over maybe 10 in total visits to dog stadiums over the year
Whether thats the result of this particular dog race - who knows - I just know thats my fun bet 1,2,3
(a 1,2,3 correct order bet on a 6 dog race can payout anything between about £7 and £45 (occasionally more up to say £75) -for a £1 bet and I've typically racked up winnings in the £21-£35 range on such bets)

[Loose Canon]

Correction to last post - I've given the payout range for the 1-2 forecast payout range for 1-2-3 is in the region of £30-£250 to £1 (I do 1-2s and 1-2-3s on each race) and combo them 6 x £1 forecast allways 6 x £1 trio allways.

[annieh]

LC, have you been recruited?

Someone take their f'ing vote off dev for now!

Annie why did you choose dev to investigate?
Why not hjelp - suss all way through d1?
Why not rag- best player best recruit?

Are you only saying dev because under sus from bunny

Objection, asked and answered.

Kingm was the leading contender due to my personal hang-ups. Luckily he died in the soup and saved us from a bad investigation.

My understanding is it is better to use investigation on people who are not giving other signals to identify weird play. Devante seemed normal, maybe too normal, I thought I'd likely have to give an opinion about him day 2.

Rag is on equal footing, well maybe 58/42 with homer. Neither with any momentum. The bunny suspicions would give me something to build on or negate for a player reading close to neutral.

Rags, I can speculate more if you insist. I don't have anything much to contribute. I am accepting recommendations for my next investigation.

I think Dev's reply being, again, lame and attacking vs mine being awesome and demonstrating should be enough to get this vote accomplished.



The secretary will inherit the kill (and not recruitment) if we get the patron, but they will be down below 3 and unable to kill in any case.
Devante patron- secretary can't recruit, circle can't kill rest of game
Devante stooge- patron can recruit, circle can't kill til next course

[annieh]

Quote so he gets inbox notification. Only now he'll get two because I posted this to sign ups because the quote is from sign ups. Crap.

Have I been removed?

Recap for ZW in particular, who I don't think knew he was signing up for all this reading:

Zulu Warrior! I have revealed my role as archivist and my successful investigation into Devante. Devante is Circle. House is counting on your vote!

[Loose Canon]

No ive not been recruited and circle should assume i will use my power n2 if game is still on, and so circle should assume if you are not circle you will get another investigation.
Circle know ive not been recruited, other house dont know that.

Going back to my question notable you havent answered why not hjelp in your reply

Fpd annie

ZULU DO NOT VOTE READ VERY VERY CAREFULLY

Bunny get your vote off Dev now
Any other town on the dev vote get off now