The Thing! Science Team wins!

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SoN!c
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Re: The Thing! Day 1

Post by SoN!c »

Let me give my reasoning on Hjelp again:

Hjelp’s Day 1 is three cuts.. (Nauls is our cook afterall):

First cut: silence. Opening days he flew under the radar. Almost nothing on the table, no suspect, no case. Just present enough not to be replaced. (Claimed "to be travelling" later).

Second cut: the wagons. Once his name was up as a possible Thing, the quiet ended immediatly and the jumping started.. Traf first, then onto me once votes were already there, “I call your hand,” then off Traf again when the wagon moved. No theory under it. Calling a hand is not a reason. And I was not dodging the BT. I had already said test one of Charle, Traf, or me. The phrase "calling you hand" only works if nobody checks the order. In short : Be on the wagon, as long as the wagon is not on him. Any wagon will do. Panic galore..

Third cut: the reasoning, and only then. When confronted his boarding passes on all those wagons had no valid theory, "The old-player" case and the "30 Sep numbers" and "It's Charle" showed up.
Like he already knew in the second cut who the Things are, so he did not need to spend time on that search.. Some of the third cut theory is decent yes. It is also way too late. Because it only arrived when confronted he had no search theories on the Things. Only then he started to think on that. Again like he never had the need to do so before?

Then for Dessert: He pleas random numbers 2/9 on every seat, but then prefers Charles anyway. . :D A Charle he claims he suspects the most but never voted for BT.

Ofc i could be wrong but boy, if we let all this slip, and we do not lynch Hjelp - just how stupid as a science team are we?
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Re: The Thing! Day 1

Post by hjelp »

@ SoN!c

not quite.

hjelp wrote: Tue Sep 29, 2026 11:29 am - SoN!c

...
I think you adressed the last post to me?
.... - and why is Charle one of my primary suspects - Simply because Charle follow your trail. The most of the posts are about reinforce or accept your posts. As - want to keep the good faith with SoN!c. So may be.

...
I gave now the elaborated answer since you directly asked. All I have written is well argued for if you read it carefully. It was one jump that's all. and also argued for before I jumped - a valid theory you self accepted. And I was travelling, some are.
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Re: The Thing! Day 1

Post by SoN!c »

It's the timing that is damning. Not the travelling. Too many things add up.
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Re: The Thing! Day 1

Post by hjelp »

well. not as many as Charle if I may say so.
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Re: The Thing! Day 1

Post by hjelp »

Read your Charle-file and add what I wrote in my long post and then see what your conclusion will be.
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Re: The Thing! Day 1

Post by SoN!c »

Let's hear what rest of town has to say about that?
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Loose Canon
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Re: The Thing! Day 1

Post by Loose Canon »

SoN!c wrote: Thu Oct 01, 2026 12:05 pm
Loose Canon wrote: Tue Sep 29, 2026 4:04 pm I would quite like a vote count because im not at allsure that just because sonic said hjelp was at L-1 he was.
It takes 6 to lynch.

Yes yes, fine (doffs his bill)
When you give the word i'll clap my wings together and vote hjelp
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Re: The Thing! Day 1

Post by hjelp »

and your Bunny-file
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Re: The Thing! Day 1

Post by Kingm »

HottBunnie wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2026 6:58 am … ignores the random statistics from before 7am 🕖
… begins baking a birthday cake
SoN!c wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2026 2:38 am Your own sentence betrays you: you said Dev “correctly deduced Sonic would probably turn out negative.”

That logic can only come from a Thing mind. Because the Things already know and they would be suprised if a townie figured it out.
so LC you just jumped on my radar

… places birthday cake 🎂 on the kitchen table it reads
Happy Birthday King 👑
Thanks for the cake, it was good :)
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Re: The Thing! Day 1

Post by Kingm »

annieh wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2026 3:03 pm I have a hard time believing a Thing would have enough interest to check hjelp's math. +5 happy scientist points to kong

Bunny says look at homer, and ok, yes, let's do that. But then the full homer quote with no comment on the quote! If you're not adding something, your not adding something. Overall, I don't have an issue with Bunny.

I have an issue with king, to a lesser extent hjelp, and to a lesser extent lc and Dev.
The issue you have with me is from our first game together, when you got a bit insulted when I tried to be funny, and I think you still not have forgot it, hehe ;)

On another note, thanks to all for the birthday wishes yesterday
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Re: The Thing! Day 1

Post by Kingm »

Yeah, I think SoN!c logic is solid, so I will follow your lead.

Lynch Hjelp
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Re: The Thing! Day 1

Post by SoN!c »

SoN!c wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2026 2:38 am Your own sentence betrays you: you said Dev “correctly deduced Sonic would probably turn out negative.”

That logic can only come from a Thing mind. Because the Things already know and they would be suprised if a townie figured it out.
What i find a bit sus is also this..

Hjelp used anything he could find to draw the heat off him away to "whoever land". Traf, Charle, Bunny...

But This Loose sentence is the best free opening of all day.. You spend hours on stat numbers proving "Charle is 2/9 times with 53% result being Thing" while that sentence just sits there.??

Hjelp used every opening to put a lynch on someone else. He never used this one.?

If Loose is the Thing partner, you do not hand the table a case against him?

Hmmmmmm
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Re: The Thing! Day 1

Post by SoN!c »

Some quotes on this:
hjelp wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2026 6:44 am I think one can narrow it down a bit. I divide in old-players (OP) and not old-players (NOP) disjunct. OP are 2 and NOP are 7. We want to find one OGT or one infected IT.

Probability (both OGT and IT in OP) is ~2.78%
Probability (one each OGT and IT in OP or NOP) is ~38.89%
Probability (both OGT and IT in NOP) is ~58.33%

At least 1 OGT or IT in OP will be 2.78 + 38.89 ~41.67 %
At least 1 OGT or IT in NOP will be 38.89 + 58.33 ~97,22%

Probability to find one of the - at least 1 OGT or IT in OP is ~53.33%
Probability to find one of the - at least 1 OGT or IT in NOP is ~22.86%

So the total chance will always be 2/9 since

41.67 %*53.33% is 2/9
and
97,22%*22.86% is 2/9

I think I got it right.
Hjelp makes all this effort just to fabricate a "53,33% sure case" on Charle but he never uses the best opening of all D2 to land sus away from him and onto somebody else? (The Loose line saying dev correctly deduced Sonic would probably turn out negative).

When i called it out in the open "IT CAN ONLY COME FROM A THING MIND"

Now compare Loose VS Kong on this "30 september numbers" post (the Hjelp stat probabilities):
Loose Canon wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2026 3:33 pm If you are thinking hjelp bunny and king then perhaps you'd tear up my 1 on your bt, 1 off it theory on the basis that hjelp voted you before bunny and bunny has been vote happy.
Bunny would i think have liked hjelp to recruit.
Not sure either if hjelp was the og

By the way i was ok with hjelps probabilities and his posting of them.

Fpd
kongming3 wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2026 2:28 pm Sorry to double post (and I'm Fped and have to ignore those for the moment since I have to go back to work shortly), but this was going to bother me. Think I figured out what you did wrong hjelp, and you can't sneak sonic in to that percentage, particularly without saying anything. It's bad stats, bad practice, and it doesn't make sense to do here since they're not dependent. I would also note again that these stats aren't helpful anyway unless we consider weighting the conversion probabilities properly, which just comes back to talking out and theorizing and making reads anyway.
I can also find a couple of posts where Loose is defending Hjelp like for example this one: (but there are more out there) :
Loose Canon wrote: Tue Sep 29, 2026 1:13 pm I offer this as grounds to be more suspicious of dev than hjelp
What do you say about that crispy Goose?
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Re: The Thing! Day 1

Post by SoN!c »

If Hjelp flips Thing you have an appointment with the FT tonight. Because Mcready is hot tonight and ready to flame
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Re: The Thing! Day 1

Post by SoN!c »

If Hjelp (Nauls) flips scum Nauls last dish is roast Goose with crispy skin:

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Re: The Thing! Day 1

Post by hjelp »

Since I flip Town - you roasted before checking the fridge.
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Re: The Thing! Day 1

Post by SoN!c »

If you flip town then Loose has nothing to worry about tonight.
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Re: The Thing! Day 1

Post by hjelp »

In an "ordinary" game a miss-lynch is less of importance compared to this game. So I suggest we check the fridge first.
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Re: The Thing! Day 1

Post by SoN!c »

Your right about one thing: Your gonna check out
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Re: The Thing! Day 1

Post by hjelp »

Rather not until the fridge is empty - then you can hide in there. You will need it.
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Re: The Thing! Day 1

Post by Loose Canon »

SoN!c wrote: Thu Oct 01, 2026 3:07 pm If Hjelp (Nauls) flips scum Nauls last dish is roast Goose with crispy skin:

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Im not going to duck this.
I have goosepimples.
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Re: The Thing! Day 1

Post by Loose Canon »

i bow to Sonic on the following grounds

a
Humourously done

b
1. Its an outgooseloose play, of an inventive nature, that reminds me I do have those plays in the recesses of my playbook, in a scenario where you have to get inventive and leverage whatever is around you because there is something that can drop out the trees from someone if you make such a play when you have the sole power of undeniable innocence.
2. And there might be something there, you don't know if you don't play it.
3. The downside of it isn't that bad - if Hjelp is infected, and an innocent gets flamed in the night you've done your with a one for one
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Re: The Thing! Day 1

Post by Loose Canon »

SoN!c wrote: Thu Oct 01, 2026 12:25 pm Let me give my reasoning on Hjelp again:

Hjelp’s Day 1 is three cuts.. (Nauls is our cook afterall):

First cut: silence. Opening days he flew under the radar. Almost nothing on the table, no suspect, no case. Just present enough not to be replaced. (Claimed "to be travelling" later).

Second cut: the wagons. Once his name was up as a possible Thing, the quiet ended immediatly and the jumping started.. Traf first, then onto me once votes were already there, “I call your hand,” then off Traf again when the wagon moved. No theory under it. Calling a hand is not a reason. And I was not dodging the BT. I had already said test one of Charle, Traf, or me. The phrase "calling you hand" only works if nobody checks the order. In short : Be on the wagon, as long as the wagon is not on him. Any wagon will do. Panic galore..

Third cut: the reasoning, and only then. When confronted his boarding passes on all those wagons had no valid theory, "The old-player" case and the "30 Sep numbers" and "It's Charle" showed up.
Like he already knew in the second cut who the Things are, so he did not need to spend time on that search.. Some of the third cut theory is decent yes. It is also way too late. Because it only arrived when confronted he had no search theories on the Things. Only then he started to think on that. Again like he never had the need to do so before?

Then for Dessert: He pleas random numbers 2/9 on every seat, but then prefers Charles anyway. . :D A Charle he claims he suspects the most but never voted for BT.

Ofc i could be wrong but boy, if we let all this slip, and we do not lynch Hjelp - just how stupid as a science team are we?
What Sonic wants to know is what I think of the above in his seeing what falls out of the trees outgooselooseplay, and what I think about Hjelp

I liked Hjelps "I call your hand" play when he played it
I also like Sonics - its the timing - post
I can speak for myself here that I feel pressure even when innocent
Sonic doesn't know if Hjelp is infected or not - I might do - but so would any infected
Am I happy about the prospect of my fate being linked to Hjelps - not really - but not that phased by it if its a one for one, I can and will still enjoy the specatator nature of the game.

I liked Hjelps "I call your hand" play when he played it.
I still think there is something tangibly Weird ER? in Dev's volume of posts play leading up to Sonics innocent test
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Re: The Thing! Day 1

Post by SoN!c »

Loose Canon wrote: Thu Oct 01, 2026 1:34 pm

Yes yes, fine (doffs his bill)
When you give the word i'll clap my wings together and vote hjelp
First, liking Hjelp’s “I call your hand” is charming. It is also the easiest of openings but he never spent it on you. Why didn't he called your hand when you said your "goose line"? He threw Traf/kingman, Charle and Bunny, me at any wagon all day for mostly no reason...but left your “Dev correctly deduced Sonic would be negative” line sitting there like a british tee sandwich with sliced roast goose (with Cumberland sauce) or goose liver pâté with sour cherry spread nobody fancied??

He buttered me up with any theory he tought would work to change my mind in "cut 3". Then when i put in bold "THAT CAN ONLY COME FROM A THING MIND" on you it's suddenly a different bird???

Seems, in the end, he only buttered your crispy goose skin by not touching the most obvious tell of the entire day, so it will flame very nicely tonight?

Time for you to vote Hjelp. Afterall: If you are so sure he is town you have nothing too worry about ey loosy?

(A man who knows the sandwich is ham does not hover over the plate like a goose at a funeral right?) :D
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Re: The Thing! Day 1

Post by homer_jay »

hjelp wrote: Thu Oct 01, 2026 3:40 pm In an "ordinary" game a miss-lynch is less of importance compared to this game. So I suggest we check the fridge first.
we already checked the fridge. no info on any geese. all we found out is that sonic wasn't in there. unfortunately, we don't get to check again so have to go based on what we can see with the door closed.

in the charle vs hjelp battle, charle comes across as more confident in his position and hjelp appears to be trying anything to shift the focus to others.
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