Soaps Role Madness 2! Day 3

[Extreme Ways]

@EW, let's say we lynch Kong. Would you still go along with your prosecution?

Not Charle but Max.

I have no clue why we would lynch Kong when Max is rolewise quite optimal whether we hit or miss.

[Extreme Ways]

Like if Charle really is town phantom, then even if we get into a 1v1 situation as town we still tie the game.

[Ragian]

@EW, let's say we lynch Kong. Would you still go along with your prosecution?

Not Charle but Max.

I have no clue why we would lynch Kong when Max is rolewise quite optimal whether we hit or miss.

I would because I think he's scum. That sounds optimal to me.

But I've noted your refusal to answer the question.

[Devante]

Yeah well, Kong, it's you posing as a protective role that has me annoyed.

Why?

[Ragian]

Well, I'm a town protective role.

[Loose Canon]

Wow - need to process that bombshell rag.

I will post where I was at and was going to post before reading that.

I was at:

Ew is 30% likely scum (a bit of paranoia in that so maybe 25% if I discount that) but whatever % then has a 90% prob of town loss if Ew is scum and go with plan

Max 40% likely scum (higher activity+ better play paranoia in those odds too)

Kong 50% likely scum


Rags bombshell not factored into the above.

[Extreme Ways]

@EW, let's say we lynch Kong. Would you still go along with your prosecution?

Not Charle but Max.

I have no clue why we would lynch Kong when Max is rolewise quite optimal whether we hit or miss.

I would because I think he's scum. That sounds optimal to me.

But I've noted your refusal to answer the question.

The answer in bold is what your answer is.

I would still go ahead with the prosecution, but instead prosecute Max instead of Chare.

[Ragian]

Oh, I'm sorry. Didn't understand. Thanks for clarifying.

[Ragian]

Three days left.

In terms of scumminess, I'd prefer lynching Kong. As mentioned too many times, I don't like how he has carried himself D2. However, Max has gone AWOL. We've seen earlier how an endgame Max - even if town - might f*ck things up.

If Max hasn't posted relating to the things asked of him Sunday, I'm okay with voting Max.

Where are you, Charle?

[Loose Canon]

I've processed in my mind Rags claim that he has a town protective role a bit more now.
To me it takes away some but not all of the likelihood that Kong is Town.
Rags postings do make a Rag/Kong scum partnership unlikely though.

With that processing from my perspective my probabilities of scumminess are now as follows;

Kong 55%
Rag 40%
Max 40%
Charle 40%
EW 30%
Dev 15%
Me (from my perspective) 0%

[Loose Canon]

At the start of the game there was a cop, I'm claim Jack, and there's other town powers out there but some (including mine from everyone elses perspective) have to be false.
Even with just cop there has to be some equalizing pretty powerful scum powers hidden from us.
I don't prefer a plan that relies on a combination of known and believed/claimed town powers in a situation where scum powers are completely unknown, VS a likelihood of being scum basis for lynching today. - I just don't.

I have to knock Kongs towniness down a bit but still recognise I only put him at 55% probability of being scum after I do so;

Kong has played mafia games on other forums.
We haven't seen him play as scum from the outset on this forum.
His play this game is different from his plays on this forum when he's been town.

Is he as town trying to copy EWs previous town brilliance?
Is he as scum copying a previous scum plays (his or someone elses on a different forum) getting out of a counterclaim hole?
To me both are equally likely.

Kong is at 55% scum probability to me.

[Loose Canon]

If approaching deadline there are 3 other votes on Kong I will hammer Kong.
If approaching deadline there are 3 votes on Max but 2 or less on Kong, I will hammer Max.

Deadline = < 24 hours for me, and within that as long as I think I can wait in the hammer Max scenario before deadline hits.

4 of you could make what I intend to do irrelevant.

[Ragian]

So, here's the deal. If I were to vote based on gut, I'd vote for Kong. Max just makes it really difficult...

I'll go boozing now...

[Extreme Ways]

vote Maxleod
Idk Max hasn't given us anything about his role/actions other than the name even after being prodded by Rag.

I really hope game is just easy and tbh I kinda dont believe a random role madness game to be balanced

[Devante]

I'm between max and kong right now but lening more on kong so VOTE KONG

[Ragian]

What's the count?

[Charle]

Hi guys, I am sorry .... been extremely busy with a huge project - Working on a documentary series involving a lot of my work throughout Africa. I honestly do not even have time to read through this now, but I know there is a deadline tomorrow I think. My time zone will give me the chance to go through things tomorrow if needed.

For now I still keep my vote as is for the only reason that Kong was caught lying and when I quickly scan through the items it looks like a huge campaign to try and get out of this.

[Extreme Ways]

The people voting Kong - I guess I understand Rag (though my teamguess now is 2 out of Rag Charle Max).

For the others, whats the hole in the plan?

[DirtyDishSoap]

Vote Count!

(3) Kong - Max, Charle, Dev
(2) Max - Kong, EW

With 7 alive, it takes 4 for a lynch!

[Extreme Ways]

The people voting Kong - I guess I understand Rag (though my teamguess now is 2 out of Rag Charle Max).

For the others, whats the hole in the plan?

oops I hadnt realised Rag hadnt voted yet.

So scratch that guess? Does seem a little bit like scum is trying to wiggle out of it but Rag is also the only one to try to pick holes into the plan I think so seems more good-faith than say Charle

[Devante]

What's the deadline? Isn't it coming up right away. I don't have much time today so which way we going as if I need to change my vote need to make sure I have time to do it

[Loose Canon]

If I kill tonight I have to assume it will either be blocked or worse deflected.
Best case we currently have 5 town Vs 2 scum but could easily be 4 v 2 v 1.
Scum will kill tonight so town is down best case to 4 and if we now lynch max for the consolation prize more than the scumminess town is down best case to 3.
I'll hammer Kong for most scummy instead.

That's my argument ew

[DirtyDishSoap]

What's the deadline? Isn't it coming up right away. I don't have much time today so which way we going as if I need to change my vote need to make sure I have time to do it

Tomorrow at 10pm -5UTC.

[Extreme Ways]

If I kill tonight I have to assume it will either be blocked or worse deflected.
Best case we currently have 5 town Vs 2 scum but could easily be 4 v 2 v 1.
Scum will kill tonight so town is down best case to 4 and if we now lynch max for the consolation prize more than the scumminess town is down best case to 3.
I'll hammer Kong for most scummy instead.

That's my argument ew

Why do you know scum will kill tonight?

The whole premise of the plan is that my action blocks any night actions, including the mafia meeting which includes the factional kill.

[Loose Canon]

Ok good point Ew re no factional kill - if you are prosecutor.

In my head I've got you as 30% probability of being scum.
In that scenario in my head doesn't that equate to 30% instant loss with the plan?

Also I think you are overaccreditting Kongs likelihood of being town.
I don't think I'm alone in that.

Would the equation change for you IF you too thought 55% likely Kong is scum?