The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump

[jusplay4fun]

I have to say that Saxi and I aware of these changes and had a handle on the swing of the election toward Trump some 3-4 weeks ago:
https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=237819&start=1575

I would not be so reckless to predict a Trump win, and IT WAS close in MANY key states.

https://www.axios.com/2024/11/06/swing-state-results-vote-shifts-over-time

Here is some Good Analysis with COOL maps:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2024/nov/06/the-key-swings-that-handed-trump-the-white-house-a-visual-analysis

Here is an important quote from the above source:

The Republican candidate managed to win by edging out gains across the board, but as important is the fact that Harris was not able to muster the necessary support in Democratic strongholds.

same source:

When looking at the swing states – which Trump may still sweep – the data shows how Republicans managed to gain vote share in rural and urban areas and this outweighed small Democratic gains elsewhere.

and more:

The first big Republican win was Georgia.

Biden won the state with less than 12,000 votes in 2020, and Harris has now lost by more than 100,000 votes.

There were Democratic hopes that Georgia’s Black population – who form a majority in counties such as Hancock and Clayton – would help Harris hold the state.

Harris did not achieve big swings in these areas in Georgia.

And what about PA?

Republicans gained in almost every county – showing just how he managed to gain support across every community.

This meant he ended up winning by more than 100,000 votes.

Almost every Pennsylvania county shifted to Trump

Popular count:

67,961,957 votes (47.6%)
72,647,685 votes (50.9%)

from the AP

This was NOT as CLOSE as I had expected; the polls were wrong again. It was NOT as close as many polls predicted.

And I will credit Newsweek; they saw this coming 3-4 weeks ago. And Saxi was right, too.

And, lastly, for now, President Trump must deliver to many who voted for him. I pray that Trump will fulfill many of his promises.

One can feel the seismic shift:

Electoral College Map Projector Flips All Battleground States to Donald Trump

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/electoral-college-map-projector-flips-all-battleground-states-to-donald-trump/ar-AA1svmXx?ocid=winp2fptaskbar&cvid=cd05bdb4c18948b58c02a316bf45e32f&ei=26

Newsweek
Donald Trump Flips Wisconsin In New Poll
Former President Donald Trump is winning in every battleground state, according to a new Electoral College map projection.

RealClearPolitics' polling tracker shows that, with no toss-up states, Trump is set to claim all seven swing states. It comes after Wisconsin, which Vice President Kamala Harris had previously been leading since the beginning of August, flipped Republican, with the former president now 0.1 points ahead.

Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania also flipped in favor of Trump in the past two weeks, with the former president 0.5 points ahead in Nevada and Pennsylvania and 0.9 points ahead in Michigan, per the tracker.

Trump had already been in the lead in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina since at least September. He is currently between 0.9 and 1.4 points ahead in all three of these states.

[Votanic]

And I will credit Newsweek; they saw this coming 3-4 weeks ago. And Saxi was right, too.

...and I was right too.

[saxitoxin]

INCREDIBLE

Starr County, Texas --- population is 95% Hispanic and it's voted Democrats in every election for the last 132 years ... until The New Age of Trump.

In 2016, Clinton won Starr County by 60 points.
In 2020, Biden won Starr County by 5 points.
In 2024, Trump won Starr County by 16 points.

A 76 point swing in 8 years!

https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2024/11 ... 100-years/

[HitRed]

God Bless Texas!

[jusplay4fun]

INCREDIBLE

Starr County, Texas --- population is 95% Hispanic and it's voted Democrats in every election for the last 132 years ... until The New Age of Trump.

In 2016, Clinton won Starr County by 60 points.
In 2020, Biden won Starr County by 5 points.
In 2024, Trump won Starr County by 16 points.

A 76 point swing in 8 years!

https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2024/11 ... 100-years/

Yes, I think I heard this from two sources, being such an incredible turn around. Not all Hispanics favor Illegal Immigration across the US-Mexico border. And located in it is Rio Grande City, on the Rio Grande River, and it is near I-2, too.

The county population is almost entirely Hispanic or Latino. With 97.7% of its population identifying as such, it is the county with the highest proportion of Hispanics[4] in the continental United States.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starr_County,_Texas

[saxitoxin]

Starr County's Hispanic voters say they voted Trump because of (a) 300% increase in the price of fajitas under Biden, (b) Biden's threats to end oil drilling, (c) Kamala insisting on referring to them as LatinX, (d) gangs crossing the Rio Grande.

[HitRed]

Starr County's Hispanic voters say they voted Trump because of (a) 300% increase in the price of fajitas under Biden, (b) Biden's threats to end oil drilling, (c) Kamala insisting on referring to them as LatinX, (d) gangs crossing the Rio Grande.

+1

[saxitoxin]

+1 for BARRON TRUMP! Apparently, according to what I was reading, any new media bookings the campaign wanted to make had to get approval by Barron.

[jusplay4fun]

Its over guys, even if the Selzer poll is off by 4-5 points, which she never was, youre effed.
And when that poll is remotly right youre not only effed, youre gloriously effed.

On top of that, Kansas only +5 Trump (won by 15 in 20) and Ohio +3 (won by 8 )
Theres something in motion you cannot comprehend.
Cant wait for the tears tho.

Good prediction, pee-mac. We can certainly count on you to offer more astute comments and insights in 2028. Until then, GOOD RIDDANCE, troll. I think we know who's predictions are effed; NOT MINE. Your tears can join those of other Kamala supporters and Jimmy Kimmel's.

[saxitoxin]

[jusplay4fun]

Updates:

Election 2024 recap: An updated tally on final House races as they're called
Democrats had 199 House seats while Republicans had claimed 212 by Friday evening, according to the Associated Press, with 218 needed for control.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/11/08/election-2024-updates-house-of-representatives-control/76125967007/

The final tally for the US Senate is not yet determined, as of now.

US Senate results
From ⁦The Associated Press (AP)
DEM 46

GOP 53

[jusplay4fun]

for my Canadian Friends:

[HitRed]

Podcasts > Liberal Media

[saxitoxin]

LOL have you all seen this video? It was recorded by Arlene Battishill, a political science professor at Temple University, the morning of the election.

In it, she recounts how she belittled some poor grocery store clerk for having the audacity to suggest it was going to be a close race. She's speaking with the same dripping condescension of PMac --- just chortling at how stupid the peasants are for thinking it's not going to be a landslide win for Kamala.

"I told him -- I'M A POLITICAL ANALYST. I'm telling you right now, the numbers are there. She's taking this election. And then I said to him - HAHAHAHAHA! - you realize you wasted your vote? HAHAHAHA! And that I didn't care?!?! HAHAHAH! And then I just walked out with my champagne! HAHAHA!"

https://x.com/ImMeme0/status/1854508108682314168

I tried to find the original video on her channel but apparently she's taken it down now. It's just a work of art.

[jusplay4fun]

Update:

President-elect Donald Trump has won Arizona, the final state to be called in the 2024 presidential election, according to a race call by the Associated Press.

The Arizona win marks a full Trump sweep of the seven swing states, and brings his total electoral vote count to 312, with 226 for Vice President Harris.

Former President Donald Trump arrives to speak during an election night event in West Palm Beach, Fla., in the early morning hours on Wednesday.

Trump secured the 270 votes necessary to become president-elect with the call of Wisconsin early Wednesday morning.

With his victory in Arizona, Trump has won back all of the states Biden flipped to the Democrats’ column in 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. He also flipped Nevada, which was called early Saturday morning.

The Associated Press has not yet called the U.S. Senate race in Arizona between Republican candidate Kari Lake and Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego, a race to replace outgoing Sen. Kyrsten Sinema. It's the last U.S. Senate race to be called in the 2024 election.

https://www.npr.org/2024/11/10/g-s1-33609/donald-trump-wins-arizona

and the House of Representatives:

Control of the House is still too close to call, according to the Associated Press. There remain outstanding votes in California, where there are multiple competitive races.

Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win the majority. (...)

If that all holds, Democrats would be +6 and Republicans +5 for a D+1 net gain in this election.

That would mean, Republicans would keep the House very narrowly with a three-seat majority, which is one less than their current margin.

https://www.npr.org/2024/11/07/g-s1-33301/2024-house-seats-undecided-control

Updates:

Election 2024 recap: An updated tally on final House races as they're called
Democrats had 199 House seats while Republicans had claimed 212 by Friday evening, according to the Associated Press, with 218 needed for control.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/11/08/election-2024-updates-house-of-representatives-control/76125967007/

The final tally for the US Senate is not yet determined, as of now.

US Senate results
From ⁦The Associated Press (AP)
DEM 46

GOP 53

[jusplay4fun]

I read this in an editorial this morning:

Harris lost because she was insecure and inauthentic. She could not articulate her vision and plan for the country, nor could she distance herself from an unpopular president. She avoided taking responsibility and was viewed as too culturally progressive to many Americans.

I also think that the Dems felt that calling Trump a fascist (bad man, boogie man, a threat to Democracy, etc.) and that Kamala is the champion of abortion would be ENOUGH. Obviously that is not true, at least not to most American voters in 2024. Remember, Trump won EVERY one of the Seven Swing States and the National Popular vote, too.

And voters thought that Biden was NOT a good President, that Bidenomics did not work for most Americans, and that inflation, the Economy, and the border were all losing issues for the Democrats. I think too that many Dems simply did NOT vote as they were not enthused about Kamala or Walz. Bad policies and bad candidates led to their defeat. Liberal Dems need to stop blaming the voters and everyone BUT THEMSELVES for this loss.

[jusplay4fun]

Election hypocrisy:

Pennsylvania Democrats show their true disdain for democracy in Bob Casey-Dave McCormick race

Democratic officials in Pennsylvania are finally saying out it loud: Election denial is an unconscionable, existential threat to democracy — unless a Republican wins, in which case it’s fine to ignore the law to overturn it.

Commissioners in four Pennsylvania counties have been counting ballots disqualified by the state’s top court in a bid to overturn the results in the Senate race between Democratic Sen. Bob Casey and GOP challenger Dave McCormick.

As of Monday, McCormick was still up by tens of thousands of votes; the Associated Press called the race for him last Thursday, yet Casey refused to concede.

And the election boards have been busy trying to save him.

No matter that the Keystone State’s Supreme Court (five Democrats, two Republicans, incidentally) twice ruled before Election Day that ballots are invalid if they lack a correct date on the return envelopes.

“We all know that precedent by a court doesn’t matter anymore in this country, and people violate laws any time they want,” whined Diane Ellis-Marseglia, a Bucks County commissioner. “There’s nothing more important than counting votes.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/pennsylvania-democrats-show-their-true-disdain-for-democracy-in-bob-casey-dave-mccormick-race/ar-AA1ukb4d?ocid=BingNewsSerp

[jusplay4fun]

A classic, re-do:

[jusplay4fun]

I am beginning to change my mind about Trump. The dislike for Biden is increasing so much that Trump MAY BEAT Biden if both are the nominees. If the Democrats nominate someone else (and NOT Kamala) they may have a chance to beat Trump.

All Polls (those things saxi loves to cite) show that Trump is some 40 points ahead of anyone else on the Republican side. Let's see what happens in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina before declaring Trump the Republican nominee.

The problem is that both Biden and Trump have HUGE Negative association ("baggage"), so this 2024 election for POTUS could be quite interesting. People are not buying "Bidenomics" and there is growing dissatisfaction about the open Southern (US-Mexican) border. The situation with Gaza has not helped Biden, either. People are beginning to blame Biden for the inflation. I have already posted much about the negatives for Trump.

Bidenomics is working! Low unemployment, inflation going down to levels that are the lowest throughout the industrial countries and the start of loosening of the prime rate in 2024

Trump is the choice of candidates by the DNC. Trump is the albatross around the GOP! Have you heard the dangerous shit spewing out of Trump? Biden will win and with his coattails, democrats will win the Senate and the House of Representatives.

Where is the economic platform of the Republican do nothings? At least you have the second coming of Moses with House Speaker Johnson and God himself will crown Johnson as Moses!

Amen!

Here are some of the wonderful predictions by pee-rat. YEAH, we can trust what pee-rat predicts. Well done, Pack Rat; you are sooo smart and prescient.