The unholy story of Count Giure "Grando" Stregone TOWN WINS!

[Extreme Ways]

@Charle, you're saying that Kong is flat out lying about his letter(s?), right?

I consider you and Charle to be a difference check.

[Ragian]

Cool. I don't understand what that means...

[Extreme Ways]

Cool. I don't understand what that means...

One is villager, the other is not.

[Charle]

@Charle, you're saying that Kong is flat out lying about his letter(s?), right?

I think so Ragain, because the following:
1. "B" clearly mentioned that only I and 2 others will receive letters, but I am the only one that will receive it by PM.
2. Because the others will receive them somewhere else and not by PM, it can only be the Masons who receive them on the Chat Platform mentioned in the "Additional Rulles No 1" in the first post - EW can confirm this.
3. Kong never argued the fact that I confronted him that he was lying about the letter received by PM.
4. EW could easily pointed a finger to me if I was making these things up??

Then further Strike asked me to check Fusi's full history which I did. I came back with a result of that "Vannilaiser" - there is no way on earth that I would have known that it even exist, not even to mention in this game!

I am likely to be lynched now, so we will loose another townie and maybe some important info tomorrow if the scum do not kill me tonight. I have a strong feeling that there are scum present in the "Vote Charle" list, saving them the kill tonight and can concentrate somewhere else.

[Extreme Ways]

To elaborate on Charle:

Vampires get vampire spidersenses
Wolves get wolf instincts
Masons get bishop letters.

I think Kong is somewhat linked to masons, backup mason or smth.

[Ewebasher]

Octal 31 is 3*8+1 and decimal 25 is 2*10+5...with town, scum and alive players in there... with the difference between 31 and 25 being 6..

Halloween will be the dead dancing ball you do not wanna miss out!

The dead will return to haunt town and nothing will be what it seems!

[Loose Canon]

This is where I'm at;

Charle is likely scum but Rag is better lynch target for following reasons;

Charle unlikely to have known about vanillaisation without a real archeology report - doesn;t make Charle town though - just make it incredible he made up vanillaisation on Rag.
Rag not vanillaissed as per report on Fusi but Strike Vanillaised.
Strike unlikely to be a scum faction going into N2 based on message to kong N1.
What would motive of rival scum be to switch a likely town with an unknown—I can't see any.
Motive for scum to switch own scum with likely town - I can see - designed to put Rag out of frame - as I think EW was pointing to.
(I can see a motive for a rival scum to switch an unknown with an unknown as a means of sussing out rival scum to then kill - but doesn't make sense to me to switch unknown with likely town.)

I think as I was first on Charle (likely scum) I need to see 3 votes on Rag (better scum lynch candidate) before I switch, otherwise scum(s) can drive a mislynch up the middle.

Also waiting to see if flaws in reasoning can be pointed out.

[Extreme Ways]

This is where I'm at;

Charle is likely scum but Rag is better lynch target for following reasons;

Charle unlikely to have known about vanillaisation without a real archeology report - doesn;t make Charle town though - just make it incredible he made up vanillaisation on Rag.
Rag not vanillaissed as per report on Fusi but Strike Vanillaised.
Strike unlikely to be a scum faction going into N2 based on message to kong N1.
What would motive of rival scum be to switch a likely town with an unknown—I can't see any.
Motive for scum to switch own scum with likely town - I can see - designed to put Rag out of frame - as I think EW was pointing to.
(I can see a motive for a rival scum to switch an unknown with an unknown as a means of sussing out rival scum to then kill - but doesn't make sense to me to switch unknown with likely town.)

I think as I was first on Charle (likely scum) I need to see 3 votes on Rag (better scum lynch candidate) before I switch, otherwise scum(s) can drive a mislynch up the middle.

Also waiting to see if flaws in reasoning can be pointed out.

I think archeologist makes way more sense as a town role than as a scum role. Scum often have a role cop, to learn the role of someone during the night.

The fact that we have someone vanillaised that is not Rag, makes me think Charle is town. Charle had no reason to say who was vanillaised, he doesn't win any credibility. It's not normal practice for a gravedigger-role to know the past night actions of someone.

[Extreme Ways]

I'll leave a legacy somewhere tonight, I'm probably either dying or converted.

If I'm alive and nobody claims a protect on me... rely on my mason buddy to confirm me to still be alive, as I would not be able to hold both weapons as scum.

[Ewebasher]

show

Get your costume and hats out boys! Its mafia time! HALLOWEEN is near!!

show

!!!

[kongming3]

I'm still pretty hesitant to switch, given that the whole rationale for voting ragian is dependent on Charle being town, and the same rationale and more would indict Charle first instead. That said, regardless of who is lynched I think Charle needs to use his day shot today as in very very soon, because he's in the line of fire to either be lynched or killed tonight if he's really town - now that he's exposed his potential vig shot he needs to use it and share who it was used upon at once, or lose it forever (I also think if he hasn't done so by day's end it's just even more likely he's scum and didn't see the point in continuing in the sham).

[Votanic]

I'll admit it. I've kinda lost the thread here...

I'm trying to make my way through an analytical re-read. ...I'm even taking notes.

In the meantime, Unvote.

[Loose Canon]

I don't think the rationale for lynching Rag is dependant upon Charle being town - if it is I've got something very wrong.
I think Charle told the truth about what he found as archeologist - yes - but whilst EW thinks that makes him town to me it doesn't.
The vampire result I got on Charle hasn't been explained away - but its not conclusive either.

For me the evidence against Rag is why switch Rag and Strike for any other reason than to make Rag look innocent - and its because I can't see a motive for a scum switch between Rag and Strike for any other reason than to make Rag look innocent.

I still need more votes to be on Rag before I switch from Charle though.

[kongming3]

Yeah I see what you're saying, but the basis for thinking there had to have been a switch between Rag and Strike is because of what Charle said about fusi. And the whole Charle getting a guilty result under investigation remains, with his best case scenario defense being the same as what would make Ragian potentially suspicious - Charle was either just purely caught out as scum, a reasonably likely outcome, or he just happened to have scum trying to redirect things away from him for some strange reason which also happened to land on scum and also he happened to be investigated by you on that very night but he's secretly somehow town. There's a lot of conditionals and strange rationales required to excuse Charle from his guilty result, while Occam's razor would have me think it's very likely to just be that he really is scum. My main concern would be that you're completely lying about your investigation result, but I don't feel like that's super likely for now.

[Votanic]

Could somebody whip up a flow chart/timeline for all this, ...#so helpful.
It might require some animation and hyperlinks. Maybe a full slideshow.

[strike wolf]

Okay so I've had a lot to think about.

All I know for certain is that 1. Charle and Ragian are almost certainly not an aligned scum team. They could be scum/town, town/scum, town/town or even wolf/vamp but an aligned scum team either does not make the fake vanillaise claim to hit Ragian or would have one back up the other. Only way that fits is if Charle rushed to say that Ragian had been vanillaised without checking w/Ragian first and Ragian knowing it would backfire then denied it to save his own skin but thats very unlikely in a game where there is a day chat. Even less likely when you consider that EW suggested that the mod has made him aware of certain actions that affected his mason partner. Assuming same can be said for scum, then a scum pair Charle/Ragian would already know if they were hit by the vanilla ray. 2. Charle claimed Fusi has a Miller role which seems to contradict the part where he visited the Miller according to scene.

Charle is town line of thought:

1. Loose is lying or there has been some manipulation that's caused Charle to appear guilty. Framer/Busdriver/redirection role/Unreliable cop are all possible.
2. Archeologist receives action result for who the player intended to visit not who actually ended up being visited.
3. Another redirecting role on top of EWs deflection and the possible redirector involved with Charle's guilty result exists.
4. Kongs claim about N1 is either a lie or somehow otherwise inaccurate. If Kong was lying scum, how has he been right about me and EW when there is another scum faction in play?

Charle is scum line:

1. Loose is telling the truth and the result was not tampered.
2. He believed that Ragian was vanillaised and not me. This is possible if the Vanillaiser is charle/his scum partner and he attempted to target Ragian. Would still require some busdriver or redirection to have affected the result.
3. Kong's claim from D2 still fits.
4. There is ultimately one less role manipulation needed to make everything fit.

Occam's Razor would suggest Charles guilt. EW believing he's innocent gsve me pause because EW is all but proven town at this point and I respect his opinions but I am just not reading the given facts the same way as EW. The Charle scum route requires less roundabout reasoning to get to the place were at and I disagree with the notion that Charle didn't have to come forward with a name for the vanillaising. As long as he was right that it had been Ragian (which again is information he could know if he or his scum partner were the Vanillaiser) then Ragian confirming he had been vanillaised would have given him a lot of town credit. It may have been the one way he avoids a lynch after a guilty result except there was an unexpected action manipulation that he could not account for.

Vote Charle

[Charle]

To elaborate on Charle:

Vampires get vampire spidersenses
Wolves get wolf instincts
Masons get bishop letters.

I think Kong is somewhat linked to masons, backup mason or smth.

EW, I must admit, I missed this. If the above is true (you obviously got it somewhere and did not suck it out of your thumb), a lot makes sense now. I wish I picked it up earlier. It is now very obvious who is the other mason (which I will not mention for town's sake), we know who are bodyguard(s), leaving a few players and making Loose's comment about Ragian making more sense.

So my final vote for tonight will then be:

Unvote, Vote Ragian

[Charle]

Okay so I've had a lot to think about.

Vote Charle

Note to Mods: the above vote cannot count, it should be red and not brown!!!

[Votanic]

I really liked strike's post, but before I let it feedback on my early belief, I decided to reread the N2/D3 posts. ...I only went from Page 19 to Page 22 before I had to stop.
There is is just too much weirdness and undocumented tidbits being posted, ...from a lot of people but most notably from EW.

I don't feel bad about being confused. I'm reading with decent comprehension, but this is an Extreme Bastard Game (EBG).

Starting this analyis at the top, with the mod and game design.
Sonic has almost created a new type of game that is a little bit Mafia, and a little bit RPG, but is mostly just crazy-plot storytime.
He has shoveled heaps of highly detailed bastard-BS info directly onto the main thread, there is no reason to think he isn't also heaping more shovelfuls into each player's personal roles and intel.

Btw, this analysis is not a damning criticism. A spooky horror-movie story with a non-sensical plot is great fun, especially around Halloween.
But make no mistake, this set-up is more tale-telling than game-playing.
If every single thing can be a lie or red herring, then we have no real way of deducing the truth.
The only reason lying isn't this bad in RL is because we have many more lines of evidence than just words on a forum thread.

Okay, now going down a level into the actual game-story.
Everybody is trying to add up every contradictory role/action factoid and find a complex pattern of (highly coincidental) deflections that will make sense, ...but again, this is an EBG game, it doesn't require a complex puzzle pattern that fits together, just a lot of crazy lies, ...and the crazy lies don't have to be made up by the players.
Sonic, the game's master tailor, would doubtlessy find great pleasure in stitching up elaborate and finely detailed lies, bespoke for each player and situation.

The problem with mod-directed lies is that whomever we lynch, it isn't going to prove anything about another player's true alignment. The players might not even know that their own intel and reoles are partly/completely lies. Again, we are all existing somewhere between actors reading lines and actual players in a game.

Okay enough Theory, time for Action:
We need to lynch somebody (Charle?) and then we all need to observe EW chop his head of in broad daylight in front of everybody with that damn axe.
Actually, EW should do that with every corpse we can find. Traf (first role), Fusi, etc. DO THAT RIGHT NOW!

Vote Charle God help me....

FPed by Charle.
That hue isn't brown, it's the color of dried blood.

[Charle]

That said, regardless of who is lynched I think Charle needs to use his day shot today as in very very soon, because he's in the line of fire to either be lynched or killed tonight if he's really town - now that he's exposed his potential vig shot he needs to use it and share who it was used upon at once, or lose it forever (I also think if he hasn't done so by day's end it's just even more likely he's scum and didn't see the point in continuing in the sham).

I used my day PM by investigating Fusi, I can only investigate tomorrow again (we have 2 left). So who you want to waste the only vig shot on??

[Votanic]

That said, regardless of who is lynched I think Charle needs to use his day shot today as in very very soon, because he's in the line of fire to either be lynched or killed tonight if he's really town - now that he's exposed his potential vig shot he needs to use it and share who it was used upon at once, or lose it forever (I also think if he hasn't done so by day's end it's just even more likely he's scum and didn't see the point in continuing in the sham).

I used my day PM by investigating Fusi, I can only investigate tomorrow again (we have 2 left). So who you want to waste the only vig shot on??

This is a very good question. Let's debate this.
Also, will the mod publicly confirm that this vig power is in operation,..or will an unsuccessful hit (that might be faked...) just look like nothing?

The idea that this power would be given to the striga himself is sickly amusing, ...and can't be fully discounted because ...Sonic.

[Loose Canon]

I don't think Charle is NOT GUILTY - so its not an either/or, but a which is best/more certain argument for me.
I think both Charle and Ragian CAN be guilty

The why would Strike and Rag be switched for any other reason than make Rag look innocent argument weighs heavily on me.

The only thing that is making me pause before vote switching to Rag is a line of logic that says Charle lied about who Fusi vanillaised.
Charle could have picked a number of players to pin any such lie / trap on.
Then it would follow that Rag fell into any such lie/trap by saying no he was not Vanillaised.
But then saying yes he had been vanillaised would have trapped Rag too.
Its the idea that Charle may have as scum set up a near perfect lie/trap that catches innocent and guilty alike that is weighing upon me, now.

I'm still pausing....

[Extreme Ways]

That said, regardless of who is lynched I think Charle needs to use his day shot today as in very very soon, because he's in the line of fire to either be lynched or killed tonight if he's really town - now that he's exposed his potential vig shot he needs to use it and share who it was used upon at once, or lose it forever (I also think if he hasn't done so by day's end it's just even more likely he's scum and didn't see the point in continuing in the sham).

I used my day PM by investigating Fusi, I can only investigate tomorrow again (we have 2 left). So who you want to waste the only vig shot on??

This is a very good question. Let's debate this.
Also, will the mod publicly confirm that this vig power is in operation,..or will an unsuccessful hit (that might be faked...) just look like nothing?

The idea that this power would be given to the striga himself is sickly amusing, ...and can't be fully discounted because ...Sonic.

Let's not debate this and use your dayvig shot asap so we will have a mod come in chat saying you were using this ability, proving you are town. Or at least not vampire.

Who you use it on is your discretion, though I would advise to not use it on someone who is widely townread nor on Rag

[Loose Canon]

Extreme, Charle using his shot with mod confirmation wouldn't actually prove he isn't a vampire.
It would just be a cover story/ability for Charle to disguise that he is a vampire.
Elaborate cover story yes, but we are in an elaborate game.

[Extreme Ways]

Extreme, Charle using his shot with mod confirmation wouldn't actually prove he isn't a vampire.
It would just be a cover story/ability for Charle to disguise that he is a vampire.
Elaborate cover story yes, but we are in an elaborate game.

It would be, but it would help in occam's razoring his alignment.