Friends & Enemies & Enemies & That Other Guy - Wolves Won

[PepeAtila]

Pepe, if you are town there is a 1/3 chance Sonic is town from your perspective, and it would mean the masons managed to pick the only two vanilla left for us to lynch between.

From my perspective there are 2 scums and 2 towns and I think the probabilities are:
adding up to 200% if I had to bet:
-Max 80% scum
-PMC 60% scum
-Sonic 30% scum
-DDS 30% scum
-LC 0% scum

So for me Sonic has 2/3 chance to be town.

There's a few unusual voting stances that have been taken recently.

I want us all to consider what if anything they might signify.

Whilst I favour lynching Pepe, I would urge everyone to pause and not risk a lynching just now. I'd actually like unvoting while we do so.

So by example

unvote pepeatilla

There was no risk of lynching, even knowing that you want to lynch me, I said that I was not going to hammer Sonic, only you or himself could hammer Sonic.

[pmchugh]

Pepe, if you are town there is a 1/3 chance Sonic is town from your perspective, and it would mean the masons managed to pick the only two vanilla left for us to lynch between.

From my perspective there are 2 scums and 2 towns and I think the probabilities are:
adding up to 200% if I had to bet:
-Max 80% scum
-PMC 60% scum
-Sonic 30% scum
-DDS 30% scum
-LC 0% scum

So for me Sonic has 2/3 chance to be town.

There's a few unusual voting stances that have been taken recently.

I want us all to consider what if anything they might signify.

Whilst I favour lynching Pepe, I would urge everyone to pause and not risk a lynching just now. I'd actually like unvoting while we do so.

So by example

unvote pepeatilla

There was no risk of lynching, even knowing that you want to lynch me, I said that I was not going to hammer Sonic, only you or himself could hammer Sonic.

What do you think of sonic saying that mafia should be wanting to lynch town today? Do you agree or disagree? How does it affect your opinion on Max being 80% scum? Does he fit the profile of what you would expect scum to do?

[Loose Canon]

After Charles clarification that it is bad sport at least for active players to engage with dead players and vice versa to affect the outcome of the game, I think that would clear an obstacle I would have in voting Sonic / opportunity perhaps to persuade others to switch to Pepe.

My preferred choice is still Pepe.

I need to read the last couple of pages again when I get home from work just in case there's anything, and probably give it at least (its my football night Thursdays and I'm going to a wedding Friday and Saturday) another 24 hours in case there's any movements off Sonic towards Pepe.

(Also it would be bad form to perhaps turn up to the wedding in a coffin.)

[SoN!c]

After Charles clarification that it is bad sport at least for active players to engage with dead players and vice versa to affect the outcome of the game, I think that would clear an obstacle I would have in voting Sonic / opportunity perhaps to persuade others to switch to Pepe.

My preferred choice is still Pepe.

I need to read the last couple of pages again when I get home from work just in case there's anything, and probably give it at least (its my football night Thursdays and I'm going to a wedding Friday and Saturday) another 24 hours in case there's any movements off Sonic towards Pepe.

(Also it would be bad form to perhaps turn up to the wedding in a coffin.)

Lets have 48 hours break then.? No votes during the next 48 hours. We can all reconnect or deconnect on fixed/unfixed ideas?

[PepeAtila]

What do you think of sonic saying that mafia should be wanting to lynch town today? Do you agree or disagree? How does it affect your opinion on Max being 80% scum? Does he fit the profile of what you would expect scum to do?

I am not sure about if it is better or not for mafia to lynch a town but perhaps it is true, because I think in the 9 cases you did develop (I think you did) they get more probabilities. (If I get time I will try to calculate the probabilities with your 9 cases) even if LC lynches me there is a chance that town will win.

However I really don't care what mafia should want, I think we should focus on lynching a scum.

About Max the numbers are just numbers, but
first I said he is the person who participate the least .. for me it would be unfair for him to win if he is mafia.
Second he wanted to know who the second Mason is.
Third when he did vote recently he did it against DDS.
(that's not too much, but more than the others)

[pmchugh]

I agree we want to find scum, the reason for trying to understand their strategy is to find scum. Like, sonic made it clear he thinks scum should be aiming for a town mislynch and he has been playing in a way that looks to me designed to get a mislynch.

Max is doing what Max usually does. Would be good to get his input, same for DDS.

[Loose Canon]

I agree would be good to get input from Max and DDS - both have sorta be given a free pass on this today, or at least lately D3

Its time for them to speak, free passes in these games should always come with a price.

[Loose Canon]

Jeez there's some maths/probability here that for a 6 player game even though I know who the other Mason is, is blowing my mind.

Think this must be what in Mafia circles I hear they call a numbers racket.

Why couldn't the Mafia stick to bootlegging, drugs and prostitution?

[Loose Canon]

Pepe, if you are town there is a 1/3 chance Sonic is town from your perspective, and it would mean the masons managed to pick the only two vanilla left for us to lynch between.

From my perspective there are 2 scums and 2 towns and I think the probabilities are:
adding up to 200% if I had to bet:
-Max 80% scum
-PMC 60% scum
-Sonic 30% scum
-DDS 30% scum
-LC 0% scum

So for me Sonic has 2/3 chance to be town.

There's a few unusual voting stances that have been taken recently.

I want us all to consider what if anything they might signify.

Whilst I favour lynching Pepe, I would urge everyone to pause and not risk a lynching just now. I'd actually like unvoting while we do so.

So by example

unvote pepeatilla

There was no risk of lynching, even knowing that you want to lynch me, I said that I was not going to hammer Sonic, only you or himself could hammer Sonic.

One thing I know is those probabilities, particularly the one on max are total rubbish.
Does Pepe know that too?
Is he feigning ignorance whilst excusing himself from lynching sonic?
Can't shake off the feeling Pepe is the better lynchee

[Loose Canon]

It is not my place to hammer... so to be consistent
vote PMC
...

Again nonsense, even if Pepe does think it.
But I don't think he does

[Loose Canon]

And just after the above rubbish from Pepe Charle issued a vote count which showed 3 votes on sonic which were PMC DDS and max which means the next posting by Pepe ... you've guessed....

[Loose Canon]

Pepe, if you are town there is a 1/3 chance Sonic is town from your perspective, and it would mean the masons managed to pick the only two vanilla left for us to lynch between.

From my perspective there are 2 scums and 2 towns and I think the probabilities are:
adding up to 200% if I had to bet:
-Max 80% scum
-PMC 60% scum
-Sonic 30% scum
-DDS 30% scum
-LC 0% scum

So for me Sonic has 2/3 chance to be town.

There's a few unusual voting stances that have been taken recently.

I want us all to consider what if anything they might signify.

Whilst I favour lynching Pepe, I would urge everyone to pause and not risk a lynching just now. I'd actually like unvoting while we do so.

So by example

unvote pepeatilla

There was no risk of lynching, even knowing that you want to lynch me, I said that I was not going to hammer Sonic, only you or himself could hammer Sonic.

Total rubbish - Pepes vote then would have lynched sonic

[Loose Canon]

F*** it I'll have to give way and vote to lynch sonic in the end if I have to. He's my 2nd favourite to be scum after all.
But right now my first favourite is Pepe and I've let myself get riled that he's playing us.

vote pepeatilla

[DirtyDishSoap]

My input on the matter hasn't changed.

Pepe and Max are the two easiest lynchs you could ask for. Meanwhile, after some pressure, Sonics just been widely making things up as he went on. Whether it's the booze talking for him (fair enough, fellow boozer), or just trying to dig himself out of a hole, it's not really been helping his case, so my vote is staying.

Not trying to skirt by. Just alot on my plate.

[Charle]

Vote Count:

Sonic (2) - DDS, Max
Pepe (1) - LC
PMC (1) - Pepe

No Vote (2) - Sonic, PMC

With 6 alive - 4 votes for a lynch

[PepeAtila]

OK so

Scenario 1: if we lynch scum, then we have 4 left tomorrow with one scum, normal ish game, mylo with potential for masons.

Scenario 2: If we lynch town, and they both kill unique townies, we enter the above state where town almost certainly lose.

Scenario 3: If we lynch town, they kill the same town, we have 4 players left, even if we lynch mafia we lose so we have to no lynch and hope they kill each other.

Scenario 4: If we lynch town, one townie is killed and one scum killed, then its lylo with 2 town 1 scum.

Scenario 5: We lynch town, they kill each other, lol, we win without lynching any mafia

Scenario 6: No Lynch, they kill each other then same as Scenario 5

Scenario 7: No Lynch, town unique townies killed, same as scenario 3

Scenarion 8: No Lynch, they kill same town, we have 5 left with both mafia factions alive. We have to lynch mafia, if we do lylo with 3 players

Scenario 9: No Lynch, one town, one scum die, same as Scenario 1.

I hope I didn't confuse with the operations (I did the calculations, it's as if everything was random).
if we Lynch 1Mafia (41% win)
Scenario 1: the next day 3 Town and 1 Mafia : if 2 vainille 33% win, if 1 vainille 50% win.

if we Lynch 1Town (25% to win)
37% (6/16) Scenario 2: the next day 1Town and 2Mafia : 0%.
19% (3/16) Scenario 3: the next day 2Town and 2Mafia: another lynch is necesary if lynch 1Mafia then the other will win, if lynch 1Town both Mafia win. 0% win
37% (6/16) Scenario 4: the next day 2Town and 1Mafia: another lynch is necesary 50% win
7% (1/16) Scenario 5: the next day 3Town and 0Mafia: 100% win

if no Lynch (22% to win)
4% (1/25) Scenario 6: the next day 4Town and 0Mafia: 100% win
48% (12/25) Scenario 7: the next day 2Town and 2Mafia: scenario 3. (0%)
16% (4/25) Scenario 8: the next day 3T and 2M: another lynch is necesary if lynch 1M(50%) then day5 will be 2T and 1M, if lynch 1T will depend on the night kill but only chance both mafia kills each other (1/9). average in this scenario (1/2 x 1/2 + 1/2 x 1/9) 30% win
32% (8/25) Scenario 9: the next day 3T and 1M: scenario 1 (41%)

[Loose Canon]

So you're not mathematically dumb then.
Good to know.

But either dumb or playing dumb in gameplay, notably:

Putting max at top of your probabilities for scum
Voting PMC

Res ipsa loquitor

[Loose Canon]

Got that Res ipsa stuff from my lawyer by the way.

Wrote my will recently thinking I might die tonight.
Might need to get a new one, soon - might have to cut some people out of it - and the old lawyer dude seems pretty useless.

But for tonight I feel lucky punky.

[PepeAtila]

So you're not mathematically dumb then.
Good to know.

But either dumb or playing dumb in gameplay, notably:

Putting max at top of your probabilities for scum
Voting PMC

Res ipsa loquitor

Perhaps I don't want to understand what are trying telling me 'dumb' the same I don't understand why you told Sonic 'fool', I will not say what I think about you.

Maybe you think the game authorizes you to insult whoever you want...
Although the game allows you to, I don't.
I quit the game.

[SoN!c]

Pepe, he is just trying to get under your skin. Masons going for the last 2 town..Scum is laughing so hard.

The problem is you did not know who the 2 masons were all game long. I had DDS and PMC as mason for the biggest part.

And not saying who the masons were was a good thing, but also very confusing for rest of town. Loose was hiding his mason identity so that is what town sensed and made the last townies (me and you) think he was scum.. Now Loose plays with Max suggesting / trying to make everybody here believe Max is not a mason (but that also implies DDS or even PMC is the second mason)..

Loose reads everything knowing who the second Mason is, rest of town does not and scum just plays along.

Town is not so careful as scum so we will make more moves that could be seen like a scum move like your vote on Traf.

Scum is very carefull, only when they have to respond fast you might get a slip up. Like DDS has the easy free ride here because Strike flipped town and later he got the "mason" label.

Dont quit.

[pmchugh]

Yeah I think we should all try keep it civil here. The game gets a bit heated and people have strong opinions, so don't take it personally.

Best example is vot, frustrating player for me sometimes but now he isn't playing I miss him so much! Everyone here is cool and should post more, and it's nice to have you along Pepe!

[SoN!c]

PMC, what is your idea on a possible DDS-EW or Traf-DDS combo?

I mean Loose is mason and his Max theatre play cleary indicates Max, and not DDS, is the second Mason.

DDS is also way too silent in here and he did get the town Ragian mislynch going. If he is no Mason then his play sofar has DDS scum signature all over to me.

[pmchugh]

Lets state the facts we can agree on:

6 Players Remaining made up of
1 Werewolf
1 Mafia
2 Town Masons
2 Town Vanilla

2 Masons each have a 50% chance if sticking a pin of voting for scum.
2 Vanilla town each have a 50% chance if sticking a pin of voting scum (masons would declare if in danger of being lynched)
2 Scum each have a 1 in 3 chance if sticking a pin of voting rival scum (masons declare if in danger)


EW + X killed Devante and Traf
Traf + Y killed Strike + EW

IF we keep these facts in mind at all times we may be able to Deduce who X and Y are most likely to be, D3.

Does anyone want to disagree with the above framework?

I have to re read the set up but i don't believe this to be right from Charles sign up page. Not unless he deviated.

I think it might be this
https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Friends_and_Enemies

With 11 players, 2 scum with an SK/Werewolf is likely.
Might just be one left.

DDS here seems to not know how the Werewolf faction works. Let's first take this at face value: DDS could not be a Werewolf!

Could he be mafia? Well Traf was mafia and he demonstrated rule understanding and it would be odd if DDS still mistakenly believed it.
Therefore DDS is not likely mafia.

However, we then return to the original question. What if DDS is a wolf and he chose to post this deliberately to make us think he wasn't one?

I lean towards the upsides being too marginal and he is probably just town not paying attention.

[Loose Canon]

Hey Pepe, GENUINELY did not intend to cause you real offence.

Best way you can get back at me is to shoot me or eat me perhaps?

[PepeAtila]

I'm going to continue because I don't want to spoil the game for Charle and for most of you...
Charle keep the good job...