jusplay4fun wrote:Here is the main question here:
How much more money does the US send to Ukraine (money we DO NOT have, btw, since this merely adds to OUR deficit) just to give Russia and Putin a "bloody nose?" I think Duk said it well a while ago that the Russians have so many more people, resources, and money to throw at the outnumbered Ukrainians.
This is a legitimate question.
Yes, in every major metric, from population to GDP, Russia outnumbers Ukraine 3-to-1 or better. In many minor strategic categories, it's far worse than that -- in oil production for instance, Russia outpaces Ukraine 300-to-1. In many strategic metals, Russia is among the largest producers in the world while Ukraine's supplies are trivial.
Now, the Ukrainians do have some advantages: since they're fighting on home soil, they're better motivated, better suited to the terrain, etc. But those kinds of things can give some local tactical advantage, but not long-term strategic advantage. The courage and determination with which the Ukrainians have fought has been absolutely exemplary, but without massive outside help, they cannot in the long run survive.
From the point of view of the Ukrainians, there's no question. They know Putin plans to kill or enslave all of them, so there's no doubt that they have to fight with everything they have, and ask the rest of the world for everything else. It's not greedy to make demands when your very survival is on the line.
From the point of view of everybody else, it's a tougher question. How motivated can everyone else be?
For the Poles and the Czechs and the Lithuanians and everyone else who at one time or another has lived under the Russian boot, this question is almost as existential as it is for the Ukrainians. Putin wants to be remembered as the conqueror who rebuilt the Soviet Empire, and he's a sociopath who doesn't mind killing millions if that's what it takes to cement that legacy.
The farther afield you go, the less existential the question gets. Even at the height of the Soviet Empire, Russian tanks never reached the Rhine. Germans are a little less worried than are Poles; Frenchmen are a little less concerned than are Germans; Englishmen are a little less disquieted than are Frenchmen. I don't think anyone in Europe should completely ignore the threat, but there's no doubt that the farther you live from the Russian border, the less this question is going to occupy your mind.
For the American taxpayer in Peoria, the question is very distant and not really existential at all. No matter how bad things get in Europe, nobody is going to invade the U.S. Even if Putin conquers all of Eurasia, the consequence for the U.S. will simply mean the loss of profits for American businesses tied to import/export and U.S. dollar hegemony. Some people will lose their shirt, but for the majority nothing will change. A small drop in standard of living, but not much more than that. I really can't argue with American taxpayers who ask, "why are we paying for this shit?" I try to tell them it's a glorious David and Goliath story, and when the histories are written you want to be on the side of David. But that argument loses power quickly.
Here's where it starts to really bother me.
Since the beginning, I've always expected Ukraine to lose this war. But I thought it was finally the wake-up call Europe needed to rebuild and rearm. And, at first, there were signs that it would. But two years in, there doesn't seem to be any sense of urgency. Most European nations have raised their military expenditures a little bit, but not nearly close to what you could call a wartime level. Nobody has reinstituted universal conscription, which will so desperately needed. By now, Leopard IIs should be coming off the assembly line at 50/week, not 50/year. France should have ordered 600 Rafales last year, not 21. The great citizen armies of France and Sweden are becoming a memory. As for the glorious British Navy, I can't even think about its current status without crying.
Unfortunately, JP, I have nothing substantive to offer you. As long as the nations of Europe spend more money smoking dope than preparing for war against the nutcase in the Kremlin, I can't give you a good reason why you should be picking up the slack. I hope you do, I beg you to, but I can't in all honesty give you a rational reason why you should.
