Prison Mafia TOWN WIN !!

[degaston]

I haven't done a count, but based on Pepe's post it looks like both Pix and JMac are at L-2. Should they both claim?

[Dunk90]

There is so much shit going on in the game. I CANNOT keep track of it. My head is spinning from all the accusations, finger pointing, deep investigations, and falsehoods. But from someone who hasn't played before and looking at this objectively, I think the ones who talk the most and try to hard in the beginning look the most suspicious. That is why I voted Pixar. I have suspected him from day 1. I have other suspicions of others but will reserve my feelings on them until we see what Pixar is all about. If he's been Town all along and I'm wrong about him then I will have to rethink my analysis.

BUT UNTIL THEN..........VOTE LYNCH PIXAR

Double voting…

Didn't mean to double it. Just reiterating my previous vote. Sorry about that.

[degaston]

... But for Lynch are need 8 votes from 14 ... now Jmac 6 votes and *Pixar* 5 votes

I get that no one is trusting me, but whatever. The fact remains that we don't get a lynch if we can't agree. Jmac is up and we only need 2 to switch sides. Town needs a lynch and time is short

FP by dega

We still have more than 24 hours.

[Dunk90]

I haven't done a count, but based on Pepe's post it looks like both Pix and JMac are at L-2. Should they both claim?

Haven't they both claimed already? Like said, Tough to keep up.

[DukeHazzard]

... But for Lynch are need 8 votes from 14 ... now Jmac 6 votes and *Pixar* 5 votes

I get that no one is trusting me, but whatever. The fact remains that we don't get a lynch if we can't agree. Jmac is up and we only need 2 to switch sides. Town needs a lynch and time is short

FP by dega

We still have more than 24 hours.

My bad, I thought it was tonight.. What day is it??

[joshzam]

--. .. -... -... . .-. .. ... ....

[fusibaseball]

Not sure why the majority number has to be 8. We have 13 players eligible to vote, should be 7.

Josh may be hinting at the confirmation of a Cat role in play:
https://mafia.gg/guide/roles
Notice that his messages have decreased in length across all 4 posts today. I think the Cat on our hands just doesn't have to silence themselves. So we may have Agent and Cat still active, with likely a 5th unknown role.

Currently 6 votes JMac, 5 votes Pixar, Deg's vote for Duke, and Dukasaur has yet again not voted. He's basically Dead Weight Bax 2.0.

[fusibaseball]

JMac needs to full claim

[Dunk90]

Not sure why the majority number has to be 8. We have 13 players eligible to vote, should be 7.

Josh may be hinting at the confirmation of a Cat role in play:
https://mafia.gg/guide/roles
Notice that his messages have decreased in length across all 4 posts today. I think the Cat on our hands just doesn't have to silence themselves. So we may have Agent and Cat still active, with likely a 5th unknown role.

Currently 6 votes JMac, 5 votes Pixar, Deg's vote for Duke, and Dukasaur has yet again not voted. He's basically Dead Weight Bax 2.0.

DUKASAUR....Why aren't you voting????!!!!!

[Dunk90]

--. .. -... -... . .-. .. ... ....

Can anyone translate Morse code?

[degaston]

For all of you voting for Pixar, I'd like you to think about this:

1. Duke has claimed that Razor told him Pixar is not scum.
2. If Duke is telling the truth, then Pixar is not scum.
3. If Duke is lying about his role, then Pixar might or might not be scum, but there is no case where Pixar is scum and Duke is not.
4. Therefore, there is no logical reason to lynch Pixar before Duke.

[degaston]

--. .. -... -... . .-. .. ... ....

Can anyone translate Morse code?

GIBBERISH

[fusibaseball]

If Duke is lying about his role, then Pixar might or might not be scum, but there is no case where Pixar is scum and Duke is not.

Can you elaborate on this?

[Dukasaur]

Not sure why the majority number has to be 8. We have 13 players eligible to vote, should be 7.

Josh may be hinting at the confirmation of a Cat role in play:
https://mafia.gg/guide/roles
Notice that his messages have decreased in length across all 4 posts today. I think the Cat on our hands just doesn't have to silence themselves. So we may have Agent and Cat still active, with likely a 5th unknown role.

Currently 6 votes JMac, 5 votes Pixar, Deg's vote for Duke, and Dukasaur has yet again not voted. He's basically Dead Weight Bax 2.0.

DUKASAUR....Why aren't you voting????!!!!!

Yesterday when I read this thread, there didn't seem to be any real consensus.

This is quite literally the first time in 24 hours that I've been here, and the first time I've seen something emerging.

It seems Pixar and JMac are realistic possibilities for a lynch. For reasons given previously, I'm inclined to give JMAc the benefit of the doubt.

I don't fully understand it, but fusiball seems to have a plan. That's more than I have, so I'll go with it.

Too many lies, way too many lies.

Vote Pixar

Duke, I have a job for you. Tonight, ask Raz if I'm Town. You will 100% get a Yes response. Tomorrow during the day, before we lynch someone, we can use your ability to confirm that that player getting lynched is not Town. And if they are, Town can pivot to someone else. Deal?

Vote *Pixar*

[degaston]

If Duke is lying about his role, then Pixar might or might not be scum, but there is no case where Pixar is scum and Duke is not.

Can you elaborate on this?

If Pixar is scum, then either Duke is lying, or Razor lied to Duke. Which do you think is more likely?

[degaston]

Dukasaur is useless and skimming. If no one will vote for Duke, then I'd rather vote for Dukasaur than Pixar or JMac.

[fusibaseball]

Degaston, I interpret you as an advanced Mafia player so I'm going to go pretty in-depth here to justify a Pixar vote right now and please let me know where my logic is flawed. You would be the 7th and necessary hammer vote (if Raz modifies a lynch from 8 to 7 votes) at a critical point in the game so your decision here matters a lot.

I agree in retrospect that a lynch onto DukeHazzard would have been more advantageous to Town than a vote onto Pixar. However, a vote onto Pixar provides immense utility for reference through previous actions. For example, starting at the very top, Day 1, Pixar outright votes Dunk within 5 hours of game start. We have a confirmed 3rd party player who bandwagons within 24 hours. We can already extrapolate Dunk is never Third party. If Pix flips Scum, Dunk is now 100% Town and that is largely collective knowledge which cannot be refuted.

Duke's now-debunked note will justify allegiance to Pixar and likely Pepe as well. This is a player who hides Days 1 and 2 and immediately fabricates a note to attenuate pressure off Pixar and Pepe, the two primary targets at that stage. If Pixar flips Scum, we can extrapolate Duke as Scum and the vote tomorrow is easy. If Pixar flips 3rd party, we do the same...vote tomorrow is easy.

Take Maxleod, a player who you may find confusing at this stage. He and Pixar cannot be aligned given how much pressure they have placed on each other. If Pixar flips Scum, we can infer Max is 3rd party or Town and should not be targeted (generally). If Pixar flips 3rd party, we can infer Max is Town or Scum. If Pixar flips Town, we have significant evidence to go after Max tomorrow.

This vote today is quite different from Days 2 and 3 because I think it itself can provide a lot of insight. Given how close it is, if he flips Mafia, we can safely assume the remaining Mafia players to be in the group of 6 who vote JMac. That clears half the lobby.

Even if you don't find him suspicious, a player at the center of so much controversy provides tremendous intel upon reveal. What does a lynch onto JMac get us? About as much information as Bax's did...nada.

Ragian has estimated that the average Mafia game has a Town:Mafia ratio of 3:1. In a group of 24 players, I estimate we started with 15:5:4 Town:Mafia:3rd Party. You can give or take 1 to each group given the specific setup Raz chose, but that's roughly the ballpark we're working with. We have lost 7 Town, 2 Mafia, 1 3rd Party. So we're looking at roughly 8:3:3, with the 3 remaining Mafia as Agent, Spy, and some other 5th role hiding really well. I re-emphasize the ratios because the more I think about it, the less urgent the situation becomes. Mafia will never gain majority until final 11, and that's worst-case scenario if 3rd party and Mafia numbers are combined. More likely, they're not, in which case Mafia does not reach majority until final 5. In other words, I think intel gathering should be the primary focus right now, even at the risk of losing someone you interpret as not Mafia.

[*Pixar*]

Seems like a lot more benefit if I "happen" to flip scum/3rd party compared to town, but then again wouldn't there be benefit to that with anyone and not just me? .

[Dunk90]

Degaston, I interpret you as an advanced Mafia player so I'm going to go pretty in-depth here to justify a Pixar vote right now and please let me know where my logic is flawed. You would be the 7th and necessary hammer vote (if Raz modifies a lynch from 8 to 7 votes) at a critical point in the game so your decision here matters a lot.

I agree in retrospect that a lynch onto DukeHazzard would have been more advantageous to Town than a vote onto Pixar. However, a vote onto Pixar provides immense utility for reference through previous actions. For example, starting at the very top, Day 1, Pixar outright votes Dunk within 5 hours of game start. We have a confirmed 3rd party player who bandwagons within 24 hours. We can already extrapolate Dunk is never Third party. If Pix flips Scum, Dunk is now 100% Town and that is largely collective knowledge which cannot be refuted.

Duke's now-debunked note will justify allegiance to Pixar and likely Pepe as well. This is a player who hides Days 1 and 2 and immediately fabricates a note to attenuate pressure off Pixar and Pepe, the two primary targets at that stage. If Pixar flips Scum, we can extrapolate Duke as Scum and the vote tomorrow is easy. If Pixar flips 3rd party, we do the same...vote tomorrow is easy.

Take Maxleod, a player who you may find confusing at this stage. He and Pixar cannot be aligned given how much pressure they have placed on each other. If Pixar flips Scum, we can infer Max is 3rd party or Town and should not be targeted (generally). If Pixar flips 3rd party, we can infer Max is Town or Scum. If Pixar flips Town, we have significant evidence to go after Max tomorrow.

This vote today is quite different from Days 2 and 3 because I think it itself can provide a lot of insight. Given how close it is, if he flips Mafia, we can safely assume the remaining Mafia players to be in the group of 6 who vote JMac. That clears half the lobby.

Even if you don't find him suspicious, a player at the center of so much controversy provides tremendous intel upon reveal. What does a lynch onto JMac get us? About as much information as Bax's did...nada.

Ragian has estimated that the average Mafia game has a Town:Mafia ratio of 3:1. In a group of 24 players, I estimate we started with 15:5:4 Town:Mafia:3rd Party. You can give or take 1 to each group given the specific setup Raz chose, but that's roughly the ballpark we're working with. We have lost 7 Town, 2 Mafia, 1 3rd Party. So we're looking at roughly 8:3:3, with the 3 remaining Mafia as Agent, Spy, and some other 5th role hiding really well. I re-emphasize the ratios because the more I think about it, the less urgent the situation becomes. Mafia will never gain majority until final 11, and that's worst-case scenario if 3rd party and Mafia numbers are combined. More likely, they're not, in which case Mafia does not reach majority until final 5. In other words, I think intel gathering should be the primary focus right now, even at the risk of losing someone you interpret as not Mafia.

I wish I was this deep. Wow....just wow

[degaston]

I agree in retrospect that a lynch onto DukeHazzard would have been more advantageous to Town than a vote onto Pixar.

I'm not sure what you mean here. Neither one has been lynched yet, so what is "in retrospect"?

I don't give a lot of importance to Pixar's early Dunk vote. Early voting can often be useful just to get a discussion going, it was based on a pretty scummy statement by Dunk, and he did end up voting for halrob on both days. TrafalgarLaw01 (confirmed town) kept his vote on Dunk.

Also, I was very suspicious of Darin, Dunk and traffic when they all voted No Lynch in quick succession on D1 when I thought it was already obvious that halrob was scum. I now believe that both Darin and Dunk are town, and traffic was just trying to get a No Lynch bandwagon going to stop the lynch of his scum-buddy.

My point is that analyzing voting patterns can be misleading, because the townies are confused, and the scum want to mislead you.

I would agree that if Pixar is scum, then Duke is as well. But what about Pepe and i-andrei? Did Dunk try to protect other scum-buddies, or was he trying to get town credit? Scum want to confuse you, so they will try not to have a pattern in their actions. They can support town players, or fight with, accuse, and even hammer other scum in order to get town credit. This can be by agreement in their private chat, or made up on the fly. So even if you lynch someone and they flip scum, you can't assume that all their actions were harmful to town.

But I really don't think that Pixar is scum (because of his role - I could go into more detail, but I don't think it's that important for this discussion), and I don't think you've given enough thought to what happens if he flips town or 3rd party. Duke only said that he was not mafia. So why would you lynch Duke if Pixar was 3rd party? If Pixar is not scum, then is Duke a townie who is telling the truth, or is he scum, (who know all the non-scum players) and wanted to set himself up with confirmation of his power, wanted some town players (like Pepe) who would vouch for his "honesty", and wanted to be able to play puppet-master and lead the town to its death at a later time?

If Pix flips Scum, Dunk is now 100% Town and that is largely collective knowledge which cannot be refuted.

Absolutely false. Dunk stated that Pix was town, so if Pix flips scum, then Dunk was lying, and is also scum.

Take Maxleod, a player who you may find confusing at this stage. He and Pixar cannot be aligned given how much pressure they have placed on each other. If Pixar flips Scum, we can infer Max is 3rd party or Town and should not be targeted (generally). If Pixar flips 3rd party, we can infer Max is Town or Scum. If Pixar flips Town, we have significant evidence to go after Max tomorrow.

From what I can tell, Max visited Pixar and his power revealed that someone else was there. He assumed that they were having a meeting, and that it meant that Pixar was scum or 3rd party. I don't think his conclusions are correct (though I don't know exactly what he was told). We know that several people visited Pixar on N1, but that doesn't say anything about their alignment.

Ragian has estimated that the average Mafia game has a Town:Mafia ratio of 3:1...

We don't know the exact make-up of the roles. That's entirely up to Razor.

In my opinion, we learn almost nothing from lynching Pixar, because he hasn't claimed anything.

If Pixar is town or 3rd party, then he was probably as much in the dark as all of us who don't have an investigative power. Would we learn whether Dunk is telling the truth about his role, or if he was telling the truth about Pepe and i-andrei? No.

But if Pixar is scum, then why did Dunk say he was not?
So if Pixar is scum, then Dunk is also scum, but that still doesn't tell us anything about Pepe or i-andrei.

If we lynch Dunk first and he flips town, then we have three players that we know are not scum.
If he flips scum, then we have eliminated another scum, and can evaluate his claims and interactions from there.

(If I left out anything that you think needs to be addressed, let me know.)

[degaston]

If Pix flips Scum, Dunk is now 100% Town and that is largely collective knowledge which cannot be refuted.

Absolutely false. Dunk stated that Pix was town, so if Pix flips scum, then Dunk was lying, and is also scum.

Sorry - got my Dukes and my Dunks mixed up. As I said, I think Dunk is town anyway.

[degaston]

Well CRAP! Halfway through I started calling Duke Dunk. I think this is correct now, but l'm getting very tired of this, as I imagine everyone is.

I agree in retrospect that a lynch onto DukeHazzard would have been more advantageous to Town than a vote onto Pixar.

I'm not sure what you mean here. Neither one has been lynched yet, so what is "in retrospect"?

I don't give a lot of importance to Pixar's early Dunk vote. Early voting can often be useful just to get a discussion going, it was based on a pretty scummy statement by Dunk, and he did end up voting for halrob on both days. TrafalgarLaw01 (confirmed town) kept his vote on Dunk.

Also, I was very suspicious of Darin, Dunk and traffic when they all voted No Lynch in quick succession on D1 when I thought it was already obvious that halrob was scum. I now believe that both Darin and Dunk are town, and traffic was just trying to get a No Lynch bandwagon going to stop the lynch of his scum-buddy.

My point is that analyzing voting patterns can be misleading, because the townies are confused, and the scum want to mislead you.

I would agree that if Pixar is scum, then Duke is as well. But what about Pepe and i-andrei? Did Dunk DUKE try to protect other scum-buddies, or was he trying to get town credit? Scum want to confuse you, so they will try not to have a pattern in their actions. They can support town players, or fight with, accuse, and even hammer other scum in order to get town credit. This can be by agreement in their private chat, or made up on the fly. So even if you lynch someone and they flip scum, you can't assume that all their actions were harmful to town.

But I really don't think that Pixar is scum (because of his role - I could go into more detail, but I don't think it's that important for this discussion), and I don't think you've given enough thought to what happens if he flips town or 3rd party. Duke only said that he was not mafia. So why would you lynch Duke if Pixar was 3rd party? If Pixar is not scum, then is Duke a townie who is telling the truth, or is he scum, (who know all the non-scum players) and wanted to set himself up with confirmation of his power, wanted some town players (like Pepe) who would vouch for his "honesty", and wanted to be able to play puppet-master and lead the town to its death at a later time?

Take Maxleod, a player who you may find confusing at this stage. He and Pixar cannot be aligned given how much pressure they have placed on each other. If Pixar flips Scum, we can infer Max is 3rd party or Town and should not be targeted (generally). If Pixar flips 3rd party, we can infer Max is Town or Scum. If Pixar flips Town, we have significant evidence to go after Max tomorrow.

From what I can tell, Max visited Pixar and his power revealed that someone else was there. He assumed that they were having a meeting, and that it meant that Pixar was scum or 3rd party. I don't think his conclusions are correct (though I don't know exactly what he was told). We know that several people visited Pixar on N1, but that doesn't say anything about their alignment.

Ragian has estimated that the average Mafia game has a Town:Mafia ratio of 3:1...

We don't know the exact make-up of the roles. That's entirely up to Razor.

In my opinion, we learn almost nothing from lynching Pixar, because he hasn't claimed anything.

If Pixar is town or 3rd party, then he was probably as much in the dark as all of us who don't have an investigative power. Would we learn whether Dunk DUKE is telling the truth about his role, or if he was telling the truth about Pepe and i-andrei? No.

But if Pixar is scum, then why did Dunk DUKE say he was not?
So if Pixar is scum, then Dunk DUKE is also scum, but that still doesn't tell us anything about Pepe or i-andrei.

If we lynch Dunk DUKE first and he flips town, then we have three players that we know are not scum.
If he flips scum, then we have eliminated another scum, and can evaluate his claims and interactions from there.

(If I left out anything that you think needs to be addressed, let me know.)

[fusibaseball]

...I don't think you've given enough thought to what happens if he flips town or 3rd party. Duke only said that he was not mafia. So why would you lynch Duke if Pixar was 3rd party? If Pixar is not scum, then is Duke a townie who is telling the truth, or is he scum, (who know all the non-scum players) and wanted to set himself up with confirmation of his power, wanted some town players (like Pepe) who would vouch for his "honesty", and wanted to be able to play puppet-master and lead the town to its death at a later time?

Right, this is a very interesting thought I hadn't thought of.

"In retrospect" just refers to this Day 4 voting period. I don't think there's enough time to convince enough people to get out DukeHazzard, but for now I'll shift my vote to abate Pixar getting hammered. Maybe there's enough time, who knows.

Unvote Pixar, vote DukeHazzard

I need fresh Morning Fusi brain with his 7 AM coffee to get back into this. Day 4 has significantly ratcheted up the difficulty level

[Darin44]

My point is that analyzing voting patterns can be misleading, because the townies are confused, and the scum want to mislead you

The more I read the more I get confused
I like what degaston has to say, but fusibaseball has a point too
I would like to change my vote and go with degaston, But I will keep it for now

FP"d fusibaseball

Unvote Pixar, vote DukeHazzard

[Darin44]

My point is that analyzing voting patterns can be misleading, because the townies are confused, and the scum want to mislead you

The more I read the more I get confused
I like what degaston has to say, but fusibaseball has a point too
I would like to change my vote and go with degaston, But I will keep it for now

FP"d fusibaseball

Unvote Pixar, vote DukeHazzard

Just so you know I'm trusting you two, It could get me in trouble in the long run but we will see