jimboston wrote:karel wrote:russia winning this war and good for russia,we need to stop supporting this country no more money
Russia is “winning”?
ummm… another alternate reality.
Russia thought they’d roll over Ukraine in 3 months.
At this point Russia is just hoping to inflict enough pain that they can negotiate a full / official transfer of Crimea and
maybe some other eastern areas. Also at this point that doesn’t look like it’s gonna happen.
I wouldn't be so cocky.
This is still a David-and-Goliath war. The Ukrainians have done a magnificent job of holding off the Russian onslaught so far, and they've even shown themselves able to mount a counteroffensive, but ultimately they will be remembered as heroes who fought courageously in a losing cause.
Ukrainian population 41 million. Russian population 144 million. (3.5 times greater)
Ukrainian nominal GDP 200 bilion. Russian nominal GDP 2 trillion. (10 times greater)
Ukrainian PPP 590 billion. Russian PPP 4.6 trillion. (7.5 times greater)
The Russian economy has been hurt by the war, but no great cracks have appeared. The Ukrainian economy has been almost completely crippled, and only subsidies from the West are keeping it alive.
Russia is a big, diverse country, self-sufficient in most metals and minerals, and an energy superpower. Ukraine is a moderate-sized country with basically two industries -- agriculture and steel. The Russian stole the better half of the steel mills in 2014, and they've bombed the rest of them into oblivion. Ukraine's other industry, agriculture, can only be turned into cash by exporting grain through the Black Sea, which the Russians dominate completely. The fact that the Russians have allowed (some) Ukrainian grain exports to continue (for now) shows that they're not too worried about the Ukrainians being able to pay their bills. They know just how fragile the Ukrainian balance sheet is, and allowing grain exports to continue buys the Russians a bit of goodwill in Africa without any great danger of Ukraine getting rich.
They've had some setbacks on the battlefield, but ultimately wars are won by economics. Heroics on the battlefield can only hold off the inevitable for so long.
The Russian army has made some colossal blunders, but that's what they do at the start of every war -- look at the Napoleonic Wars, the Great Northern War, the Crimean war, WW1, WW2, the various Turkish Wars, the various Persian Wars, etc., etc. Even more recently the various wars with Georgia, Chechnya, Tajikistan, etc. Always the Russian like to open with some colossal blunders. They soon find out who are the stupidest generals, exile or execute them, replace them with a younger officer corps, and roll back in. Their vast population reserve allows them to quickly replace those early casualties. They've won 90% of their wars in the last 200 years and always started out by putting their worst foot forward and making a big show of incompetence. Only really lost 3 -- WWI, Japan and Afghanistan -- and some minor setbacks like in Chechnya where they had to temporarily accept a tactical defeat only to come back two years later.
Don't get me wrong -- my heart is 100% with Ukraine -- but I know my heart will again be broken. This war is without final hope. It's a heroic sacrifice the Ukraine is making, giving Europe a chance to wake up and rearm before the Russian bear falls upon them.