I would combine weight by round and D400 rank into one coefficient. I would use last rank before the war ended (if war ends July 4 2021, use July 1 2021 rank)
If you don't, you have players getting an unadjusted advantage by the luck of the draw.
You can go back and find examples of clans having unusually easy quarterfinals or difficult round of 16 matchups which will increase the luck factor in your final results.
Rankings aren't perfect, there will be lag in rises and falls, but generally it's a good barometer of strength.
Donelladan wrote:i-andrei wrote:Nut Shot Scott wrote:rockfist wrote:I would reiterate my contention that later rounds (finals/semi finals) should be heavier weighted than early rounds. I don't think it makes any difference if you go 9-2 vs 11-0 in the first round, but 9-4 vs 7-6 in the semi finals is a big deal.
Maybe a 1,2,3,4 rating system or something like that?
Yes, I do agree. I intend to add an escalating % as the rounds go up. Between that and the far more complicated data collection - each matchup having it's own set is far more time consuming to go through - it will be a slog. But I am committed!
That's flawed, cause it takes into account the round, not the oponent.
You can use the rankings at that point in rimw, but it s more difficult to handle..
Using ranking wouldn't be less flawed because ranking is always a couple of month late compared to current clan shape.
If one clan is able to move forward while being low ranked, then ranking was wrong, hence round makes more sense.
I'd take as example the CC5 conquer cup that LHDD started as underdog where we lost in the semi against FALL 31/30, and probably vey few clan expected us to go through the 2nd round since we were ranked 13th back then. But LHDD was on the rise and the higher seeded clan back then (PACK ranked 4th then TSM ranked 5th) were declining.
rockfist wrote:I disagree with using rankings.
What ranking system would you use? The D400 lags actual performance by some measure. The tournament seeding uses historical tournament results and the D400 when you sign up, which can lag even further behind. For instance Fallen won CC5 but were ranked 9th or 10th (I'm guessing here) in the D400 or so when the tournament started. They were ranked #1 when it was all over, however (and I'm guessing here again) 4th or 5th in D400 when the finals started.
I think in order to measure current performance at the time the event took place you have to measure what round its in and weight it according to that. This isn't a tournament where you get through many rounds by luck, you have to be pretty good to advance very far in it. Look at the roll of winners, finalists, and semi-finalists. There are some one offs in there but for the most part its a who's who of the best historical clans.
