[CCX] R3: TOFU (31) vs FOED (24) - TOFU Wins - Final 9/18/20

[Fyrdraca]

Again, of course on that game drop and 1st turn are significant. And when an elite team on that map gets advantageous drop, there is often nothing the other side can do.
However, an elite team can also overcome a bad drop, even vs another high level team if played just slightly better.
I also will not comment if there was something your side could have done in this game.

, ok. I predicted your entire play in our game chat. We had no effective block once you had that absurd stack after 2 turns and nothing we could have done to prevent it.

Sure, this one was easy. So if you are specifically referring to this game in your assessment that skill didn’t matter, I could buy it.

But that’s not what your original comment sounded like to me.

Honestly though, I don’t know what percentage chance you give yourselves on your home maps against our clan, but if there is a map/settings combo we feel has at worst a 50% shot at a win, then its automatic in our lineup. This particular combo of unlimited Mosbi has proven much better than 50% odds, which is why we use it every time.

We accept the risk that the drop and turn order could screw us, and it has, but I’d argue that against top opponents drop and turn order play a big role on several maps. Some might not be as critical as Mosbi, but even a slight advantage against a top clan can prove the difference.

Who knows? Maybe we will throw a Mosbi trips at ya in Batch 2, and tempt our luck with the Norns of Yggdrasil

[Extreme Ways]

I do think, similar to S&M, your clan benefits from playing us earlier in the tournament. I never feel like TOFU REALLY specializes in specific maps, but we're very strong across the board. FOED and S&M on the other hand have a few maps with great winrates.

I love playing FALL early, I don't think FALL have that many maps over us. I like playing LHDD, I think they're very strong but again they don't have those few maps that always feel rough. I prefer playing S&M and FOED in the final, because only then can we fully utilise our extensive repertoire.

[rockfist]

Time will tell. We’ve never had actual percentages calculated for each map...I don’t think you can because a good map against S&M might be a horrible map against FOED or vice versa.

I know this, TOFU went 2nd in 8/9 games I was in in the first round...I never really look at that stat much, but it was so lop sided that I looked at my games and all of the games...it’s even overall so clearly I am the problem. One of our plans might be for me to sit out the second round so we get more first starts, but I may convince people to tempt fate there

[ljex]

On the topic of maps like those... City Mogul. I've had this discussion a number of times among some higher ranking members, and I still feel like drop and start is way more important than skill. I am not the best at that map, never will be, but I do think that I can hold a close-to 50% winrate against those that are much better than I am. It's easy to play when "first turn" means +80 in autodeploys and the first to any major bonus, plus attacker's advantage on subs.

In our game JP and groovy realized that we had better shops setup and simply rushed to arsonist. I don't think what we did ever mattered.

Obviously on City Mogul trench there is significant advantage of 1st turn. And if a 1st turn is played perfectly, it can be extremly improbable to overcome.
However, you can win from 2nd if you play it right and the other side does not play it perfectly.
I will stop there without going into what we might have done and what you could have done different

First turn is a massive advantage on that map however you want to slice it. Lets put it this way, if we go first with the exact same drop you have zero chance in the game.

I know exactly what we should have done different to play vs your fast arsonist strategy but you have 2 different options from your drop and we picked wrong on what we thought you were going to do. Oh by the way even if we picked the other strategy which involves slower expansion, we could still lose because as EW mentioned you have +80 on us let alone the attackers advantage.

I would say of all the settings picked in this war that is the map that is one of the most dependent on who goes first. Its fine if you want to send that map but lets at least call a spade a spade...

[JPlo64]

We accept the risk that the drop and turn order could screw us, and it has, but I’d argue that against top opponents drop and turn order play a big role on several maps. Some might not be as critical as Mosbi, but even a slight advantage against a top clan can prove the difference.

very well said stranger.

I do think, similar to S&M, your clan benefits from playing us earlier in the tournament. I never feel like TOFU REALLY specializes in specific maps, but we're very strong across the board. FOED and S&M on the other hand have a few maps with great winrates.

I love playing FALL early, I don't think FALL have that many maps over us. I like playing LHDD, I think they're very strong but again they don't have those few maps that always feel rough. I prefer playing S&M and FOED in the final, because only then can we fully utilise our extensive repertoire.

Good points about further you go in the Cup, the less map specialization is to one's advantage.
In relation to TOFU, point also makes the case why TOFU would excel in Clan league. Because in CL you must play many more different maps for both Home and Away.
However TOFU sat out CL this year and it's an event where TOFU has had Decent success relative to their strength, but not overwhelmingly good...

[rockfist]

I think CL massively favors map specialists over strong all around players. A clan with two strong map specialists covering two games each is likely to win 2.5 to 3 out of those four games.

[JPlo64]

I think CL massively favors map specialists over strong all around players. A clan with two strong map specialists covering two games each is likely to win 2.5 to 3 out of those four games.

There is a map limit in CL. in a 9 round CL, a clan must use a min of 24 maps if every map is used to max.
In CCup finals a clan must only use 15 maps if played to max.

[rockfist]

That may be the math but it’s wrong, a clan that has no chance of winning a war based on four maps can send those four maps in CL against any clan and it gives them a good chance of winning their home set even against a much better clan. Believe me clans with strong map specialties have historically sent them at us in CL.

[JPlo64]

That may be the math but it’s wrong, a clan that has no chance of winning a war based on four maps can send those four maps in CL against any clan and it gives them a good chance of winning their home set even against a much better clan. Believe me clans with strong map specialties have historically sent them at us in CL.

So your argument is that everyone uses all their specialty maps vs TOFU. Thus TOFU has little chance overall b/c they're being singled out.
There is prob some truth to that. But not to the extent that you suggest, I believe.

CL is different b/c it takes sustained effort over a long period of time and more skill in optimal game planning.

[rockfist]

If you can send 4/8 specialty maps vs 8 (each map 2x) of 55 that 4/8 gives you a better chance than 8/55 or even 8/49. If it was who wins the greater of 16 games instead of 8 and 8 it would value map specialists less.

I personally don’t like CL as much as CC because for a long time I the one who usually had to play map specialists on their specialty maps in CL (and many of those maps I don’t find fun, although some are). Neither my situation or our belief that CL favors map specialists and is more luck dependent due to smaller game totals against each opponent is why we didn’t play it. We just needed a break.

[Fyrdraca]

Time will tell. We’ve never had actual percentages calculated for each map...I don’t think you can because a good map against S&M might be a horrible map against FOED or vice versa.

I know this, TOFU went 2nd in 8/9 games I was in in the first round...I never really look at that stat much, but it was so lop sided that I looked at my games and all of the games...it’s even overall so clearly I am the problem. One of our plans might be for me to sit out the second round so we get more first starts, but I may convince people to tempt fate there

I wasn’t saying you calculate actual win percentage and base your map choices off of that. What I was trying to imply was that it’s unlikely for any clan to send a map where they feel they have less than a 50% chance to win from the start. I’m sure there are many maps where you feel your chance to win is 60% or higher, so of course you send those. But inevitably in a high game count war against a tough opponent, there are several games you have to send where you feel the odds are pretty close to even (before drop/turn order is determined).

Let me rework your example of S&M and FOED from our perspective of S&M and TOFU. We likely would never send unlimited Hive quads to S&M because of josko’s insanely high success rate on that map, even though we feel we play that map/settings combo pretty well. There is a good chance we could send that game to almost any other clan on the site, including you guys (though I don’t think we’ve ever played you on it, and I haven’t a clue what your record on it might be. This was just an easy example off the top of my head.)

That all being said, and as I mentioned previously, no matter the opponent, we feel at worst we have a 50% chance to win unlimited Pot Mosbi quads, which is why we send it every war. Once those odds drop below a 50% threshold, then we will re-evaluate. (Though maybe still send it because I find it to be quite fun! )

[Extreme Ways]

That may be the math but it’s wrong, a clan that has no chance of winning a war based on four maps can send those four maps in CL against any clan and it gives them a good chance of winning their home set even against a much better clan. Believe me clans with strong map specialties have historically sent them at us in CL.

So your argument is that everyone uses all their specialty maps vs TOFU. Thus TOFU has little chance overall b/c they're being singled out.
There is prob some truth to that. But not to the extent that you suggest, I believe.

CL is different b/c it takes sustained effort over a long period of time and more skill in optimal game planning.

In addition to what rock says, it's not so much that every clan sends their specialty maps against us, it's that most of our direct competitors send us their strongest maps. You are limited in map choice but as you mentioned, you don't send the exact same maps against every opponent even if you could. In general I dislike the CL format, because you can win a matchup 11-5 and split the points. I feel like GD should be more important.

PS: You also have clans like HH who send Doodle Earth, Luxembourg and Duck and Cover. I'm positive they also did this to you, but funny nonetheless https://www.conquerclub.com/public.php? ... WarId=2885 . In addition there's always games like 1982 in this war, in which dice decides the game by R2. 8 games is too low of a sample size, but the gamecount of 16 games a minimatchup would be too high.

[donche64]

Time will tell. We’ve never had actual percentages calculated for each map...I don’t think you can because a good map against S&M might be a horrible map against FOED or vice versa.

I know this, TOFU went 2nd in 8/9 games I was in in the first round...I never really look at that stat much, but it was so lop sided that I looked at my games and all of the games...it’s even overall so clearly I am the problem. One of our plans might be for me to sit out the second round so we get more first starts, but I may convince people to tempt fate there

I wasn’t saying you calculate actual win percentage and base your map choices off of that. What I was trying to imply was that it’s unlikely for any clan to send a map where they feel they have less than a 50% chance to win from the start. I’m sure there are many maps where you feel your chance to win is 60% or higher, so of course you send those. But inevitably in a high game count war against a tough opponent, there are several games you have to send where you feel the odds are pretty close to even (before drop/turn order is determined).

Let me rework your example of S&M and FOED from our perspective of S&M and TOFU. We likely would never send unlimited Hive quads to S&M because of josko’s insanely high success rate on that map, even though we feel we play that map/settings combo pretty well. There is a good chance we could send that game to almost any other clan on the site, including you guys (though I don’t think we’ve ever played you on it, and I haven’t a clue what your record on it might be. This was just an easy example off the top of my head.)

That all being said, and as I mentioned previously, no matter the opponent, we feel at worst we have a 50% chance to win unlimited Pot Mosbi quads, which is why we send it every war. Once those odds drop below a 50% threshold, then we will re-evaluate. (Though maybe still send it because I find it to be quite fun! )

Well said. In fact, appart from josko's unlimited Hive, not sure I see an instance of a "special" map - settings combo almost guaranteeing points.

[Swimmerdude99]

You guys sounds like a bunch of nerds...

And I'm into it

[rockfist]

I agree almost no setting guarantees a win against top competition, if you re-read what I wrote I said out of four specialist maps the average wins should be 2.5-3.0, which if you get 3-1 is a big advantage in CL.

[Jdsizzleslice]

You guys sounds like a bunch of nerds...

And I'm into it

+1

[Extreme Ways]

Our warthreads are generally most interesting when we're a bit frustrated, esp vs FALL and FOED.

[Fyrdraca]

Haha, at least this thread is getting more chatter than most FOED threads ever do.

We are generally a quiet bunch, aside from JP and myself who could argue math and stats with a chair.

I do find war planning to be such an underrated part of this game though, especially against top tier clans. It’s easy to fall into the trap of sending the same games over and over again, which is why I’m glad we have groovy and JP to do the heavy lifting of putting out maps that give us our best shot to win.

Needless to say, I’m pumped for this war.

[Caymanmew]

Haha, at least this thread is getting more chatter than most FOED threads ever do.

We are generally a quiet bunch, aside from JP and myself who could argue math and stats with a chair.

I do find war planning to be such an underrated part of this game though, especially against top tier clans. It’s easy to fall into the trap of sending the same games over and over again, which is why I’m glad we have groovy and JP to do the heavy lifting of putting out maps that give us our best shot to win.

Needless to say, I’m pumped for this war.

For sure this. War planning often can be the difference maker in a matchup of equally skilled clans.

The time and thought needed to correctly plan a war is enormous. As someone who has done it I've realized the small details can oftentimes make the difference. Who works well with who, do you send a map once or twice, how do you manage game loads across multiple competitions to avoid burnout while maximizing your chance to win everything you're competing in. You need to scout each opponent not only to look for weaknesses but to identify which of your strengths will likely pan out best.

Honestly even bare bone war planning can take hours over the course of a war when you consider the time to type messages clan members for thoughts and sorting through the replies. More detailed planning that you'd see out of top clans involves potentially hours scouting on top of highly selective / considered war planning.

Only those who have done it truly know the effort it takes. Major props to all those who do it, especially for a top clan. It is hard work.

[ElricTheGreat]

So to summarize ...

It has been agreed that all games that FOED starts 1st will be assigned a big W right away

And we are also permitted to some W's when we start 2nd?

I think I understand ... but seriously .. couldn't y'all have used less words to come to the agreement?



cannot forget to use the proper emojis

[Chariot of Fire]

Haha, at least this thread is getting more chatter than most FOED threads ever do.

We are generally a quiet bunch, aside from JP and myself who could argue math and stats with a chair.

I do find war planning to be such an underrated part of this game though, especially against top tier clans. It’s easy to fall into the trap of sending the same games over and over again, which is why I’m glad we have groovy and JP to do the heavy lifting of putting out maps that give us our best shot to win.

Needless to say, I’m pumped for this war.

For sure this. War planning often can be the difference maker in a matchup of equally skilled clans.

The time and thought needed to correctly plan a war is enormous. As someone who has done it I've realized the small details can oftentimes make the difference. Who works well with who, do you send a map once or twice, how do you manage game loads across multiple competitions to avoid burnout while maximizing your chance to win everything you're competing in. You need to scout each opponent not only to look for weaknesses but to identify which of your strengths will likely pan out best.

Honestly even bare bone war planning can take hours over the course of a war when you consider the time to type messages clan members for thoughts and sorting through the replies. More detailed planning that you'd see out of top clans involves potentially hours scouting on top of highly selective / considered war planning.

Only those who have done it truly know the effort it takes. Major props to all those who do it, especially for a top clan. It is hard work.

Nice words mate.

[Arama86n]

We are generally a quiet bunch, aside from JP and myself who could argue math and stats with a chair.

That caused me to involuntarily expel some coffee...

[rockfist]

I think war planning is a big part of the equation. Having done it and gotten it wrong and right, I know things go into it that most clan members don't even need to think about. Its a lot like being a coach for football (soccer), except you get to be a player coach. Sometimes its more fun just being a player.

[PereiroSaus]

You guys sounds like a bunch of nerds...

And I'm into it

+1

+2

[loutil]

Again, of course on that game drop and 1st turn are significant. And when an elite team on that map gets advantageous drop, there is often nothing the other side can do.
However, an elite team can also overcome a bad drop, even vs another high level team if played just slightly better.
I also will not comment if there was something your side could have done in this game.

, ok. I predicted your entire play in our game chat. We had no effective block once you had that absurd stack after 2 turns and nothing we could have done to prevent it.

Sure, this one was easy. So if you are specifically referring to this game in your assessment that skill didn’t matter, I could buy it.

But that’s not what your original comment sounded like to me.

My original comment only said it was a strange map/settings combination that allowed for 3 players to be taken out in the first round. Also stated that going first was a big advantage. Where did I say anything about skill or the lack thereof?

My second comment was:

I am sure your team is quite good on those settings. However, there was no skill involved in our game when you take out 3 of us in round 1. Positional drop and going first is all that was needed.

Specifically referring to our game.

I will add: against people not familiar with that map or unlimited forts, you should have a strong advantage. While you may play that map better than our team, I do not believe it would be by any significant level. That map requires time and a little game theory to run the multitude of scenarios to determine best probable outcomes. For those reasons, I like it as I enjoy that side of the game. However, I believe that playing it with unlimited forts steals some of the tactical nuances that otherwise would be there. With your setting it is blitz or be blitzed.