Powerless mafia, mafia win

[blacky365]

Is there a story behind those remarks?

Tell him Ragian.

Tell who? Skoffin? She a girl, mate.

him her? who cares? Skoffin is from this point onward dubbed as him!

Surely, in the gender neutral world we now live in, we should be referred to as "it"

[jfm10]

perhaps its best i step away from this game.

[aage]

perhaps its best i step away from this game.

Why?

[jfm10]

perhaps its best i step away from this game.

Why?

I would never be able to write the way that is needed to play properly.

[dgz345]

perhaps its best i step away from this game.

Why?

I would never be able to write the way that is needed to play properly.

doesnt mean you can't adapt evolve overcome

[aage]

I think the only way to learn is by trying, but if you don't want to play that's your call.

[Skoffin]

perhaps its best i step away from this game.

Why?

I would never be able to write the way that is needed to play properly.

Hey mate, for the record typing out long sentences like Pika is not necessary to be considered playing properly. The fact that you post and put effort into what you are saying is playing properly, and note that Pika has been playing mafia for years - no one expects you to play like he does, you are new to this. Even other long-time players do not necessarily play the same way. I think playing a non-flavour game would be good for you, and usually it takes a few games under your belt before you really start to develop. I personally think it would be a shame if you left us - and while it is entirely your choice on whether you play or not, I ask you to reconsider.

[DirtyDishSoap]

Sign me up you potatos

[DirtyDishSoap]

perhaps its best i step away from this game.

Why?

I would never be able to write the way that is needed to play properly.

doesnt mean you can't adapt evolve overcome

[Ragian]

How's your "no lynch D1" gambit gonna go in a powerless mafia, DDS?

[Pikanchion]

How's your "no lynch D1" gambit gonna go in a powerless mafia, DDS? :D

If we start with an even number of players it's actually a sensible decision this time around...

[Skoffin]

Don't you dare

[Ragian]

What happens D2, then? We do the same with nothing learned?

[Pikanchion]

For the sake of simplicity of explanation I will assume we have only enough players for 1 Scum:

The chance of Town lynching correctly is 1/x where x is the number of players alive.
Town loses if the number of living players falls below 3 and the Mafia player has not been lynched.
Town has complete control over how many people die each night: If Town lynches then the number of players is reduced by 2 (the lynch plus the night kill), if not then the number of players is reduced by 1.

• If there are 3 players remaining then Town has 1/3 chance of lynching correctly, not lynching or lynching incorrectly brings the number of players below 3 and results in a loss. (33.3% overall victory chance if Town lynches)
• If there are 4 players remaining then Town has 1/4 chance of lynching correctly, lynching incorrectly brings the number of players below 3 and results in a loss. No Lynch brings the total number of players to 3, keeping Town in the game, with now a 1/3 chance of lynching correctly. (25% overall victory chance if Town lynches, 33.3% if not)
• If there are 5 players remaining then Town has 1/5 chance of lynching correctly, and if they mislynch then another 1/3 chance tomorrow. (46.7% overall victory chance if Town lynches)
• If there are 6 players remaining then Town has 1/6 chance of lynching correctly, and if they mislynch then another 1/4 chance tomorrow. If they instead No Lynch then the chance of lynching correctly tomorrow is 1/5, with another 1/3 the day after. (37.5% overall victory chance if Town lynches, 46.7% if not)
  and so on...

With more Mafia players the probabilities and minimum threshold are different but as they do not get additional kills each night the general pattern is unchanged.

[DoomYoshi]

Having only one scum gives you an SK. It's basically just a random kill, since town has nothing to go off.

[Ragian]

I get (some) maths, but the point I'm making is how to pinpoint scum when not lynching...

[Pikanchion]

I get (some) maths, but the point I'm making is how to pinpoint scum when not lynching...

The number of mislynches before losing does not change if you No Lynch on an even number of players alive, so the number of lynches made overall during the game does not change, and the Town gets the same amount of lynch-result based information either way, but with an additional Mafia kill to analyse.

Say you have 6 players left.
-Lynching gives one lynch worth of actionable information plus whatever may be assessed by the night kill (primarily that the person killed is not the Mafia, but also pattern analysis to some extent), then you have 4 players left the next day, lynching again ends the game one way or another. Overall you gain the information from only one lynch and one night kill before the game ends.
-Not lynching gives whatever may be assessed by the night kill and leaves us with 5 remaining, Town can then lynch, gaining one lynch worth of actionable information plus what can be gleamed from an additional night kill. Then you have 3 players left and the game will end that night. Overall you gain the information from one lynch and two night kills before the game ends. You also have an additional day worth of talking in the thread.

Town never benefits in any way by lynching on an even number of players compared to the next odd number down. Think of it this way, if one were to treat the No Lynch day and night that follows as having never happened then compared to a game where the Town lynched every night:
1. The game lasts the same number of days and nights
2. The game features the same number of lynches
3. The game will have the same number of night kills
However!
4. Town will have a higher probability of lynching correctly every single night.

[dgz345]

If anyone wants the maths.

If we assume we are 10 players with 1 scum.

If we lynch every day the chance to only lynch town is
9/10*7/8*5/6*3/4=0,492 so town chance to win is 1-P so 50,8%

If we don't lynch first day the odds will be
8/9*6/7*4/5*2/3=0,406 so here town would have 59,4% chance of winning.

[dgz345]

If my maths are correct.

[Ragian]

Okay. If you say so... I don't know how to get valuable evidence from a night kill as opposed to lynching.

[Pikanchion]

It's not opposed to, you get both, that's the whole point.

[dgz345]

Okay. If you say so... I don't know how to get valuable evidence from a night kill as opposed to lynching.

the thing is that you just ignore D1 and in the case with 10 players the win rate increase with ~9%

the reason for that is that the game is over when town lynches when there is 4 or 3 left. therefor its better odds to be at 3 than 4

as mafia would be 1/3 instead of 1/4 and all the lynches before will also increase in odds

[aage]

Okay. If you say so... I don't know how to get valuable evidence from a night kill as opposed to lynching.

It’s not about information, it’s just pure stats. As town, there is no difference in the amount of mislynches you have if it’s 8town1scum or 9town1scum. You still have 3 mislynches (or 4 lynch chances) in those games: 8 to 6 to 4 to 2 towns left (lylo), or 9 to 7 to 5 to 3 towns left (lylo), because if the day starts with 1 town and 1 scum the town gets endgamed.

On the other hand, in town A (8T1S) the odds of mislynching are lower because on each game day the amount of towns is lower than in town B (9T1S). 8/9 is lower than 9/10.

Basically you can skip day one lynch in town B to manipulate the amount of towns you have without changing the amount of mislynches, making the odds town wins higher.

The same applies to a game where it is known there are 3 town and 1 scum, if the towns disagree about who to lynch. Better to let scum shoot someone and increase your base winning odds from 1/4 to 1/3.

[Ragian]

Okay, all's good, then.

*looks around sheepishly*

[DirtyDishSoap]

How's your "no lynch D1" gambit gonna go in a powerless mafia, DDS?

Like it always does. With me coming up with a bomb ass victory.

Don't you dare

Mad cuz bad.
<3