[CC5] TOFU vs. KORT - 35-26 - TOFU Win FINAL 9/19

Dualta · Post by **Dualta** » Sun Jul 12, 2015 12:20 am

Chariot of Fire wrote:Just wanted to drop in and say.....

GOOOOOOOO TOFUUUUUUU!!!!!!!!!!

Dear KORT. Did you miss me?

Back at your old tricks, I see

hopalong · Post by **hopalong** » Sun Jul 12, 2015 11:27 am

Chariot of Fire wrote:Dear KORT. Did you miss me?

so, this means that CoF approves of the name change from TOFU to KORT?

rockfist · Post by **rockfist** » Sun Jul 12, 2015 4:38 pm

We are at 22-15 now. We have offically improved from CC4. Just need to cobble together nine more.

Arama86n · Post by **Arama86n** » Sun Jul 12, 2015 5:01 pm

Don't... mention... the war!

IcePack · Post by **IcePack** » Tue Jul 14, 2015 9:59 am

Has anyone reviewed the last 23 games to see where this is headed?

rockfist · Post by **rockfist** » Tue Jul 14, 2015 11:01 am

I have S&M ahead in 8, us ahead in 7, and 8 as even. Others will have it different. Those 8 games aren't exactly even but look close enough from an outsiders perspective (or in some cases an insider's as I am involved in two of the "even" games) that they could turn either way in a round or two.

Basically it is still up in the air, but I think we have more paths to victory than they do, which make sense with the current score of 22-16. Don't misinterpret this - they could still win.

Post by **fishydance** » Tue Jul 14, 2015 11:51 am

rockfist wrote:I have S&M ahead in 8, us ahead in 7, and 8 as even. Others will have it different. Those 8 games aren't exactly even but look close enough from an outsiders perspective (or in some cases an insider's as I am involved in two of the "even" games) that they could turn either way in a round or two.

Basically it is still up in the air, but I think we have more paths to victory than they do, which make sense with the current score of 22-16. Don't misinterpret this - they could still win.

This is a pretty good assessment of where things stand.

rockfist · Post by **rockfist** » Thu Jul 16, 2015 1:05 pm

S&M/KORT has some wins coming in. Those were included in my above estimates (of course that is still good for them as a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush). I have not seen any major changes to the games that would radically alter my estimate from two posts above this.

Doc_Brown · Post by **Doc_Brown** » Fri Jul 17, 2015 10:49 am

Here's my latest updated. The score has tightened up a bit, but the next 3 wins are likely to go our way. The 4 Likely TOFU games all look quite solid. Also, FNA trips and Baltic Crusade appear to be in good shape and should move to Likely TOFU soon. That gets us to 29. We need two more out of the following (ordered based on what appears to me most likely wins):

Feudal Epic looks like it leans our way based on number of territories and deploys, though I realize pink holds Kex's castle.
FracChina looks like it's been gradually drifting our way (though clearly still very close).
Alaska probably is slight advantage to us, but it's tough to call either way until the ships come into play.
Hive Quads also looks very close with a very slight advantage our way.
New Zealand is interesting. We hold almost the entire north island, and they've managed to nearly kick us off the southern island. We have a lead in bonuses, but cards are becoming a larger issue. We'll see.
Hive quads looks deadlocked right now.
Arms Race is escalating, so that one could flip either way in another couple rounds.
It may still be possible to flip CR trips, FNA quads, or ProChi.

GAME STATUS
Batch 1 + TB
Result: 10-11 (KORT)
Batch 2 - Result: 9-6
Forecast: 13-7 (TOFU)
Batch 3 - Result: 4-4
Forecast: 9-8 (TOFU)

Likely TOFU
Game 15717044 - Trench Warfare trips,NS,A,F,Tr - B2
Game 15717063 - Pot Mosbi quads,NS,A,F,Tr - B2
Game 15755946 - Imperium Romanum trips,NS,C,F - B3
Game 15755960 - Cricket quads,E,C,F,Tr - B3
Advantage TOFU
Game 15717064 - Feudal Epic quads,FR,C,F,Tr - B2
Game 15717057 - Fractured China quads,NS,C,F - B2
Game 15755412 - First Nations America trips,NS,C,F - B3
Game 15755425 - Hive quads,NS,C,F - B3
Game 15755421 - Baltic Crusades trips,NS,C,F - B3
Even
Game 15755397 - New Zealand dubs,E,C,F,Tr - B3
Game 15755957 - Dist of Alaska quads,NS,C,F - B3
Game 15755408 - Hive trips,NS,C,F - B3
Advantage KORT
Game 15716349 - Conquer Rome trips,NS,C,F - B2
Game 15755427 - First Nations America quads,NS,C,F - B3
Game 15755387 - Arms Race dubs,E,C,F,Tr - B3
Game 15755947 - Prohibition Chicago trips,NS,C,F - B3
Likely KORT
Game 15755402 - Conquer Rome dubs,NS,C,F - B3

Doc_Brown · Post by **Doc_Brown** » Fri Jul 17, 2015 11:00 am

This has tightened up a good bit, but probably the next 3 wins to come in will be for TOFU. I have this at about 29-24 among games with a pretty good lean either way. My best guess is that we'll end up with a TOFU win 33-28 (assuming a roughly even split of tied games).

rockfist · Post by **rockfist** » Fri Jul 17, 2015 11:45 am

I'd be happy with 31-30, as long as we have 31. Just want the win...the margin isn't important to me.

betiko · Post by **betiko** » Tue Jul 21, 2015 2:50 am

So basically kort has to win 7/9.. That seems awfully difficult.

rockfist · Post by **rockfist** » Tue Jul 21, 2015 11:44 am

Difficult, yes. Impossible, no they are KORT/S&M.

I'd say its more like 6/8 now as one game has moved from up in the air towards them in a major way.

rockfist · Post by **rockfist** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 11:12 am

24-23 now. I have us ahead in five games, KORT/S&M ahead in three, and six even (or thereabouts). Depending on what order games finish they could take the lead here for a while. Some people on our side have the break-down slightly different.

Lets get some more chatter in here....the other semi-final thread is rapidly approaching this one in # of posts.

IcePack · Post by **IcePack** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 11:53 am

We didn't have a merger to announce in our thread otherwise we might be there already

Arama86n · Post by **Arama86n** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 11:55 am

They are the newly baked bagel, to our stale, yesterdays bread.

rockfist · Post by **rockfist** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 11:59 am

IcePack wrote:We didn't have a merger to announce in our thread otherwise we might be there already

I believe I have contributed to both...not going to count my posts though.

catnipdreams · Post by **catnipdreams** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 12:34 pm

catnipdreams · Post by **catnipdreams** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 12:36 pm

catnipdreams · Post by **catnipdreams** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 12:38 pm

catnipdreams · Post by **catnipdreams** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 12:42 pm

catnipdreams · Post by **catnipdreams** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 12:43 pm

A day in my life

nap
chase prey
torture the puppy
nap

MudPuppy · Post by **MudPuppy** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 12:51 pm

catnipdreams wrote:torture the puppy

Owww!!! Quit it!

xroads · Post by **xroads** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 7:29 am

Tied, 24-24

rockfist · Post by **rockfist** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 8:53 am

Indeed, but we are not done yet

[CC5] TOFU vs. KORT - 35-26 - TOFU Win FINAL 9/19

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