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StorrZerg wrote:if games have been 50% town and 50% mafia your analogy makes sense.
there is multitude of reasons why lynching is good vs "rng"
I would want to look into the people who wish to lynch the inactives as this is always a bad play, I don't know how many more times I have to explain myself in every fucking game I play. Let the inactives get replaced or modkilled. They should never be lynched ever as we can make the assumption that the modkill would give us an extra "lynch"
StorrZerg wrote:
strike wolf mafia game
virus lynched day 1
mtamburini wrote:The only discussion thus far that I think was worthy talking about was whether or not the people who have not confirmed in the thread or not should be lynched into.
I would want to look into the people who wish to lynch the inactives as this is always a bad play, I don't know how many more times I have to explain myself in every fucking game I play. Let the inactives get replaced or modkilled. They should never be lynched ever as we can make the assumption that the modkill would give us an extra "lynch"
If an inactive is mafia and modkilled then awesome we get a shot at a 2 for 1 mafia lynch day 1. If the inactive player is town we lose a town which is bad but we still have a good chance of lynching mafia outside them.
Metsfanmax wrote:StorrZerg wrote:if games have been 50% town and 50% mafia your analogy makes sense.
That particular comment was in response to mtam's assumption that he is good at scumhunting. If on any particular conclusion he makes he is not more than 50% confident on his conclusion, he's not actually scumhunting anymore.there is multitude of reasons why lynching is good vs "rng"
Ok.I would want to look into the people who wish to lynch the inactives as this is always a bad play, I don't know how many more times I have to explain myself in every fucking game I play. Let the inactives get replaced or modkilled. They should never be lynched ever as we can make the assumption that the modkill would give us an extra "lynch"
That's fine, but don't act like there's no useful information from lynching inactives. The whole basis for the D1 lynch is that it tells us something interesting about who voted for the lynch target and who didn't. That's true whether we lynch an inactive or lynch someone who "slips."
HotShot53 wrote:StorrZerg wrote:
strike wolf mafia game
virus lynched day 1
Ah, so there was one... although in re-reading it, virus almost didn't get lynched, except he said he was a one-shot vig and would shoot someone random night 1, which made it more beneficial to lynch him than to leave him alive, whether he was town or not lol. So I'd put that on the rare exception list; it's still unlikely other than in a rare case.mtamburini wrote:The only discussion thus far that I think was worthy talking about was whether or not the people who have not confirmed in the thread or not should be lynched into.
I would want to look into the people who wish to lynch the inactives as this is always a bad play, I don't know how many more times I have to explain myself in every fucking game I play. Let the inactives get replaced or modkilled. They should never be lynched ever as we can make the assumption that the modkill would give us an extra "lynch"
If an inactive is mafia and modkilled then awesome we get a shot at a 2 for 1 mafia lynch day 1. If the inactive player is town we lose a town which is bad but we still have a good chance of lynching mafia outside them.
If someone is going to be replaced/mod killed, then yeah, no reason to lynch them. If someone is posting just enough to get by, but hardly anything and nothing constructive... then that's the inactive I would go for if no-one has done anything scummy yet. At the very least, it usually gets them active again.
mtam wrote:How does lynching someone who is already going to die a good thing ?
Mets wrote:it tells us something interesting about who voted for the lynch target and who didn't.
mtamburini wrote:Metsfanmax wrote:The way to think about it is that psychologically we like to build patterns. We all remember that time that we successfully found scum on D1, so we convince ourselves that we are good at seeing the right patterns, even though most of the time we lynch a townie on D1 and we unintentionally ignore that, chalking it up to bad luck.
I suspect that if you did the statistics on games, you would find that mafia is not lynched more often than you would expect based on random chance. This is because there's so little information available on D1, and the information that you do have can easily be misinterpreted without corroborating evidence, so that you are about as likely to lynch mafia as if you had turned on a RNG.
What I have decoded this is that you call it a crapshoot because your are not confident enough in your skills to scumhunt.
Iron Butterfly wrote:mtamburini wrote:Metsfanmax wrote:The way to think about it is that psychologically we like to build patterns. We all remember that time that we successfully found scum on D1, so we convince ourselves that we are good at seeing the right patterns, even though most of the time we lynch a townie on D1 and we unintentionally ignore that, chalking it up to bad luck.
I suspect that if you did the statistics on games, you would find that mafia is not lynched more often than you would expect based on random chance. This is because there's so little information available on D1, and the information that you do have can easily be misinterpreted without corroborating evidence, so that you are about as likely to lynch mafia as if you had turned on a RNG.
What I have decoded this is that you call it a crapshoot because your are not confident enough in your skills to scumhunt.
I am sorry but day one scum hunting has less to do with skill then it does in being lucky. Nothing is 100% certain till someone flips. Sure over time one develops a sense of what to look for a gut instinct if you will but I hardly call it a skill. I consider myself a good player. Some may agree and some may disagree. I cant tell you how many times I have thought someone scum day one only to be surprised at how wrong I was. The reverse holds true.
I always hate arrogant statements made by players that raise their level of play while at the same time belittling others. While you are entitled to your opinion of how good you are unless you have statistics to back it up its all hot air. You had Storr dead to rights on day one on Streakers last game and he won the game. A skilled player would have hammered him home. You did not. /rant off *grin*.
So tell me does my statement make me town or mafia? Explain to us how you you tell who is who day one.
StorrZerg wrote:i think what mtamb is trying to get at, is less QQ about what happens day 1 if we lynch a townie, and more pew pew on trying to lynch a scum.
as for your statement making you town or mafia, neither. Imo it isn't relieving as to the current game at hand, and your stance on who you want lynched. Its a general point of view on how you feel about the game/ player statements.
Mr. Squirrel wrote:pmchugh wrote:BUMP- one more fool needed
One fool reporting for duty!
StorrZerg wrote:i think what mtamb is trying to get at, is less QQ about what happens day 1 if we lynch a townie, and more pew pew on trying to lynch a scum.
as for your statement making you town or mafia, neither. Imo it isn't relieving as to the current game at hand, and your stance on who you want lynched. Its a general point of view on how you feel about the game/ player statements.
Iron Butterfly wrote:StorrZerg wrote:i think what mtamb is trying to get at, is less QQ about what happens day 1 if we lynch a townie, and more pew pew on trying to lynch a scum.
as for your statement making you town or mafia, neither. Imo it isn't relieving as to the current game at hand, and your stance on who you want lynched. Its a general point of view on how you feel about the game/ player statements.
You are correct sir. However I needed to say it. So lets cut to brass tax then shall we.
Vote Colton
Perhaps he is telling the truth but from my experience it seems more often then not when someone uses that excuse they turn out to be mafia. He missed the first three days only to say nothing when he did post.
mtamburini wrote:StorrZerg wrote:i think what mtamb is trying to get at, is less QQ about what happens day 1 if we lynch a townie, and more pew pew on trying to lynch a scum.
as for your statement making you town or mafia, neither. Imo it isn't relieving as to the current game at hand, and your stance on who you want lynched. Its a general point of view on how you feel about the game/ player statements.
No shit lol, however the discussion on whether or not to lynch in inactives or not is a way of how I like to scumhunt. Voting them off completely I think is bad but you can generally get some sort of feel where people stand on it and why it helps reveal their alignment.
Having said that where's your read on charm nerd, I think she rolled scum this time. Her towniness is very apparent early on and I've not seen that.
mtamburini wrote:Iron Butterfly wrote:StorrZerg wrote:i think what mtamb is trying to get at, is less QQ about what happens day 1 if we lynch a townie, and more pew pew on trying to lynch a scum.
as for your statement making you town or mafia, neither. Imo it isn't relieving as to the current game at hand, and your stance on who you want lynched. Its a general point of view on how you feel about the game/ player statements.
You are correct sir. However I needed to say it. So lets cut to brass tax then shall we.
Vote Colton
Perhaps he is telling the truth but from my experience it seems more often then not when someone uses that excuse they turn out to be mafia. He missed the first three days only to say nothing when he did post.
Why did you not give the same read on DD, I feel that both their confirms had similar bases but you decided to only talk about Colton
dd515087 wrote:Serious talk about a mass claim this early? That's crazy IMO, mafia would know exactly who to target.
No shit lol, however the discussion on whether or not to lynch in inactives or not is a way of how I like to scumhunt.
Voting them off completely I think is bad but you can generally get some sort of feel where people stand on it and why it helps reveal their alignment.
Metsfanmax wrote:Sure IB, but understand how thin that is. It may be a justification if we have to choose between dd and colton, but that's an artificial choice that we don't have to abide by, and I certainly do not plan to. Storr says "we should really try to narrow down the suspects?" What do you think is going on here? We are aware of what mafia is about, we don't need to be reminded that part of the day process is finding a lynch. It looks rather suspicious of you to vote someone and offhandedly remind us how we all need to get our act together, while at the same time creating this artificial binary between dd and colton. Most of the time, people who are inactive on D1 actually do have a legitimate excuse for it, they aren't intentionally trying to scummarine. Meanwhile, mtam is reinforcing the same dichotomy, while at the same time he's supposed to be this excellent scum hunter. You can't "hunt" someone who isn't even making posts.
Meanwhile, mtam throws a hissy fit about how he has to explain in every single game that lynching inactives is bad, and then comes up with this bullshit?No shit lol, however the discussion on whether or not to lynch in inactives or not is a way of how I like to scumhunt.
And then after arguing with me about it, literally makes exactly the same point I made about the value of lynching inactives?Voting them off completely I think is bad but you can generally get some sort of feel where people stand on it and why it helps reveal their alignment.
Screw that. vote mtam.
Iron Butterfly wrote:dd515087 wrote:Serious talk about a mass claim this early? That's crazy IMO, mafia would know exactly who to target.
dd apologizes about forgetting about the game. 7 minutes later he offers this.As small as it is he at least offers something. It tells me he realized the mistake and posted. He reads the posts and offered his opinion with with a second post.
Colton says he has been busy with life. Gets jokey jokey and offers nothing. This is not about weather he is lying about real life. what bugs me is that three days gone and he seems to think it's ok to offer nothing because it's joke day.
As I said earlier 7 days is not a lot of time. Three days have already passed. Look at the bright side, at least we don't have to argue about lynching an inactive.
mtamburini wrote:Iron Butterfly wrote:dd515087 wrote:Serious talk about a mass claim this early? That's crazy IMO, mafia would know exactly who to target.
dd apologizes about forgetting about the game. 7 minutes later he offers this.As small as it is he at least offers something. It tells me he realized the mistake and posted. He reads the posts and offered his opinion with with a second post.
Colton says he has been busy with life. Gets jokey jokey and offers nothing. This is not about weather he is lying about real life. what bugs me is that three days gone and he seems to think it's ok to offer nothing because it's joke day.
As I said earlier 7 days is not a lot of time. Three days have already passed. Look at the bright side, at least we don't have to argue about lynching an inactive.
I think the more obvious point which I thought storr picked up on like I did was that DD read his msg and Colton did not. Meaning DD saw his role and choose not to participate in the first couple of days until prodded. This is more scum indicative than coltons play thus far.
VOTE DD
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