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Iliad wrote:The upside of calling everyone scum and making 1000 predictions is that statistically you should get a few right.
UltrasPlot wrote:Hotshot53 (1) - Crasp
Streaker (1) - Pancakemix
aage (2) - Hotshot53, Streaker
Zivel (1) - mtamburini
Whatsausage (1) - Storrzerg
dd515087 (2) - Zivel, ArmyofGod
Interestng... there's no real wagon building up. Seems to me like scum votes are scattered or they have not voted at all... as yesterday was very scum bandwagon filled. Now, mtam and dd are virtually confirmed same alignment therefore:
6. aage
8.Ultrasplot
10.Whatsausage
12.Anamainiacks
14.dd515187
16.Strikewolf
17. TFO
Highlighted here is a potential mafia team which actually makes quite a bit of sense. Streaker's claim of blocking me is weak as I had claimed no Night action Day One. dd and mtam could be scum lover and reviver (hence why mtam's power is unlimited). Whatsausage is yet to claim (don't yet... no need) but also pushed me for lynch.
UltrasPlot wrote:The interesting thing is that HotShot and Streaker quite nearly counterclaimed each other, Streaker potentially hoping for a HotShot lynch. DD has been shying from proving his commuter role (which makes little to no sense... HotShot is claimed jk and if he doesn't guard you next night we have confirmed scum...) mtam has been... well... crazy. ALTHOUGH he argued in my favor D1, his argument was so ill-presented that it had an almost negative effect - all it did was give him pretext for not pushing Ultra the next day.
UltrasPlot wrote:Now what do all of these have in common? They were on the initial Ultra wagon and the AoG wagon, with the exception of mtam, who called for an AoG lynch and then everyone took ex post facto evidence without consideration of why he pushed initially. At day end the quadruplet's votes were all on what are now confirmed town by death. None of them made extremely insightful posts.
Assuming this is true, the votes are 1 aage; 1 Zivel; 2 yet to cast. I suspect we will see a similar strategy today to gather a mislynch: Streaker pushes aage (he has already done this but the wagon lost its steam); mtam pushes Zivel until he slips (not happened yet); and the other two join on the wagon, just like before.
Consider this conjecture and see if it fits together well.
Zivel wrote:OK, I am going to express my case on dd5 because I said I would, and I still read him scum but information is moving fast in this game and I am a little behind
Day 1:
Rides the wagon on Ultra and tunnels him pretty bad, even after the lovers claim.
He claims lover third, with a claim of Romeo and Juliet and only being able to talk at night. Easy claim to make up, weird that they can only talk at night. Convenient for a mafia claim. Scum pair is third to claim, why would he claim? Well my guess is he was going to try and get an Ultra lynch, throw some confusion into the mix and try and prove that Ultra was the scum pair. He also gets a scum bud that he can claim town with.
Zivel wrote:dd515087 wrote:New thought: what if all of us who have claimed lovers are town and this is just an evil twist rishaed is throwing on us... We could all be screwed
I'm tired and going to bed, I have gone through almost everything. Here are some general reads:
This was his first list and does not really have any information attached to the reads. Safely played. Note he has Virus, AoG and Ultra all pegged as scummy, this is after the claims. He seems pretty certain that there is a scum pair and he has pegged Ultra/Virus
Zivel wrote:He then changes his vote to virus, thinking he can now get a two for one lynch. He says he has doubt over the play of Ultra and Virus but nowhere does he actually make a case. The best I can get is:dd515087 wrote:As for Ultra and virus... Did you skim through everything? They have been read as scum for numerous reasons: poor reads, weird votes, calling each other scum and then coming out as lovers... Do I need to say more? I will go back and quote everything if necessary, but if you read through the last 4ish pages you will find everything on them.
Which is basically sheeping others arguments. He has not made any interesting or original posts thus far in the game.
Zivel wrote:Then he questions PCM after my post about PCM. Sheeping most of the questions and backing up me and storr with little real new information.
He still has Ultra and Virus pegged as scum and then turns his attention to AoG.
This is about the time that Strike has a go at him, and he doesnt really respond well, claims commuter with little pressure and only 4? votes against him.
...
Swtiches vote to AoG.
Baiscally his day one consisted of him sheeping the early wagons and then pushing Ultra, Virus and AoG, all three are now very townie. He was never the lead and was always letting someone else take the fall. Both strike and PCM put some good pressure on him but him being a lover saved him from that lynch I would say. Lucky he claimed it.
In day 2 he has pretty much done even less, sheeping along with what ever wagon comes along.dd515087 wrote:ALSO, somewhat related (and this goes for everyone)... but HOW DO YOU NOT KNOW WHO MY LOVER IS??? IT IS VERY OBVIOUS
This is the post that got me really interested though. He is basically claiming Mtam is his lover here.
Zivel wrote:dd515087 wrote:I never said that. I would say that at the very beginning the mod said it may be unbalanced. I would also say that for all we know there are only 2 scum and the game is actually really balanced. Unlikely, but none of us know.
So you did say it....
Zivel wrote:dd515087 wrote:1.The other reviver wasn't a reviver in the same sense that mtam is claiming.
2. Mtam read virus as town all along. Why would he cause confusion if he believed this?
3. Lets do some math: You believe mtam can save a townie (making him townie). Lovers are confirmed the same alignment by the mod. Therefore, what is the logical conclusion here? Oh guess what, I'm townie.
Why did you need it to be said flat out that mtam and I are lovers? You and your scum buddies don't want to mess up with your NK? Everyone else had pretty much accepted it at this point. Hmm... Scummy
Also you changed your vote to streaker and then to me within an hour or so. Why the sudden flip?
1. it was pretty close, not a solid case but something I would of thought would of got Mtam interested. But he completely ignored it. The fact that they are different is interesting. Why does Mtam get a different and more powerful role than Virus who is basically in the same position as you. Infact you are more powerful than Ultra as well and I am happy to say that you are both more powerful than my lover and I. Why the discrepancy? Doesn't seem fair.
2. Because he should of reconsidered his read, his read was based on all lovers are town, which is nice and safe for you two. Someone claims something like that should of made him at least reconsider what he was reading.
3. You math goes out the window if I think you are both scum. Yes if Mtam is town then you are town, and if you dont get lynched then we will know if you are town tomorrow anyways.
Storr, if Mtam is alive tonight can you please consider watching him to see if he has any visitors. I would guess that any visitor to Mtam tonight would be a mafia roleblocker trying to set us up to lynch these two.
StorrZerg wrote:is it possible the mafia reside within
whatsausage
pcm
animaniacks
crasp
streaker
hmmm...
aage wrote:Never trust CYOC or pancake.
pancakemix wrote:Except that it's frustrating when I state I don't know how many times that I'm going to be limited and you complain that I don't make a mother of all posts every hour. The way I play this game takes time. Lots of it. Time I don't have. So when you not only complain that I don't make posts, but don't even bother responding to the ones I do make (and you still haven't!), I'm going to get frustrated and probably cuss you out. If you're going to ask me to not insult you, I expect to to show me at least some modicum of respect.
As for the ultra quote, the rest of your post was about AoG and I took it as such, which makes your lack of attribution only slightly disingenuous (especially because you asked me to do the same earlier. Again, the mutual respect thing).
Guise, dd's a dumb lynch. Don't do it.
StorrZerg wrote:is it possible the mafia reside within
whatsausage
pcm
animaniacks
crasp
streaker
hmmm...
Iliad wrote:The upside of calling everyone scum and making 1000 predictions is that statistically you should get a few right.
strike wolf wrote:Okay. That put a smile on my face.
dd515087 wrote:StorrZerg wrote:is it possible the mafia reside within
whatsausage
pcm
animaniacks
crasp
streaker
hmmm...
I'm getting much stronger scum vibes from the ones I highlighted in red. I think the lynch should come down to these three. Crasp needs to come back into the game
dd wrote:Except for the fact that I was the FIRST GODDAMN PERSON TO PUT A SCUM READ ON AoG.
Storr wrote:I harass a lot of people about activity, i don't think i'm singling you out, or making that many jabs about your activity as you might think. The last one in particular was an attack at others for failing to look at you for help in pushing me. They showed 0 interest in your push against me, it was less of a call out on your activity.
Storr wrote:I think i've responded to all your posts lately that has content pertaining to the game, and trying to avoid responding to items that are not relevant to the game / strike up more explosive reaction for no reason. (not egging you on etc). And again, the stuff i still haven't responded to, i likely won't respond to unless its pointed out directly by you, or by someone else. So if you still feel they are important, either just simply quote what you want me to respond to, link the post, or ask someone else to help you out.
Streaker wrote:Can someone explain why DD is a bad lynch? It seems for granted to some of you.
Furthermore, I still want to lynch Aage...
aage wrote:Never trust CYOC or pancake.
aage wrote:Never trust CYOC or pancake.
whatsausage
pcm
animaniacks
crasp
streaker
aage wrote: Maybe you're right, but since we receive no handlebars from the mod I think we should get some ourselves.
aage wrote:Lynching DD is dumb if mtam can prove his role tonight. Assuming all lovers have the same alignment, mtam giving his life to rez a dead townie will prove dd's alignment without a shadow of a doubt. Lynching DD will only result in getting info we would otherwise have gotten anyway. Let mtam die to a resurrection, rather than waste a lynch on it.
If at all possible I'd prefer the town redirector role to come back (if someone can re-sub into that role, since aog took nark's.. OH LOOK ITS KWANTON) rather than the otherwise useless lover.
Ultra, I don't get why you want to lynch controversial people rather than scummy people, and I don't get why that excludes Whatsausage as a lynch. You have more than enough suitable targets for tonight, including me apparently, so shoot those. We're not going really going to get 100% scum guarantee on people off any lynch, so I suggest you shoot to kill in order to provide that much-needed info for tomorrow's lynch. If we do end up lynching Sausage and he flips scum, you can look at the people who didn't want to lynch him.
PCM's remark on the Strike case echoes my thoughts. There's only something there if you're expecting to find it. Which Storr did, I do not doubt, but that doesn't make it a strong case.
whatsausage
pcm
animaniacks
crasp
streaker
You discount Strike easily after your case on him, did something change?
Seems slightly easy to assume everyone who targeted Mtam was town - not all mafia have killing actions. It would be a massive coincidence.
Currently I favour a Streaker lynch because (a) his claim is sketchy and (b) he wants me dead. Might even be the same reasons he has to vote for me.
On top of that, I read him as town after D1 because I agreed with his actions against Ultra. I do not agree with his D2 follow up where he completely distances himself from those cases. Ultra and Virus were scummy D1, no reason to distance yourself unless you are afraid of getting heat.
Iliad wrote:The upside of calling everyone scum and making 1000 predictions is that statistically you should get a few right.
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