Once Upon A Killer Mafia (14/17) A Writers Block:Endgame

[Whatsausage]

That is as in depth analysis as you can get at this point in the game. It is asking questions and it forcing people to think about motivations. That is town play, not 'I am getting scum vibes' with little to back up. I am finding storr town at the moment and I read that post and saw that he said what I was thinking so I quoted his post and sheeped along.

You need to come up with something more interesting than that to deflect my attention from your scum buddy Ultra

Oh no ultra! We've been found out!

The problems I have with what you quoted. (Requoted here and responses in green)

Pretty much your case on PCM so far... I thought you were throwing around the comments as a joke before, but we're clearly not joking around anymore. And he isn't asking people to vote for pcm anymore Your only justification for your scheme so far is pretty much "I've played mafia with him for a long time" (which means he's scum... how?), it doesn't, it was a p3 joke and that you "like to give him shit". All this after people have asked for proper support to your suspicions, and you in turn accuse them of skimming. The accusation of skimming was saying people missed the joke, as storr said he did
And you've basically ignored everything that everyone else has commented aside from their comments directed to you, which feels as though you're trying to take everyone's attention off the reads on each other, and going, "Stop all the constructive conversation! Let's all just vote PCM because I like to give him shit!" First part yes, second part no. He hasn't added much to anything else (although there hasn't been much else) but you keep acting like he is still trying to commence with his "scheme"

Well if you had read everything that's been said regarding why and how Day 1 is useful, then you needn't be asking this question. The information you're asking about can even be found on the same page as this post of yours. So if you're asking us to pressure the skimmers, you'd definitely be one of them.

Your play isn't necessarily scummy, but it sure isn't helpful or constructive at this point.

So even if we do end up settling for a no lynch, advocating it at this point is asking us to ignore/cut short all conversations so far, and totally remove possibility of any scum slips in the rest of Day 1 - of which we have 8.5 real days left, if I'm not wrong. I don't believe this is directed to anark anymore

I got a scum read from you being the second to agree with this. It mixes slight bandwagoning along with what I perceive to be a mostly poor argument (The only valid point being that it is most of what he has talked about, but that is really the nature of the beast on D1, especially when you are being targeted for it). It seemed to me like you were too quick to agree along with storr that you are buddying a little bit with him

FP'd by zivel 2x

[Streaker]

In a game with 17 players we will definitely have an info role, ffs.

Assuming 5 mafia (this is a liberal estimate): we are 12/5 right now. We lose one and 11/5 the next day, with cop info. The randlynch right now is utterly pointless, based off slips of the finger - something unreliable. Mafia is definitely playing carefully to NOT seem scummy. We have ZERO info right now. A townie is more likely to seem scummy Day One just because MAFIA are paying more attention to the game to not get lynched. Therefore I would much rather go in 11/5 than 10/5... since we CANNOT rule out extra mafia killing roles.

Also consider this:
If I were mafia why would I not hop onto a bandwagon? You guys seem to barely notice those, while the better play is called 'scummy.'

Yes, we will probably have an info role. He will have to decide between 16 players (no lynch scenario) on who to investigate. That gives him a 5/12 chance of finding scum (or fill in whatever number of mafia/third party in the game). How can you push for this 'reliable' information? Cop won't out himself when he finds a town, and a very good cop won't even claim on D2 when he finds scum.
And then i'm not even taking into account busdrivers, sanity, or other messy roles.

You are far too much focusing on role powers to decide the lynch, if any, then on playing the actual game. Like I said before, and what I said before was WORTH stating, why don't you just skip day phases alltogether except for a quick vote stage where you vote on whatever the claimed cop tells you to?

I'm not saying you are scum for advocating a No Lynch (even though bringing it up early on day 1 of day 1 is crazy). But you definitely deserve a wagon for that one, and if anything, THAT will give us information on who to lynch on D1.

Thinking about it, if we just lynch at random, that would actually increase the cop chances of finding scum (for those statistics discussions lol). I don't consider this a numbers game myself, maybe late game it can be just that.

[crasp]

Post Count as promised.
Hotshot 3
PCM 3
Mtam 11
Streaker 3
Virus 0
aage 4
storr 33
ultra 5
Zivel 9
whatsausage 4
AOG 10
Anamainiacks 2
crasp 8
DD 3
anarkist 7
strikewolf 7
Crazymilkshake 1

[Streaker]

Post count isn't everything. Content is.
Just look at this post, make that 4 for me.

[crasp]

I'm just here to watch you fight with someone, Storr.

*takes out the popcorn*

[crasp]

I'm just here to watch you fight with someone, Storr.

*takes out the popcorn*

Lol, advocating 'no lynch' before third day of the game? It might very well come to that, but you are basicly saying Hey Guys let's just not play this game and just do night actions and see what we come up with.
What will happen when there is no cop result, or a positive town check? No Lynch on D2?

Vote Ultra

In a game with 17 players we will definitely have an info role, ffs.

Assuming 5 mafia (this is a liberal estimate): we are 12/5 right now. We lose one and 11/5 the next day, with cop info. The randlynch right now is utterly pointless, based off slips of the finger - something unreliable. Mafia is definitely playing carefully to NOT seem scummy. We have ZERO info right now. A townie is more likely to seem scummy Day One just because MAFIA are paying more attention to the game to not get lynched. Therefore I would much rather go in 11/5 than 10/5... since we CANNOT rule out extra mafia killing roles.

Also consider this:
If I were mafia why would I not hop onto a bandwagon? You guys seem to barely notice those, while the better play is called 'scummy.'

Yes, we will probably have an info role. He will have to decide between 16 players (no lynch scenario) on who to investigate. That gives him a 5/12 chance of finding scum (or fill in whatever number of mafia/third party in the game). How can you push for this 'reliable' information? Cop won't out himself when he finds a town, and a very good cop won't even claim on D2 when he finds scum.
And then i'm not even taking into account busdrivers, sanity, or other messy roles.

You are far too much focusing on role powers to decide the lynch, if any, then on playing the actual game. Like I said before, and what I said before was WORTH stating, why don't you just skip day phases alltogether except for a quick vote stage where you vote on whatever the claimed cop tells you to?

I'm not saying you are scum for advocating a No Lynch (even though bringing it up early on day 1 of day 1 is crazy). But you definitely deserve a wagon for that one, and if anything, THAT will give us information on who to lynch on D1.

Thinking about it, if we just lynch at random, that would actually increase the cop chances of finding scum (for those statistics discussions lol). I don't consider this a numbers game myself, maybe late game it can be just that.

Post count isn't everything. Content is.
Just look at this post, make that 4 for me.

there is your contribution so far. I have already said that 2nd post with the nice safe scum vote is very suspicious. Your third post is alos just a repeat of what others are saying and as for your fourth, well what can i say. So your point is?
Your right post count itself isnt everything but combined with other things it can tell its own story. Like who panics when a post count is mentioned.FOS still on you streaker.

[StorrZerg]

good move crasp.
just a little heads up,since the game has started the mod has 6 posts. which includes vote counts.
He isn't even playing, he absolutely should have one of the lowest if not the lowest post counts.

Post count isn't everything. Content is.
Just look at this post, make that 4 for me.

Content is important, so is activity. So the snide comment, isn't really helping since crasp post about activity is helpful. So people posting, trying to generate content, trying to make reads are much more helpful in figuring out the game, than say someone who 1. hasn't posted, 2. only has a few posts and nothing is on topic.

[Army of GOD]

There are a few things that strike me as unfair about the statistics you use AoG.

1. A game this size is much more likely to have 4 mafia (maybe even 5) than 3 which would put the percentage closer to 23.5, yeah you're probably right. I'm still not a fan of those statistics though. Puts it right near 1/4.5.
2, You're statistics are based on a purely random lynch. We are actually talking about analyzing behavior and making informed decisions on who to vote for which assuming that town overall has good deductive abilities should increase the chances of making a good lynch. I guess, but honestly I think people put more confidence in their reads than they should. Just me being pessimistic, I guess.
3. Town have real claims, mafia have fake claims. If we do happen to make a town the first lynch candidate, that townie is more likely to have a convincing role that prevents us from lynching him than the mafia. So that also should be factored into the statistics. yeah but I don't think it's a good thing if we force a role townie to claim. If we out the cop, the doctor would have to save him every night because otherwise he'd be a target for the mafia's nightkill. that doesn't sound too good.
4. The cop/vig has the same percent chance of hitting scum as town does in their lynch N1 if we don't have anything to go on and unlike town lynches where the target would have time to claim and possibly convince people by their defense, the person the vig shoots is dead without further information. yeah but the cop doesn't kill people when he checks them. Also, with the vig, I would hope that a vig isn't stupid enough to kill randomly on N1. It takes some good sleuthing on their part, but I really just brought up the vig because people were claiming that lynching was the town's only way of killing scum. It isn't.
4a. Even if the cop does hit scum, they have a chance of hitting a godfather role (or even a miller role, if one is in the game), a framed target, redirecrted or the cop may have altered sanity. This means that overall the percentage that they hit scum and are able to tell us tomorrow is actually worse than the pure random odds presented through a random lynch (which as stated before is not what this would be). I guess, but that doesn't make me less confident in my no lynch vote
5. We can't guarantee that the cop will even live through the night to give his results so this should negatively impact the statistics for finding scum this way. true, but those odds are even less than us lynching mafia D1

all in all I know my no lynch vote has a 0% of actually happening, but it did provoke a few reactions. Specifically Storr who would rather have his head explode than vote no lynch, so I'm pretty suspicious of his "IM TOWN f*ck EVERYONE ELSE" attitude.

Also, right now, Ultra is giving me the strongest townie read. It's an incredibly stupid move for mafia to want a no lynch D1 because it immediately brings a negative, "you're obviously scum" reaction. like ultra said, I think bandwagoning on a person who recommended a no lynch is much worse than actually voting no lynch.

[Streaker]

Who's panicking? Simply stating what I did.

Meh, I always start off slow, and I'm not a very good player so hunting like some of you can from the start is beyond me, for now. Learning a lot though.

You can FoS me all you like, I got nothing to hide and i'm not afraid to defend myself if needed.
That said, I may not have contributed much, but definitely more helpfull then going after No Lynch from the start.

[Streaker]

Strike, you seem to be pushing for a Day One lynch, along with Zivel. Explain how you will get scum without any info. Although 11/5 (or 12/4) seems like a worse ratio, mafia probably has one or maybe even two one-shot kill roles.

Also, as I mentioned before, scumminess does not add up well Day One with little to no info. There was no Night Zero. There is nothing except glorified guessing. My vote stays for No Lynch.

You can add me to the list of pushing for Day One lynch.
I'll rebound that question there: how will we get any info with No Lynch? We might even get lucky. Assumptions about killing roles mean nothing on D1 if you don't know the setup. Leave this for morning of D2.

Glorified guessing? What game do you think this is? Chess?

[Whatsausage]

Also, right now, Ultra is giving me the strongest townie read. It's an incredibly stupid move for mafia to want a no lynch D1 because it immediately brings a negative, "you're obviously scum" reaction. like ultra said, I think bandwagoning on a person who recommended a no lynch is much worse than actually voting no lynch.

Your strongest town read, really? I'm not saying that ultra is scum because of that, and maybe this is just on principle, but I have a hard time with: "he made a bad move and scum wouldn't do something that bad so he must be town". I get that scum tend to be more careful, but they are just as capable of making bad plays.

[StorrZerg]

There are a few things that strike me as unfair about the statistics you use AoG.

1. A game this size is much more likely to have 4 mafia (maybe even 5) than 3 which would put the percentage closer to 23.5, yeah you're probably right. I'm still not a fan of those statistics though. Puts it right near 1/4.5.
2, You're statistics are based on a purely random lynch. We are actually talking about analyzing behavior and making informed decisions on who to vote for which assuming that town overall has good deductive abilities should increase the chances of making a good lynch. I guess, but honestly I think people put more confidence in their reads than they should. Just me being pessimistic, I guess.
3. Town have real claims, mafia have fake claims. If we do happen to make a town the first lynch candidate, that townie is more likely to have a convincing role that prevents us from lynching him than the mafia. So that also should be factored into the statistics. yeah but I don't think it's a good thing if we force a role townie to claim. If we out the cop, the doctor would have to save him every night because otherwise he'd be a target for the mafia's nightkill. that doesn't sound too good.
4. The cop/vig has the same percent chance of hitting scum as town does in their lynch N1 if we don't have anything to go on and unlike town lynches where the target would have time to claim and possibly convince people by their defense, the person the vig shoots is dead without further information. yeah but the cop doesn't kill people when he checks them. Also, with the vig, I would hope that a vig isn't stupid enough to kill randomly on N1. It takes some good sleuthing on their part, but I really just brought up the vig because people were claiming that lynching was the town's only way of killing scum. It isn't.
4a. Even if the cop does hit scum, they have a chance of hitting a godfather role (or even a miller role, if one is in the game), a framed target, redirecrted or the cop may have altered sanity. This means that overall the percentage that they hit scum and are able to tell us tomorrow is actually worse than the pure random odds presented through a random lynch (which as stated before is not what this would be). I guess, but that doesn't make me less confident in my no lynch vote
5. We can't guarantee that the cop will even live through the night to give his results so this should negatively impact the statistics for finding scum this way. true, but those odds are even less than us lynching mafia D1

all in all I know my no lynch vote has a 0% of actually happening, but it did provoke a few reactions. Specifically Storr who would rather have his head explode than vote no lynch, so I'm pretty suspicious of his "IM TOWN f*ck EVERYONE ELSE" attitude.

Also, right now, Ultra is giving me the strongest townie read. It's an incredibly stupid move for mafia to want a no lynch D1 because it immediately brings a negative, "you're obviously scum" reaction. like ultra said, I think bandwagoning on a person who recommended a no lynch is much worse than actually voting no lynch.

how can you claim its dumb thing for a mafia to do, when he hasn't played on this site. The way he expresses himself, thats his "social norm" to generally no lynch. How was he suppose to know what kind of reaction he would meet? Mafia would love to no lynch. Cause that means 0 chance of them having to do anything in the day phase to prevent a mafia from being lynched.

Lets go with reads, so what if people are over confident on day 1 reads on day 1. some of my reads are bound to be wrong, same with others. I would rather have someone that was incorrect about every read they gave, yet on each read they gave, they gave insight as to why they thought that person was that alignment. That is information, that is 100% better, even if its the wrong conclusion, than someone not giving reads. Other people can read that towns efforts in trying, and determine if its genuine or made up.

[StorrZerg]

Unvote
Vote virus90

[crasp]

Saw him as well.
Vote virue 90

[aage]

You need to come up with something more interesting than that to deflect my attention from your scum buddy Ultra

Oh no ultra! We've been found out!

This reply is a red flag to me, Zivel wasn't entirely joking I believe. I am glad, in a way, that Storr's presence has removed the infamous "joke vote stage" from the game, which I usually ignore. People trying to bring it back seem to not want to engage in discussion. It doesn't have anything to do with Storr lacking a sense of humour - it simply is daytime, and we should be searching for mafia, not pat each other on the back over jokes. What this line indicates is that WhatSausage subtly buddies up to Ultra without having a real reason to, if he were town. Ultra flipping town would actually put WS in a bad light right now, imo.

Also, right now, Ultra is giving me the strongest townie read. It's an incredibly stupid move for mafia to want a no lynch D1 because it immediately brings a negative, "you're obviously scum" reaction. like ultra said, I think bandwagoning on a person who recommended a no lynch is much worse than actually voting no lynch.

Your strongest town read, really? I'm not saying that ultra is scum because of that, and maybe this is just on principle, but I have a hard time with: "he made a bad move and scum wouldn't do something that bad so he must be town". I get that scum tend to be more careful, but they are just as capable of making bad plays.

I agree, classic WIFOM case... scum would never say something scummy, therefore scummy players are town --> playing scummy becomes a valid scum strategy. You might as well start the day off by yelling "Hi guise I'm mafia" and then say the same shit.
Proposing no lynch is wifom-y, and therefore it cannot really show anything... Still though, proposing no lynch so early in the day is bound to be related to Ultra's role and/or alignment, since I suspect it's related to some gambit he's trying to pull. By the end of this day I would at least like a claim, and preferably still a lynch. Daytime is the most dangerous for mafia, and any way of limiting daytime directly helps the mafia.


@AoG: robbing the town of a chance to lynch scum is always bad, and the only scenarios in which you should consider a no lynch is 5v3, 4v2 or 3v1, so that it changes into 4v3, 3v2 or 2v1. Especially in the latter, no lynch will end up giving the town a dramatic statistical advantage (25%->33%). Zivel explains that in his own analysis with slightly fewer words. Trying to get that advantage ahead of time makes no sense, since kill prevention may end up forcing another no-lynch upon the town, in which case you've just handed the mafia a retry.


Fp by Storr and Crasp, I take it you saw Virus on the "users browsing this form"-list?

[StorrZerg]

yep he was on and didnt do anything.

as for anark, ill wait till he does something more. he probably won't do anything though, and if thats the case then ill be sure to "attack him" for that.

[Streaker]

It's still early and pleeeenty of time left, Virus will have my vote for that scummarining (yes I have a thing with policy).

[rishaed]

- That one's easy: Mod, do the mafia have fakeclaims?

They may or may not this game.
I'll be sufficiently vague, because I answered a PM the same way.

[strike wolf]

I cant vote based on someone showing up and not voting. If it was known how many times I have been on the forum and didnt say anything, I would be lynched every game.

Question for Ultra and AoG. We go into night directly from a no lynxh without saying anything productive. Night produces no beneficial information that is brought forward. What then? We no Lynch again until we do have something?

[rishaed]

Vote Count:

Virus90 (2) - Storrzerg, Crasp
Ultrasplot (5) - Hotshot53, Streaker, Zivel, dd515087, Anamainiacks
Crasp (1) - Crazymilkshake5
Anarkistsdream (1) - Strikewolf
NoLynch (2) - Ultrasplot, ArmyofGod

With 17 alive it takes 9 to lynch. Deadline Nov. 8th.
Virus90 has been prodded.

[Army of GOD]

I get that scum tend to be more careful, but they are just as capable of making bad plays.

but this is just way too out in the open and I know what it's like to be in ultra's shoes because I've been lynched before in D1 after recommending a no lynch (and I was town obviously too). Either ultra is town genuinely suggesting no lynch or he is a super veteran and ballsy mafia player attempting quintuple reverse psychology. I'm going to lean towards the former.

Of course after I say this, he's going to to be lynched day 1 and end up being scum and then everyone's going to want to lynch me, but hey.

[strike wolf]

unvote forgot my vote was still on Nark. As far as Fake Claims, I tend to believe that town has the right to know if they are being used.

[pancakemix]

Now on that list, people who have been advocating a No Lynch day one:
Ultra, AOG
Skimming and missing the point:
Mtam
Dodging:
PCM, Anark
My town reads so far:
Storr, strike and Anark

Now it is day one and so this is all probably wrong but I am learning to play mafia according to strike's signature. Throw enough shit around and some will stick eventually.

Pretty sure I was vocal about how wrong Ultra was.

I cant vote based on someone showing up and not voting. If it was known how many times I have been on the forum and didnt say anything, I would be lynched every game.

Except virus has yet to post anything. That alone is reason enough to vote him. I will not do that at this juncture given the prod, but I cannot fault storr and crasp for doing so.

On fakes: Agree ith strike. We need to know what we're dealing with.

[Anarkistsdream]

I think it is a huge mistake to vote someone merely because they were online and read the thread... Maybe he was on a smartphone, which sucks to type on... Maybe he ran out of time. Admittedly, Virus is usually a more active player- i.e., in the past- but there are lots of times I have seen people keep up with the game and yet not post... Storr, what I see is you literally attacking each and every person you can and wait for what the response is... That makes you look scummy, because it makes it look like you are just trying to start bandwagon after bandwagon. If you were truly firm in the beliefs you held, you would not be so quick to give them up...

VOte: Storr

[StorrZerg]

I get that scum tend to be more careful, but they are just as capable of making bad plays.

but this is just way too out in the open and I know what it's like to be in ultra's shoes because I've been lynched before in D1 after recommending a no lynch (and I was town obviously too). Either ultra is town genuinely suggesting no lynch or he is a super veteran and ballsy mafia player attempting quintuple reverse psychology. I'm going to lean towards the former.

Of course after I say this, he's going to to be lynched day 1 and end up being scum and then everyone's going to want to lynch me, but hey.

Again i explained the situation, imo your reasoning doesn't have much base.
He has played mafia else where, its more than likely his habits are from his previous location on playing. Hence him suggesting no lynch isn't alignment indicative at all, same as you. Since you "always do it" So thats fine and all, but more than likely we will lynch someone today. So its important that people give reads today, even if they think they can't make "good reads" a read is a read, it allows others to judge you as well. Its important to find towns, and to find people acting scummy.