First turn rolls - decisive or not?

DiM · Post by **DiM** » Fri May 25, 2007 10:15 am

it happened to all of us. deploy our 3-5 reinfs in a terit and then we have to make the first attack 6-9 troops vs 1-3 troops.

what do you do? do you attack? what happens if in the first roll you lose 2. do you retreat?

a while back i saw a player attack with all his troops just to get a card. i've never seen such bad luck in my life.

he deployed 4 reinfs and attacked a terit with 3. lost everything without killing one. then he proceeded to use his remaining troops to attack neighbours in search of a card. he lost everything WITHOUT killing a single enemy troop. basically from his initial 40 troops (36 deployed + 4 reinfs) he was down to just 12 troops. this is crazy. and what are the odds of rolling such bad dice.

on the other hand i've seen cases where people got one terit in australia. deployed 3 troops there and proceeded to take out the other 3 australia terits without a single loss. so they killed 9 troops without a loss.

i never had such good rolls to take out several 3 army terits from the first round. i'm happy if i manage to kill at least one. but the bad rolls i've had lately just led me to desperation. my dice analizer stats went from rolling mostly 6's and 4's to rolling mostly 1s and 3s. not to mention the percentages of wins in Battle Outcomes are dropping like crazy.

so how important do you consider the rolls in the first round?

so if there are any math geniuses out there could you please calculate the chance of losing a 7vs3 battle and then 11 3vs3 battles without killing a single enemy?

Black Warior · Post by **Black Warior** » Fri May 25, 2007 10:35 am

well it is a probability in this thing first of all you have to think that the ratio of possible events to overcome the enemy is just not pure luck it's just the number of possibilities in your favor to a specific number of events!
Mathematic and simple!

KennyC · Post by **KennyC** » Fri May 25, 2007 10:55 am

It is nice to win the card on the first turn, but rarely the end of the game if you don't happen to get it. I roll until I do not have an advantage attacking anymore, so if I get down to 3 troops against 2, or 2 vs 1, I cut my losses and end the turn.

Velvecarrots · Post by **Velvecarrots** » Fri May 25, 2007 11:37 am

DiM wrote:so if there are any math geniuses out there could you please calculate the chance of losing a 7vs3 battle and then 11 3vs3 battles without killing a single enemy?

.2926 = chance of losing 2 armies attacking 3 dice vs. 2 dice
.4483 = chance of losing 2 armies attacking 2 dice vs. 2 dice

1
____________________ = 1 in approx. 177266 games
(.2926)^2 * (.4483)^12

According to the statistics, this should have only happened 2-3 times on CC.

Rocketry · Post by **Rocketry** » Fri May 25, 2007 12:21 pm

ive done that - too lost all my men on the first turn. Trouble is you keep thinking - it CAN'T happen again" surely. and you push on, like you say, for a card.
Its often better not to take your turn first (freesytle) because the first person will often move their troops round a bit, leaving a place with 1 man - easier to take.
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DiM · Post by **DiM** » Fri May 25, 2007 7:12 pm

Velvecarrots wrote:
DiM wrote:so if there are any math geniuses out there could you please calculate the chance of losing a 7vs3 battle and then 11 3vs3 battles without killing a single enemy?
.2926 = chance of losing 2 armies attacking 3 dice vs. 2 dice
.4483 = chance of losing 2 armies attacking 2 dice vs. 2 dice

1
____________________ = 1 in approx. 177266 games
(.2926)^2 * (.4483)^12

According to the statistics, this should have only happened 2-3 times on CC.

wow 1 in 177266 games. 2-3 times until now and i witnessed it once

plysprtz · Post by **plysprtz** » Fri May 25, 2007 7:17 pm

i never ever attack on my first turn especially when i start. in escalating games its just stupid and in unlimeted forties you know someone will make room for you next turn to take an easy one build up armies and get a nice come out of nowwhere win just like that..NEVER ATTACK ON FIRST TURN

darkspy · Post by **darkspy** » Fri May 25, 2007 11:39 pm

If its no cards, then about 25 percent ... but since i mostly play with cards, I'd say 60%. And if i lose two attack with 6 i think "uh oh". If i lose again attacking with 4 then i get very unhappy.

Oh, in team games I feel safer if i get unlucky on the first turn... and I just absoulutly hate those people who like to attack with all possible territories and actually win with 3 vs 3.

.4483 = chance of losing 2 armies attacking 2 dice vs. 2 dice

I'm probably reading that wrong, but in a 2 dice on 2 dice, shouldn't the defender have the advantage?

freezie · Post by **freezie** » Fri May 25, 2007 11:42 pm

I never go 3 vs 3 at first, and rarely go 6 vs 3. I wait until I have a chance somewhere.

gimil · Post by **gimil** » Sat May 26, 2007 2:05 am

depending on your initial layout of troops the 1st attack can be really important. i usually find on classic if i take 1 territory thats links most of my forces on the field and i can fortify appropriately

First turn rolls - decisive or not?

how important do you consider the rolls in the first round?

First turn rolls - decisive or not?

Re: First turn rolls - decisive or not?

Re: First turn rolls - decisive or not?