CYOC: TDT [6/22] Game Over! FREEDOM!!!

[HotShot53]

Very nice kill whomever made it Could be the mafia got their kill in quick knowing the night could be short, or could be a vig out there somewhere. Either way, it's great the recruiter was taken out before he could do too much damage; hopefully the town now has more of an advantage than the game was planned for.

By the way the day went the full time, but the night was cut very short, the clock controller is probably town or town-aligned 3rd party. If so, hopefully they will end the day when whatsausage doesn't have a horse. (And I hope all the town got their night actions in quick last night...)

It's always possible the message is a fake, and whatsausage isn't scum... but obviously we have to take it at face value for now since it's the best lead we have. I would like whatsausage to claim though, and hear what he has to say for himself. I'll hold off on voting until he does (or until he takes too long to claim)

[pancakemix]

@pcm are we still operating under the rule that every post has to coincide with "that's my horse" for those participants?

If you are without a horse, yes. Which you are. And you did not take a horse.

(It's a three strike rule, so bear that in mind)

[DoomYoshi]

@loot I'd be curious to compare post counts as I believe I've been more active than you...

@doom am I still your top suspect as HF?

@pcm are we still operating under the rule that every post has to coincide with "that's my horse" for those participants?

Why wouldn't you be?

[Anarkistsdream]

A lot of people yet to post this day.... I hope the weekend doesn't stagnate things.

[Rodion]

I wonder if the number of players in the horse game is a function of remaining players (21+ =5, 16-20 =4, 11-15 =3 and so on)? Anyway, thinking about that right now is unproductive.

The important thing is Strike's got a gift with Sausage's name on it. I have no reason not to trust Strike, but I wonder whether we should base lynches/horsesteals on the word of an anonymous gifter that could very easily gift insane investigations. I'll sleep on it.

[aage]

Well, f*ck. I was looking forward to this role a great deal. Thanks, invisible killer, and thanks PCM, for not making me BP.

[TA1LGUNN3R]

I've been pondering over the clock role (what a dick...) and have come to a few conclusions--

I believe we can all agree the role is anti-town at the least, but perhaps not strictly mafia. Or if it is mafia, why has it used the role twice in the night phase but only once for the day? If it were mafia, it would just end each day phase quickly without a lynch and keep with the night kills, unless it had to meet a requirement or sacrifice something for the day clock, or a fixed number of uses.

That got me thinking that maybe it sacrifices a vote for the day to use the day clock? Maybe, pure supposition, really. Nevertheless, I made a list of people who did not vote Day 1 (per pcm's VCs):

• strike
• Nark
• spiesr
• hotshot
• betiko
• mudpuppy/TFO

Not much, day 1, anorexic thin, yada yada. Spiesr can be ruled out as he was voteless because of virus, mudpuppy/TFO maybe as well because TFO was inactive. That leaves Nark, hotshot, and betiko and strike.

Next I got to thinking about the timing of the day clock. The action had to be sent between this post and this post, a roughly 6.5h slot.

Now, this can't be proven in any concrete way, as the person who sent the action could've just been scummarining, but I think it likely that the clock is one of the posters in between those two posts (general activity, being on and engaged when the posts where happening, etc.). Again, a list:

• loot
• hotshot
• nark
• aage
• iron butterfly
• doom
• jak
• sheep
• strike
• kgb
• neb

Half of the players, but aage can safely be eliminated (unless in addition to recruiting he also had time powers, a bastard role), as can jak. A little correlation gives us Nark, strike, and hotshot.

Now, ordinarily I might just use this list as a list to keep my eye on, but you'll notice that the day was ended ~4.5h after this post where Nark steals virus' horse. List of Day 1 horse players:

• virus
• tails (ooh what a hunk)
• Nark
• Rodion
• hotshot

This leads me to believe either a scum who is the clock was one of the day 1 riders or just a scum in general was a rider (not surprising given that 23% of the players were involved) and the clock intervened on his behalf. That is, they realized that the regular deadline was fast approaching, and wanted to ensure that virus was killed so as to protect one (or possibly more) of the other riders; at least one of the other four is a scum (who we kidding? Other three: Rodion, Nark, hotshot). The timing was also suspiciously quickly after Nark stole virus' horse.

Conclusion:

My top suspects are Nark, Hotshot, Strike, and Rodion in that order. Hotshot came off pretty scummy when he was pretty serious about Day 1 run-off voting but then conveniently had a date (ha mafia player talking to a girl!) =P

So vote nark

I'll likely not be able to post tomorrow, trying to fix up a sailboat. I'll try to get on Sunday, but it's possible I won't be able to get back until Monday evening after work.

-Tails

[betiko]

Interesting post tailgunner.

I haven't counted horse exchanges during day 1 and day 2.. Could there be a correlation with the clock? The days last until X horse exchanges are made? If anyone has the count let me know otherwise i ll do it myself.

[Nebuchadnezer]

Wow. That was a lot of thought put into that. But you miss the obvious. If the clock is mafia, why does it appear that they performed no kill n1? Also why wouldn't the clock end d2 early? Nark may be mafia...but I don't buy that the clock is.

[MudPuppy]

Very nice analysis, tails (ooh what a hunk). Short days definitely hurt town while short nights hurt scum so your "cost of a vote' theory is intriguing. The D2/N2 long day/short nght combo still gives me more of a pro-townish vibe on The Clock but your theory is definitely one to consider.

I likely won't have a lot of time this weekend or early next week to do any in-depth analysis but I'll still be following the game and posting.

[Nebuchadnezer]

You know what's most interesting about tails post? He's more concerned with the clock than he is the HF. The clock, while annoying, has yet to kill anyone. The HF has claimed two. Correlate that with tails NOT being in the horse game. Just not sure why he's drawing the focus off the HF with his cracked up clock post...

[strike wolf]

Tails was in the horse game day 1, Neb. I do agree with you that the clock is less of an issue right now than the horse since there is a chance that it is a town aligned role or even just a neutral third party who hasn't directly killed anyone.

@Rodion: It could also be a unique form of cop that issues an investigation but rather than getting the results himself, he sends the results as a gift to another player. It could be a one time thing. I don't know. It seemed worth the chance and I have to believe that it is real.

[edocsil]

Oh and I just saw that we have one cult convert amongst us.

I think there are 2, as others said per scene flavor.

Looking through aage's posts. Can't see who he recruited based on that. I suppose Nark would work since nobody would suspect it after N1. Usually players who lay low or are vets would be recruit choices.

I have no idea who aage would meta towards, and to be honest I think he is too much of a twisted fucker to be predicted that easily and thats @ nebs post as well.

Tails, your argument is pretty meta and I don't think that's a good thing to be pursuing when we have such an interesting lead with the investigation. TBH at this point we don't even know IF we have scum. I mean, why are we just assuming that this is a traditional game one we have had only TWO kills. this should be setting off alarms like mad. I mean f*ck, the the mafia could BE the horse fuckers for all we know, and the cult were intended to rule the night as per the vampire flavor.

Vote sausage, FTC FTW (ok, sorta ftc...)

[kgb007]

Playing from my phone the rest of the holiday so I won't hassle with quoting...

@doom just curious if my involvement in the game changed your mind since everyone else in the horse game was essentially cleared in your list from D2. Your reasons weren't really well thought out to begin with as you didn't even to bother quoting any of my posts as evidence..

How do we want to handle sausage? I doubt the clock is actually town aligned but I don't want to take sausage's horse just yet on the off chance clock is town and we end the day immaturely. If sw's gift is accurate, we can ensure sausage is horseless. No need to waste our lynch on sausage unless we want to test betiko's claim.

Unless someone from town who hasn't posted yet comes forward on the aage kill, it was probably mafia. I didn't get a scummy feel from aage but then again in a game this large I'm having a hard time with reads. I think it's been cleared up but from the wording of the scene (victims and there only being 2 nights to act) we have to assume aage got to two players.

I don't believe IB has posted yet today.

Sheep that's my horse

[sheepofdumb]

It's weird that with such a big game so few people are getting killed every night. Though I guess the horse game is contributing to the death toll. Speaking of which.

Whatsausage that's my horse.

[spiesr]

It's weird that with such a big game so few people are getting killed every night. Though I guess the horse game is contributing to the death toll. Speaking of which.

The general consensus seems to be that the Clock probably prevented a mafia kill Night 1. That said we have 5 people dead already on Day 3 (with a no-lynch in there as well), and there is/was a cult in this game, so I'm not going to complain about there not being enough deaths. (Although this is a CYOC game is any conventional since of balance need not apply.)

[TA1LGUNN3R]

Thought I'd check in before I left for the day.

Re: strike's present. I got wrapped up in my post and forgot all about it. It's definitely interesting. I don't think whatsausage has replied yet to the accusation, unless I missed it?

Re: edoc/mudpuppy/neb.

One, I didn't forget the unconventional alignments theory. In fact, I distinctly remember pointing out the three seven's (+1) from pcm's game start. Would aage be one of the factions, or is he the +1, leaving two other factions plus town?

Two, the clock is almost certainly anti-town (and is definitely working against my interests therefore I hate him). I pointed out the clock behavior during day 1. Day 2 was not shortened and two townies were disposed of (jak was an easy lynch). These two things coupled together indicate non-town interests (or lack of another day clock use, but even a broken clock is right twice a day, amirite?).

Three, I'm of the personal belief that the "HF" is PCM. I think it's a game mechanic to up activity. I am willing to consider however that, per edoc, the HF could be the scum kill wrapped up in CYOC shiny, but then we have to figure there's a vig who killed aage.

Wow. That was a lot of thought put into that. But you miss the obvious. If the clock is mafia, why does it appear that they performed no kill n1? Also why wouldn't the clock end d2 early? Nark may be mafia...but I don't buy that the clock is.

I have a hypothesis about night 1's lack of a kill but I'm not willing to part with that just yet.

-Tails

[strike wolf]

As far as the horse being mafia's way of killing. I don't think it works. If the horse game was to include mafia (whatsausage is in it), than they risk being killed off by the horse with their action which gives the mafia's kill a bit of a double edged sword type issue, which would make mafia more difficult to balance. The other option, that mafia are not included in it, I have to assume doesn't work because Whatsausage is in it but there are other reasons that tip my notice as well (I will explain if asked but for now I'd rather not waste the time and energy). Having the horse as an alternate second kill for mafia could work better as having two ways to kill should be balanced with a double edged feature to their ability. As of now, I am going with the assumption that Aage was killed by mafia who probably acted quicker since their N1 kill was interrupted.

[TA1LGUNN3R]

Yep I would agree with that last part.

-Tails

[Iron Butterfly]

Hey Folks.

I am out of hospital and have full access to computer. LOL I was admitted because I was having a reaction to my my heart medications and all I kept thinking was, nobody better steal my god damn horse and if they do will i be able to get a connection on my phone? Talk about priorities.

It seems to me that the killing of the Vamp was accidental more then anything. We certainly do not have a better understanding of what faction killed him nor do we know what the others left can do. Perhaps they may have to kill as mafia now?

vote whatsausage

Could the package be a ruse? Maybe but to me that would not make sense. If this is a mafia/third party/Town night action and the result is wrong no one will open or believe future information sent from this player.

Until we get more information from whatsausage or anything else my vote will stay.

[betiko]

Welcome back IB

I kind of like the theory of the 3 sevens town/third party/fourth party +dracula. I'm not saying scum but fourth party because no way mafia could be 7 peeps knowing each other.
I think it's very possible that there is no group of people discussing night kills and that we have more of vig/sk actions. So how would it work though? As town I obviously didn't get any information concerning threats in my role PM.. How could there be balance between 3 groups of 7?

Regarding the HF I think that PCM chosing is the highest possibility.

[Anarkistsdream]

I have been saying the same thing about the horse game since the beginning. Lord, you all are slow to catch up.

And nice post, Tail, about a possibility for the clock, but I can swear that I know nothing about it, and it has already messed me up, too, so whatever player is doing that is pissing me off too. Alright, lake time peeps... 100 degrees fahrenheit and the sun is calling my name.

[HotShot53]

I've been pondering over the clock role (what a dick...) and have come to a few conclusions--

I believe we can all agree the role is anti-town at the least, but perhaps not strictly mafia.

Umm... I have to disagree there, I think the majority of players so far think the clock is town or favoring town, as I stated a few posts before yours. Although day 1 ended early, it ended in a tie, which most town like since it gives everyone a chance to make a final vote and get better reads on how people are voting. Both nights ended early, and at least night 1 had no mafia kill, which seems unlikely if it was a mafia clock.

Still waiting for whatsausage to post to see his response.

And strike has been posting obviously.

[Nebuchadnezer]

I've been pondering over the clock role (what a dick...) and have come to a few conclusions--

I believe we can all agree the role is anti-town at the least, but perhaps not strictly mafia.

Umm... I have to disagree there, I think the majority of players so far think the clock is town or favoring town, as I stated a few posts before yours. Although day 1 ended early, it ended in a tie, which most town like since it gives everyone a chance to make a final vote and get better reads on how people are voting. Both nights ended early, and at least night 1 had no mafia kill, which seems unlikely if it was a mafia clock.

Still waiting for whatsausage to post to see his response.

And strike has been posting obviously.

Ditto.

Sorry for the tails mix up....throws that lead out. I don't like that kgb did NOT take sausages horse...what up with that?

[pancakemix]

Vote Count

Whatsausage - 5 (SW, Betiko, MP, Edoc, IB)
Betiko - 1 (Jmac)

Whatsausage is currently without a horse.

With 17 alive it takes 9 to lynch. Deadline is May 30 at 11:59 PM