CYOC: TDT [6/22] Game Over! FREEDOM!!!

[betiko]

Neb, can you stop the repetitive thing about my activity/implication, I am clearly one of the most actives ever since I got proded. You are just showing the lack of arguments you have against me.
And yes, a town governor can save anyone he likes from a lynch, and I have this power once in the entire game.

Fp

In defense of jak though, he kind of warned that a death was about to come before pcm anounced it. It would be such a terrible thing to do for a scum waiting to see a town head... I don't know. Jak played bad if he s town and horribly if he is mafia imo.

[jak111]

In defense of jak though, he kind of warned that a death was about to come before pcm anounced it.

I was wondering if anyone would catch onto that.

[pancakemix]

Vote Count

Jak - 9 (jmac, Rodion, aage, SW, Jonty, MP, spiesr, betiko, Neb)
Betiko - 7 (Doom, HotShot, IB, edoc, kgb, nark, Tails)
SW - 1 (Jak)

Edocsil is currently without a horse.

With 20 alive it takes 11 to lynch! Deadline is May 22nd at 11:59 PM ET.

[MudPuppy]

Mudpuppy replaced in today and then took a while to catch up. He has been posting since then, but I would like him to increase the amount so that he can build up a greater mass of posts for us to look at.

Was hoping to post something of worth tonight but I'm just too tired. Quick thoughts on Betiko are... before his claim, I was basically giving him the benefit of the doubt as long as he started to post again.. though the CC activity elsewhere definitely raises a flag. Post-claim, I actually find him slightly scummier due to the nature of his role and his claim that he'd just stop any lynch attempt. I believe he can do it... but it's a nice ploy if he can't. As has been stated earlier, his role likely has nothing to do with his alignment... so, I find his Governor claim both believable and convenient. I lean toward Town but it leaves enough of a question mark to keep note of.

I've been meaning to read through some old DoomYoshi games to get a feel for his play style but haven't gotten to it and probably won't 'til after the day ends. I kept getting scum vibes from him (though, I honestly can't even remember why atm... I'll need to re-read). But Strike indicated his "craziness" was consistent with his meta... hence my desire to research him a bit.

Anyway, I'll try to get in one more post before day end and see if I can come up with anything worthwhile to add.

[Lootifer]

Ok so my analysis of pages 25-30ish weren't really sufficient to change my view much (i.e. I still aint keen to lynch jak). I feel like a few people are showing decent town-vibes, but with 20 still in the game that ain't gonna help none.

Regarding Betiko: This governor claim is weird. Before I understood what a governor role was (and just heard Betiko claim 1-shot lynchproof) I initially thought "that's gotta be an anti-town role". Also being tyrion I feel like there's going to be more to his role, double barreled roles are quite common in PCMs CYOC right? All in all I feel very uneasy about his claim... but that could simply be my lack of mafia knowledge/experience...

I still have a scum vibe coming from jmac and SW (reply to my FoS noted), both seem to be willing to lynch a towny because they provide no value (a towny who has claimed protective roles no less). But without a jak flip I am not willing to push a case; as I found out the hard way in a game I just finished on MS its perfectly possible to have a full wagon of townies on a towny...

vote betiko

Not because I think he's super scummy (though he's not clean by any stretch of the imagination); just I have the confirmation bias train riding hard on the town-jak line; I would rather lynch Betiko if I am faced with a choice (2xprotective roles > 1-shot lynchproof).

[Lootifer]

Oh and Spiesr has posted today

[betiko]

Just one question for people voting me: what are you going to do tomorrow if I get the most votes and your lynch attempt fails? Vote again for me? Basically you are willing to spend 2 lynch days on my ass... Because of what? Your case is thin air, it's just based on my inactivity mid day 1 till mid day 2 and the fact that I answer provocatively (putting myself a bit in the shoes of tyrion from that scene, hehe).

So the big question to my accusers: if you had a strong chance of ending up lynched and you had the power to prevent a lynch once... Would you not protect your ass whatever your alignment is? (In this case I repeat, I'm town not third party nor whatever) You can't decently jump to any conclusions of scumminess or whatever.

[edocsil]

@ loot, a gov can stop any lynch he doesn't like.

Vote Jak, too rushed to bold/red last time.

IB That's my horse.

Governor is also always town (not here yes, yes I get it) and is typically a great fake claim so long as no one makes him test it. Also Tyrion and the best pcm could come up with is Governor? This is fishy, but I'll abide for now. I am not convinced that this is a legitimate claim.

[aage]

@ loot, a gov can stop any lynch he doesn't like.

Vote Jak, too rushed to bold/red last time.

IB That's my horse.

Governor is also always town (not here yes, yes I get it) and is typically a great fake claim so long as no one makes him test it. Also Tyrion and the best pcm could come up with is Governor? This is fishy, but I'll abide for now. I am not convinced that this is a legitimate claim.

Most fishy thing about it is that the video Betiko provided with Tyrion's trial (supposedly to support his claim) wasn't broadcasted yet when pmc made the roles, so the governor flavor becomes slightly less related. Then again, I suppose Tyrion already got himself out of a "lynch" at the Eyrie back in season one.

Governor is an annoying role claim because if we ask him to prove it we basically waste a day's worth lynch if he is correct. I suggest we put off testing that claim until later days if at all, as we already had a no lynch yesterday.

[betiko]

@ loot, a gov can stop any lynch he doesn't like.

Vote Jak, too rushed to bold/red last time.

IB That's my horse.

Governor is also always town (not here yes, yes I get it) and is typically a great fake claim so long as no one makes him test it. Also Tyrion and the best pcm could come up with is Governor? This is fishy, but I'll abide for now. I am not convinced that this is a legitimate claim.

Most fishy thing about it is that the video Betiko provided with Tyrion's trial (supposedly to support his claim) wasn't broadcasted yet when pmc made the roles, so the governor flavor becomes slightly less related. Then again, I suppose Tyrion already got himself out of a "lynch" at the Eyrie back in season one.

Governor is an annoying role claim because if we ask him to prove it we basically waste a day's worth lynch if he is correct. I suggest we put off testing that claim until later days if at all, as we already had a no lynch yesterday.

you aren't making any sense in your flavour analysis. When tyrion was "governor" was when he was hand of the king (joffrey) which was a season or two back, tywinn stripped him from that role after the battle vs stannis. PCM sent me a picture of tyrion with the hand of the king badge and that role, so obviously it goes way back in the story. The video was just to illustrate my attitude towards the "trial" I'm facing, his role there has nothing to do with a governor.

[Rodion]

Why is Jak ignoring my latest post?

[Nebuchadnezer]

After reading everyone through in ISO with the horse game in mind here are my likelihoods that a given player is the horse fucker.

Very Likely
kgb007

Likely
hotshot
sheepofdumb

Medium
Tails
Rodion

Unlikely
Everyone Else

I like this analysis. I think this is a good place to pick up tomorrow. We will most likely be able to subtract three more from that list with the new players assigned.

[strike wolf]

Vote jak

I will just tell you guys that if I decide not to be lynched today, I will not be lynched no matter how hard you try.
I am not convinced that jak is scum, but I am certain I'm town. So if you want to kill me a lynch won't work and you will need to waste 2 day lynches to get rid of me.

Sorry about your little butts!

Well that's not scummy...that's not scummy at all.

what exactly, the fact of voting jak to save my ability, or the fact of warning you guys what will happen if you lynch me today?

It just felt up to this point that you weren't seriously trying to defend yourself and for you to come out with a post like this which still seemed to be making light of the actual case while voting Jak for self-preservation and taunting town, it just didn't sit right. Your last couple posts have been better, IMO, and I guess I can see how you might get a bit complacent about the situation but I am still not convinced. All said, governor is a role we can potentially confirm. I don't want to do so today but it will be worth considering in the future.

After reading everyone through in ISO with the horse game in mind here are my likelihoods that a given player is the horse fucker.

Very Likely
kgb007

Likely
hotshot
sheepofdumb

Medium
Tails
Rodion

Unlikely
Everyone Else

I like this analysis. I think this is a good place to pick up tomorrow. We will most likely be able to subtract three more from that list with the new players assigned.

I'd like to hear the reasoning behind this analysis, though I don't as of now have reason to dispute the names listed.

[kgb007]

After reading everyone through in ISO with the horse game in mind here are my likelihoods that a given player is the horse fucker.

Very Likely
kgb007

Likely
hotshot
sheepofdumb

Medium
Tails
Rodion

Unlikely
Everyone Else

'

I like this analysis. I think this is a good place to pick up tomorrow. We will most likely be able to subtract three more from that list with the new players assigned.

No let's talk about it now. Why am I the most likely person to be controlling the horse game?

unvote I was about to vote Jak but realized that'd be the hammer and I'd like to get more from Doom on the reasoning behind his list.

Reason why I'll be voting Jak - I agree with the point Neb made - No JOAT would shoot N1 and I've changed my mind on Jak's defense "I wanted to use my most powerful NAs before I die" argument. Shooting someone based on 1-2 posts of pushing for a separate lynch aside from the horse game D1 - isn't exactly the strongest scum read. Especially if you know you only get one shot, you best be sure of who your shooting.

[kgb007]

unvote sorry it wasn't colored before

[HotShot53]

Ok so my analysis of pages 25-30ish weren't really sufficient to change my view much (i.e. I still aint keen to lynch jak). I feel like a few people are showing decent town-vibes, but with 20 still in the game that ain't gonna help none.

Regarding Betiko: This governor claim is weird. Before I understood what a governor role was (and just heard Betiko claim 1-shot lynchproof) I initially thought "that's gotta be an anti-town role". Also being tyrion I feel like there's going to be more to his role, double barreled roles are quite common in PCMs CYOC right? All in all I feel very uneasy about his claim... but that could simply be my lack of mafia knowledge/experience...

I still have a scum vibe coming from jmac and SW (reply to my FoS noted), both seem to be willing to lynch a towny because they provide no value (a towny who has claimed protective roles no less). But without a jak flip I am not willing to push a case; as I found out the hard way in a game I just finished on MS its perfectly possible to have a full wagon of townies on a towny...

vote betiko

Not because I think he's super scummy (though he's not clean by any stretch of the imagination); just I have the confirmation bias train riding hard on the town-jak line; I would rather lynch Betiko if I am faced with a choice (2xprotective roles > 1-shot lynchproof).

Other than the fact that governor is usually a town role (giving it to scum to prevent a lynch of scum would be a bit overpowered), I agree with this post. Optimally, we'd find another lead to go hunting... but as today is the deadline, there isn't time for that, only a lynch of jak or a test (or lynch if he's lying) of betiko will happen today. Of those two choices, I would prefer to test betiko's claim than lynch a person I think is town... so my vote will stay on betiko.

[MudPuppy]

After reading everyone through in ISO with the horse game in mind here are my likelihoods that a given player is the horse fucker.

Very Likely
kgb007

Likely
hotshot
sheepofdumb

Medium
Tails
Rodion

Unlikely
Everyone Else

Maybe it's because my initial read of Doom as a bit Scummish (mind you I'd like to re-read before I commit to that analysis) but I see this as nothing more than a distraction. First, I still guess that the Horse Fucker (I do like his name) is pcm. Second, even if it isn't, I don't necessarily see the HF as a scummy role, assuming there are scum mixed into the horse game. I have to assume there are because we already know there are 3rd Party participants. Even if Scum were excluded, it would just make it that much easier to pick them out... which is why they wouldn't be excluded. So, it seems like Doom is trying to start a witch hunt for a non-existent character that, while killing, isn't likely anti-town. Whether done intentionally or not, this post serves no purpose other than to distract, imo.

[strike wolf]

Actually it is probably a worthwhile experiment. It is possible that PCM is doing what you describe however I don't think we should just rule out the possibility that the horse is a player in the game. Likely a lone third party player (though I will not rule out mafia) who may have the condition, as someone else described, of winning if he lives to the conclusion of the horse game (only one player standing). If this is the case than looking for someone who seems connected to the horse game in whatever form they take, is a valid analysis. I will say it isn't clear what happens when the game reaches it's conclusion. It could be that everyone without a horse (including those who were not directly involved in the game) are killed and his victory means end game. It could be that he wins and we just continue to play. I don't know. What seems likely though is that the players who are selected appear to be random. The player controlling it if there is one could be immune to the selection however more likely him being a possible participant is the cost for this action. So yeah, a lot of ifs.

[MudPuppy]

Of those two choices, I would prefer to test betiko's claim than lynch a person I think is town... so my vote will stay on betiko.

If Betiko invented his role (I don't think he did) then he's likely scum and would be killed. If his role is as claimed then that part gets confirmed... but we still don't know alignment. So, not a lot of help there... but it does remove a pardon from his arsenal which, even if he is Town, could be considered an anti-Town ability since it overrides the democratic process and takes away Town's primary weapon for a day. Obviously, if he is scum and a Governor, then taking away his ability is in town's best interest so he is unable to save (or delay) a scum lynch. Basically, I see a vote for Betiko as a no lynch vote with some additional benefits.

[Anarkistsdream]

Of those two choices, I would prefer to test betiko's claim than lynch a person I think is town... so my vote will stay on betiko.

If Betiko invented his role (I don't think he did) then he's likely scum and would be killed. If his role is as claimed then that part gets confirmed... but we still don't know alignment. So, not a lot of help there... but it does remove a pardon from his arsenal which, even if he is Town, could be considered an anti-Town ability since it overrides the democratic process and takes away Town's primary weapon for a day. Obviously, if he is scum and a Governor, then taking away his ability is in town's best interest so he is unable to save (or delay) a scum lynch. Basically, I see a vote for Betiko as a no lynch vote with some additional benefits.

I second this... A governor role has rarely helped town, is almost never used on someone besides the governor himself, and basically slows the game down. However, I am fine with a runoff between the two so we can see what the popular majority decides. Otherwise, we really have nothing to go off of with votes today. We need to have some sort of accountability

[jak111]

Actually it is probably a worthwhile experiment. It is possible that PCM is doing what you describe however I don't think we should just rule out the possibility that the horse is a player in the game. Likely a lone third party player (though I will not rule out mafia) who may have the condition, as someone else described, of winning if he lives to the conclusion of the horse game (only one player standing). If this is the case than looking for someone who seems connected to the horse game in whatever form they take, is a valid analysis. I will say it isn't clear what happens when the game reaches it's conclusion. It could be that everyone without a horse (including those who were not directly involved in the game) are killed and his victory means end game. It could be that he wins and we just continue to play. I don't know. What seems likely though is that the players who are selected appear to be random. The player controlling it if there is one could be immune to the selection however more likely him being a possible participant is the cost for this action. So yeah, a lot of ifs.

Well scene has yet to be posted (Time is up I do believe as of about 30 mins ago).

I'm the one who brought up the possibility bolded.

Well at least I don't need to survive the stupid horse game when there are only 3 players in it tomorrow, which will give town only 3 more lynches left to find the little culprit.

FP'd by Anark, there will be no run-off, time is up, I'm majority by 1-2 votes.

[HotShot53]

Actually it is probably a worthwhile experiment. It is possible that PCM is doing what you describe however I don't think we should just rule out the possibility that the horse is a player in the game. Likely a lone third party player (though I will not rule out mafia) who may have the condition, as someone else described, of winning if he lives to the conclusion of the horse game (only one player standing). If this is the case than looking for someone who seems connected to the horse game in whatever form they take, is a valid analysis. I will say it isn't clear what happens when the game reaches it's conclusion. It could be that everyone without a horse (including those who were not directly involved in the game) are killed and his victory means end game. It could be that he wins and we just continue to play. I don't know. What seems likely though is that the players who are selected appear to be random. The player controlling it if there is one could be immune to the selection however more likely him being a possible participant is the cost for this action. So yeah, a lot of ifs.

Well scene has yet to be posted (Time is up I do believe as of about 30 mins ago).

I'm the one who brought up the possibility bolded.

Well at least I don't need to survive the stupid horse game when there are only 3 players in it tomorrow, which will give town only 3 more lynches left to find the little culprit.

FP'd by Anark, there will be no run-off, time is up, I'm majority by 1-2 votes.

The time isn't up, still another 11 1/2 hours left in the day as of now, as long as it doesn't end early again. It ends at 11:59 PM, not 11:59 AM.

[jak111]

The time isn't up, still another 11 1/2 hours left in the day as of now, as long as it doesn't end early again. It ends at 11:59 PM, not 11:59 AM.

Oh, you're right, I read it as AM.

Unvote, Vote Betiko (not for a lynch but in order to end the day in a tie for the run-off).

I believe his claim, I believe it's 2 townies right now on the chopping block and now with almost everyone in the game voting for one of us, I can say for certain there's scum on one of the wagons. That isn't no OMGUS or anything, that's something that is for certain.

[Iron Butterfly]

Jonty that's my horse

Posted from hospital...get....could not get phone receptin

[Nebuchadnezer]

I should clarify my liking doom.s list. I like the concept of analyzing people. I don't necessarily think his list is good.

If I'm in the horse group tomorrow, you can be dam sure I'm claiming early. Why? Right now that horse is being passed around arbitrarily. I'd like to see what happens when there is a claim in that group. Will I still get the horse? Will the others be so random? I'd like to take the randomness out of the game. I'm surprised that not one of the players has claimed to protect themselves. I'm not role fishing or looking for a claim, it's just an angle I would have played...unless I wasn't town.

We need a vote count...do we have everyone voting now? This will at least give us good info moving forward. Is there anything significant we need yet today? Looks like the Clock must need to rewind before he can speed up time again.

Fpd by iron...dude, that's dedication.