Why arent random maps, "Random"?????

by **xroads** on Tue Feb 11, 2014 10:49 am

I have been playing alot of auto tourneys with random maps.

I find it odd that many of the maps come up time after time, yet other maps are never brought up.

Are there certain maps that are excluded from random choices?

by **Gilligan** on Tue Feb 11, 2014 1:56 pm

xroads wrote:I have been playing alot of auto tourneys with random maps.

I find it odd that many of the maps come up time after time, yet other maps are never brought up.

Are there certain maps that are excluded from random choices?

Nope, luck of the draw.

by **MoB Deadly** on Tue Feb 11, 2014 2:19 pm

xroads wrote:I
Are there certain maps that are excluded from random choices?

I think it does of course prevent an illegal game from starting up - such as an 8 player Feudal War.

Other than that I think it is random

by **owenshooter** on Tue Feb 11, 2014 3:48 pm

it is the only way they get people to play the "suckfest" maps... period... case closed... the black jesus has spoken...-el Jesus negro

by **betiko** on Tue Feb 11, 2014 4:12 pm

Beta maps have always been excluded

by **Vace Cooper** on Tue Feb 11, 2014 4:19 pm

It seems that melting pot map ideas are also excluded.

by **iAmCaffeine** on Tue Feb 11, 2014 4:25 pm

I believe maps in the recycling bin are excluded.

by **Vace Cooper** on Tue Feb 11, 2014 4:30 pm

They must be working out the details on a random unfinished map option. In fact im almost sure of it.

by **betiko** on Tue Feb 11, 2014 4:30 pm

Colosseus too.

by **iAmCaffeine** on Tue Feb 11, 2014 4:41 pm

betiko wrote:Colosseus too.

I have never heard of this map.

Vace Cooper wrote:They must be working out the details on a random unfinished map option. In fact im almost sure of it.

Sounds like another conspiracy.

by **xroads** on Tue Feb 11, 2014 5:37 pm

Here is a great example

In my last 50 games, Cairns Metro has shown up 4 times, & WWII eastern front 3.

Ya that is random all right.

by **iAmCaffeine** on Tue Feb 11, 2014 5:43 pm

That is dreadful.

by **loutil** on Tue Feb 11, 2014 5:47 pm

xroads wrote:Here is a great example

In my last 50 games, Cairns Metro has shown up 4 times, & WWII eastern front 3.

Ya that is random all right.

Random means just that...random. All you are experiencing is a bit of variance. Same as flipping a coin and getting heads 9 times in a row. However, if 8 other people had the same experience with the same 2 maps then there would be an issue.

by **Gilligan** on Tue Feb 11, 2014 5:48 pm

xroads wrote:Here is a great example

In my last 50 games, Cairns Metro has shown up 4 times, & WWII eastern front 3.

Ya that is random all right.

Fantastic example, even.

Random is random.

by **Vace Cooper** on Tue Feb 11, 2014 7:58 pm

Could it be that the guy hired to pick the random maps is choosing his favorite maps?.. If so, this could be a serious issue. I'm glad this was brought to the attention of the community and hope the proper authority's be notified of this ASAP. Also, I'd like to add, if because of this dilemma there is a career opportunity in the business of random map picking... I'd like to know where I can send my resume, I have extensive knowledge in random picking.

by **xroads** on Tue Feb 11, 2014 8:05 pm

Im thinking more along the lines that the computer automatically rejects maps that are favorites of game players.

Just a thought.

by **BigBallinStalin** on Tue Feb 11, 2014 11:07 pm

Those pesky coders and their evil ways! Always trying to screw us over with a clear means of being caught! DAMN THEM!

by **xroads** on Thu Feb 20, 2014 4:22 pm

You have to be kidding me. Cairns Metro again?

That makes five of the last 70 random games.

Is there some math wizz that can give me the odds of that?

by **owenshooter** on Thu Feb 20, 2014 4:35 pm

xroads wrote:You have to be kidding me. Cairns Metro again?

That makes five of the last 70 random games.

Is there some math wizz that can give me the odds of that?

thanks for ruining my afternoon... i don't even like to THINK about that map... i maintain that only sucky maps pop up on random... the black jesus has spoken...-el Jesus negro

by **agentcom** on Fri Feb 21, 2014 1:17 am

Keep in mind that the probability of getting 70 different maps in 70 tries is pretty low. Somewhere on the order of 1 in a million tries. In other words, you're almost certain to have some repeats. You can figure this out by picking one map at random to start with. Assuming 200-ish maps, you then have a 199/200 chance of the second map being unique. Then 198/200. Etc. On down to 131/200. By multiplying all these probabilities together, you'd see that the odds are pretty low of getting 70 unique maps.

But your question is more complicated. There's the easy, but misleading question of "what are my chances of getting Cairns Metro five times in 70 games?" That's easy to solve because you can use the binomial theorem to figure out what your chances are of getting Cairns Metro 5 times out of 70 attempts. Turns out your chances of getting Cairns Metro 5 times in 70 maps is around one in 36,000 or so. Not very common, but interestingly it's far, far more common than getting 70 unique maps.

But really the above paragraph poses the wrong question. The question should be what are the chances of getting any map 5 times (or more) out of 70 draws. I'm heading back to my stats text book right now, and I think a good way of looking at this would be the Poisson Distribution (though I think there are other ways). Alternatively, I believe that you could multiply the by the 200 maps to approximate a solution. Either way, I end up with a probability of about 1/150 that you end up drawing a map 5 times within 70 games.

I wouldn't call this a likely result, but I don't think that it's outside the bounds of normal variation. Someone should check my math and application of statistics though because I'm no expert in this stuff.

by **Donelladan** on Fri Feb 21, 2014 7:32 am

I am not sure I understand everything correctly in your post agentcom, but are you saying that the probability of having 5 times Cains Metro out of 70 attempts, and the probability of drawing the same map 5 times out of 70 attempts are differents? Because those 2 probability should be the same.

by **trinicardinal** on Fri Feb 21, 2014 8:14 am

Donelladan wrote:I am not sure I understand everything correctly in your post agentcom, but are you saying that the probability of having 5 times Cains Metro out of 70 attempts, and the probability of drawing the same map 5 times out of 70 attempts are differents? Because those 2 probability should be the same.

Not quite... the first situation specifies a particular map from the start which means that you have to pull that particular map only... the same thing could have happened with any other map. The odds of ANY map coming up 5 times are different to A SPECIFIC map coming up 5 times. Its a funny thing but that little difference - ANY instead of SPECIFIC makes a huge difference to the odds.

by **Metsfanmax** on Fri Feb 21, 2014 12:37 pm

We can't even get the dice to be random, so it's no surprise that the random maps don't work either.

by **agentcom** on Fri Feb 21, 2014 12:56 pm

Metsfanmax wrote:We can't even get the dice to be random, so it's no surprise that the random maps don't work either.

Haha, I was going to say something like this. But someone would actually have to look at a decent sample of random maps to actually come to this conclusion. I'm guessing that the random maps are, in fact, random. Mainly because I don't see any reason for them not to be.