I was just curious if someone could shed some light on the math of how our dice stats percentages are worked out
3 dice v 2 dice should win 65.595% of the time. Is it incorrect to assume that my overall 3v2 battle outcomes have the same results?
Assault 35295 29751 = 0%
Defend 17088 20508 = -1%
I win my assaults only 54.2%
My opponent wins their assault 54.5%
Dice Math
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Re: Dice Math
It's true that a in a 4 v 2 battle, where you start with 3 dice and roll against 2 until one side or the other wins, the attacker should ultimately win the war 65.59% of the time.
However, what your dice stats are showing is only the result of the first roll (the one roll where you actually have 3 dice against 2). On that roll, you could win 2, win 1 lose 1, or lose 2. On that roll, your dice stats are showing that you kill an army 54.2% of the time and lose one 45.8% of the time.
That sounds roughly correct, because on a 3 v 2 battle, you have roughly 37.2% chance of killing 2, 33.6% chance of killing 1, 29.2% chance of losing 2. If you run the math on that, you get an expected kill rate of 53.8%, so your average assault rate is very close to the expected outcome for a single 3 v 2 roll.
Assault odds are accounting for the fact that after that first roll, there is a chance you could still win the war with a 3 v 1 or even a slim chance you could come back and win a 1 v 2. So you start from your 37.2% chance of winning 2 outright, and add to that your chance of wining 1 on the first roll and ultimately winning the fight, plus the slim chance of losing 2 on the first roll but still winning the fight, and you get to 65.59%, which is what assault odds is showing.
That's the difference... hope that helped.
However, what your dice stats are showing is only the result of the first roll (the one roll where you actually have 3 dice against 2). On that roll, you could win 2, win 1 lose 1, or lose 2. On that roll, your dice stats are showing that you kill an army 54.2% of the time and lose one 45.8% of the time.
That sounds roughly correct, because on a 3 v 2 battle, you have roughly 37.2% chance of killing 2, 33.6% chance of killing 1, 29.2% chance of losing 2. If you run the math on that, you get an expected kill rate of 53.8%, so your average assault rate is very close to the expected outcome for a single 3 v 2 roll.
Assault odds are accounting for the fact that after that first roll, there is a chance you could still win the war with a 3 v 1 or even a slim chance you could come back and win a 1 v 2. So you start from your 37.2% chance of winning 2 outright, and add to that your chance of wining 1 on the first roll and ultimately winning the fight, plus the slim chance of losing 2 on the first roll but still winning the fight, and you get to 65.59%, which is what assault odds is showing.
That's the difference... hope that helped.