Official in game Dice analysis

[Pedronicus]

Game 36456 (A game I won – I didn’t manage to copy all throws, as I was running out of time)
Attacker rolls 2 5 2 Defender rolls 2 2
Attacker rolls 1 1 Defender rolls 5 6
Attacker rolls 3 3 3 Defender rolls 4 1
Attacker rolls 3 3 6 Defender rolls 1 3
Attacker rolls 6 2 1 Defender rolls 3
Attacker rolls 3 6 5 Defender rolls 1 5
Attacker rolls 2 3 1 Defender rolls 4 6
Attacker rolls 4 6 4 Defender rolls 4 2
Attacker rolls 5 6 3 Defender rolls 1
Attacker rolls 3 6 2 Defender rolls 6 1
Attacker rolls 6 6 2 Defender rolls 5 5
Attacker rolls 5 6 5 Defender rolls 6 2
Attacker rolls 3 1 5 Defender rolls 4 3
Attacker rolls 2 2 1 Defender rolls 5 5
Attacker rolls 5 2 4 Defender rolls 6 3
Attacker rolls 1 3 2 Defender rolls 5 6
Attacker rolls 4 2 5 Defender rolls 6 3
Attacker rolls 4 5 2 Defender rolls 6 6
Attacker rolls 1 5 3 Defender rolls 3 4
Attacker rolls 5 6 6 Defender rolls 4
Attacker rolls 3 6 6 Defender rolls 4
Attacker rolls 2 5 1 Defender rolls 4 5
Attacker rolls 3 4 5 Defender rolls 3 6
Attacker rolls 2 1 3 Defender rolls 5 1
Attacker rolls 1 2 4 Defender rolls 1 3
Attacker rolls 3 4 4 Defender rolls 4 3
Attacker rolls 3 3 5 Defender rolls 4 3
Attacker rolls 5 4 3 Defender rolls 2 4
Attacker rolls 4 6 5 Defender rolls 5 3
Attacker rolls 6 3 3 Defender rolls 1 3
Attacker rolls 3 1 4 Defender rolls 3 4
Attacker rolls 6 2 3 Defender rolls 2 6
Attacker rolls 2 3 1 Defender rolls 5 3
Attacker rolls 2 2 6 Defender rolls 3 3
Attacker rolls 3 5 Defender rolls 5
Attacker rolls 3 Defender rolls 5
Attacker rolls 1 3 6 Defender rolls 2
Attacker rolls 1 3 1 Defender rolls 2 6
Attacker rolls 6 4 3 Defender rolls 5 2
Attacker rolls 5 5 1 Defender rolls 4 5
Attacker rolls 2 6 6 Defender rolls 4 2
Attacker rolls 1 6 5 Defender rolls 2
Attacker rolls 6 3 6 Defender rolls 5
Attacker rolls 2 5 6 Defender rolls 4
Attacker rolls 2 4 6 Defender rolls 4
Attacker rolls 3 4 6 Defender rolls 3 5
Attacker rolls 2 1 4 Defender rolls 4 3
Attacker rolls 5 4 3 Defender rolls 6 1
Attacker rolls 4 2 6 Defender rolls 1 3
Attacker rolls 3 1 4 Defender rolls 2 5
Attacker rolls 4 2 1 Defender rolls 5 3
Attacker rolls 2 2 1 Defender rolls 4 1
Attacker rolls 3 5 3 Defender rolls 3 1
Attacker rolls 4 2 4 Defender rolls 2 4
Attacker rolls 6 5 3 Defender rolls 5 1
Attacker rolls 1 3 6 Defender rolls 6
Attacker rolls 5 1 1 Defender rolls 2
Attacker rolls 1 2 6 Defender rolls 4 6
Attacker rolls 1 1 1 Defender rolls 4 1

Summary:
276 dice thrown in total
172 dice thrown by attacker (62.3%)
104 dice thrown by defender (37.7%)

Of the 172 attacking dice
1 thrown… 29 times (16.8%)
2 thrown… 29 times (16.8%)
3 thrown… 37 times (21.5%)
4 thrown… 22 times (12.8%)
5 thrown… 24 times (14.5%)
6 thrown… 30 times (17.4%)

Of the 104 defending dice
1 thrown… 14 times (13.4%)
2 thrown… 14 times (13.4%)
3 thrown… 21 times (20.2%)
4 thrown… 21 times (20.2%)
5 thrown… 20 times (19.2%)
6 thrown… 14 times (13.4%)

Win / loss

59 attacks in total

14 or 23.7% (3v2 attacker takes 2 off defender) - Win
19 or 32.2% (3v2 attacker takes 1 off defender & loses 1) - Draw
13 or 22.0% (3v2 attacker loses 2 to defender) - Loss
9 or 15.3% (3v1 attacker takes 1 off defender) - Win
1 or 1.7% (3v1 attacker loses 1 to defender) - Loss
1 or 1.7% (2v2 attacker loses 2 to defender) - Loss
1 or 1.7% (2v1 attacker loses 1 to defender) - Loss
1 or 1.7% (1v1 attacker loses 1 to defender) - Loss

Total of 56 taken off the board by the attacker
Total of 50 taken off the board by the defender

Attacker won 39% of throws
Attacker drew 32.2% of throws
Defender won 28.8% of throws

I think this analysis shows the defending dice are overly strong as 77.9% of the throws were 3v2

Anyone want to add anything?

[AndyDufresne]

Yeah, do it again for 99 more games, then combine the data.


--Andy

[Pilate]

The variation looks reasonable for a sample size of 279, which is a lot.

lol, wtf, 99 more games. In biology, they have sample sizes as low as ten! (have to be creative with the analysis though)

[sully800]

Why does it matter that 77.9% of the throws were 3vs2? That simply means you chose to attack countries with 2+ men on them most of the time...it says nothing about the dice.

The win percentages aren't far off for your 3vs2 rolls and thats what matters...you won less than you would expect and you tied more often than you'd expected but its not a gross variation. Not when you consider there are less than 20 of each scenario.

Anyway, its not a bad start but in order to prove anything you would need thousands of rolls. Fortunately its not hard to gather such large amounts of data because its all encoded already. You just need a program to do it for you which I believe MrsMad was working on?

[sully800]

Also you won 9 times when attacking 3vs1 and only lost once. The expected ratio is about 2 wins for each loss...so you were way ahead in that category and it 'shows' that the defending dice are overly weak

The point is, much more data is needed to get a good idea of whether the dice work properly or not.

[DPTigerFan]

from your calculations, the attacker rolls a 3 or less 55.1 % of the time. where as the defender rolls 3 or better 73% of the time. meaning more than half the time the attacker has a 1 in 4 chance of losing. Not a stats expert but if I were to guess I would say...there is a 40.223% chance of losing which i would say goes well with a 5 dice matchup.

[Pilate]

For a 6 sided dice,

the percentage of each number should be 16.67.

You DON'T need thousands of dice to prove something. It just increases your confidence level.

[DPTigerFan]

Hold on I am getting a PhD in Statistical Analysis to take a look. Hey MOM, can you come here for a minute! Yes, Pilate is correct each number should have the same odds of coming up, 1/6th of the time or 16.667%. Sample size would show accuracy not necessarily trend patterns. She said a lot more, but I got my dad's genetics for intelegence and didn't understand it all. She did mention that if you add both together and not treat as separate, you get a much more balanced distribution. She also doubted that what ever code was written for the dice would be different for attacking and defending.

[minihaymanz]

wow, you've just proved that you take the dice way to seriously.

obviously they're random, do you think lack has rigged the dice?

[Haydena]

If only you knew the trouble I was going through, was in a great position in my real time game, Had 9 in Madagascar, attacked South Africa that had 3 on and lost 6, then left it, next turn, attacked 7 on 2 from Middle East to Egypt and lost all of them, then lost 3 on 2 and 4 on 2. The dice have lost me yet another game.

Yeah ok, I can accept them, I just need to rant about them because they are losing me so many games it's ridiculous.

[Stopper]

I can vouch for this poor bloke. It almost hurt to watch!

[sully800]

If you're attacking 3 on 2 you shoudn't expect to win....and 4v2 is a move I wouldn't make unless absolutely necessary. The others are bad beats though, sure.

[TuckerCase]

She also doubted that what ever code was written for the dice would be different for attacking and defending.

Excellent point.

[MrsMad]

You just need a program to do it for you which I believe Mrs. Maid was working on? (sorry if I have that name wrong!)

Still waiting on a email back from lack. It's pretty much near completion but needs an ever-so-slight addition to the attacking page, which I'm still waiting to see if he'll do.

Pedronicus, your stats are interesting. I think it would need maybe 1000 dice shakes before you could say if it's truly fair/unfair either way. Ie if after 1000 dice shakes the attacker is still throwing a 3 21.5% of the time then there's something a bit odd about that.

[Telvannia]

i saw someone lose 8 people without killing any and he was only fighting one guy

this dice are not very good at their random function

[AndyDufresne]

I've seen the same thing with real, unaltered playing dice. Though maybe a secret gremlin slipped in and gave the person loaded dice...that same gremlin must be out to destroy CC's random generator of dice! Ahhhhh! Run!


--Andy

[Pilate]

I've seen the same thing with real, unaltered playing dice. Though maybe a secret gremlin slipped in and gave the person loaded dice...that same gremlin must be out to destroy CC's random generator of dice! Ahhhhh! Run!


--Andy

You should only see that less than 1 out of every 1000 tries of 8 versus 1.

[Telvannia]

thought everyone might like to know this the postion of third player in a game is cursed!!!!

ask fireside poet if you dont believe me

[sully800]

Well after having played a bit I do admit the dice seem a bit streaky. Overall I would bet they are random so if you use thousands of dice the results would look pretty even.

Someone earlier said that if you do well at the beginning of your attack it will probably continue and if you do poorly at the beginning of your attack it will continue as well. I have seen this happen much more here than in real games (where you rarely see someone take 30 men and lose 5 as I just did in a recent game).

I'm not going to say that the dice are a problem because it could just be in my head....but I have noticed what other people are talking about to a degree.

[spiesr]

The dice are random, so someone is going to have terrible rolling and someone is going to have good rolling, that's just how it is!

[Pedronicus]

Game 36675 – fucking shit bollox dice (i had to give up...)
Attacker rolls 3 4 3 Defender rolls 3 2
Attacker rolls 1 5 6 Defender rolls 1 1
Attacker rolls 4 4 1 Defender rolls 6 6
Attacker rolls 1 3 1 Defender rolls 1 2
Attacker rolls 1 5 6 Defender rolls 6 4
Attacker rolls 1 5 2 Defender rolls 5 3
Attacker rolls 1 2 6 Defender rolls 1 2
Attacker rolls 2 3 4 Defender rolls 4 6
Attacker rolls 5 2 5 Defender rolls 2 5
Attacker rolls 6 3 1 Defender rolls 5 2
Attacker rolls 6 2 1 Defender rolls 4 4
Attacker rolls 2 6 2 Defender rolls 5 2
Attacker rolls 1 1 1 Defender rolls 4 4
Attacker rolls 1 5 3 Defender rolls 6 5
Attacker rolls 3 4 6 Defender rolls 6 3
Attacker rolls 5 2 5 Defender rolls 4 4
Attacker rolls 2 6 2 Defender rolls 5 5
Attacker rolls 5 6 1 Defender rolls 3 1
Attacker rolls 3 1 3 Defender rolls 2 3
Attacker rolls 4 6 5 Defender rolls 4 2
Attacker rolls 3 6 6 Defender rolls 6 2
Attacker rolls 4 1 6 Defender rolls 6 4
Attacker rolls 6 5 2 Defender rolls 1 1
Attacker rolls 2 3 3 Defender rolls 3 6
Attacker rolls 4 6 2 Defender rolls 4 4
Attacker rolls 5 5 4 Defender rolls 3 6
Attacker rolls 3 1 1 Defender rolls 5 5
Attacker rolls 5 5 1 Defender rolls 3 5
Attacker rolls 1 3 2 Defender rolls 4 3
Attacker rolls 5 4 1 Defender rolls 3 2
Attacker rolls 2 3 5 Defender rolls 6 5
Attacker rolls 1 2 5 Defender rolls 4 4
Attacker rolls 2 1 2 Defender rolls 5
Attacker rolls 3 6 3 Defender rolls 1
Attacker rolls 5 5 6 Defender rolls 5
Attacker rolls 6 4 6 Defender rolls 5 6
Attacker rolls 6 2 6 Defender rolls 3 1
Attacker rolls 2 1 4 Defender rolls 6 6
Attacker rolls 3 2 5 Defender rolls 4 2
Attacker rolls 2 1 4 Defender rolls 5 1
Attacker rolls 4 1 1 Defender rolls 2
Attacker rolls 5 4 1 Defender rolls 4
Attacker rolls 1 3 4 Defender rolls 5
Attacker rolls 3 1 4 Defender rolls 4
Attacker rolls 5 3 2 Defender rolls 4
Attacker rolls 2 5 2 Defender rolls 2 5
Attacker rolls 1 1 Defender rolls 3 2
Attacker rolls 1 2 3 Defender rolls 2 1
Attacker rolls 1 2 4 Defender rolls 6 1
Attacker rolls 1 5 5 Defender rolls 1
Attacker rolls 4 5 1 Defender rolls 1
Attacker rolls 3 4 4 Defender rolls 2 2
Attacker rolls 6 1 4 Defender rolls 5 3
Attacker rolls 6 2 1 Defender rolls 3 1
Attacker rolls 6 2 4 Defender rolls 5 3
Attacker rolls 3 3 3 Defender rolls 5
Attacker rolls 3 3 4 Defender rolls 4
Attacker rolls 3 1 2 Defender rolls 4
Attacker rolls 5 2 2 Defender rolls 5
Attacker rolls 3 1 4 Defender rolls 1
Attacker rolls 3 5 1 Defender rolls 1
Attacker rolls 5 2 4 Defender rolls 1
Attacker rolls 3 4 2 Defender rolls 6 5
Attacker rolls 5 4 4 Defender rolls 5 3
Attacker rolls 5 4 1 Defender rolls 6 6
Attacker rolls 4 5 4 Defender rolls 2 2
Attacker rolls 6 5 6 Defender rolls 6 1
Attacker rolls 1 2 2 Defender rolls 5 5
Attacker rolls 6 1 2 Defender rolls 2 3
Attacker rolls 1 3 1 Defender rolls 6 5
Attacker rolls 6 3 5 Defender rolls 5 6
Attacker rolls 5 4 1 Defender rolls 5 1
Attacker rolls 2 2 1 Defender rolls 5 4
Attacker rolls 5 6 4 Defender rolls 3 6
Attacker rolls 1 2 4 Defender rolls 4 6
Attacker rolls 3 6 4 Defender rolls 5 1
Attacker rolls 4 3 4 Defender rolls 6 3
Attacker rolls 2 5 3 Defender rolls 3 3
Attacker rolls 1 3 2 Defender rolls 4 6
Attacker rolls 2 1 3 Defender rolls 5 2
Attacker rolls 1 2 5 Defender rolls 6 6
Attacker rolls 1 4 2 Defender rolls 1 4
Attacker rolls 2 1 3 Defender rolls 4 6
Attacker rolls 1 2 1 Defender rolls 6 3
Game 36675
Round 9
Time Remaining
00hrs 24min 36sec

Attacker rolls 6 5 6 Defender rolls 6 1

[Pedronicus]

the one thing that stands out from the above list is how many ones the attacker threw. Plus - the defender threw 66 four times.

(I'm too stoned to work the math on this set of throws)

I'll have a look lunchtime - Monday

[Pedronicus]

36675 Summary:
405 dice thrown in total
254 dice thrown by attacker (62.7%)
151 dice thrown by defender (37.3%)

Of the 254 attacking dice
1 thrown… 56 times (22.05%)
2 thrown… 47 times (18.5%)
3 thrown… 40 times (15.75%)
4 thrown… 39 times (15.35%)
5 thrown… 40 times (15.75%)
6 thrown… 32 times (12.6%)

Of the 151 defending dice
1 thrown… 23 times (15.23%)
2 thrown… 20 times (13.25%)
3 thrown… 22 times (14.57%)
4 thrown… 26 times (17.2%)
5 thrown… 31 times (20.53%)
6 thrown… 29 times (19.2%)


36675 + 36456 Summary:
683 dice thrown in total
428 dice thrown by attacker (62.7%)
255 dice thrown by defender (37.3%)

Of the 428 attacking dice
1 thrown… 85 times (19.86%)
2 thrown… 76 times (17.76%)
3 thrown… 77 times (17.99%)
4 thrown… 61 times (14.25%)
5 thrown… 65 times (15.19%)
6 thrown… 64 times (14.95%)

Of the 255 defending dice
1 thrown… 37 times (14.51%)
2 thrown… 34 times (13.33%)
3 thrown… 43 times (16.86%)
4 thrown… 47 times (18.43%)
5 thrown… 51 times (20.0%)
6 thrown… 43 times (16.86%)

[terrafutan]

Interesting stats. Put them next to each other and its plain to see the high dice are skewed the defenders way and the low dice are skewed the attackers way.

Attack | Defend
19.86 | 14.51
17.76 | 13.33
17.99 | 16.86
14.25 | 18.43
15.19 | 20.00
14.95 | 16.86

If you check the %s of how often the A throws a 1-3 its 55% as opposed to the defenders 45%

Look at the high numbers - A throws 4-6 44% of the time while D throws it the other 55%

I still think the dice are streaky - must have something to do with the dice file in use. Of course you can always break the streak.

[nascarfan38124]

the results clearly show an defender advantage

but what i really want to tell is that in all games i have played (on cc and on the actuall board game) the cc dice seem to be rolling lower numbers then the board game i dont know if it is my dice or cc's dice but mine seem to roll more higher numbers (both attacking and defending)