F400 Clan Ranking - Needs Repair

[skillfull]

I'm trying to get the discussion back on topic.

Sorry, i will shut up.

[chemefreak]

I'm trying to get the discussion back on topic.

Sorry, i will shut up.

Staying on topic is good.

[Crazyirishman]

can people be banned from writing in forums for a while?

I had a solution, but ti got promptly shot down in the suggs forum.



But in F400 news, for our matches against AOC in CL5, do both of them need to be finished before they count, or will they be added individually?

[Gilligan]

Top 15, yeah!

Enjoy it while it lasts

Pretty much. Went on a poor run in the RL.

[IcePack]

can people be banned from writing in forums for a while?

I had a solution, but ti got promptly shot down in the suggs forum.



But in F400 news, for our matches against AOC in CL5, do both of them need to be finished before they count, or will they be added individually?

Both

[chemefreak]

Ice - If you can do an update Saturday or Sunday morning that would be great. Sign ups end Friday night. Then we can do the draw on Sunday.

[IcePack]

10-4 will do

[benga]

HH-SOH 7-5 2013-04-15

FOED-TFFS 5-7 2013-04-15

ID-G1 10-2 2013-04-18

[chemefreak]

10-4 will do

Thanks!

[puppydog85]

ok, maybe a stupid question here:

I was sent here by someone who said there was a conversation here about why an average could not be done with the merger. Right now, looking through the last 10 pages, all I find is Ice saying it's too hard. Was there another conversation somewhere? I would be interested in finding out why it's too hard.

Secondly, is there a formula posted somewhere as to the rating calculator? I take it that it is not a simple ELO rating?

Thanks

[Vid_FISO]

ok, maybe a stupid question here:

I was sent here by someone who said there was a conversation here about why an average could not be done with the merger. Right now, looking through the last 10 pages, all I find is Ice saying it's too hard. Was there another conversation somewhere? I would be interested in finding out why it's too hard.

Secondly, is there a formula posted somewhere as to the rating calculator? I take it that it is not a simple ELO rating?

Thanks

The discussion has been spread over a number of threads including CL5 and most of the CC4 threads (some of which are very long), I have read it but couldn't nail down exactly where.

[Fewnix]

I am not sure if this helps or confuses

Welcome! For the example clan ranking based on all clan wars and Clan League data prior to Mar 29, go to this post:

http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewto ... 5#p3088157

The remainder of this post is my original post, describing the method and my initial application of it to the results of Clan League 3 only (nothing else). You have to start small, right?

Performance Rating is a hypothetical rating that would result from the games of a single event only. Some chess organizations use the "algorithm of 400" to calculate performance rating. According to this algorithm, performance rating for an event is calculated by taking (1) the rating of each player beaten and adding 400, (2) the rating of each player lost to and subtracting 400, (3) the rating of each player drawn, and (4) summing these figures and dividing by the number of games played. This can be expressed by the following formula:

Performance rating = [(Total of opponents' ratings + 400 * (Wins - Losses)) / Games].

I've taken this formula and modified it to get a clan ranking based on CL3 performance.

I treat each set of 18 games (19 games in finals) from CL3 as a single game between two clans where each clan either wins, loses or ties.
The points a clan gets for each set is a function of their opponents rating at that time.
The rating of a clan is the weighted average of all such accumulated points.
(weighting is by games in the set, so reg season sets are weighted at 18, finals weighted at 19)

I started each clan at 1000 points.



I assumed that KORT beat TSM in the regular season 10-8 (the data in the thread are incomplete at 9-8 favoring KORT).
If TSM tied KORT please let me know and I'll update the ratings

http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/postin ... &p=3078305

and then there is this post in the thread http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewto ... 5#p3088157:

I've updated the script.

http://www.killersapp.com/algorithmof400.htm

Decay Factor

There is now a decay factor. If the Data Window is set to 2 years (default), then a war today is weighted 100%, a war 6 months ago is 75%, 12 months ago is 50% and 18 months ago is 25%.

decay factor = Elapsed time from start of data window to clan war record / total length of data window

The weight changes continuously, day by day, so that over time, a clan's score will will not perceptibly spike up or down except immediately after conclusion of a new clan war.

Min Weight to Display in Ranking List

Restricts display of clans in the ranking list to those with minimum weight total. Total weight = Sum of products (decay * games) for each clan war record within data window. This ensures reliability of ranking.

ok, maybe a stupid question here:

I was sent here by someone who said there was a conversation here about why an average could not be done with the merger. Right now, looking through the last 10 pages, all I find is Ice saying it's too hard. Was there another conversation somewhere? I would be interested in finding out why it's too hard.

Secondly, is there a formula posted somewhere as to the rating calculator? I take it that it is not a simple ELO rating?

Thanks

The discussion has been spread over a number of threads including CL5 and most of the CC4 threads (some of which are very long), I have read it but couldn't nail down exactly where.

[IcePack]

ok, maybe a stupid question here:

I was sent here by someone who said there was a conversation here about why an average could not be done with the merger. Right now, looking through the last 10 pages, all I find is Ice saying it's too hard. Was there another conversation somewhere? I would be interested in finding out why it's too hard.

Secondly, is there a formula posted somewhere as to the rating calculator? I take it that it is not a simple ELO rating?

Thanks

It's not to hard, it's not possible.

[chemefreak]

Everyone should remember that Ice does this as a volunteer and we should all appreciate his hard work. Also, remember that for the Cup, only the Top 16 clans that enter will be seeded. The rest will be put into pools and some will have play-ins (randomly selected) and some will not.

[puppydog85]

Ok, just to clear this up: I greatly appreciate Ice and all that he does, my comment was as an outsider to this discussion merely wanting more information and being too lazy to look through 60+ pages of information (apparently consisting of josko and CoF for most of it). 2ndly, as a somewhat interested in math person, I am curious as to why in would be impossible, this is just to satisfy my curiosity as to the inner workings of this calculator. Again, I am not criticizing Ice nor am I the least bit interested in the Cup, whatever that is. (All this is if cheme was pointing at me with that general statement above)

[jj3044]

Ok, just to clear this up: I greatly appreciate Ice and all that he does, my comment was as an outsider to this discussion merely wanting more information and being too lazy to look through 60+ pages of information (apparently consisting of josko and CoF for most of it). 2ndly, as a somewhat interested in math person, I am curious as to why in would be impossible, this is just to satisfy my curiosity as to the inner workings of this calculator. Again, I am not criticizing Ice nor am I the least bit interested in the Cup, whatever that is. (All this is if cheme was pointing at me with that general statement above)

I don't have the time to look through all of the threads, but I do know that one of the issues raised would be that the "decay factor" wouldn't work, as if there was just a value put in for ACE, we wouldn't have any war history to decay.

[betiko]

oh well i heard the other day that the empire AOC wasn't a joke even if it was anounced on april fools day

ok just throwing here my 2 cents, and i'm sorry if it has already been discussed because I haven't read anthing, but why doesn't ACE just becomes the new name of AOC and you keep AOC just as it was before? no average or anything, it's AOC=ACE (just because it was higher ranked at the time of the merger).
This is what is done in professional sports when there is a merger between 2 clubs.

[ahunda]

2ndly, as a somewhat interested in math person, I am curious as to why in would be impossible, this is just to satisfy my curiosity as to the inner workings of this calculator.

As far as I know, the calculator (which means both the formula & the script running the calculations) were done by FarangDemon, who retired from CC years ago. IcePack collects all data (results of Clan challenges) and plugs it into the calculator, that produces the rankings then. Manual intervention is basically impossible.

IcePack could at any given time manually calculate the average score between 2 clans, but he cannot enter a clan into the calculator with a specific score. When he enters the data, all clans start at 0 (or rather 1000), and the script then processes all results in chronological order.

So it is impossible to have clan ACE start its history with the average score of AOC/Empire. It can start with 1000 (as all other clans) or with the score of either AOC or Empire at the time of their merger (by simply plugging in all former results of that clan for ACE).

Or you could plug in all former results of both AOC & Empire for ACE, but that seems not a good solution. The calculator weighs score of the opposition at the time of the challenge (so that a 20-20 against the #1 clan weighs differently than a 20-20 against the #30 clan). Merging all prior results of AOC & Empire into one (kind of pretending they have been one clan from the get-go) would therefore have quite an impact on all other clans, that faced them earlier.

Hope, that helps.

[betiko]

2ndly, as a somewhat interested in math person, I am curious as to why in would be impossible, this is just to satisfy my curiosity as to the inner workings of this calculator.

As far as I know, the calculator (which means both the formula & the script running the calculations) were done by FarangDemon, who retired from CC years ago. IcePack collects all data (results of Clan challenges) and plugs it into the calculator, that produces the rankings then. Manual intervention is basically impossible.

IcePack could at any given time manually calculate the average score between 2 clans, but he cannot enter a clan into the calculator with a specific score. When he enters the data, all clans start at 0 (or rather 1000), and the script then processes all results in chronological order.

So it is impossible to have clan ACE start its history with the average score of AOC/Empire. It can start with 1000 (as all other clans) or with the score of either AOC or Empire at the time of their merger (by simply plugging in all former results of that clan for ACE).

Or you could plug in all former results of both AOC & Empire for ACE, but that seems not a good solution. The calculator weighs score of the opposition at the time of the challenge (so that a 20-20 against the #1 clan weighs differently than a 20-20 against the #30 clan). Merging all prior results of AOC & Empire into one (kind of pretending they have been one clan from the get-go) would therefore have quite an impact on all other clans, that faced them earlier.

Hope, that helps.

well as I said, renaming AOC ACE in the F400 seems like the most logical and simple thing to do.

[chemefreak]

Ok, just to clear this up: I greatly appreciate Ice and all that he does, my comment was as an outsider to this discussion merely wanting more information and being too lazy to look through 60+ pages of information (apparently consisting of josko and CoF for most of it). 2ndly, as a somewhat interested in math person, I am curious as to why in would be impossible, this is just to satisfy my curiosity as to the inner workings of this calculator. Again, I am not criticizing Ice nor am I the least bit interested in the Cup, whatever that is. (All this is if cheme was pointing at me with that general statement above)

Yo, I wasn't calling you out bud. I was just making sure everyone didn't jump on Ice all of a sudden! (Not that he needs and/or wants my assistance ) With sign ups almost complete, the focus is going to shift to the F400 for a few days. I just wanted everyone to know that we are paying attention and in this matter Ice is just going to do what he feels is best for the system. If that means ACE gets put in the random pool, instead of a Top 16 ranking, they will just have to deal with it!

Speaking for a lower ranked clan, please god don't make us play them in a play-in! Of course, this might be the best time to beat them...while they are "trying out" new partners

[Chariot of Fire]

Ice....if ACE came in at 1000 on the F400, by what score would TOFU need to beat them in a 41 game challenge in order to not lose points?

[shoop76]

Is it correct to say that a new clan starts out at 1000 this equivalent to 21st on the last rankings. If this clan is actually of a lesser ability than that staying score wouldn't it be a huge advantage for the clan that plays them first.

Basically, if a clan plays all new clans that will in all likelihood be bottom feeders in the future and rack up easy wins against them isn't that in a way inflating a clan's ranking.

[ahunda]

Yes, that is correct. But there are limits to that kind of practice. Because the formula also takes into account the score difference between two clans: The greater the difference, the greater the win margin needs to be for the higher ranked clan to gain any points at all.

If you go back 2-3 pages in this thread, you´ll find CoF complaining, that TOFU actually lost points on the F400 Ranking for beating a bottom clan 9-3 or something. Because of the huge score difference between them, TOFU would have needed to beat them even higher to still gain points for the F400.

It´s a bit like the CC scoreboard in that regard. Once you reach General (or Brig, or whatever), you actually need to beat a Cook 9 times out of 10 to merely break even in points.

So yeah, you might be able to artificially inflate your score by beating up weak opponents for a while, but on long term you´ll have to beat those weak opponents by an ever increasing margin to still gain points, until you reach a point, where you simply can´t do it anymore.

[Dako]

If I were ACE I'd like a new clean slate to start from. Not some past results of AOC or Empire.

[Chariot of Fire]

It was 10-2. We had to beat them 11-1 to not lose points, a score which I find unrealistic.

Re ACE - if they do start with a clean slate then it's rather unfair for the clans who have to meet them, as I expect it will adversely affect their F400 ranking.