JK9++ ENDGAME Mafia Wins

vodean · Post by **vodean** » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:39 pm

DoomYoshi wrote:VT has died. Night 1 start.

im assuming that ISNT the scene, right?

betiko · Post by **betiko** » Tue Aug 21, 2012 9:34 am

vodean wrote:
DoomYoshi wrote:VT has died. Night 1 start.
im assuming that ISNT the scene, right?

redhedge is supposed to write it, i guess he's not going to show up for it once he died. we shouldn't expect any flavour from scenes in this game as players write them... all hints and deductions are to be made from the mafia wiki page i'd say. or can dead people reveal stuff they know in their death scene?

DoomYoshi · Post by **DoomYoshi** » Wed Aug 22, 2012 11:43 am

campin_killer wrote: It was dark.

He stood in the field, a rifle slung over his shoulder...

He knew they were coming...

As he heard them coming, he drew his rifle and began to fire.

However they were more accurate...

Campin_killer, Mafia goon has been killed.

Last I checked, posting death scenes was the job of the moderator.

Lord voldemort, vanilla townie, has died.

Day 2 begin.

trinicardinal · Post by **trinicardinal** » Wed Aug 22, 2012 12:46 pm

Well that would have been a lot worse... 2 people killed but at least we only lost a VT for town and we got one mafia!

question - 2 kills... does this mean

a) 1 mafia kill, 1 SK kill
b) 1 SK kill, 1 vig kill
c) 1 mafia kill, 1 vig kill

given the uncertainties surrounding Campin in Day 1 I'm inclined to assume a vig kil... Assuming that, the next question becomes was the other kill from mafia or SK - in other words was the kill going to be performed by Campin but he was killed before he could do it and the kill is from an SK instead?... did his kill still go through? did another mafia perform the kill?

quite a few questions but at the point of the start of D2 we're in a pretty good position... we've only lost VT's and a mafia goon is dead!

trinicardinal · Post by **trinicardinal** » Wed Aug 22, 2012 12:47 pm

EBWOP.... I forgot.... VOTE: trinicardinal since I have no idea who to vote for yet but must have a vote out.

jonty125 · Post by **jonty125** » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:38 pm

Erm, where is Lord Voldemort's scene?? Anyhow, we definitely have mafia and SK, vig is a possibility. I'd bet that the guy who killed Campin was the SK and the guy who killed Lord Voldemort was the mafia. Vigs shouldn't be shooting N1, unless there has been a counterclaim.

pancakemix · Post by **pancakemix** » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:45 pm

Vote Count because I must.

Here's what we know so far:

T is >=2
K is >=1 OR T is an odd number

Campin's death doesn't really help us in determining the setup in and of itself, but it does tell us we have another killing role. Friend or foe is up for question. I'd agree with trini that I'm inclined to believe it's a vig kill.

@trini: Getting killed won't cancel your action unless you were trying to get a result (track, etc.) Unless we have a jailkeeper who's a boss (possible) or the mafia used a JOAT block (which I doubt), there are only two killers.

trinicardinal · Post by **trinicardinal** » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:03 pm

@ jonty - I'm guessing that Lovo's scene was this:

DoomYoshi wrote:
Last I checked, posting death scenes was the job of the moderator.

Lord voldemort, vanilla townie, has died.
Day 2 begin.

@ pcm... that makes sense I suppose... so question... if there are only 2 killers are they both anti town or are we lucky enough to only have 1 anti town killer? if the kill was a vig the other issue we would have is that the vig was either really sure about Campin or is eager to kill... which could also end up hurting town in future nights if he/she becomes overeager.... also how many other mafia are there remaining as well (potentially from the setup possibilities it seems like it should be no more than 2 remaining)?

pancakemix · Post by **pancakemix** » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:19 pm

Your guess about the second killer's alignment is as good as mine. I trust (if it's a vig) that they'll only follow their nose if the lead is extremely good, as the Campin lead may have been seen. We can't be sure of that though. The facts will come to light soon enough.

trinicardinal · Post by **trinicardinal** » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:57 pm

let's hope so... as you say we'll find out soon enough I guess.. it would definitely be nice if it turns out to be a vig and not SK. Here's hoping!

Iron Butterfly · Post by **Iron Butterfly** » Wed Aug 22, 2012 3:36 pm

jonty125 wrote:Erm, where is Lord Voldemort's scene?? Anyhow, we definitely have mafia and SK, vig is a possibility. I'd bet that the guy who killed Campin was the SK and the guy who killed Lord Voldemort was the mafia. Vigs shouldn't be shooting N1, unless there has been a counterclaim.

I completely disagree.

If you are an SK the win condition will be to survive till the end. Why kill someone who is probable scum? The intelligent option would be to kill someone other then Campin as Campin was under the gun anyways. Towards the end I was very comfortable lynching Campin as he played like he had something to hide.

If I were a vig I would have no trouble targeting Campin night one. At the worst we lose a one shot tracker.

I do not understand fully the open format but I do believe there would be a very low probobility to have a SK, a Vig AND the Town protective role getting so lucky as to block a night one mafia kill.

Vote Jonty because I must AND I find your play scummy as well

DoomYoshi · Post by **DoomYoshi** » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:38 pm

I can answer any questions about the setup, just shoot me a pm with some specific questions.

thechuck51 · Post by **thechuck51** » Wed Aug 22, 2012 7:25 pm

Not much to go off of here... going to have to re-read and see if anybody was interacting in an odd way with campin. But since I have to vote i will vote samgrossy

samgrossy · Post by **samgrossy** » Wed Aug 22, 2012 8:24 pm

I'm still here, just wanted to check in. I'm still on vacation, and I'm trying to keep tabs as best as I can. I'll have to look more in depth into the scummy behavior on day 1.

And because I must and he has no votes yet: VOTE CHUCK

jonty125 · Post by **jonty125** » Thu Aug 23, 2012 2:26 am

Iron Butterfly wrote:
jonty125 wrote:Erm, where is Lord Voldemort's scene?? Anyhow, we definitely have mafia and SK, vig is a possibility. I'd bet that the guy who killed Campin was the SK and the guy who killed Lord Voldemort was the mafia. Vigs shouldn't be shooting N1, unless there has been a counterclaim.
I completely disagree.

If you are an SK the win condition will be to survive till the end. Why kill someone who is probable scum?

Maybe they (SK) bought the claim and didn't want to get caught killing their target?

Iron Butterfly wrote: If I were a vig I would have no trouble targeting Campin night one. At the worst we lose a one shot tracker.

VIGS SHOULD NOT KILL ON NIGHT ONE!, anyhow? What would be the gain, if you did? If Campin really was a 1-shot, then there would definitely be a town tracker to confirm that's where he went. If Campin was and is scum, there is 99.9998% chance that we have AT LEAST one tracker, never mind the chance of a role cop.

Iron Butterfly wrote: I do not understand fully the open format but I do believe there would be a very low probobility to have a SK, a Vig AND the Town protective role getting so lucky as to block a night one mafia kill.

I agree, but I'm fairly sure the vig (assuming there is one) did not shoot (well, they shouldn't of at least)

Iron Butterfly wrote: Vote Jonty because I must AND I find your play scummy as well

But you haven't said anything about me being scummy in your post, just [paraphrase]"I don't think it was an SK who shot Campin", "If I were a vig I would have shot Campin", and "I don't think it is probable that we have a vig an SK, and a mafia, and then that the mafia gets blocked".[/paraphrase]

So all in all vote IB For, agreeing with vigging of Campin on N1 (as we would almost definitely be strung up today), and then for voting for me being scummy, without giving me anything to defend about being scummy, or what I've done.

VioIet · Post by **VioIet** » Thu Aug 23, 2012 2:46 am

I just couldn't help but analyze a few voting patterns here:

Once the mod posts the vote count, and we see that Campin is at L-4- Campin immediately unvotes himself and votes redhedge. Now, In retrospect, we understand why.

Campin_Killer wrote:Unvote, vote Redhedge

Very inactive, with a few "fluff" posts.

Plus I don't want to die, since I could help people

However, look who follows immediately:

Count Belisle wrote:I know what Redhedge is talking about I have been there myself. it's tough to juggle school, RL situations and CC.
so I want to help him out. free up his time so to speak.

Unvote, vote Redhedge

The very next post, Count Belisle follows suit. Is this close timing just a coincidence, or a scum tell?

I am still ignorant of the setup, as its been about two weeks since I looked at that wiki-page. But I'm thinking that some action got re-directed that resulted in Campin being killed. I need to see if bus-driver or iron rod is a possible role. It's hard to believe that a 13 player game would really have a SK- it just seems to small a number.

betiko wrote:i was rereading the rules, so basically campin s role could fit ONLY if there is a tracker among us. therefore; i think we should ask campin to go visit tonight whoever he thinks is the scummiest and our tracker follows campin to see if he really has this ability. if this is true, these 2 combinations are impossible:

TTTTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Serial Killer

TTTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver

meaning we are facing one of these combination:

TTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Serial Killer

TTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT (Roleblock, Ninja Kill, Strongman Kill)

TTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT, Serial Killer

TT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT

T = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT, Serial Killer

0 Ts = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT

According to Betiko's post, it looks as though a Bus Drier is indeed a possible role. But for now, I am going to Vote Count Belisle.

trinicardinal · Post by **trinicardinal** » Thu Aug 23, 2012 9:32 am

@ jonty

I agree that if Campin was a one shot tracker then that would mean that there would have to be a full tracker otherwise... what I cannot follow is that where Campin is scum (as proven) that there is " there is 99.9998% chance that we have AT LEAST one tracker". I don't follow how you came up with that conclusion... maybe I'm just dense but I don't get it... Also while I agree that in most circumstances I would not expect a vig to kill N1 I can understand why a vig might choose to go against that convention on this occasion with Campin. Certainly if I were a vig and had decided to kill on N1 Campin would have been my top choice... As it turns out it definitely worked for us and given everything I can understand why a vig might have decided that it was worth the risk.

killing Campin N1 also means that, since we don't have to lynch him today, we are free to pursue other leads and maybe get a lot more information to help us. with all that being said your vote on IB looks a bit like an OMGUS vote to me. it seems to come down to - because he agreed with a vig kill on N1 voted for me so FOS on you, jonty, for that

@ pcm

- I follow you with the K is >=1 OR T is an odd number but I don't follow how you got T is >=2 could you expand on it for me.... to me any value of T results in a set up that has a Mafia Goon in it.

@ Vio

Based on what I read all possible roles are as follows

Vanilla Townie
Town Tracker
Town 1-Shot Tracker
Town Doctor
Town Jailkeeper
Town Hider
Town 1-Shot Commuter
Town Vengeful
Town Vigilante
Town Role Cop
Town Gunsmith
Mafia Goon
Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver
Mafia JOAT
Serial Killer

not all will exist and some can only exist if others exist so, for example, the 1shot tracker wouldn't be there unless there was already a tracker.

I agree that Count's timing for the vote switch is unusual... in fact given the deadline Count ended up casting the lynching vote and its strange that it was so quickly after Campin's vote as well - as you say it could just be coincidence but it could also have been bandwagonning by mafia. His stated reason for the switch in vote isn't exactly the best either:

Count Belisle wrote:I know what Redhedge is talking about I have been there myself. it's tough to juggle school, RL situations and CC.
so I want to help him out. free up his time so to speak.

Unvote, vote Redhedge

All in all its suspicious enough for me to say Unvote: Vote Count

pancakemix · Post by **pancakemix** » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:26 am

I follow you with the K is >=1 OR T is an odd number but I don't follow how you got T is >=2 could you expand on it for me.... to me any value of T results in a set up that has a Mafia Goon in it.

There are two dead vanilla townies.

And yes, all setups will yield a Mafia Goon. That's why I said Campins death doesn't inherently help us insofar as figuring out the setup.

trinicardinal · Post by **trinicardinal** » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:35 am

pancakemix wrote:
I follow you with the K is >=1 OR T is an odd number but I don't follow how you got T is >=2 could you expand on it for me.... to me any value of T results in a set up that has a Mafia Goon in it.
There are two dead vanilla townies.

Well knock me over and call me stupid I never even thought about checking that sort of stuff.... interesting thought... I need to take another look at the setup up possibilities.

betiko · Post by **betiko** » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:15 pm

sorry guys for not being present yet since day 2, I wanted to have a better look at the settings after all the learnings of night 1, didn't have time and iwill do it a bit later today.

anyway, since I got to vote for my first post of the day, I got to say I like the case vio has started on count belisle, and I want to pressure this way.

vote count belisle

betiko · Post by **betiko** » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:25 pm

actually we don t know that much more, but here are the only options left. Anyone reading this and being a VT can remove the last one, the TT as that one would be impossible.
I've removed 1 mafia goon from all options because campin is dead, all options with mafia goons down there would be a second mafia goon, still alive.

TTTTTTT = Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Serial Killer

TTTTTT = Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver

TTTTT = Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Serial Killer

TTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT (Roleblock, Ninja Kill, Strongman Kill)

TTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT, Serial Killer

TT = Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT

jonty125 · Post by **jonty125** » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:34 pm

I assume we don't have any information from night, from players.

I've realised there isn't a 99.9998% chance of having a tracker. It's actually about 68%. Apologies, I did the wrong sum

betiko · Post by **betiko** » Sat Aug 25, 2012 7:06 pm

count belisle and vodean still haven t shown up on day2 they might deserve a little prodding; especially for count belisle who has heat on his buns

thechuck51 · Post by **thechuck51** » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:33 pm

In addition to what violet said about voting patterns Count supported Campin's fake claim and also seemed uncomfortable with Jonty's position on Campin.

Count Belisle wrote: I believe Campins role is quite possible, I read the game set up and this is all randomized isn't it? the randomization will tell you the roles you will get and then the mod just passes them out right?

Now both Campin and Redheadge have been prodded and they both chimed in, and Campin came forth with a claim, now what about this......

jonty125 wrote:Maybe the mod could temporarily replace redhedge and tell us his role. 39 hours until deadline. I say we lynch redhedge, REGARDLESS of whether he shows up or not, because sitting on our hands does us no favours.
why does Jonty want to Lynch redhedge why not just say either of them ( Campin or Redhedge)
do we want to ask Redhedge some questions too? or would that be risking to much for town?

I need to double check the vote count but I intend to vote Count.

DoomYoshi · Post by **DoomYoshi** » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:46 pm

Vote Count

Count(4) - PCM, Vio, trini, betiko
Jonty (1) - IB
Samgrossy (1) - thechuck
Thechuck51 (1) - sam
IB (1) - jonty

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch (or 3 if deadline is reached).
Deadline is Sep 5th.

Count Belisle and vodean have not voted or posted yet. I am prodding them both now.

JK9++ ENDGAME Mafia Wins

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