Play the Mod Mafia, EndGame! Don't Play The Mod

[everywhere116]

I did notice that when i threw my idea of a random lynch in hopes of getting the mod, that Spiesr jumped on Vodean right away, putting Vodean at 2 votes, seeming to not want a random lynch.

You are correct in that I was not very attracted to the random lynch idea. My reasoning being that I thought that the chances of us hitting the mod with it were lower than us hitting a random townie, and possibly without the benefit of having made cases and argued about lynching that person then we wouldn't be making any forward progress. Not that I thought it was very likely that enough people would agree with the idea for it to be feasible anyhow...

My particular thought was that we had around a 1/2 chance of hitting the mod (given that current assumptions were correct) versus a 1/7 chance of hitting the mod blindly, and possibly costing us a powerful role without any info. I also had my question answered with one extra vote, one unvote without support for the lynch for any specific player, and one person who had the opportunity to unvote but didn't, and the deadline was mere hours away.

On an unrelated note my u and j keys seem to be acting up.

[pmchugh]

We should have all unvote and random lynched. Random lynching between me and vodean would have been silly, there are a few points I find suspicious in each of you.

1. Why soundman has been inconsistent with his night action claims and then not claimed at all.
2. Why speisr backed lynching vodean and me second, he is good enough to see through the game being that simple.

There are only a few of us left. I am going to use my action tonight but I don't expect it to be much use given the two previous nights.

[vodean]

imo you are all scummy. good luck with sorting out the scum.

[jonty125]

We should have all unvote and random lynched.

So lynching a random person, is better than lynching the scummiest?

[pmchugh]

We should have all unvote and random lynched.

So lynching a random person, is better than lynching the scummiest?

Vodean was mostly a null read to me, I didn't understand her but given the way night one actions were so well messed with I was inclined to believe she was framed. I appear to be next on peoples lists as well, for no good reason. So in answer to your question, it is better to lynch a random person than lynch the person wrongly perceived to be the most scummy by town*.


*This may not be true in other games, like on day 1 for example. But in a game where only one lynch is needed to be correct, then as long as the current lynch target is less likely than average to be the mod then random is better.

[jonty125]

it is better to lynch a random person than lynch the person wrongly perceived to be the most scummy by town

Isn't that the general concept behind every mislynch?

[vodean]

Using the principles of game theory, it would actually slightly increase your chances of hitting mod.

[jonty125]

Using the principles of game theory, it would actually slightly increase your chances of hitting mod.

Shush dead.

[Nebuchadnezer]

Using the principles of game theory, it would actually slightly increase your chances of hitting mod.

Shush dead.

I would have liked the random kill...add something new to the game.

Also, jonty, you have been very quiet, and rarely posting; adding almost no insight or help for the town. Why would we NOT lynch you tomorrow?

[jonty125]

Also, jonty, you have been very quiet, and rarely posting

That is a very unfair comment, On D3, I posted every RT day (except one where I couldn't reach my CPU).

adding almost no insight or help for the town

I have tried my best; but don't have too many reads.

Why would we NOT lynch you tomorrow?

Because I'm not the mod . Anyway, I believe I've answered you points.

[Nebuchadnezer]

Yes, Jonty, you answered my questions.

Something still doesn't feel right about you. Of course, I could say that about almost everyone...Perhaps I'm playing a bit too paranoid...perhaps you're playing it a bit too safe. Your vote on vodean was your first vote of the game. 1 vote in three days. (not counting the joke vote on D1). It seems all too safe and too neatly packaged.

I guess I can't put my finger on it quite yet...but I wouldn't mind seeing some pressure on Jonty...get him talking more.

[pmchugh]

Ok I reread the entire thread and here are my thoughts.

Soundman- Hasn't given much to read into so I don't really know. Defo needs to clear up his claim, (it is pretty obvious by now that your action is useless so you may as well claim) and there are too many discrepancies in what you have said.

Neb- There are one or two posts which highly suggest to me that he is town, if not then well played neb.

Jonty- Highly suspect to me. He seems to have a good grasp of the game from the start and all of the rules, he has followed them impeccably and he sits well in knowing enough about me and sg7 to put our names down but maybe not too much which would explain his kills. He also seemed to be the only one to use the word "Redleg" properly in a sentence.

Crazy/Speisr- Crazy didn't do much except agree with the majority. It is kind of hard to place him, although it was suspicious that he didn't seem to care about the contradicting reports on day 2, and that he pushed/hammered the lynch on sg7. Spesir was suspect when he came in, especially for picking me and vode out the crowd. would expect more from him.

Everywere- Early claim and throwing suspicions at all of us. Slight town read.

So my order of mod likelihood is:
1. Jonty
2. Speisr
3. Everywhere and Soundman
5. Neb

[jonty125]

Jonty- Highly suspect to me. He seems to have a good grasp of the game from the start and all of the rules, he has followed them impeccably and he sits well in knowing enough about me and sg7 to put our names down but maybe not too much which would explain his kills. He also seemed to be the only one to use the word "Redleg" properly in a sentence.

To be honest, I am flattered. About following the rules, I don't want to get modkilled. Yes, I agree I could very easily throw SG7 under the bus (don't understand about you being "dirty nose"). I have never heard of the word redleg. A bit of WIFOM (like the rest of the case), if I have a good grasp of the game, surely if I was mod, I would have commited a small massacre at the start of D1?

[pmchugh]

Jonty- Highly suspect to me. He seems to have a good grasp of the game from the start and all of the rules, he has followed them impeccably and he sits well in knowing enough about me and sg7 to put our names down but maybe not too much which would explain his kills. He also seemed to be the only one to use the word "Redleg" properly in a sentence.

To be honest, I am flattered. About following the rules, I don't want to get modkilled. Yes, I agree I could very easily throw SG7 under the bus (don't understand about you being "dirty nose"). I have never heard of the word redleg. A bit of WIFOM (like the rest of the case), if I have a good grasp of the game, surely if I was mod, I would have commited a small massacre at the start of D1?

This is one thing I don't understand. Why the mod doesn't just kill people. It makes no sense to me, at first I though he must have screwed up but most of those people are dead now. I actually suspected neb at one point for it, as he suggested the mod would like to mess with peoples heads but other posts create too much WIFOM that he is unlikely. Everyone could see that there were a lot of mistakes, so I can't explain why you, or most others would not create a "small massacre".

The best explanation is that they are doing it to f*ck with our heads, in which case it is is best left ignored. Can you explain the lack of kills?

[jonty125]

so I can't explain why you, or most others would not create a "small massacre".

The best explanation is that they are doing it to f*ck with our heads, in which case it is is best left ignored. Can you explain the lack of kills?

No, I can't. Why do you think I can, if you can't?

[everywhere116]

He also seemed to be the only one to use the word "Redleg" properly in a sentence.

I don't quite understand. How do you use the word "Redleg" properly or improperly?

[pmchugh]

so I can't explain why you, or most others would not create a "small massacre".

The best explanation is that they are doing it to f*ck with our heads, in which case it is is best left ignored. Can you explain the lack of kills?

No, I can't. Why do you think I can, if you can't?

No but you used it as a defense, i.e. that I could not explain it. If you cannot explain it either, then it is not really a valid defense.

He also seemed to be the only one to use the word "Redleg" properly in a sentence.

I don't quite understand. How do you use the word "Redleg" properly or improperly?

Most people just used it as the end of a sentence or something, but it does actually have a meaning. According to wiki, it is a certain kind of immigrant and he used it when referring to a person. Of course, it could be coincidence.

[Nebuchadnezer]

I would like to see a full Soundman claim, complete with who he directed his actions at N1 and N2.

I would also like to pressure Jonty...I don't know if that means having him claim now, or wait until D4...

I guess PMC and I are kind step in step with our thoughts. His Watcher claim, to me, is pretty good. You'd have to be one ballsy "mod" to come out and claim that on D1, just to get one lynch on a town.

Everywhere's claim of roleblocker is also pretty good in my book, although this is easy to hide behind, as he can claim "i didn't use my role last night."

Spiesr/Crazymilkshake5 I'm a little suspicious of. Something about how Crazy kept referring to the rules as "crazy" on D1. Then he got quiet and there were no mod-kills D3. Spiesr comes in, and the only mod-killable offender is lynched. WIFOM, but one explanation for no modkill day 3.

Jonty and Spiesr haven't claimed anything yet, but neither have I.

[jonty125]

so I can't explain why you, or most others would not create a "small massacre".

The best explanation is that they are doing it to f*ck with our heads, in which case it is is best left ignored. Can you explain the lack of kills?
No, I can't. Why do you think I can, if you can't?

No but you used it as a defense,

I was suggesting if I was "hands on" the game, like you said, then I would have committed a small massacre on D1, if I was the mod and the redleg think was a coincidence.

[pmchugh]

so I can't explain why you, or most others would not create a "small massacre".

The best explanation is that they are doing it to f*ck with our heads, in which case it is is best left ignored. Can you explain the lack of kills?
No, I can't. Why do you think I can, if you can't?

No but you used it as a defense,

I was suggesting if I was "hands on" the game, like you said, then I would have committed a small massacre on D1, if I was the mod and the redleg think was a coincidence.

Are you suggesting that the mod must have been quite inactive and that is why the kill count was low?

[jonty125]

so I can't explain why you, or most others would not create a "small massacre".

The best explanation is that they are doing it to f*ck with our heads, in which case it is is best left ignored. Can you explain the lack of kills?
No, I can't. Why do you think I can, if you can't?

No but you used it as a defense,

I was suggesting if I was "hands on" the game, like you said, then I would have committed a small massacre on D1, if I was the mod and the redleg think was a coincidence.

Are you suggesting that the mod must have been quite inactive and that is why the kill count was low?

That is a possibility. Or they broke the rules and didn't want to expose themselves, that way.

[soundman]

I want to see what happens tonight with my action. If I'm not dead in the morning I'll claim.

As for suspects... Neb seems to have changed his playstyle slightly. Can't put my finger on what he has changed but it just seems different to me. Nothing major but it just keeps popping up in my head.

[Nebuchadnezer]

I want to see what happens tonight with my action. If I'm not dead in the morning I'll claim.

Well, that will help us out exactly this much if you do die ----> 0

I'm not sure why it makes such a difference, but have it your way...I'll give you some leeway here. Just make sure you post your results first thing...just in case you screw up and get mod-killed.

[pmchugh]

I want to see what happens tonight with my action. If I'm not dead in the morning I'll claim.

As for suspects... Neb seems to have changed his playstyle slightly. Can't put my finger on what he has changed but it just seems different to me. Nothing major but it just keeps popping up in my head.

Seriously dude, if your action is even remotely useful I would be shocked.

[spiesr]

Crazy/Speisr- Crazy didn't do much except agree with the majority. It is kind of hard to place him, although it was suspicious that he didn't seem to care about the contradicting reports on day 2, and that he pushed/hammered the lynch on sg7. Spesir was suspect when he came in, especially for picking me and vode out the crowd. would expect more from him.

What exactly do you expect? Out of the people alive you and Vodean had done the most stuff, so when I was reading through the thread looking for things to comment on you guys came up the most.

Then he got quiet and there were no mod-kills D3. Spiesr comes in, and the only mod-killable offender is lynched. WIFOM, but one explanation for no modkill day 3.

Don't you think that the reason that there weren't any modkills on Day 3 might have more to do with how only one person broke the rules (too my knowledge, and apparently yours) and he ended up getting lynched?