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Can you elaborate on why you think that the hypothetical cop (and there probably is not more than 1) has a better chance of finding a scum and surviving long enough to tell us about it than we do a lynching correctly?thechuck51 wrote:There has to be a couple investigative roles and I think the chances of one of them catching scum tonight is better than our chances of lynching scum today.
spiesr wrote:Can you elaborate on why you think that the hypothetical cop (and there probably is not more than 1) has a better chance of finding a scum and surviving long enough to tell us about it than we do a lynching correctly?thechuck51 wrote:There has to be a couple investigative roles and I think the chances of one of them catching scum tonight is better than our chances of lynching scum today.
Working off your assumptions of non-town numbers, my math says that the chances of the cop finding a scum and not being killed come out at around 24%. Although, if we have a doctor the number goes up somewhat...thechuck51 wrote:I would guess there is some combination of a cop and tracker, or a tracker and a watcher, or cop and a watcher. At the minimum we must have at least one investigative role right?
Assuming Alien and Ash are scum we have a 2 in 8 (25%) chance of lynching one of them.
Our "cop" has a 2 in 7 (29%) chance of spotting scum at night while the mafia has a 1 in 6 (17%) chance of NK'ing him.
the 29% choice give us the best chance.
thechuck51 wrote:spiesr wrote:Can you elaborate on why you think that the hypothetical cop (and there probably is not more than 1) has a better chance of finding a scum and surviving long enough to tell us about it than we do a lynching correctly?thechuck51 wrote:There has to be a couple investigative roles and I think the chances of one of them catching scum tonight is better than our chances of lynching scum today.
I would guess there is some combination of a cop and tracker, or a tracker and a watcher, or cop and a watcher. At the minimum we must have at least one investigative role right?
Assuming Alien and Ash are scum we have a 2 in 8 (25%) chance of lynching one of them.
Our "cop" has a 2 in 7 (29%) chance of spotting scum at night while the mafia has a 1 in 6 (17%) chance of NK'ing him.
the 29% choice give us the best chance.
safariguy5 wrote:thechuck51 wrote:spiesr wrote:Can you elaborate on why you think that the hypothetical cop (and there probably is not more than 1) has a better chance of finding a scum and surviving long enough to tell us about it than we do a lynching correctly?thechuck51 wrote:There has to be a couple investigative roles and I think the chances of one of them catching scum tonight is better than our chances of lynching scum today.
I would guess there is some combination of a cop and tracker, or a tracker and a watcher, or cop and a watcher. At the minimum we must have at least one investigative role right?
Assuming Alien and Ash are scum we have a 2 in 8 (25%) chance of lynching one of them.
Our "cop" has a 2 in 7 (29%) chance of spotting scum at night while the mafia has a 1 in 6 (17%) chance of NK'ing him.
the 29% choice give us the best chance.
You're making the assumption that Ash is mafia or at least anti town. That is unconfirmed. Also, you seem to suggest we may have more than one investigative role. That depends on game balance.
But I agree, SK AND cult recruiter is too much. I simply raise the possibility of the Alien as being a cult recruiter because of flavor, but if we are assuming that Ash is anti town as well, then Traitor+SKer seems more likely.
Iron Butterfly wrote:That would be rather silly. An SK kills and eliminates. A recruiter recruits to their side.
For the sake of game balance I do not beleive there would be both.
I think we are reading to much into how the charachter and movie will effect gameplay. No matter what flavor or game theme it is first and foremost a mafia game.
Somthing did cross my mind about the cop. I would be curious as to how ash and an alien would turn out. I would think Human vs Not Human.
Iliad wrote:The upside of calling everyone scum and making 1000 predictions is that statistically you should get a few right.
jak111 wrote:Well I'm Lambert. I'm not gonna role claim but that's the name. So I can guarantee that there's movie characters here.
Anyone else feel like claiming a non-movie character to help us settle this part?
spiesr wrote:Well, since nobody has come forward and claimed to be Ash, I am more or less assuming that he is not pro-town. Based on this assumption I suggest that we use our limited time remaining today to make people name-claim until we can force him out.
safariguy5 wrote:I'm fine with a name claim, I'm Ripley, so def a movie character.
Just wanted to see if anyone was actually going to go through with it before I claimed myself.thechuck51 wrote:spiesr wrote:Since this is your idea shouldn't you be setting the example for everybody else and name-claiming?
safariguy5 wrote:Hmm...this is interesting.
There are 8 players here, one of which would be the Alien.
There were 7 crew members,
Dallas ~ IB
Kane ~ Spiesr
Lambert ~ Jak
Ripley ~ Saf
Ash
Brett ~ S7C
Parker ~ Freezie
However, according to the scene flavor, Kane is already dead. Therefore, who is the last player supposed to be? Could be the cat I suppose.
Also, we have to wonder at whether Ash would be considered a townie or not.
freezie wrote:why do I feel this is going to screw the whole game down..Either in our favor, either deeply against us.....
Parker.
nagerous wrote:freezie wrote:why do I feel this is going to screw the whole game down..Either in our favor, either deeply against us.....
Parker.
Well there's one liar there as I am parker -vote mr freeze
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