HA's 200th Tourney (Josko.ri Wins)

by **ElricTheGreat** on Sun Jul 24, 2011 10:00 pm

Game 9461393 Round 5

I am moving on to round 9 !!! Alright !!!

by **xman5151** on Sun Jul 24, 2011 10:39 pm

Congrats Elric! I am also moving on... it's amazing how this goes from 1 round to the next. Last round I was down to my 3rd game, late comeback to survive. This round I am 2-0 very easily.

by **saffronfury** on Sun Jul 24, 2011 11:57 pm

How many people moved on to rd8?

by **Qwert** on Mon Jul 25, 2011 3:57 am

I don't think so. Some more math to prove it?

scenario1:
Assumption: All players in the tourney are very skilled.
Conclusion1: The games will be mostly decided by luck.
Conclusion2: Chances to advance are 1-0,5^3= 87,5 %

scenario2:
assumption1: We have 300 players of three categories: 100 are highly skilled, 100 are average skilled and 100 are less skilled.

assumtion 2: Every player plays one game against one player of each categorie.

assumption 3: Lets assume the following win chances for the differnt types of games:
high vs high = 50:50
high vs average = 60:40
high vs low = 70:30
average vs average = 50:50
average vs low = 60:40
low vs low = 50:50

So chances for the highly skilled player to advance are: 1-0,5*0,4*0,3=94%
Chances for the average skilled player: 1- 0,6*0,5*0,4=88%
Chances for the low skilled player: 1- 0,5*0,4*0,3= 79 %

Chances on average: (79+88+94)/3 = 87%

If the skill of the players differs the average to advance are slightly lower than in scenario 1.
You can also try it with different numbers like 90:10 for the high skilled player against the low skilled player but you will always get a lower chance on average. (I did not do a proove for this but I'm quite sure that it is like that).

At the moment we are at 82 %. This might be because:
1. Player are skilled differently
2. Some people do not even join games
3. Some people go to holidays and deadbeat all there games
4. Some people do not play all three games although they lost.

So this is enough being geek for today... We will see if I'm right as the tourney continues.

knubbel

Well these can be easy adjust.
In some future rounds,Highlander can put new rule that each player have 3 chance for advance,but need to join one by one game, and if win first no more join a game.Winner in first game will move forward,and Loser will play second game.
Example:
you have 600 players
first game-300 vs 300-first game 300 winner move to 10 round
second game-150 losers vs 150 losers- 150 winner move to 10 round
third last game-75 losers vs 75 losers-75 winner move to 10 round.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So we start with 600, and 525 move to 10 round and 75 are eliminate from tournament and these is good ,because you will get constant number of elimination each round.
.
Example

by **knubbel** on Mon Jul 25, 2011 5:52 am

qwert wrote:Well these can be easy adjust.
In some future rounds,Highlander can put new rule that each player have 3 chance for advance,but need to join one by one game, and if win first no more join a game.Winner in first game will move forward,and Loser will play second game.
Example:
you have 600 players
first game-300 vs 300-first game 300 winner move to 10 round
second game-150 losers vs 150 losers- 150 winner move to 10 round
third last game-75 losers vs 75 losers-75 winner move to 10 round.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So we start with 600, and 525 move to 10 round and 75 are eliminate from tournament and these is good ,because you will get constant number of elimination each round.
.
Example

Well then we have exactly 87,5 %.

By the way. I expect HA to change the rules in some future round to make the tourney not last forever. This is more just for the fun calculating how long it would last if HA did not change the rules.

by **Pandemonium** on Mon Jul 25, 2011 6:32 am

I just got PMd about playing in round8 - but when I did the search, all I saw were 9 pages of 'RD 7 no more than 3 games'
Is there some kind of mistake? Please PM me with the answer.

by **HighlanderAttack** on Mon Jul 25, 2011 6:51 am

[b]Although the labels say round seven they are round eight games so good luck--If you got the pm with the passcode you can join your three games at any time
[/b]
I will not change the rules to this tourney as it continues to progress just fine. What I will do is probably limit the time for joining games as we progress to be closer to the rules of the tourney rather than 10-14 days. Like this one--you will have seven to ten days--I do expect ten days, but I also will take the games down at that time--I will send a warning, but if you are premium and have four slots filled a 24 or 48 hour warning is not going to help you. It is up to the participant to manage their games and join them within the time frame allotted. I will be as fair as I can be, but there are no guarantees

by **HighlanderAttack** on Mon Jul 25, 2011 6:52 am

saffronfury wrote:How many people moved on to rd8?

642

by **dazza2008** on Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:23 am

I won 3 this round. See you all in round 9

by **TheTrueNorth** on Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:24 am

round 8 win

Game 9460797

by **arno30** on Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:30 am

i'm moving on too !
game 9461365

by **krikee** on Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:56 am

I am DEFEATED ...round seven wrecked my stuff

by **go dan m** on Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:56 am

Sadly, I've been eliminated. Nonetheless, it was a fun Tournament - thanks HA!

by **Freaky1** on Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:59 am

Game 9460492
Freaky1 is going to round 9
Hope i am posting in the correct spot.

by **Greegan** on Mon Jul 25, 2011 9:03 am

I was out in round five... i think

by **jimfinn** on Mon Jul 25, 2011 9:22 am

Game 9461326

And I advance!

by **soka** on Mon Jul 25, 2011 9:34 am

game # 9460778
and i advance

by **cloudcatcher** on Mon Jul 25, 2011 9:38 am

game # 9461362
and I advance to round 9

by **drunkmonkey** on Mon Jul 25, 2011 9:38 am

Can you send a PM if you make any updates to the tourney, now that this thread is going to contain 500+ "I win" posts?

by **simhatus** on Mon Jul 25, 2011 10:15 am

Hi

Won game 9460790 advancing to round 9.

Simon

by **josko.ri** on Mon Jul 25, 2011 10:27 am

maybe you can check games from round 8 by gamenumber? round 8 games begin with 946****, and round 7 begin with 931****.

or by word "RD". in earlier rounds you wrote round x, now you wrote RD 7 in label.

btw i advanced to round 9 Game 9460741