Terminator Mafia Game Thread Mafia Win!

[00iCon]

ebwop
unvote vote blakebowling

[TA1LGUNN3R]

Well, I see how you can view it as speculation. But when you get down to it, the maybes you raised are not sufficiently strong.

"Want doc protection"?

With 2 protective roles dead? Seriously?

"Wanted to make it sure it would get done"?

If he really were the cop, the right call would have been not claiming and risking the lynch. If the lynch was not going to happen, then he could claim, wait for the town to realize there was no counterclaim, be cleared and then lead the town into switching the votes. That way, he would be making sure it would get done.

"Got excited"?

This one is my favorite.

It's a pretty weak defense and, if I were on your perspective, I'd certainly rather believe Blake is a savvy mafia than a dumb cop (because if our likely only cop is dumb, the town is lost anyway; if blake is mafia, then at least there is hope that our true cop is a cautious guy that has the brains to actually lead the town into winning - cop qualities Blake already showed he hasn't).

Sorry, perhaps you misinterpreted that part of my post; I was offering reasons that were comparable in validity to your earlier justifications. I don't actually endorse them, merely that you can't know at this point why blakebowling chose to claim.

As to whether blakebowling is faking the cop claim: the only players who have seemed to doubt its veracity are you and 00icon. I would expect that even if the "true" cop didn't counter-claim at this juncture in the game, what with a protection role unlikely and only D2, that s/he still throw their weight behind you in debunking this claim.

Regarding your crazy conspiracy theory: That sort of gambit rarely works. In fact I would have to assume that they (mafia) would have to be allowed day-talk abilities because they had to choose a target, which just happened to be another protection role (which they wouldn't know until the day-break scene), and then decide to fake claim the cop in full knowledge that they may be counter-claimed by the real one (if the situation were so dire as you would have us believe). This also means they had to have been "well, if shield is a protection role, claim cop because it's unlikely there's another, and the real cop won't counter-claim, and he won't have any protection, that way we can convince them to lynch a townie, meanwhile we will sacrifice you the next day, but that's okay we'll be 4-2."

Methinks they should be playing chess.

(except maybe the likelihood of an insane cop due to theme)

Please justify how putting 1 cop (insane) in a 12 player game is at all likely. The theme is almost irrelevant.

-Tails

[Rodion]

Regarding your crazy conspiracy theory: That sort of gambit rarely works. In fact I would have to assume that they (mafia) would have to be allowed day-talk abilities because they had to choose a target, which just happened to be another protection role (which they wouldn't know until the day-break scene), and then decide to fake claim the cop in full knowledge that they may be counter-claimed by the real one (if the situation were so dire as you would have us believe). This also means they had to have been "well, if shield is a protection role, claim cop because it's unlikely there's another, and the real cop won't counter-claim, as he won't have any protection, that way we can convince them to lynch a townie, meanwhile we will sacrifice you the next day, but that's okay we'll be 4-2."

Methinks they should be playing chess.

Edited your paragraph subbing "and he won't have any protection for "as he won't have any protection" (I think that is how it makes sense - let me know if I misinterpreted again).

So, your argument now is the players in Blake's mafia are not smart enough to plan things like that? Really? Because they had 48 hours to consider:
a) protection role dies
b) investigative role dies
c) nobody dies
d) miscellaneous, either with a different town role dying or multiple deaths or 1 death but someone else other than their target (meaning there could be doctor protecting their target + vigilante killing the one who died OR a bus driver swapping the target with the one who died) or other "weird" scenarios

It's pretty hard to cover "d", as it includes endless possibilities, but I think 48 hours is good enough to get "a", "b" and "c" pretty well covered.

The fact that it only takes a prudent analysis of 3 "what ifs" when discussing in night 1 how to approach day 2 makes me think the red part in your post is perfectly conceivable. Moreover, it is also possible that they indeed didn't think ahead and Blake came up with it on his own after Shield flipped protective (Blake took more than 4 hours to post, more than enough to consider that the likely lack of another protective role could allow him to roleclaim and as a result either get a townie lynched or see the real cop counterclaim just to get killed on N2 - win/win for the mafia).

Sorry, Tail, but you don't need to be a chess player to think things through.

I also see you're preemptively building a case against 00iCon for pretty much saying it was likely the cop's sanity to be impaired. Naxus also did that. No case against him? Why the two weights and two measures?

FOS Tail

[safariguy5]

Announcement

MeDeFe, VioIet, and jeraado prodded.

[safariguy5]

Vote Count

Rodion(3)- blake, freezie, tails
blake(3)- Rodion, naxus, icon

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

[TA1LGUNN3R]

So, your argument now is the players in Blake's mafia are not smart enough to plan things like that? Really? Because they had 48 hours to consider:
a) protection role dies
b) investigative role dies
c) nobody dies
d) miscellaneous, either with a different town role dying or multiple deaths or 1 death but someone else other than their target (meaning there could be doctor protecting their target + vigilante killing the one who died OR a bus driver swapping the target with the one who died) or other "weird" scenarios

It's pretty hard to cover "d", as it includes endless possibilities, but I think 48 hours is good enough to get "a", "b" and "c" pretty well covered.

The fact that it only takes a prudent analysis of 3 "what ifs" when discussing in night 1 how to approach day 2 makes me think the red part in your post is perfectly conceivable. Moreover, it is also possible that they indeed didn't think ahead and Blake came up with it on his own after Shield flipped protective (Blake took more than 4 hours to post, more than enough to consider that the likely lack of another protective role could allow him to roleclaim and as a result either get a townie lynched or see the real cop counterclaim just to get killed on N2 - win/win for the mafia).

Okay I'm almost convinced to unvote you because it seems like you've never played as mafia, and seeing how this is one of your first games...

Let me elaborate. True, they had 48 hours, but in reality it's a lot less than that. You must factor in rl issues like work, school, etc. So the window of getting in the thread, reading through, and finding likely NK targets means you can't set up a lot of conditionals like "if we get the protection or investigative role, do this". When you're scum, especially in the early nights, you have to target someone who isn't likely to protected or watched, so you have to read through and pick very carefully (at least that's how I've always played as scum--usually works out pretty well).

Not to mention you have to collaborate with your scummates, who aren't always logged on at the same time you are. The pms generally come down to "who do you think we should kill?" and "who should we try and pressure tomorrow?"

I'm not saying they aren't smart enough to plan that far ahead, I'm saying it's unlikely because 48 hours isn't a lot of time (at least for me). I work full time and go to school, and I imagine others have a similar schedule. The time frame that I can actually devote to reading through the game threads (and when I'm scum trying to kill the best target) is very little. I usually only get to log-in twice a day, and not for long periods.

And I think that shield was targeted proves my point. He didn't draw a lot of attention yesterday, and wasn't one of the main suspects/heroes. In fact, for pure meta reasons, I think I would have a pretty good guess as to who would have targeted him.

I also see you're preemptively building a case against 00iCon for pretty much saying it was likely the cop's sanity to be impaired. Naxus also did that. No case against him? Why the two weights and two measures?

I am seeing a player defend another player definitely, when one of the players has been outed as scum. The only way you can know if someone is innocent is if you're scum. Whether you (Rodion) are innocent or scum is irrelevant to my thoughts on 00icon. Some scum will defend a scummate, others will defend a townie who is under threat of a lynch to earn themselves brownie points.

-Tails

[freezie]

I would expect that even if the "true" cop didn't counter-claim at this juncture in the game, what with a protection role unlikely and only D2, that s/he still throw their weight behind you in debunking this claim.

THIS. If the 'real' cop is half smart, he will know that a fake-claim cop would mean high danger for the town at this point of the game. Even without protection, he NEEDS to counter claim, clear someone with his night investigation and lynch the fakeclaimer. As you can tell, it hasn't happened yet. That makes me 99% sure that Blake is the real cop, Rodion is scum and that Icon is beeing overly protective of Rodion.

Rodion, I haven't been skimming. Your posts are full of bullcrap. If I had found even something to answer to you, I would have. My vote stays on you. And also on your scumate

FoS: Icon

[naxus]

I would expect that even if the "true" cop didn't counter-claim at this juncture in the game, what with a protection role unlikely and only D2, that s/he still throw their weight behind you in debunking this claim.

THIS. If the 'real' cop is half smart, he will know that a fake-claim cop would mean high danger for the town at this point of the game. Even without protection, he NEEDS to counter claim, clear someone with his night investigation and lynch the fakeclaimer. As you can tell, it hasn't happened yet. That makes me 99% sure that Blake is the real cop, Rodion is scum and that Icon is beeing overly protective of Rodion.

Rodion, I haven't been skimming. Your posts are full of bullcrap. If I had found even something to answer to you, I would have. My vote stays on you. And also on your scumate

FoS: Icon

But the cop has to think of endgame scenario, Say blake is faking being the cop and the real cop comes out of nowhere. We lynch blake and then mafia NK the real cop. Then town would have lost two protective roles and its only investigative role. Thats not good numbers for town. The cop has a lose lose situation. Stay quiet and watch Rodion(Town in my opinion) get lynched or he can claim have blake lynched(Fake cop in my opinon) and then get himself NK. Either way, town is losing numbers when they dont have numbers to lose.

[00iCon]

(except maybe the likelihood of an insane cop due to theme)

Please justify how putting 1 cop (insane) in a 12 player game is at all likely. The theme is almost irrelevant.

-Tails

As soon as town would find out he's insane, the inverse of his results would be considered as true. It'd be balanced for an observant town.

[freezie]

But the cop has to think of endgame scenario, Say blake is faking being the cop and the real cop comes out of nowhere. We lynch blake and then mafia NK the real cop. Then town would have lost two protective roles and its only investigative role. Thats not good numbers for town. The cop has a lose lose situation. Stay quiet and watch Rodion(Town in my opinion) get lynched or he can claim have blake lynched(Fake cop in my opinon) and then get himself NK. Either way, town is losing numbers when they dont have numbers to lose.

Or we can lynch Rodion ( Scum in my oppinion ) maybe get blake NK'ed then Lynch Icon ( Scummate in my oppinion ) and be at a MUCH closer chance to win.

Blake is the cop. Rodion is scum. Some people are really, really slow..

[Rodion]

Tail, this is my first game (Team CC being the second, still on D1). Good point that 3-4 mafia (possibly living in different time zones) could have problems organizing a "great plot" in 48 hours. Well, sort of, as part of N1 was saturday, a day with no school and limited work (at least where I live, Brazil). I don't think 3 conditionals (proctetive dead, investigative dead, no deaths) is really something big and unmanageable, but you probably know better (I'm not agreeing with you here, just acknowledging the validity of your explanation). That does not exclude the other possibility I mentioned, though, that Blake read safari's post, saw he flipped protective and then made his decision alone. Checking timestamps, he had about 4 hours for that, so it's perfectly conceivable.

Also, you said that you had a good guess on which mafia decided to kill Shield? Do you have a good reason not to share such valuable knowledge with us? The fact that you got it fore pure meta reasons means you are not forced to roleclaim to prove your point, so it sounds like you're not risking yourself by putting this card on the table.

Regarding 00iCon, your case against him does not seem strong. You FOS him because he is defending me "definitely"? Well, freezie quickly jumped to the conclusion that he trusted Blake completely, so why doesn't that definitive defense warrant a FOS as well?

Your posts are full of bullcrap. If I had found even something to answer to you, I would have.

Freezie, I don't quite get what you mean here. If they are full of bullcrap, it should be extremely easy to find weaknesses on my arguments and shattering them? Why can't you find anything to answer to me, then?

Also, Freezie, regarding the cop claiming now, naxus did a pretty good job of answering you (which was exactly what I was talking to Tail about a few posts ago). I suggest you to calm down, read it and realize how scummy your blind pro-Blake/anti-Rodion attitude is sounding.

Fastposted by freezie: seems you read it and didn't budge an inch. That's good actually, I think I'm now almost sure of who is mafia #2.

[freezie]

Freezie, I don't quite get what you mean here. If they are full of bullcrap, it should be extremely easy to find weaknesses on my arguments and shattering them? Why can't you find anything to answer to me, then?

You want me to answer? Very well. It's midnight here, I got work tomorow. When I come back from work, I'll read and shatter all of your arguments one by one, exactly like tail already did, repeating his exact oppinions. Just because you asked. Consider yourself lucky that I actually grant one of Mafia's wish. Tell your scumates it's the last, too.

Goodnight for now. Till tomorow

[Rodion]

Freezie, I don't quite get what you mean here. If they are full of bullcrap, it should be extremely easy to find weaknesses on my arguments and shattering them? Why can't you find anything to answer to me, then?

You want me to answer? Very well. It's midnight here, I got work tomorow. When I come back from work, I'll read and shatter all of your arguments one by one, exactly like tail already did, repeating his exact oppinions. Just because you asked. Consider yourself lucky that I actually grant one of Mafia's wish. Tell your scumates it's the last, too.

Goodnight for now. Till tomorow

Just try not to make all that fake passion/fire you've been displaying since the start of D2 make you look more scummy then you already do!

I was going to say it kind of defeats the purpose of answering when you propose yourself to simply repeat Tail's opinions. However, your bloodlust will be your downfall. It has already happened here, where you tried to agree with Tail without really understanding what was going on.

["quote=Tail"]I would expect that even if the "true" cop didn't counter-claim at this juncture in the game, what with a protection role unlikely and only D2, that s/he still throw their weight behind you in debunking this claim.

THIS. If the 'real' cop is half smart, he will know that a fake-claim cop would mean high danger for the town at this point of the game. Even without protection, he NEEDS to counter claim, clear someone with his night investigation and lynch the fakeclaimer. As you can tell, it hasn't happened yet. That makes me 99% sure that Blake is the real cop, Rodion is scum and that Icon is beeing overly protective of Rodion. [/quote]

You see, Tail was talking about the cop not counter-claiming but somehow defending me while keeping his role low profile.
And neither Tail nor you, Freezie, can be sure that that is not the case. First, because naxus and 00iCon are indeed showing not to be convinced by Blake's claim. Our cop may be one of them. Second, because we have 3 inactives here that can potentially be the cop (Violet, Medefe and Jeraado) and you can't say that them "not helping me debunk the claim" makes me look scummy when they are not even here! Third, I might be the cop (meaning I'm trying to fight a known scum without claiming for the very reasons I already stated - not getting a certain NK on night 2 - Tail himself agreed that it wouldn't be smart to reveal cop position unless necessary). I'll now go ahead and say I'm not the cop, but you couldn't logically rule that possibility before my confession.

Now, freezie, back to the gem you just gifted the town. As I was saying, Tail was talking about the cop not counter-claiming but somehow defending me while keeping his role low profile. You agreed with Tail ("THIS") and then followed by saying the cop "NEEDS to counter claim". So, did you really "agree" with Tail? For me that was a pretty poor attempt at "building numbers" to get me lynched and get closer to the mafia win.

Anyway, you said you'll shatter my arguments tomorrow. Ball's on your court, don't try submarining now. I'll be looking forward to capitalizing on your future flaws and showing who the second mafia is (without even needing to waste the cop's N2 action). Enjoy N2 as much as you can, Freezie, as you'll be lynched D3.

[TA1LGUNN3R]

As soon as town would find out he's insane, the inverse of his results would be considered as true. It'd be balanced for an observant town.

That's assuming he's paranoid and not insane.

Also, you said that you had a good guess on which mafia decided to kill Shield? Do you have a good reason not to share such valuable knowledge with us?

Yes. Yes. It's not game-play related (well it shouldn't be...).

Regarding 00iCon, your case against him does not seem strong.

You assert that it's not strong because it would have implications for your own character.

Well, freezie quickly jumped to the conclusion that he trusted Blake completely, so why doesn't that definitive defense warrant a FOS as well?

Because scum almost never false-claim the cop D2.

Anyway, barring some revelatory info from freezie, I think we'll just keep running around in circles with the same argument. Hopefully others will post.

-Tails

[Rodion]

Also, you said that you had a good guess on which mafia decided to kill Shield? Do you have a good reason not to share such valuable knowledge with us?

Can you please elaborate a little more? Perhaps you mean using meta reasons is against the spirit of the game? Is that it?

[TA1LGUNN3R]

Now I regret saying that...

It's not so much meta as... how much I know about stuff. Anyway, it's not something I can talk about. Personal info, if you will.

-Tails

[Rodion]

Cool. First it was "pure meta reasons". Then when I asked you to share the information to help the town find another scum (and said that being it a meta reason you were not forced to reveal roles/powers/flavors/whatever) it suddendly became "not so much meta as... how much I know about stuff".

This is getting fishier by the hour.

You now join Blake and Freezie on Rodion's list of extremely suspicious people.

I'm now considering it an 8-4 (now 6-4 and MYLO) distribution, as I don't see mafia jumping the gun on me so blatantly in a 9-3 scenario (now 7-3). Mafia is: Blake, Freezie, Tail + 1 one of the inactives (Violet or Medefe or Jeraado - with a small chance that naxus is the 4th mafia and those 3 inactives are all clear).

AoG and 00iCon are town.

[VioIet]

I've just been prodded from the mod. I thought the day just started yesterday, but I see there are several posts I must catch up on. Please give me some time to read through and make a decent post. If i made a post now- it would simply be one of forced activity- and I want to offer more than that.

[jeraado]

Hmmm, Rodion, I think you've done a fantastic job of switching suspicion, but the reality is that a day 2 claim from a cop is one of those scenarios where all you can do is play the odds, and despite the points you've made, there just isn't enough in my opinion to prove blake untrustworthy. I think its ultimately going to require a claim.

However this quote just cant stand on its own:

Now I regret saying that...

It's not so much meta as... how much I know about stuff. Anyway, it's not something I can talk about. Personal info, if you will.

-Tails

Sorry tails, but now that you've said it, you'll need to at least give a bit more of an explanation as to why you cant reveal what you know. If you are town and you truly have solid information about who is scum, then you should reveal it. Of course if the information can't be revealed (i.e. its against the rules) then your ability to continue in the game suggests you are scum

[00iCon]

Or we can lynch Rodion ( Scum in my oppinion ) maybe get blake NK'ed then Lynch Icon ( Scummate in my oppinion ) and be at a MUCH closer chance to win.

Blake is the cop. Rodion is scum. Some people are really, really slow..

OR we could lynch blake and it ends up he is scum, rodion is town, and everyone on the rodion wagon is also scum... some people are just really gullible.

TBH I think we just need a flip from either. If the inactives start to join the Rodion wagon, I'd be willing to hammer. I want to hear what all 3 have to say on this topic.

As soon as town would find out he's insane, the inverse of his results would be considered as true. It'd be balanced for an observant town.

That's assuming he's paranoid and not insane.

From what I remember and just double checked, paranoid always gets guilty results; insane gets the inverse of the alignment.

Because scum almost never false-claim the cop D2.

And do town cops claim cop in day 2 (when they're not forced)?

AoG and 00iCon are town.

I hope this isn't purely based on me currently agreeing with you. Personally I tend to become more suspicious of anyone agreeing with me.

[Rodion]

It isn't. Otherwise, I'd also have naxus listed as town, while I said there is a small possibility that he is also scum.

I'll explain (and, damn it, roleclaim) upon formal request of 2 people other then Blake, Freezie and Tail (as I'm not allowing mafia to win by dictating my moves).

I plan, however, on waiting on Tail's next post before I have any explaining to do regarding 00iCon's clearance, but I suppose you can already make the requests, if you so desire.

[blakebowling]

Just curious, but would you be more pissed if: You allowed Rodion to lynch the Cop D2, after he lynched one of the protective roles D1, OR if you lynched who the 'cop' told you to, and found out the next day that he was mafia?

The decision (even if I didn't know that I was the cop) is still obvious to me.

[Rodion]

I can play the "hindsight" game too, Blake.

Which scenario would you prefer?

1 - Blake being the real cop, getting a mafia lynched (Rodion) at the cost of his (Blake's) life on N2?
2 - Blake being the fake cop, getting a mafia lynched (Blake) without the cop claiming and thus not posing as a sitting duck?

The decision (even if I didn't know that I am town) is obvious to me, as scenario 1 shows a tough D3 for the town, while scenario 2 gives the town a decent hope.

[blakebowling]

I can play the "hindsight" game too, Blake.

Which scenario would you prefer?

1 - Blake being the real cop, getting a mafia lynched (Rodion) at the cost of his (Blake's) life on N2?
2 - Blake being the fake cop, getting a mafia lynched (Blake) without the cop claiming and thus not posing as a sitting duck?

The decision (even if I didn't know that I am town) is obvious to me, as scenario 1 shows a tough D3 for the town, while scenario 2 gives the town a decent hope.

You just posted the exact same thing as me, except you made it sound condescending....

[Rodion]

Not really.

The logical structure is the same, but the content is really different.

You played the "what would make the town more furious if you later realized you misjudged" card. That was an emotional argument as you're appealing to people's hearts.

I countered with the "what would make the town more likely to win if you realize that you made the correct judgement" card. That was a rational argument as I'm appealing to people's brains.

You're now trying to use emotions to cloud the town's judgement. It is funny how several of your posts here incur in examples of logical fallacies (creating a straw man, appealing to emotions).

I wouldn't be surprised at all if you next used your mod status to "prove" that you can only speak the truth.

By the way, on an unrelated note, congratulations on becoming a tech mod.