Flaw in computing randomness

[captainwalrus]

Even if there are streaks, it is still random. No matter what you roll, the next roll has the same odds of being any given number as the roll before, so it is random.

[AAFitz]

It's like yesterday...
i caught every RED light...
some days it's all GREEN...
but usually it's 6 of one, half dozen of the other... lol...

And this is the other problem with analyzing the dice. Because you hate stopping at the reds, its probable that you count the red lights more than the greens and certainly remember them more. If you actually got 3 green, and 3 red youd still be annoyed, even though statistically, thats what you might expect. Youd call that bad luck because you got 3 red lights and say you were having a bad day. Its just human nature.

And I dont mean you here obviously... I mean all of us.

[Robinette]

It's like yesterday...
i caught every RED light...
some days it's all GREEN...
but usually it's 6 of one, half dozen of the other... lol...

And this is the other problem with analyzing the dice. Because you hate stopping at the reds, its probable that you count the red lights more than the greens and certainly remember them more. If you actually got 3 green, and 3 red youd still be annoyed, even though statistically, thats what you might expect. Youd call that bad luck because you got 3 red lights and say you were having a bad day. Its just human nature.

And I dont mean you here obviously... I mean all of us.

Yesterday, my route had 6 stop signs...
And DAMN IT... they were all RED...
so i had to stop at EVERY ONE, not a single one was green..

maybe this explains CC dice in an odd silly sort of way...

[Mr Changsha]

So the OP is saying that randomness is only true over a large sample, but inaccurate for a small sample? He's saying that's why good players adopt strategies to deal with that? He's saying that sometimes the dice aren't dead on their predicted outcome, but that they even out?

Well I never, I'm gonna have to rethink this whole concept of randomness...

wait---- What?......
sooooo, does this mean we should actually adjust our strategy to anticipate that we will LOSE men when rolling...

i think i get it now...

With 3 rolls, in the LONG RUN the stats say i'll win... win 2, win 1, win 0

But if we look at this the other way --- the rolls actually look like this.... lose 2, lose 1, and lose 0

So with 6 v 2 you lose the 1st roll (lose 2), now it's 4 v2...
2nd roll at 4 v 2 and i'll anticipate that i lose 1, now it's 3 v 1
uh oh... 2 dice vs 1... i'm screwed... MAYBE if i go down to 1 i'll likely get it, but ouch...

So the above 6 v 2 odds are supposed to be 89%, and if i take the pain of going down to 1 it will likely happen just like that...

I really think what we are missing here, is that with an 89% chance of victory, we expect to win handily...
but look again at that 3v1 position after the 2nd roll... which is precisely within the odds... yet very disheartening!


It's like yesterday...
i caught every RED light...
some days it's all GREEN...
but usually it's 6 of one, half dozen of the other... lol...


so try this little exercise...
it only takes 2 rolls to completely win, or lose... and yet................

(Mr C's head explodes...)

Luckily, you don't need to be a whizz bang maths genius (or even vaguely numerate for that matter) to play this game well, what you need is strategic sense...

Whether a player views that through a mathematical or psychological prism (as I prefer to) doesn't really matter..in the end if you truly understand the game, the dice are merely your weapon.

With regards to 5 on 1 or even 6 on 1..one certainly expects it to go through, but here is a little tester for you all.

You have to take out 3 groups of troops to win a game.

Group A: You have a single 1 to fight off, but must take out 1 territory with a single and another territory with a 2.
Group B: You have a 10 to fight off (again just one stack) and have to remove 12 armies seperated over four territories in a 3,3,3,3 formation.
Group C: You have two stacks, both with a 3. You have to remove a single stack 7.

You have a 7 to deploy..what's the optimum deployment?

[nippersean]

Using the battle odds calculator....and understanding your question

[Hoots]

You have to take out 3 groups of troops to win a game.

Group A: You have a single 1 to fight off, but must take out 1 territory with a single and another territory with a 2.
Group B: You have a 10 to fight off (again just one stack) and have to remove 12 armies seperated over four territories in a 3,3,3,3 formation.
Group C: You have two stacks, both with a 3. You have to remove a single stack 7.

You have a 7 to deploy..what's the optimum deployment?

Can you clear this up please.
Group A is 1+7= 7 attackers vs 1,2?
Group B is 10+7=16 attackers vs 3,3,3,3?
Group c is 3 (2 attackers), 3 (2 attackers) + 7 deploy vs 7?

Is this correct?

oh , edit. or are you saying you get 7 total deploy to try and kill the 3 groups. (A-1,2) (B-3,3,3,3) (C-7)
If this is the case the attacker a pretty big dawg...

[Mr Changsha]

You have to take out 3 groups of troops to win a game.

Group A: You have a single 1 to fight off, but must take out 1 territory with a single and another territory with a 2.
Group B: You have a 10 to fight off (again just one stack) and have to remove 12 armies seperated over four territories in a 3,3,3,3 formation.
Group C: You have two stacks, both with a 3. You have to remove a single stack 7.

You have a 7 to deploy..what's the optimum deployment?

Can you clear this up please.
Group A is 1+7= 7 attackers vs 1,2?
Group B is 10+7=16 attackers vs 3,3,3,3
Group c is 3 (2 attackers), 3 (2 attackers) + 7 deploy vs 7

Is this correct?

Umm...no!

Group A is 1 va 1,2
Group B is 10 vs ,3,3,3,3.
Group C is 3 and 3 vs 7.

You have 7 to deploy TOTAL.

I'd deploy 4 on group A, ignore B entirely and stick 3 on to one of the 3 stacks =

Group A 5 vs 1,2.
Group B 10 vs 3,3,3,3
Group C 3 and 6 vs 7.

[AndyDufresne]

Numbers, probabilities, randomness vs not---it's always been mostly over my head, ever since I progressed past factor trees in grade school.

But I still enjoy trying to figure out what everyone is figuring out in these dice topics...


--Andy

[Mr Changsha]

Numbers, probabilities, randomness vs not---it's always been mostly over my head, ever since I progressed past factor trees in grade school.

But I still enjoy trying to figure out what everyone is figuring out in these dice topics...


--Andy

With you on that..

This kind of stuff isn't too key for the kinds of games I play and I suspect my way is far from optimum..interested to see if there is an agreed best way though. I've noticed these numbers chaps can't even agree on the probabilities involving 3 vs 2 half the time...

[Fruitcake]

I've noticed these numbers chaps can't even agree on the probabilities involving 3 vs 2 half the time...

Spoken like a true cc Aristo. The hint of the dismissive allied to the inherent 'trade' aspect of anyone who has actually learnt things like numbers....after all a true Aristo has so much of everything they really have no need to consider such bagatelles of life.

[Robinette]

You have to take out 3 groups of troops to win a game.

Group A: You have a single 1 to fight off, but must take out 1 territory with a single and another territory with a 2.
Group B: You have a 10 to fight off (again just one stack) and have to remove 12 armies seperated over four territories in a 3,3,3,3 formation.
Group C: You have two stacks, both with a 3. You have to remove a single stack 7.

You have a 7 to deploy..what's the optimum deployment?

Can you clear this up please.
Group A is 1+7= 7 attackers vs 1,2?
Group B is 10+7=16 attackers vs 3,3,3,3
Group c is 3 (2 attackers), 3 (2 attackers) + 7 deploy vs 7

Is this correct?

Umm...no!

Group A is 1 va 1,2
Group B is 10 vs ,3,3,3,3.
Group C is 3 and 3 vs 7.

You have 7 to deploy TOTAL.

I'd deploy 4 on group A, ignore B entirely and stick 3 on to one of the 3 stacks =

Group A 5 vs 1,2.
Group B 10 vs 3,3,3,3
Group C 3 and 6 vs 7.

Well there are only 2 changes to note...

I would make group C 4 and 5 vs 7

And the 2nd thing...
when you LOSE, and you WILL... you need to quickly start a thread about the flaw in the dice...
And always remember to blame the dice... it's NEVER flawed tactics or strategy...