Statistics

Players
Team1
r:Foxglove	4.9	2	10	29	3
g:rabbiton	4.7	4	55	158	40
Team2
b:Chuuuuck	4.8	0	0	0	0
y:dwilhelmi	4.9	0	0	0	0
Team3
p:Master Fenrir	4.9	0	0	0	0
c:danryan	4.7	0	0	0	0

Game #7990747: 6 Players, Doubles, Escalating, Sequential, Chained

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2010-11-18 15:59:03 - Game has been initialized
2010-12-28 16:57:15 - Master Fenrir eliminated Chuuuuck from the game
2010-12-29 06:48:46 - rabbiton eliminated Master Fenrir from the game
2010-12-29 06:55:18 - rabbiton eliminated danryan from the game
2010-12-29 07:06:03 - rabbiton eliminated dwilhelmi from the game
2010-12-29 07:06:03 - Foxglove, rabbiton won the game
2010-12-29 07:06:03 - Chuuuuck lost 13 points
2010-12-29 07:06:03 - dwilhelmi lost 13 points
2010-12-29 07:06:03 - Master Fenrir lost 16 points
2010-12-29 07:06:03 - danryan lost 16 points
2010-12-29 07:06:03 - Foxglove gained 29 points
2010-12-29 07:06:03 - rabbiton gained 29 points

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2010-12-28 16:58:30 - Master Fenrir: Good game, Chuck.
2010-12-28 17:39:31 - Chuuuuck: Hey Fen, I hope you know I have the utmost respect for your play and am just trying to start a friendly discussion here about your thought process but I am a little confused by that turn
2010-12-28 17:40:56 - Chuuuuck: We went over all the possible outcomes on our turn of what we thought might happena nd we thought you might try to kill me without cashing and then run the board, but never thought you would cash and then kill me because it increases any potential cashes
2010-12-28 17:41:36 - Chuuuuck: from green or yellow which in turn increases the odds one of them can take ourt your partner and run the board
2010-12-28 17:42:02 - Chuuuuck: Was the thought that your best chance to win was hoping both of them have two pair?
2010-12-28 18:06:56 - rabbiton: i would have expected him to go for a double elim
2010-12-28 18:39:58 - Chuuuuck: Well yes, we talked about that as one of the best possibilities, to take both me and rabbiton out if he cashed, but thought that was our best chance since he only had a 1/3 chance of having a set and still the double elimination was going to be tough
2010-12-28 18:42:36 - Chuuuuck: Or to take me out as well as his own teammate.... which may of been what his plan was and his dice just didn't agree, I am just trying to understand.
2010-12-28 21:14:50 - Master Fenrir: To be honest, my move was based entirely on the fact that my dice analyser shows me as having 23% dice over the past two weeks.
2010-12-28 21:15:21 - Master Fenrir: I didn't trust I'd be able to kill you without cashing, so I decided to play it safe.
2010-12-28 21:17:25 - Master Fenrir: That, and I don't think that anybody will be able to take Dan out, even with cashes.
2010-12-28 21:26:42 - Chuuuuck: Gotcha, I hope you don't take me asking as offensive, I didn't mean it that way at all, I just wanted to see what your thoughts were on the move and if you thought it gave you all a better chance at winning the game that I hadn't thought of already
2010-12-28 21:27:27 - Chuuuuck: I still see potential for it to work out in your favor if someone tries to get dan and fails or if they don't have sets, should be interesting to see how it goes
2010-12-28 21:39:57 - Master Fenrir: Haha, I didn't take offense at all.
2010-12-28 21:41:16 - Master Fenrir: Your 10 at Bir Temrad cost me 14 troops if I remember correctly, so I would not have been able to kill you without cashing. Even if I would have dropped my 3 there, the 13 vs. 10 would have failed had the dice outcomes stayed the same.
2010-12-28 21:46:18 - Chuuuuck: Yes, our guess was that you would try and the two toughest attacks would be 13 vs 10 and 6 vs 3. I thought you might try those first and if you failed then just stop and if you succeeded then go on
2010-12-28 21:55:36 - rabbiton: if you are seriously basing moves on past dice then you are beyond redemption.
2010-12-28 21:57:21 - rabbiton: you must have astonishing strategic mastery, or some other type of trickery, to be able to maintain your rank while operating under the cloud of such fallacious notions. you needed to try for a double elim.
2010-12-28 22:07:10 - Master Fenrir: Neither. I eat crayons and paint chips. My points are all the result of fantastic luck.
2010-12-28 22:08:22 - Master Fenrir: I needed to try for a double elimination if I wanted to win last round.
2010-12-28 22:09:40 - Master Fenrir: I was willing to play it safe because I don't think that you or dwilhelmi have a killshot unless one of you is willing to noob to let the other win. I don't expect either of you to play like that, which is why I was willing to play it safe and wait.
2010-12-28 22:27:57 - rabbiton: but i've had such fantastic dice lately that i feel i should go for it.... so that'd be ok right? did you check on my recent dice?
2010-12-28 22:30:52 - rabbiton: also, i'm not sure planting the noob seed is really sufficient at this point. clearly if i have a set, i have a decent shot,given our overall position. suggesting otherwise is downright noobish. do you know the odds?
2010-12-28 22:32:01 - rabbiton: sory for not being as polite as chuck, but i think we're saying the same thing.... i wouldnt have commented but for your absurd notion of taking into account past dice
2010-12-28 22:35:52 - Master Fenrir: No need to be sorry for being impolite. I am 100% okay with you and/or Chuck thinking I'm a complete fucking idiot. Wouldn't bother me in the least.
2010-12-28 22:36:27 - Master Fenrir: But you did see my earlier comment, correct?
2010-12-28 22:36:32 - Master Fenrir: "Even if I would have dropped my 3 there, the 13 vs. 10 would have failed had the dice outcomes stayed the same."
2010-12-28 22:37:17 - Master Fenrir: The double-elimination would have failed and the odds that I would win this game would be significantly less than they are now.
2010-12-28 22:43:40 - Chuuuuck: Didn't mean for this to get this heated, I think it is obvious to all what is going on now so I don't think any "strategy" would be given away by opening up discussion. I was just curious the thought process of others. As far as "noobing" it goes....
2010-12-28 22:44:58 - Chuuuuck: I am not sure it would be noobing it for either team to try. I show Rabbiton at having a 34% chance if he has a set. Of course if he tries and fails then we will surely win this game as long as dwilhelmi has a set or can finish the kill easily without
2010-12-28 22:45:15 - Chuuuuck: cashing (which is likely considering where the last attacks will have to be)
2010-12-28 22:50:00 - Chuuuuck: I definitely wouldn't consider it noobing it for dwilhelmi to try if Rabbiton does nothing, if his path doesn't change I show his odds would come to about 70% to kill teal and in turn surely running the board, those odds increase if green cashes and does
2010-12-28 22:51:16 - Chuuuuck: nothing, if green can't cash then it makes green an obvious target for him as well. Givin
2010-12-28 22:51:56 - Chuuuuck: I guess it all balances on who has sets and if you want to take the 1/3 shot that certain opponents don't have sets
2010-12-29 00:24:03 - rabbiton: "Even if I would have dropped my 3 there, the 13 vs. 10 would have failed had the dice outcomes stayed the same." - this rationale makes sense if your strategy is predicated on assumptions about what future dice will be.
2010-12-29 00:25:17 - rabbiton: when you know the outcome the correct move is always obvious... a point which is utterly irrelevant to decision making.... or at least it should be
2010-12-29 00:26:08 - rabbiton: and chuck i'm not sure which atacks you are choosing for me but i get better odds than 34%
2010-12-29 00:26:48 - rabbiton: and given our current position even 34% would be worth a (careful) shot
2010-12-29 00:27:21 - rabbiton: so the preemptive "noob" attack is noobishly lame in my view
2010-12-29 00:30:44 - rabbiton: also i'll be honest in saying that i think you (chuck) over-attacked on your move, and i think MF should have at least set himself up for a double elim.... however neither move was worthy of derision specifically....
2010-12-29 00:30:59 - rabbiton: it is really just this "i plan my move by what i think my dice will be" business that irks me
2010-12-29 00:32:26 - Chuuuuck: I have crunched every option I can come up with and still see 34% pretty much the best, maybe we can discuss after your turn as to what you are seeing better. Here, I will add a snapshot
2010-12-29 07:08:33 - rabbiton: odds were about 45% from my calc.... i had a +2 you didnt know about, and other than that the important thing was to use my small stacks optimally... i.e. position them so they got to attack 3 or 2 v1
2010-12-29 07:09:39 - rabbiton: with fully optimal attacks the odds were over 50%
2010-12-29 07:10:21 - rabbiton: obviously had some luck, with that attack and the double set
2010-12-29 07:10:59 - rabbiton: my first game of this type (>4 players dubs), so it was interesting, but i guess pretty boring until this last round
2010-12-29 07:11:46 - rabbiton: not sure when i'll play another cc game so cheers all and thx for the run around
2010-12-29 09:23:56 - Master Fenrir: Good game.
2010-12-29 13:26:41 - Chuuuuck: ya, the +2 would add some small %, i factored in using all of your stacks, but using the 9 stack was the trickiest because it blocked your route for your other stack to finish the job if it failed, anyway, you did it, great job
2010-12-29 13:26:46 - Chuuuuck: gg

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