Blackpool Manor Dinner: (N2)

[hjelp]

Someone take their f'ing vote off dev for now!

Annie why did you choose dev to investigate?
Why not hjelp - suss all way through d1?
Why not rag- best player best recruit?

Are you only saying dev because under sus from bunny

You are collecting more argumetns for you to be Circle since why don't you asked annieh why she didn't choose to investigate you as well.
I think anmoeh is the Archivist so my vote on Devante stays.

[Loose Canon]

Well of course it does hjelp

[annieh]

Yes I did say why not hjelp.

As if there is even agreement that hjelp would have been a better call. I maintain it is better to investigate someone who is difficult to read. That the minor heat on Devante would mean me having to weigh in today. That it is good and fine to rely on instincts of other players who seem house in the absence of my own strong hunches.

Meanwhile, Devante, "Bunny is full of shit and so is Annie."

[annieh]

Meanwhile, no archivist counter claim.

[Loose Canon]

No because the allegation is there is a 58% chance that archivist was recruited day0 or night1

[Loose Canon]

I am travelling for a tournament right now and should be back home late tomorrow or Sunday. I don't really have the time before heading out to the bush but I'll make sure I can look all this over and address Annieh's bullshit nonsense before I head out to hunting camp Sunday night

Where is bunny full of dog poop in the above annie?

Keep digging a hole, im not 100% you are deceiving as circle, but right now i am tunnelling into the hole you are digging dear annie

[annieh]

I'm not doing math. Can you, or whoever, just check and tell me you didn't do the classic Monty Hall screw up?

They have 2 shots to find 1/11. I don't think that's 58%.

The odds don't move because players have been revealed.

[Loose Canon]

Lets just say for now that Hjelp was the Patron

We now know he had to have recruited 1 of Annie, Loose , Bunny, Dev, Homer, Rag thats 17% at start of game
Night 1 the recruit becomes 1 in 5 thats another 20%
Thats a 37% chance in total of Archivist having been recruited.

If I take myself out of the equation because I wasn't recruited and same goes for any other original house player not recruited
Start of game probability is 1 in 5
Night 1 is 1 in 4
Thats a 45% chance in total of Archivist having been recruited.

For any other original house applicant not yet recruited the probability of archivist having been recruited becomes higher if you believe I'm not currently Circle.
Start of game 1 in 4
Night 1 then 1 in 3
Thats a 58% chance of Archivist having been recruited!

So maybe you don't accept that I'm currently house?
Cards on the table time;

I am Usher (House) - one night I can redirect the any circle recruitment of a town power role player onto a random vanilla town player.


I think the lynch should be either Annie or Hjelp - Im just not sure which - but other House should be thinking it is 58% that Annie is Circle and Hjelp looks like Circle too.

No you are not doing the probabilities annie, because they dont suit you. 58% is derived as above

[annieh]

This is the Monty hall problem screw up. (And the last time I engage with LC, who simply cannot be serious)

Watch YouTube videos. No way I'm going down that road right now.

2/11 was recruited and 9/11 not recruited into circle. The odds any given player is a role do not change when we learn about other roles. The percentages have to work out to 100 all the way through.

[Loose Canon]

The probability point is probably of reducing value now.

You have made yourself look so guilty over the last few hours Annie. Snatching defeat from the circular jaws of victoey?

[HottBunnie]

Last time someone made up a whole bunch of stuff about probabilities was last game and didn’t we win that one and then I called LCs change in behavior out as indicative of a role change and now he has changed his behavior again back to the rapid posting. If LC doesn’t vote we’ve got him dead to rights.

[Loose Canon]

What - so you dont think annie and hjelp are ultra suspicious from what has been posted over the last few hours?

And i have voted - for annie.

And the rapid posting is in reaction to annies highly suss posts.

[Loose Canon]

And last game i was on town side - check your facts

[HottBunnie]

Annie’s not suspicious at all we have no counter claim we have good evidences, hjelp seems fine only one suspicious here is you rn LC rn w Katys vote I would guess its Dev Patrin Zulu secretary and LC recent recruit.

[HottBunnie]

And last game i was on town side - check your facts

I didn’t say you were guilty last time I said last time someone went off with a whole bunch of statistics that was an indication they were guilty and it turned out to be right. I’m not saying you were the one with the statistics last time.

[Loose Canon]

You dont get a counterclaim if archivist has been recruited.

If you dont like my probabilities argue them.
If you dont like my claim argue it.

Fact is zulu cannot be secretary.

Ffs get your vote off of dev while this is argued through.
A lot has happened which you are glossing over or not understanding or misinterpreting.

[Loose Canon]

Actually question back at you.

Why did you say something to the effect that you didnt think the roles were only the ones preadvertised at some point mid D1?

[SoN!c]

MOD ANNOUNCEMENT!

Because of 2 non-Circle modkills, and because nobody wants (edited: "TOO MUCH") math and stats running the game (WETHER YOU USE IT TACTICAL OR NOT AS HOUSE OR CIRCLE) instead of proper social deduction, this announcement is made:

All game mechanics were calculated before the start for best balance!

This included the % chance the Archivist would be recruited too fast, so by design it would not be allowed to be more then about 20 to 25% chance the Archivist is one of the two recruits by Day 2..

BOTTOM LINE:

Play the reads. Not the percentages.

Have fun!

[Loose Canon]

Im playing reads and percentages.

And certain deductions from what has happened since start of game mean the og 20-25% can be seriously raised now.

[Zulu Warrior]

Someone take their f'ing vote off dev for now!

Annie why did you choose dev to investigate?
Why not hjelp - suss all way through d1?
Why not rag- best player best recruit?

Are you only saying dev because under sus from bunny

You are collecting more argumetns for you to be Circle since why don't you asked annieh why she didn't choose to investigate you as well.
I think anmoeh is the Archivist so my vote on Devante stays.

I vote Devante

[Loose Canon]

Deadline is not this friday but like predicted the next.. nevertheless town is in a dire spot. With 3 circle members alive and just 10 in total alive + that includes one voteless townie (charle) town will need all 6 town votes to win..

Strange not one townie did the math so a town divided will need to come together...

A mislynch D2 = CIRCLE WINS!

And anyway what happened to this sonic who found it strange not one townie did the math.

Fpd

[SoN!c]

Someone take their f'ing vote off dev for now!

Annie why did you choose dev to investigate?
Why not hjelp - suss all way through d1?
Why not rag- best player best recruit?

Are you only saying dev because under sus from bunny

You are collecting more argumetns for you to be Circle since why don't you asked annieh why she didn't choose to investigate you as well.
I think anmoeh is the Archivist so my vote on Devante stays.

I vote Devante

Votes have to be in bold red but since Zulu is total new i believe i need to accept it whatever the outcome - sending a PM to Zulu now asking to confirm his vote.

[Devante]

Am heading home after Gold game will post more by then but you guys are fast rolling this and will cost town the damn game. Annie's claim is false. I am archivist. Bunnie is who i investigated and she came back clean as not circle. Will you all ffs just give me time to head home and respond I can't go through forums to reply on my damn phone here

[Zulu Warrior]

Vote Devante

[Zulu Warrior]

I'll try to vote again. I can't get my head around this, sorry :0(

Vote Devante