PKMN Beach Mafia: Cult Wins

[dakky21]

[quote="Army of GOD]I think the entire discussion around probabilities and whatnot is a smokescreen to act like he's making actually accusations.

Also, instead of leaving it up to dakky, I think we should tell dakky who to pick...that way at least we'll be in control of his night kill[/quote]

Whole day mandy and william are staying on me for the same reasons from beginning. The reason is I WILL become SK at one point and become a hazard for the town, and they're right there. I will be a problem for town when I become SK. BUT at this current point, I am not a SK. Going for a town vig now is going just like any other claimed town player - "Hey, let's lynch town because town might become a problem" - is what they're trying to do. That doesn't necessarily mean they're scum, but at the same time not willing to change their vote suggests that they are, or for some reason they want a no lynch to happen. They trust each other on a case on me like they know that I'm town and want me dead in order not to shoot someone of them tonight. And if they NK me, it will be known why they did that, because I wanted to shoot them. So my two top scum choices are exactly these two.

So I want to target either Mandy or William for being stubborn. I'll listen to you all and if you all don't agree, I'll shoot someone else, but make me at least a choice between two so they have 50-50.

Now when I wrote that... it came to my mind... the mafia roleblocker wouldn't block the mafia themself... so there must be the town roleblocker OR the mafia targeted Tim as well as I did, but I don't see a reason why would they do that as Tim was unreadable anyway. Now if there is a town roleblocker, why didn't he said if he blocked someone, that would reveal the mafia hitman for N2? Unless the night kill was bussed from someone else to Tim, but that would suggest that both Mandy and William are lying about bussing...

Think about it.

[dakky21]

EBWOP:

I think the entire discussion around probabilities and whatnot is a smokescreen to act like he's making actually accusations.

Also, instead of leaving it up to dakky, I think we should tell dakky who to pick...that way at least we'll be in control of his night kill

Whole day mandy and william are staying on me for the same reasons from beginning. The reason is I WILL become SK at one point and become a hazard for the town, and they're right there. I will be a problem for town when I become SK. BUT at this current point, I am not a SK. Going for a town vig now is going just like any other claimed town player - "Hey, let's lynch town because town might become a problem" - is what they're trying to do. That doesn't necessarily mean they're scum, but at the same time not willing to change their vote suggests that they are, or for some reason they want a no lynch to happen. They trust each other on a case on me like they know that I'm town and want me dead in order not to shoot someone of them tonight. And if they NK me, it will be known why they did that, because I wanted to shoot them. So my two top scum choices are exactly these two.

So I want to target either Mandy or William for being stubborn. I'll listen to you all and if you all don't agree, I'll shoot someone else, but make me at least a choice between two so they have 50-50.

Now when I wrote that... it came to my mind... the mafia roleblocker wouldn't block the mafia themself... so there must be the town roleblocker OR the mafia targeted Tim as well as I did, but I don't see a reason why would they do that as Tim was unreadable anyway. Now if there is a town roleblocker, why didn't he said if he blocked someone, that would reveal the mafia hitman for N2? Unless the night kill was bussed from someone else to Tim, but that would suggest that both Mandy and William are lying about bussing...

Think about it.

[william18]

I did. I implied that if you were lynched, and I found a mafia member, we could lynch him without worrying about you. I think everyone already agrees that you should be lynched before night 4. I just don't get why you want to have 50% chance to lose the game being lynched as an sk. Your probably already an sk, or maybe you don't care about personally winning. Neither are very good cases.

Because as we said before... mafia is not a game of chances. We have reads here and I want to take a shot at my top scum read tonight. Regardless if I turn to SK and lose the game. After all, there is a possibility I don't turn to sk and if that happens people will either have to believe me or they won't, but that's entirely new day.

Who are you trying to fool? I love you try to dismiss my argument of 'chances'. For you it is chances. You are most certainly gonna be lynched very soon, and you say there is a 50% chance to become sk. If an sk is lynched, does he still win with town? So you do have a 50% chance to lose if your lynched tomorrow.

WIth the bolded part, im am totally not ok with that scenario, at all.

mitch was my strongest I think it's way too risky to willingly lynch a claimed detective when no other counter claims were made


that's a risky fakeclaim if he was scum...just can't do it

I'm going to vote william

Alright, so this logic is not very consistent.

I think the entire discussion around probabilities and whatnot is a smokescreen to act like he's making actually accusations.

If any of my arguments/logic involving probablities is incorrect, or unsound, please point them out. Point out my deception. I made my point on day 2 saying that if rish is mafia, that I would suspect dakky. I followed through by scrutinizing his claim.

[william18]

EBWOP:

I think the entire discussion around probabilities and whatnot is a smokescreen to act like he's making actually accusations.

Also, instead of leaving it up to dakky, I think we should tell dakky who to pick...that way at least we'll be in control of his night kill

Whole day mandy and william are staying on me for the same reasons from beginning. The reason is I WILL become SK at one point and become a hazard for the town, and they're right there. I will be a problem for town when I become SK. BUT at this current point, I am not a SK. Going for a town vig now is going just like any other claimed town player - "Hey, let's lynch town because town might become a problem" - is what they're trying to do. That doesn't necessarily mean they're scum, but at the same time not willing to change their vote suggests that they are, or for some reason they want a no lynch to happen. They trust each other on a case on me like they know that I'm town and want me dead in order not to shoot someone of them tonight. And if they NK me, it will be known why they did that, because I wanted to shoot them. So my two top scum choices are exactly these two.

So I want to target either Mandy or William for being stubborn. I'll listen to you all and if you all don't agree, I'll shoot someone else, but make me at least a choice between two so they have 50-50.

Now when I wrote that... it came to my mind... the mafia roleblocker wouldn't block the mafia themself... so there must be the town roleblocker OR the mafia targeted Tim as well as I did, but I don't see a reason why would they do that as Tim was unreadable anyway. Now if there is a town roleblocker, why didn't he said if he blocked someone, that would reveal the mafia hitman for N2? Unless the night kill was bussed from someone else to Tim, but that would suggest that both Mandy and William are lying about bussing...

Think about it.

First off, we don't know your town. Second off, we don't have any other leads. You already claimed to be a future sk. I'd rather just get you out of the way and avoid future complications. I don't think having a vig for the night is worth the risk of not lynching an actual town threat.

[mandalorian2298]

I'll claim. I was IB's other half as a town mason. My secondary WC was that IB had to survive, but it looks like IB made sure that didn't happen...


I'm going to vote william

I think the entire discussion around probabilities and whatnot is a smokescreen to act like he's making actually accusations.


Also, instead of leaving it up to dakky, I think we should tell dakky who to pick...that way at least we'll be in control of his night kill

No you don't. Neither do you actually read the posts. If you did, you would have understood that the only 'discussion' here is between people who understand B.A.S.I.C. math and the guy who is doing a Trump and just saying: "No! You're wrong!" which works when the majority is passive and views thinking as a choir instead of seeing it as the only way to make a right decision.

mitch was my strongest scum read so far but I think it's way too risky to willingly lynch a claimed detective when no other counter claims were made


that's a risky fakeclaim if he was scum...just can't do it

...

...
I've seen some skimmers in my time, but this has got to take the cake.

So, after not posting ANYTHING since Wednesday, you come back with the idea to lynch William TO AVOID WILLINGLY LYNCHING A CLAIMED DETECTIVE WHO HASN'T BEEN COUNTER CLAIMED!!!!????

unvote vote AoG not only is he blatantly submarrining, this vote shows that he doesn't really care who get's lynched. He just poped in, skimmed a bit, a then chose one of the two guys with most votes since he figured that "numbers are bad" argument will mean that he doesn't have to re-read as much. Unfortunatelly for him, he obviously missed William's claim so he ended up puting a foot in his mouth.

[william18]

After thinking a bit, and considering army's revelation that he is the mason, i've been thinking a bit, so far:

mitch - although i think he is playing rather poorly, i'll admit hes probabily mafia because of his post about tim being chincou
mandy - he said he was the town busdriver, which makes sense why i got him for my investigation
dakky - dakky might be an sk/vig. Who knows which one. The flavour doesn't really discredit him being mafia.
Army - The second mason
me - I'm the JOAT/Cop
strikewolf - PR killer?

We don't know who Aage, Marashu, hotshot, and strike. Atleast 2 are mafia. I guess we can leave aage aside since he seems the most town. Thats leaves marashu and Hotshot and strike. Both of hotshot and marashu which voted rish. Honestly, I feel strikewolf is rather quiet, his role is rather disruptive, and he didn't vote rish. Hotshot strikes me as a town. This might be a bit tinfoily, but last game i moded, i see that marashu is not hesitant to vote his mafia members when needed. So maybe strike and marashu, with dakky being the vig. If no one wants to lynch dakky, I would be fine with looking into strike, marashu, or hotshot.

FP by mandy.

I'm gonna wait to see if anyone counterclaims mason before I suspect Army.

[madmitch]

@ Will it was just a lucky guess about Tim , when I was told he was an electric pokemon with a surfboard ,I looked up if there was any water/electric pokemons and found chinchou, nothing scummy about that... @ Mandy I don't think AOG was skimming , I am the only claimed Detective, Will claimed JOAT with an investigating role as one his ability.It seems you both want everybodies eyes off you guys.

[william18]

@ Will it was just a lucky guess about Tim , when I was told he was an electric pokemon with a surfboard ,I looked up if there was any water/electric pokemons and found chinchou, nothing scummy about that... @ Mandy I don't think AOG was skimming , I am the only claimed Detective, Will claimed JOAT with an investigating role as one his ability.It seems you both want everybodies eyes off you guys.

Opps my bad. I meant to say you were probably town.

mitch - although i think he is playing rather poorly, i'll admit hes probabily town because of his post about tim being chincou

That makes more sense. That post about tim is a positive for you. Srry about that lol.

Also, you didn't claim detective. You claimed a flavour cop, that apparently alternates between useless character info, and role information.

I feel like strike is being rather quiet. Im wondering what aage's thought are on strikewolf.

[dakky21]

mandy - he said he was the town busdriver, which makes sense why i got him for my investigation

bus driver drives a bus. He doesn't appear to you as a result. If you did target aage and if bus driver switched aage with mandy, then you would get result on mandy. Not on a bus driver. So if he said that (don't have the time to search for the post now), then he is lying about being a bus driver, unless he switched himself with aage, if that was possible.

So, after not posting ANYTHING since Wednesday, you come back with the idea to lynch William TO AVOID WILLINGLY LYNCHING A CLAIMED DETECTIVE WHO HASN'T BEEN COUNTER CLAIMED!!!!????

unvote vote AoG not only is he blatantly submarrining, this vote shows that he doesn't really care who get's lynched. He just poped in, skimmed a bit, a then chose one of the two guys with most votes since he figured that "numbers are bad" argument will mean that he doesn't have to re-read as much. Unfortunatelly for him, he obviously missed William's claim so he ended up puting a foot in his mouth.

Unfortunately for you, he did never claimed DETECTIVE... that's mitch claim... Will claimed a cop instead.

Looking from my Point of View, william is town, you're not mandy...

[HotShot53]

mandy - he said he was the town busdriver, which makes sense why i got him for my investigation

bus driver drives a bus. He doesn't appear to you as a result. If you did target aage and if bus driver switched aage with mandy, then you would get result on mandy. Not on a bus driver. So if he said that (don't have the time to search for the post now), then he is lying about being a bus driver, unless he switched himself with aage, if that was possible.

Umm... you really shouldn't accuse people of skimming when you skim this bad yourself. Not only did mandy claim bus driver, he claimed that he switched himself with aage, and that made him meet his second win condition of being targeted by 2 people.

[HotShot53]

Mandy, can you only target 1 person and yourself, or can you swap 2 people? Interesting to note 2 or more people targeted aage - grats on clearing 2wc.

By process of elimination, I would say HotShot should go. Unless william and mandy are scumbuddies, they check each other out. Dakky is likely town. It is possible that aage was targeted by cop and doc but not mafia, and he himself is mafia, but that is unlikely. With an actual cop, mitch might be a good vigi candidate. Strike has been more towny today, and I feel like hotshot is more likely to be mafia than AoG.

vote hotshot

So what exactly makes me more scummy than AoG? And what has strike done that is so towny? Hard to defend myself when you only say "you feel".

Assuming AoG was mason with IB, there is no guarantee that makes him town... I've seen town/scum mason pairs before with second win conditions of keeping each other alive (whether or not IB knew AoG's alignment is unfortunately not askable since IB is now dead).

[dakky21]

Umm... you really shouldn't accuse people of skimming when you skim this bad yourself. Not only did mandy claim bus driver, he claimed that he switched himself with aage, and that made him meet his second win condition of being targeted by 2 people.

Told you I'm busy right now, can't search now for his posts... If he said that, then ok, I retract the accusation

[HotShot53]

It looks like Will and Mandy and Dakky and myself don't want to change votes,well that is no good for town, can we all agree on someone else that we all think that could be scummy? W e all agree Aage is the good guy so let's follow his vote.

With day running out soon, looks like this is the best idea so far... I don't think dakky or william will get enough votes to be lynched today. As I said it my analysis post, I was neutral on marashu, and his post to vote me with no reasons doesn't exactly make me think he is town trying to find scum... more like scum trying to not get involved in the big fight. So I will join Aage and unvote, vote Marashu

[Marashu]

So, right now things are pretty confusing, and since everyone seems pretty town-y, I suspect that mafia is in the town circle. So we need to try to catch some scum in their lies. So I'm gonna make a play to hopefully stir the pot a little. Here's what I propose:

I'm not doing a full claim today. I will claim that a part of my role is that I am lynch-proof. I propose that we policy lynch me today - proving this and getting information from it is worth more than the risk of a no-lynch or a mislynch, as even though nobody will die, it gives more information than a no-lynch. I will do a full claim after that part of my role is proven, in my first post of D4. That should be enough to prove I am town. I will then call for a mass claim. Strike, I'm not liking how aage wants you to target him with your ability. I'm fine with it, too, so I invite you to target me with it, instead. Choose any vowel you would like. Just, don't reveal who you targeted until after I claim on D4. Likewise, since both aage and I are alright with it, mandy, I invite you to busdrive myself and aage. Again, no need to reveal whether you do or not until after I full claim. Mitch, whomever you choose to investigate, please keep that information to yourself until after the massclaim, since it might be useful in catching a lie. If anyone else wants to get in on it, let them - let the shell games begin, mafia scum.

I will say no more about my role save for this:
-I requested my pokemon, and it was better than I expected it to be
-There is more to my role than just being lynch-proof
-My 2WC is difficult to fulfill on purpose, and I am nowhere near close to achieving it. I am largely ignoring it, and if it happens, it happens.

[Army of GOD]

Wait, I'm confused mandy



Why do you think I skimmed? Im trying to understand, because maybe I misunderstood what happened


1. Mitch claimed town detective...no one counter claimed, right?
2. william claimed JOAT which has a "cop path"...that doesn't make him a cop, he wasn't given the role cop, he was given the role JOAT, which imo is the easiest fake claim in mafia



Also, william, I never said your calculations were wrong, I just think that using them in the way you were trying to use them is an attempt to say something without actually saying anything. There was no real conclusion to that entire discussion and hell, as far as we know, dakky could've lied about the probability thing any way

[Army of GOD]

@ Mandy I don't think AOG was skimming , I am the only claimed Detective, Will claimed JOAT with an investigating role as one his ability.It seems you both want everybodies eyes off you guys.

This really does what it is starting to seem like. william "confirms" mandy as town, mandy defends the integrity of william's role


Interesting

[dakky21]

I agree with Marashu, but even if he proves himself non-lynch-able that doesn't determines his alignment. But at least we will have a lynch today, rather than no lynch. Then again, if mandy and william accept the idea while being on me without a slight chance of thinking of changing vote, I will really think that them are all working together. Even if we lynch Marashu and prove he is lynch-proof, it doesn't mean anything, so I'd rather go with one of them who are on me without any proof other than I "WILL be a hazard for town at some point, maybe never"...

I know how it looks like, but from my point of view, people not voting mandy or william get higher on my scum list. I can be wrong, maybe they're both town, but so much energy spent into lynching me and so much energy not wanting to lynch someone else just screams scum to me. They don't have a working case on anyone else and are feared I will kill one of them. Why don't we work together people if you're really town?

fp'd by AoG

[william18]

I agree with Marashu, but even if he proves himself non-lynch-able that doesn't determines his alignment. But at least we will have a lynch today, rather than no lynch. Then again, if mandy and william accept the idea while being on me without a slight chance of thinking of changing vote, I will really think that them are all working together. Even if we lynch Marashu and prove he is lynch-proof, it doesn't mean anything, so I'd rather go with one of them who are on me without any proof other than I "WILL be a hazard for town at some point, maybe never"...

I know how it looks like, but from my point of view, people not voting mandy or william get higher on my scum list. I can be wrong, maybe they're both town, but so much energy spent into lynching me and so much energy not wanting to lynch someone else just screams scum to me. They don't have a working case on anyone else and are feared I will kill one of them. Why don't we work together people if you're really town?

fp'd by AoG

Roles that become anti town should be reason enough to warrant a lynch. There's already a chance your an sk. There's also a chance you're mafia the whole time. I think we are giving the notion that mafia would never target tim too much weight in this argument. Dakky already expected to be lynched if rish turned out scum. Not too hard for him to choose a bad target, and use the case that he must be a vig since mafia would never target tim.

[mandalorian2298]

Wait, I'm confused mandy



Why do you think I skimmed? Im trying to understand, because maybe I misunderstood what happened


1. Mitch claimed town detective...no one counter claimed, right?
2. william claimed JOAT which has a "cop path"...that doesn't make him a cop, he wasn't given the role cop, he was given the role JOAT, which imo is the easiest fake claim in mafia

1. Mitch is not issue. The issues is wording it like lynching William is an alternative to lynching Mitch who is in absolutely no danger of being lynched today.

2. It gives him Cop Night action which makes him a Cop in all but name, which makes him as valuable for the Town as a Cop. Also, I confirmed that he is correct about me bus riding aage and me. If he is just straight up lying about being JOAT how come he knows that?

[aage]

I'll claim. I was IB's other half as a town mason. My secondary WC was that IB had to survive, but it looks like IB made sure that didn't happen...

That's exactly what I thought, so I still have you as town.

Also, instead of leaving it up to dakky, I think we should tell dakky who to pick...that way at least we'll be in control of his night kill

That's exactly what I suggested earlier you're town, please keep up.

I'm going to vote william

I think the entire discussion around probabilities and whatnot is a smokescreen to act like he's making actually accusations.

That's just silly. William shared that he targeted me with his ability, and got a result on Mandy. Then Mandy claimed he is busdriver and switched me and himself. It's really simple - either they are both lying, or they are both telling the truth.
The same is likely true for Dakky+Mitch, if Dakky is scum Mitch is lying about his result, if Mitch is scum he wouldn't protect a town by fake claiming.

The only vaguely possible other option I can see is if Tim's "surfer" role is a busdrive, DY is an ass for not calling it that and Mandy took advantage of the situation. Even in that situation, Will is still town, and I'd like to assume DY is not a bastard.


We can spend the day lynching one of these four to confirm the other as town/scum, but that seems like a waste. We can use night actions for that. I suggest we do lynch Marashu today. If he dies, he lies; if he lives, he's probably town. Unlynchable mafia is about the most unbalanced thing I've ever heard of.

Here's what I suggest.
We lynch Marashu. Dakky, I want to alter the proposal I made; you no longer get a choice. Shoot Mandy tonight. Mandy, use your role however you see fit. You already claim to have fulfilled your 2nd wincon so you could die to confirm William's alignment and still win. William, check out Strike. Mitch, check out hotshot. Then everyone who survives reports back the next day. I think we should be able to puzzle it out.

[aage]

Also, I'm requesting an extension on the deadline since the current deadline is tomorrow, just in case.

[william18]

Also, I'm requesting an extension on the deadline since the current deadline is tomorrow, just in case.

I could get behind the idea of just lynching marashu for info, and prolonging the game. I'll also put in a request for extension. We need 3 people right?

[dakky21]

Also, I'm requesting an extension on the deadline since the current deadline is tomorrow, just in case.

I could get behind the idea of just lynching marashu for info, and prolonging the game. I'll also put in a request for extension. We need 3 people right?

Yes, and i'm the third who wants an extension.

aage, I like your plan... though I could easily get roleblocked or Mandy protected if we openly say to shoot exactly him. That's why I'd rather have 2 options.

[aage]

aage, I like your plan... though I could easily get roleblocked or Mandy protected if we openly say to shoot exactly him.

That's fine. If mafia wants to spend the night roleblocking you instead of the investigative roles, they're welcome to. If Mandy gets protected that doesn't really matter either, then we have a living busdriver who is very likely town.

[dakky21]

aage, I like your plan... though I could easily get roleblocked or Mandy protected if we openly say to shoot exactly him.

That's fine. If mafia wants to spend the night roleblocking you instead of the investigative roles, they're welcome to. If Mandy gets protected that doesn't really matter either, then we have a living busdriver who is very likely town.

But if mandy busses him again with for example you... you will die from my shot, you are aware of that? or if he busses him with me, I'll shoot myself... that's one more reason why not to say who should be shot or at least give few targets...