Strategy vs. Luck

[spline]

I think the reason most people suddenly start complaining about bad luck is because the luck turns against them in a couple of games (or moves) in a row and they get frustrated. All you have to do is to be patient and follow with your strategy.

This is what usually happens. There is a critical move and you need to win it and suddenly the first dice leads to loss of two armies. Then you try again and 2 more is lost. Now you have a dilemma. You have lost 4 armies and achieved nothing. Ouch. In the game, you may be in critical need of a card, or win the territory to block someone else's path, or some other important reason. You think that since you have been unlucky enough (as if your next dice throw depends on the previous one you threw) you must have a higher chance this time (which of course is still the same chance) and then you throw the dice .... and ... guess what... you lost again!

This is when most people (including me) say some *swear* word really loudly and curse the dice in Risk and grandly conclude that, "of course if I was lucky I would have won the game, but since I had terrible dice I couldn't do much!!!"

Oh well, it's all in the mind and our brains are pretty bad at understanding probability and statistics. One doesn't have to go far to see how this is impacting us in the real world!

Anyway, as it has been stated by others in this thread, think long terms. It will all even out the more you play. So , just keep playing and keep your eyes on the ball.