Black Metal Mafia - D3

[Loose Canon]

So just to be clear max, given the following a,b,c options regarding you personally

A. I am not a detective
B. I am a detective
C. I am not saying whether I'm a detective or not

You would currently choose C???

Even though evidence of a detective or not, would evidence a recruit or not, and if not which players would more likely opt for no recruit.

Also max, given your FOS on me and Charle, does this signify you would NOT be on board with a lynching of Ew or sonic, if neither are lynched today???

lynching of Ew or sonic tomorrow, if neither are lynched today???

Max, you haven't answered the above 2 questions.
It's not impossible that votes might start landing on you.
I don't have confidence you would do the right things for town D4.
If votes were to start landing on you, I'd hang a sword above your head and threaten a vote on you.
You could be zealously guarding a detective role so I'd be hesitant about swinging it. But then again I might. Best you answer the 2 above questions now I think.
(Whether or not any detective should claim now is an open question, any detective surviving into d4 should for sure claim then)

[Charle]

Guys, if Max was cop, he would have investigated me on N1 already as he was on my case since then. He would have seen I am not guilty and stopped wasting votes on me. The fact that he cannot see that I am town and constantly voting me (hoping to get a confirmed townie lynched so that they can focus on finding jailkeeper), makes him No. 1 suspect in my books.

Unless Max comes up with good reasoning for his actions, he reads the most scum of all at the moment.

[SoN!c]

Kong asked me a valid a question re Ew.

I had microsuspicions of ew to end of d2 and I believe you will find I may not have called them out loud and clear, but I did post regarding them.
To balance these microsuspicions Ew has been asking valid questions - what if I'm wrong, am I still suspicious of him. Of course Ew is a clever player so my microsuspicions and his asking the right questions of me probably each amount to very little.
You are right that the no recruit theory forms the main basis of my suspicion on Ew.
But there is also Sonic's distraction strategy that makes me think he's distracting for a reason, and he started this once I went for Ew d3 and not sonic.

Kong you also ask why not Traf.
I think you will find beginning of d3 I had suspicion of Traf too, it's just sonic has gone so 1 dimensionally on loose is scum that I can't work out what sonic is up to if he's town. Ew made what I think was that argument on sonic too.

Don't be silly Loose. You sound like an exact copy from the Charle game. Pretty funny you mentioned that. Everytime you were 3P serial killer you could (looking back) notice the difference. So nobody is gonna vote you. Unless you start wild loose chases

First of all I looked exactly like I looked in Charles game when I was town mason, now I'm obvious scum. Ok a town sonic can change his mind - just pointing that out for starters sonic.

Thing is maybe at the point you posted the above , scum sonic thought I might be detective so worth backing off D2.
But then d3 I kick off with the no recruit theory and scum sonic figures I'm not, so that removes his reticence to go hard at me.

These comments are sheer humbug. At least you make me laugh.

If you take the time to read this thoroughly and think it thru it's again more of the same "it's Sonic +...".

Ive been at you since halfway D1 Loose. And pretty hard on D2 aswell. I never tought you were the cop like you suggest. You claimed to be vanilla super fast.

And Think about it: i (as scum) think your the cop since D1 (like you say here) but you are still alive? Man, do i suck that hard as scum that you think that? Scum would not kill the cop first?
----

I liked your search activity D1, you were taking point and doing good untill it got bizarre and a pattern started to develop. Too many faults (voting Charle, placing big FoS on Pixar when everybody was thinking they are "lock town"). And just going at whoever dares to question you or Max. Like you did with Pixar and Strike before. So yes one needs to wonder: is Max your scumpartner or do you just wanna trick him on your side. As town there is no way you can be sure Max is not scum but you have him "lock town without even one question" and while Charle has valid arguments..you just ignored them all game long.

Only today the first glimpse of any critical view of you towards Max emerges. "Hey Max do this because if you do not do what i say i might start to think voting you"

(I'd hang a sword above your head and threaten a vote on you.)

Also You never once went along with Kong and his concerns about Traf. A town Loose would be in full support of Kong going after Traf, just to check it out and be sure, but you are only worried about self-defence. Only OMGUS in this game. And you cannot explain why, you cannot explain your reasoning behind your "100% sure cases" because you cannot admit it's just self defense OMGUS. So you fabricate stupid reasoning (aka smoke) like you did today on EW (the no recruit theory) or like you did on Strike (the "well elabore post" with 16 minutes time gap versus "the call-out post")...

So that is why i think you are scum Loose. Not dumb town moves but smart scum moves. Like not joining the bandwagon on JFM but voting Max seconds before deadline. Put yourself into my shoes and reread the thread. You will come to the same conclusion if your honest.

[Loose Canon]

Charle, I can't fault your logic for max not being any town detective.

However I think max should answer the 2 questions I asked of him.

And Charle I asked you some time back for insight as to Max's mo as scum. You have voted for max. Care to give your insights?

[Charle]

Charle, I can't fault your logic for max not being any town detective.

However I think max should answer the 2 questions I asked of him.

And Charle I asked you some time back for insight as to Max's mo as scum. You have voted for max. Care to give your insights?

Max as scum was pretty much the same way he plays as town as well, not very active. I had to prod him myself a few times just to post something.

[Loose Canon]

When masons together with me he was more engaged.
I went down the alternative wrong hypothesis route, he got the feel that with what he was saying and me going down that route too it was probably correct.
There was what goes for debate between us.
I changed back to the correct hypothesis.
Max stuck on the alternative hypothesis.

[Loose Canon]

Town has a problem.
Town doesn't know and can have no confidence that Max will do the right thing D4, or whether he'll vote Charle again, or go on whatever other solo theory he has D4.
If it wasn't for that Town could I think wait till D4 and either lynch Me or EW/Sonic then.
I don't think Town has that option - but Max might come through and say yep if there's a majority waiting just needing my vote D4 I'll fall in line.

I've gone up against EW and Sonic today - that puts me at a natural 2 v 1 disadvantage.

Charle you want to keep EW in the game because you think he would be too valuable a townsperson to lose if town.
He's smart and experienced enough to play scum perfectly.
One of EWs earlier defences was he'd be stupid as scum to kill Strike.
There's my earlier counter to that of if not then then when for a scum EW.
There's also the added incentive for EW to get rid of Strike in that Max said Strike was the one player he thought had a brain. Take out Strike and scum might figure Max is more likely to just do his own thing - it looks like that is what Max is intending to do but I'm inviting him to signify otherwise.
This does not seem to be a role heavy game where you might give more weighting to an advantage of town EW than the disadvantage of a scum EW.
If Sonic is scum and lynched, jailkeeper locks up EW and sees what happens or doesn't N3.

This is what I think has happened.

Sonic and EW debated whether to recruit or not and they opted not to.
One of them did moot the idea of recruiting Max - so EWs comment that if recruiting he'd go for a player like Max was a bit odd but had a link back to their true deliberations.
When I pointed out that not recruiting had the hidden advantage of a detective false claim EW said a false detective claim might still have legs even with a true detective, and Sonic said OK but I wouldn't have thought about that in the decision time would I?
In a No Recruit scenario - am I smart enough from the outset to have plotted out revealing the gamebook and deceptive enough to figure out from the outset that I can successfully frame either EW or Sonic, and survive the consequences of doing so?
I'm not that smart and I wouldn't have the ability to do so - but make no mistake I'd like to be able to do so.

Please see the wood from the trees in Sonics play. It is all distraction, diversion and noise. Ews is a lot more subtle.

WOOD FROM THE TREES GUYS how can you not suspect Sonic?

Kong - I frustratingly for you didn't follow your play in the last game when it was spot on - and probably more than anyone else led to you being mislynched. We still won that game because your play/analysis was spot on. In this game I put it to you - the roles are reversed.

Traf - as scum you have played more disinterested. Ask yourself what was with Sonics I don't want to play anymore posts?
I would have made you 2nd favourite behind EW to be a no recruiter, but Sonic has come in soooo strongly on interference noise - you've got to think why?

Dev you are quiet but have a reputation of being smart in the endgame to uphold.

Charle, Kong, Traf, Dev, Me thats 5 that's what it takes for a lynch on Sonic or EW D3.
Best to assume for now Max will go solo, but there's a door open to him if he indicates otherwise.

Ordinarily I'd say lynch me you'll find out if I flip town.
4 of us can survive into D4 if there's no lynch today and a death tonight.

As things stand the only good options are;
1. Lynch Me if YOU (not Sonic) thinks this is a load of bull.
2. Lynch Sonic (or EW) if you want to test my solution D3, and maybe still have some flexibility D4.
3. Go No Lynch today or let No Lynch just happen - but no lynch will need a core of 4 surviving tomorrow ready then to go Me or Sonic/EW- which there might be.
4. Lynch Max as unreliable town today and you have to currently assume tomorrow too - but again that only works if there's going to be a core of 4 surviving tomorrow ready then to go Me or Sonic/EW.

If you guys are not prepared to go Me or EW/Sonic today how can you have any confidence that you will be prepared to do so as a core tomorrow?

Lynching Sonic is the best play today - I disagree with Max - Strike wasn't the only one with a brain - I see 4 other town Players with brains (and 2 scum with brains, including 1 with a big brain). You'd still have options on the table if somehow Sonic flips town if you lynch him now.

[TrafalgarLaw01]

I agree that max is problem for town. We cannot be sure if he will do the right thing. And he is top scumm in my lsit along with Kong. I'm willing to lynch any of them both unless we got some evidence

[Loose Canon]

ok Traf, but my theory fits the facts as we know them.
I believe my own theory - surprise surprise.
I can't possibly vote for Kong in the current state, because he's a player with critical analytical thinking who is capable of coming round - as you are.

It won't do any harm for you to press your suspicions on Kong and see what falls out, what traction it has, if anything new emerges, if say there is a detective after all etc.

[Charle]

I agree that max is problem for town. We cannot be sure if he will do the right thing. And he is top scumm in my lsit along with Kong. I'm willing to lynch any of them both unless we got some evidence

Yes, let's do that. If Max flips town, we then can focus on Loose's theory? What worries me a bit is that Loose doesn't want to vote Max, when I pointed out why I think he is scum, which had strong grounds.

[Loose Canon]

So just to be clear max, given the following a,b,c options regarding you personally

A. I am not a detective
B. I am a detective
C. I am not saying whether I'm a detective or not

You would currently choose C???

Even though evidence of a detective or not, would evidence a recruit or not, and if not which players would more likely opt for no recruit.

Also max, given your FOS on me and Charle, does this signify you would NOT be on board with a lynching of Ew or sonic, if neither are lynched today???

lynching of Ew or sonic tomorrow, if neither are lynched today???

Max, you haven't answered the above 2 questions.
It's not impossible that votes might start landing on you.
I don't have confidence you would do the right things for town D4.
If votes were to start landing on you, I'd hang a sword above your head and threaten a vote on you.
You could be zealously guarding a detective role so I'd be hesitant about swinging it. But then again I might. Best you answer the 2 above questions now I think.
(Whether or not any detective should claim now is an open question, any detective surviving into d4 should for sure claim then)

Max answer my questions.
As you can see there is pressure rising, and the guys are thinking I'm reluctant to vote for you.
I think you are more likely to be unreliable town than scum, but assuming I wouldn't lynch you .....

[Loose Canon]

My self justification for being the 5th vote to lynch max if it comes to it would be along the lines of.
It could be Sonic's play is reinforcing my suspicions of Ew, when actually someone else is a scumbud of sonic. If that's the case, is max really that less likely than anyone else?
Ok I'd probably be lynching unreliable town rather than scum, but there's got to be an outside chance of actual scum max, that tips the scales to lynch.
???

[Loose Canon]

I've left it a couple of days before posting this just to see if there would be a post from EW, but now I'm going to comment on the lack of a post from EW on the following;

I've said a couple of times that in the case of doubt on EW being scum but a lynch vote on a scum Sonic carrying, a town jailkeeper could lock up EW and then see if a nightkill goes through or not.

I'd expect a Town EW to say yes you could do that and virtually clear me, whatever the state of voting pressure on Sonic or EW.
I'd also expect a Scum EW in a state of voting pressure on such a scum partner to say yes you could do that.
So such a comment would have been equivocal - to me.
What I'd also expect from a scum EW with a scum Sonic is no such comment at all - to me that is EW thinking best not draw attention to a good idea, we or partner has said too much already, best be quiet for a while particularly on this but also in general and give any heat a chance to dissipate.

To me the lack of such a comment from EW is further indication of scum alignment.

[kongming3]

Is this based on sonic already being lynched and turning out as scum? Because otherwise I don't understand how publicly declaring intent to have someone jailed does anything other than make scum have their partner do the kill instead. If anything, if in this case for instance EW is town, scum could just frame him by attacking a known protected target and then getting a free lynch out of it before coming back the next night and killing again.

I don't think any assumptions about who jailkeeper is choosing to jail at this stage can or should be made, at least until they see fit to reveal what they've done so far. Suggestions are fine and all, but the final decision can't be made on public forum unless there are very contrived circumstances that would lead to a town win, which we don't have.

[Loose Canon]

yes Kong it was based on a sonic lynched flipped scum scenario

[Charle]

yes Kong it was based on a sonic lynched flipped scum scenario

Loose, even if Sonic flip scum it will still not work 100%. Say EW is town and jailkeeper lock up EW, then scum will just nominate EW that night and you will think EW is scum because there is no kill? Or scum can decide not to kill someone for that matter with the same result.

[Loose Canon]

Actually thats true Charle, I didn't think of that.

[SoN!c]

Don't you all get the feeling your being played? Loose wanting to sit in the drivers seat? At the start of the day it's EW, EW, EW, EW....then EW asks 1 question (or signals) "hey Loose do you still think it's me?" and Loose goes "oh well, your probably right i have no good reason on you and im probably wrong anyways old chap so unvote. Vote Sonic again its sonic, its sonic, its sonic..". Nobody finds that fishy? And how many times by now Loose had to admit already being wrong / making a mistake in this game? Is Loose a experienced player y/n? Would a experienced town player make all these mistakes? (And all are good scum moves btw if unnoticed).? Its sonic, its sonic its sonic? Dont think so, im sure who is full of humbug here...", I didn't think of that."..."i was wrong"..."i was dumb"...

[Loose Canon]

There's 2 players I'd like to hear more from Max and Dev, and 1 I've really really appreciated hearing less from.

Max if I don't hear anything more from you in particular re the 2 questions I asked of you, by the time the countdown ticker starts, I will vote for you and will probably stick even though I believe the lynch should be on He Whose Name I Shall Not Mention - but whose Voice Insists on Being Heard.

[SoN!c]

Sounds like Max is expandable after all... in the end just you trying recruiting Max into the loose scum army all game long but cutting him loose at first real sign of big trouble? Airing the theory its you + a very smart scum partner (in line with the Pix kill N1).?? Am i gettting real hot Loose?

[Devante]

I'm not seeing much here other then a lot of nonsense back and forth. Still see Charle as town. Where we at on votes? Let's get a consensus going and get a lynch in place. Charle where you stand on all this

[SoN!c]

Charle is 100% town. No way Rag would have allowed a scum Charle to pull that pm stunt.

[TrafalgarLaw01]

Vote Max

Cause he hammered, and cause he also voted Charle. But mainly to see if he has something to say

[Charle]

I'm not seeing much here other then a lot of nonsense back and forth. Still see Charle as town. Where we at on votes? Let's get a consensus going and get a lynch in place. Charle where you stand on all this

Dev, I can see you are busy and just scanning through, but I think we should go for Max. That seems the most obvious one on my list at the moment. If I am wrong, then it will also be ok, as there aren't any other contributions from Max to Town as he is just wasting votes on me, and a one liner once a week type of thing.

[Maxleod]

Charle is 100% town. No way Rag would have allowed a scum Charle to pull that pm stunt.

Not a stunt, rags just fucked up. Charle is 100% scum. And so are you. And kong.

(though dev and the fairy have been too silent so far)