saxitoxin wrote:jusplay4fun wrote:
Saxi, do you want to predict? Who wins?)
I still think it's too close to call and I genuinely think Harris can win. And I'm fine with that since the Senate is a lock.
However, I think I would rather be in Trump's shoes tonight because I'm mildly bullish on Arizona and Georgia for the below reasons. If that happens, he has 8 different paths to victory: PA + NC, PA + MI, NC + MI, PA + WI, NC + WI, MI + WI, PA + NV, NC+NV+NE2+House Tiebreaker. Meanwhile, Kamala would have 5 paths to victory, two of which involve 4 states.
Arizona - Harris hasn't won a poll in Arizona since September, it's like 20 straight polls for Trump with an aggregate +2.8. And, GOP postal ballots are currently swamping Democratic.
Georgia - Right now RCP's polling average in Georgia is Trump +1.3. However, I've adjusted it as follows:1. Remove every poll that is not a 538 Top 25 poll,
2. Remove AtlasIntel (it's Top 25 but has been consistently Trump this cycle and has too short of a track record to determine if it's a fluke)
3. Use Tukey's Fences to remove outliers (none at p=0.5)
Even after these adjustments it's still Trump +1.2.
Good analysis, Saxi. THANKS.
I watched the news on 11/4 and just a quick "here are the scenarios to win" for each candidate in the Seven Swing States had my head spinning. It will be interesting and I will be watching. However, I do not expect we will know within the next 24-36 hours.
...2am ...He is ending on today, election day...VOTE 
TRUMP 
ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)... 
