The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump

[saxitoxin]

Situation Grim for Harris in Nevada

John Ralston - the Nate Silver of Nevada - just posted this update ...

Here’s your stat for the day: In the 15 rural counties, in-person voting, which is about 37 percent of the rural vote, the Rs lead the Ds by 73 percent to 11 percent. I kid you not. After three days out of 14 days of early data, the Rs are happy. Some think this shows it is over, but that’s silly this early. But if this becomes a trend and not an anomaly, it will be over. The Clark firewall is only 6,500, about a seventh of what it was in 2020. I have been saying 2020 may be an orange, but I bet this apple tastes very sweet to Republicans right now.

So what does this mean? It means Kamala Harris has to win indies by close to double digits if this turnout scenario holds. That is, unless she holds her base several points better than Trump holds his, which is possible but not necessarily likely.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/articl ... -blog-2024

For context, Nevada has 16 counties. Fifteen are classified as "rural counties" which collectively have 1/3 of the Nevada population and about 40% of its likely voters.

[Pack Rat]

Thanks for more of your scary tales for Halloween!

The polls show Trump by 1%, hardly the easy win for him.


https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news ... oint-poll/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2 ... h-latinos/

[saxitoxin]

Thanks for more of your scary tales for Halloween!

The polls show Trump by 1%, hardly the easy win for him.


https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news ... oint-poll/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2 ... h-latinos/

At this time in 2016 the polls showed Hillary up by nearly 5 points in Nevada .. and she only won by 2.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/ ... -vs-harris

[Pack Rat]

It's 2024.

Your latest poll 10-21-24 shows a tie.

[saxitoxin]

It's 2024.

Your latest poll 10-21-24 shows a tie.

I'll explain this a bit simpler ---

The Nevada polls were off by 3 points in 2016, and by 3 points in 2020 ... if they're also off by 3 points in 2024, then Kamala needs to be polling 53-47 just to have a chance at a tie on election day. She's polling 49-51.

[pmac666]

Look whos still fever dreaming of 2016.
Shows how out of touch they are. lol

[Votanic]

Absurdly tight election, regardless.
The U.S. still teeters on the edge of American (Un)Civil (Cold?) War II.

[saxitoxin]

Breaking: Trump is the Choice of Arab Americans!

The evil murderess Holocaust Harris, and her pro-genocide supporters, are being rejected by a core Rat constituency! New polling shows Arab Americans are voting Trump.

... according to a new Arab News/YouGov poll. Forty-five percent of respondents said they are most likely to vote for Trump, while 43% said they would likely cast ballots for Harris, according to the results shared early with Semafor. Another 4% said they would vote for Jill Stein, 6% said they were undecided, and 2% declined to say their choice. The results are similar to a survey released earlier this month by the Arab American Institute, which found Trump with 42% support and Harris with 41% support among Arab Americans.

https://www.semafor.com/article/10/21/2 ... icans-poll

Semafor goes on to subtly imply how brain dead Holocaust Harris' campaign is for having her dry hump the vile war criminal Dick Cheney's daughter, Liz, in front of Arab voters:

Harris is campaigning Monday with Republican former congresswoman Liz Cheney in three battleground states, including Michigan, which boasts a significant Arab-American population. Trump directly appealed to Arab Americans the same day, warning on Truth Social that the Middle East would “spend the next four decades going up in flames” if Harris is elected.

https://www.semafor.com/article/10/21/2 ... icans-poll

Meanwhile, even former Hillary Clinton deputy campaign manager Peter Daou said he will never support the wicked murderess Holocaust Harris, and her rapidly collapsing campaign.

[Votanic]

Breaking: Trump is the Choice of Arab Americans!

The evil murderess Holocaust Harris, and her pro-genocide supporters, are being rejected by a core Rat constituency! New polling shows Arab Americans are voting Trump.

... according to a new Arab News/YouGov poll. Forty-five percent of respondents said they are most likely to vote for Trump, while 43% said they would likely cast ballots for Harris, according to the results shared early with Semafor. Another 4% said they would vote for Jill Stein, 6% said they were undecided, and 2% declined to say their choice. The results are similar to a survey released earlier this month by the Arab American Institute, which found Trump with 42% support and Harris with 41% support among Arab Americans.

https://www.semafor.com/article/10/21/2 ... icans-poll

Semafor goes on to subtly imply how brain dead Holocaust Harris' campaign is for having her dry hump the vile war criminal Dick Cheney's daughter, Liz, in front of Arab voters:

Harris is campaigning Monday with Republican former congresswoman Liz Cheney in three battleground states, including Michigan, which boasts a significant Arab-American population. Trump directly appealed to Arab Americans the same day, warning on Truth Social that the Middle East would “spend the next four decades going up in flames” if Harris is elected.

https://www.semafor.com/article/10/21/2 ... icans-poll

Meanwhile, even former Hillary Clinton deputy campaign manager Peter Daou said he will never support the wicked murderess Holocaust Harris, and her rapidly collapsing campaign.

Idea! It just occurred to me that a retelling of the classic tragedy of Salome might serve as a telling allegory of our own benighted times.
I am of course imagining Trump as a modern-day St. John the Baptist while callow Kamala shall be shown as vain, cruel Salome.

Idea 2! We could even cast the piece from among our own local talent denizens.
Our two dim-witted pees can play Salomala and her machavellian mother, Herodias, ..that is if they feel comfortable donning very light brownface for the role.
These roles might be considered drag, depending on what the pees genders actually turn out to be.
Duk can be the dystopian father figure Herod-Netanyahu,
...and of course, who better to play the doomed St. Trump than our own equally tragic saxitoxin!
We can even cast the Mrs as your chaste hermaphrodite companion, Melania-Barron. ...No seriously, you must remain chaste. Just blueball it.
mook, jus, DDS, etc. can have walk-ons as various servants, slaves, spear carriers, etc.

I will make a brief cameo as your divine cousin, Jesus Christ.

[Pack Rat]

Long tales and derailing threads.

...and we got a moderator who thinks all American election chats belong to this thread, says the Canadian. What a way to suffocate any type of discussion.

[saxitoxin]

Based on today's headlines on The Hill, seems like everyone is saying the old sow is done and this race is over. I wonder if things would have been different if Joe had stayed in? We'll never know.

Nate Silver: ‘My gut says’ Trump will win

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... ion-essay/

Democrats fear race slipping away from Harris

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... und-polls/

Pollster Frank Luntz: Harris momentum ‘froze’ when she went ‘anti-Trump’

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... um-frozen/

[jusplay4fun]

It's 2024.

Your latest poll 10-21-24 shows a tie.

As usual, p-rat fails to comprehend the point of COMPARING 2016 to 2020 and 2024. Try reading again, but slower this time. And he fails to comprehend the SALIENT POINT.

maybe he will comprehend this:

[HitRed]

Voted this morning. While standing in line thought about this wonderful tradition (1788 to present) we have of voting in the USA.

[jusplay4fun]

Voted this morning. While standing in line thought about this wonderful tradition (1788 to present) we have of voting in the USA.

Many forget that this form of Democracy, basically started in the USA, is a precious thing and needs to be protected, appreciated, and discussed. Take "true" Democracy for the Greeks: men only

The Athenian definition of “citizens” was also different from modern-day citizens: only free men were considered citizens in Athens. Women, children, and slaves were not considered citizens and therefore could not vote.

https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/democracy-ancient-greece/

Now, in fairness, the USA started with men only voters and that process has evolved to be more inclusive. That is the other "Beauty" of the American Experiment: there was a process put into its birth to allow for change.

btw: I voted early in VA, around the start of this month. I miss seeing many folks at the polls on THE election day, but early voting is convenient and I avoid long lines. That is the trade-off.

[Pack Rat]

Voting only included, men with property.

show

[HitRed]

[Votanic]

The "just walking at Penn" line is just too rich, ...in more ways than one.
I mean, what about Concerned Jewish Moms that don't have kids at Ivy League universities, ...or does that demographic not really exist??

[Dukasaur]

Voted this morning. While standing in line thought about this wonderful tradition (1788 to present) we have of voting in the USA.

Many forget that this form of Democracy, basically started in the USA, is a precious thing and needs to be protected, appreciated, and discussed. Take "true" Democracy for the Greeks: men only

Lol, you guys make me laugh. You'd claim an American first invented the wheel if you could get away with it.

Democracy is an ancient institution. Not only Athens but many city-states in the classical world practiced it -- not only Greek but Phoenician and Etruscan cities used it. The oldest democracy is thought to be Vaishali in the Indus Valley, during the 6th century BC. Across northern Europe and Asia, democracy in some form existed among many tribes. Viking groups often practiced democracy, including the Commonwealth of Iceland, founded explicitly as a democracy in 930 AD. Most European nations had some form of Parliament from the late middle ages on. Although the effectiveness of those early assemblies was spotty, England definitely had a dominant Parliament by the time of the Glorious Revolution in the late 1600s.

American democracy began like most others, restricted to landholding men only. It was later broadened to landless men, and still later to women and minorities, but European nations were broadening their electorates during the same time. Against the backdrop of the Age of Enlightenment, people everywhere came to much the same conclusions around roughly the same time.

The bicameral congress was copied from the bicameral Parliament of England, and almost all of the American Bill of Rights was cribbed from the English Bill of Rights.

Nothing unique about you fellows except your extraordinary egos.

[saxitoxin]

btw: I voted early in VA, around the start of this month. I miss seeing many folks at the polls on THE election day, but early voting is convenient and I avoid long lines. That is the trade-off.

I voted yesterday with no drunken fanfare, unlike the days of the ancien régime. ↓

In 1758, Washington again stood for election to the House of Burgesses. Washington's campaign was managed by Colonel James Wood, who procured 160 gallons of alcoholic drinks and distributed them gratis to 391 voters in the county. Washington won the election with more than 39-percent of the vote. Thomas Bryan Martin won Frederick County's other house seat; he was the nephew of the Lord Fairfax of Cameron, governor of Virginia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral ... Washington

[jusplay4fun]

Voting only included, men with property.

[b][i][spoiler]But you are always right and others are liars and/or biased.

I said that.

the USA started with men only voters

But I guess you missed that part.

[jusplay4fun]

Voted this morning. While standing in line thought about this wonderful tradition (1788 to present) we have of voting in the USA.

Many forget that this form of Democracy, basically started in the USA, is a precious thing and needs to be protected, appreciated, and discussed. Take "true" Democracy for the Greeks: men only

Lol, you guys make me laugh. You'd claim an American first invented the wheel if you could get away with it.

Democracy is an ancient institution. Not only Athens but many city-states in the classical world practiced it -- not only Greek but Phoenician and Etruscan cities used it. The oldest democracy is thought to be Vaishali in the Indus Valley, during the 6th century BC. Across northern Europe and Asia, democracy in some form existed among many tribes. Viking groups often practiced democracy, including the Commonwealth of Iceland, founded explicitly as a democracy in 930 AD. Most European nations had some form of Parliament from the late middle ages on. Although the effectiveness of those early assemblies was spotty, England definitely had a dominant Parliament by the time of the Glorious Revolution in the late 1600s.

American democracy began like most others, restricted to landholding men only. It was later broadened to landless men, and still later to women and minorities, but European nations were broadening their electorates during the same time. Against the backdrop of the Age of Enlightenment, people everywhere came to much the same conclusions around roughly the same time.

The bicameral congress was copied from the bicameral Parliament of England, and almost all of the American Bill of Rights was cribbed from the English Bill of Rights.

Nothing unique about you fellows except your extraordinary egos.

There is no claim that The American Experiment in Democracy was not inspired on ideas from other nations and peoples. But the English Bill of Rights is not Democracy, NOT when the UN-Elected King (or Queen), is the Head of State. That way American Democracy is rather UNIQUE, I would argue. And the fact that the US Experiment inspired and led to other nations getting rid of their monarchies to be replaced by a more Democratic form of government. There is uniqueness there, too.

And when did Canada become a free and independent nation?

btw:

The Bill of Rights 1689 (sometimes known as the Bill of Rights 1688)[1] is an Act of the Parliament of England that set out certain basic civil rights and changed the succession to the English Crown. It remains a crucial statute in English constitutional law.

Largely based on the ideas of political theorist John Locke,[3] the Bill sets out a constitutional requirement for the Crown to seek the consent of the people as represented in Parliament.[4][5] As well as setting limits on the powers of the monarch, it established the rights of Parliament, including regular parliaments, free elections, and parliamentary privilege.[6] It also listed individual rights, including the prohibition of cruel and unusual punishment and the right not to pay taxes levied without the approval of Parliament. Finally, it described and condemned several misdeeds of James II of England.[4]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_of_Rights_1689

[ConfederateSS]

---------I'm going with Duk, Americans think they invented everything....
--------- The most sad thing is.... Jp4fun used that dumb ass phrase....The American Experiment...

---------- AMERICA IS NOT AN EXPERIMENT ........We saved the World in WW1 and WW2.... AMERICA IS JUST AMERICA PLAIN AND SIMPLE...... Experiment comes from , the School System preaching garbage.......The Real Experiment in Democracy, took place in Ancient Greece...Sputtered out...The faintness of it... Floated here and there....Until some Old Wigg wearing, traitors to The British Empire, tried their form of it...THEY PERFECTED IT...As far as voting goes...But with new technology... American Democracy will fade in time...Just like Ancient Greece....The 2020 A.D. Election, is a perfect example...Of what is to come, maybe not this year...There are already people with bags collecting ballots, at drop boxes.... Standing right next to the drop box, telling people, go ahead, just put it in here(the bag)....I am not saying that, it is on Tik Tok...... ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)...

[Votanic]

---------I'm going with Duk, Americans think they invented everything....
--------- The most sad thing is.... Jp4fun used that dumb ass phrase....The American Experiment...

---------- AMERICA IS NOT AN EXPERIMENT ........We saved the World in WW1 and WW2.... AMERICA IS JUST AMERICA PLAIN AND SIMPLE...... Experiment comes from , the School System preaching garbage.......The Real Experiment in Democracy, took place in Ancient Greece...Sputtered out...The faintness of it... Floated here and there....Until some Old Wigg wearing, traitors to The British Empire, tried their form of it...THEY PERFECTED IT...As far as voting goes...But with new technology... American Democracy will fade in time...Just like Ancient Greece....The 2020 A.D. Election, is a perfect example...Of what is to come, maybe not this year...There are already people with bags collecting ballots, at drop boxes.... Standing right next to the drop box, telling people, go ahead, just put it in here(the bag)....I am not saying that, it is on Tik Tok...... ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)...

Whenever and wherever strong leadership is lacking, a sad decline into democracy is sure to follow.

[jusplay4fun]

---------I'm going with Duk, Americans think they invented everything....
--------- The most sad thing is.... Jp4fun used that dumb ass phrase....The American Experiment...

---------- AMERICA IS NOT AN EXPERIMENT ........We saved the World in WW1 and WW2.... AMERICA IS JUST AMERICA PLAIN AND SIMPLE...... Experiment comes from , the School System preaching garbage.......The Real Experiment in Democracy, took place in Ancient Greece...Sputtered out...The faintness of it... Floated here and there....Until some Old Wigg wearing, traitors to The British Empire, tried their form of it...THEY PERFECTED IT...As far as voting goes...But with new technology... American Democracy will fade in time...Just like Ancient Greece....The 2020 A.D. Election, is a perfect example...Of what is to come, maybe not this year...There are already people with bags collecting ballots, at drop boxes.... Standing right next to the drop box, telling people, go ahead, just put it in here(the bag)....I am not saying that, it is on Tik Tok...[/size]... ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)...

You are CRYING because I use the word "experiment"? really? you?

It was AN EXPERIMENT, early on, under the Articles of Confederation (a FAILED experiment, from which we LEARNED). And under the Constitution, that Democracy as a form of Government, without a Monarchy, got stronger. As the USA progressed, we better understood how to form a more Perfect Union.

SO ALL the credit goes ONLY the Ancient Greeks and Brits, at some point? I guess you forgot about your previously cited Iroquois Confederacy, and Duk's cited Iceland EXPERIMENT.

And you cite Tik-Tok as a legitimate source? REALLY?

ALL PRETTY SAD, ConfedSS. I expect better from someone knowledgeable of History.