The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump

[mookiemcgee]

Think thats not true Mookie, its his suit.....
As beautiful as it would be.

Or maybe JD Vance has been telling him to use protecting when 'stepping out' on his Mar-a-lago couch.

[Votanic]

Fox news using a pad to keep their white couch clean and free of Trumpy-poopy stains.

Meanwhile, Mooky repeatedly advertises his obsession about Trumps digestive excretions, with endless unsavory gossip and inuendo.
Typical Democrat perversity on full display. Now we all know way too much about the mook's Freudian sex-predilictions....

[saxitoxin]

SAXI'S MEGA MAGA ELECTION UPDATE 1-B

SAXI'S MEGA MAGA ELECTION UPDATE

However, if Mamala wins swing states in which she's currently losing by less than one point (all except Arizona and North Carolina), the election would resolve thusly.

This morning's tranche of polls results in the above calculation changing slightly. Three new polls in Georgia (TIPP, Trump +1; East Carolina University, Trump +3; Quinnipiac, Trump +6) has pushed Trump's 30-day average above a one point difference (Trump +1.1). No other changes in the remaining six states.

Ergo, in the above scenario -- i.e. Mamala wins the states she's currently losing in but by less than one point, while Trump wins the states Mamala is currently losing in by more than one point -- this would now be the distribution of votes.



Meanwhile, in the Senate ...

If every Senate election goes to the current polling front-runner, the distribution of Senate seats will look like this. This seems like it's pretty locked now with only two wild cards:

- The GOP can push it to 52 if they get Ohio which they're only trailing the Democrat by 0.6 points in
- The Democrats can push it to a 50-50 tie if they hold Ohio and the independent candidate Osborne wins Nebraska and caucuses with the Democrats, all of which are within the realm of likelihood (he's currently campaigning on a promise he won't caucus with the Democrats, but who knows if he'll hold to that)

Lifting up the sewer grate to the House ...

The Democrats currently have a generic candidate polling lead of 0.9%. However, over the last 10 elections, the generic ballot has over-predicted Democratic numbers by +1.1. So this is (probably) almost precisely a 50/50 split if the election were held today.

[saxitoxin]

But what's happening in Arizona? Trump is crushing Mamala for the Copper State's electoral votes, but Ruben Gallego is destroying Kari Lake in the race for Senate.

Either one set of polls are consistently and unerringly off, or people are planning to big time ticket-split: given the choice between Trump and Mamala, they're splitting the difference and picking Castrati Trump (Trump with a hostile Senate); or, they want "a little bit of crazy" but not "wall to wall crazy."

[mookiemcgee]

But what's happening in Arizona? Trump is crushing Mamala for the Copper State's electoral votes, but Ruben Gallego is destroying Kari Lake in the race for Senate.

Either one set of polls are consistently and unerringly off, or people are planning to big time ticket-split: given the choice between Trump and Mamala, they're splitting the difference and picking Castrati Trump (Trump with a hostile Senate); or, they want "a little bit of crazy" but not "wall to wall crazy."

Didn't Kari Lake already lose once? I can't imagine her image/polling numbers improved since her last loss have they?

[saxitoxin]

But what's happening in Arizona? Trump is crushing Mamala for the Copper State's electoral votes, but Ruben Gallego is destroying Kari Lake in the race for Senate.

Either one set of polls are consistently and unerringly off, or people are planning to big time ticket-split: given the choice between Trump and Mamala, they're splitting the difference and picking Castrati Trump (Trump with a hostile Senate); or, they want "a little bit of crazy" but not "wall to wall crazy."

Didn't Kari Lake already lose once? I can't imagine her image/polling numbers improved since her last loss have they?

Seem to have cratered. She lost for governor by 0.5% in 2022 but is now polling down by 5-6%.

[mookiemcgee]

But what's happening in Arizona? Trump is crushing Mamala for the Copper State's electoral votes, but Ruben Gallego is destroying Kari Lake in the race for Senate.

Either one set of polls are consistently and unerringly off, or people are planning to big time ticket-split: given the choice between Trump and Mamala, they're splitting the difference and picking Castrati Trump (Trump with a hostile Senate); or, they want "a little bit of crazy" but not "wall to wall crazy."

Didn't Kari Lake already lose once? I can't imagine her image/polling numbers improved since her last loss have they?

Seem to have cratered. She lost for governor by 0.5% in 2022 but is now polling down by 5-6%.

Whats you take on Ted Cruz spot?

Keep seeing posts trying to suggest his opponent has a shot, but I refuse to believe its as close as is being suggested.

[HitRed]

That Republican guys in sports Ad is everywhere in Texas. Allred is on the defense and is spending big Ad dollars trying to explain his vote.

[saxitoxin]

That Republican guys in sports Ad is everywhere in Texas. Allred is on the defense and is spending big Ad dollars trying to explain his vote.

Wow that's a great ad, I hadn't seen that.

The Democrats always waste gajillions chasing the dream of Texas and then get decapitated in the home stretch. At the same time I feel like these Cruz elections are closer than they should be. He just has a very unlikable face and shrill, off-putting voice. The beard helped a little. I hope this is his last campaign and a better Republican candidate - someone with a square jaw, a great hairline, and good baritone voice - takes the seat so we don't constantly have these nail-biters (and not Prescott).

[saxitoxin]

Wow - Tim Walz just told a crowd in North Carolina that his mother can't afford to feed herself until her social security check arrives each month.

As Governor of Minnesota, Walz makes $127,629 with free housing and transportation. And most Minnesota first ladies have held full-time jobs, Gwen is unique in that she quit to be a professional spouse.

He's not a tycoon by any stretch of the imagination, but he has enough (especially if his wife got a job, as is customary) that he can throw his own mother a couple hundred bucks each month if she's literally at risk of starvation. Also, the Minnesota's governor's residence has nine bedrooms, plus he gets a country retreat. Why won't he let her stay at the house or the country retreat if she's on the verge of destitution?

[Votanic]

Wow - Tim Walz just told a crowd in North Carolina that his mother can't afford to feed herself until her social security check arrives each month.

As Governor of Minnesota, Walz makes $127,629 with free housing and transportation. And most Minnesota first ladies have held full-time jobs, Gwen is unique in that she quit to be a professional spouse.

He's not a tycoon by any stretch of the imagination, but he has enough (especially if his wife got a job, as is customary) that he can throw his own mother a couple hundred bucks each month if she's literally at risk of starvation. Also, the Minnesota's governor's residence has nine bedrooms, plus he gets a country retreat. Why won't he let her stay at the house or the country retreat if she's on the verge of destitution?

Nanny State should be paying, not Walz.
And leave Missus Wlaz alone, Heck, If I were her, I'd totally have a separate bedroom suite in an separate wing of the mansion and spend all day going to catered events and writing off clothes as business expenses. Her big mistake, was not shmoozing to establish a Real Housewife franchise in St. Paul, with herself as the queen-bee wife, OC.
If she'd done that, she could have nabbed the VP slot for herself, ...and then big D-ed (divorced) the little D (Walz).

That's how politics really works.

[saxitoxin]

TBF it sucks to be a Minnesotan - Walz as governor just moves the dial from 10 to 11 --

[Votanic]

[YouTube][/YouTube]

TBF it sucks to be a Minnesotan - Walz as governor just moves the dial from 10 to 11 --

Too many lakes?
Helpful hack: Objiwa transitioning begins with a diet rich in salmon, acorns, and temperate berry-type fruits (No goji!, No açai!)...
Overall, this video clip seems on 'Target', ...extremely on 'Target'.

Here is another Minnesotan Anal-ysis Vid (Did Not Watch).


Next poster must comment on this video and then post another to chain.

Ultimate subversive intention is to force transfer of all political threads to Forum Games.

[jusplay4fun]

On a pragmatic note, the number of pages in this thread (64) passed that of Israel (63) in the past few days, as the US Election nears on November 5.

Sadly, the conflicts Israel has with its neighbors will continue long after 2024.

[ConfederateSS]

On a pragmatic note, the number of pages in this thread (64) passed that of Israel (63) in the past few days, as the US Election nears on November 5.

Sadly, the conflicts Israel has with its neighbors will continue long after 2024.

---------------What is more sad.... Pathetic American College students...Think them holding, protests ,others marching will end it... .......The Fighting has been ongoing for 4,472 their years(our years 3,337)... Starting when The Israelis left Egypt in 2448 B.C...their date..(our years 1313 B.C.)...On their own Manifest Destiny, of the Middle East....GOD wants them to have the land.....The same way....GOD wanted America (USA) to go from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean... ... ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)...

[jusplay4fun]

One can feel the seismic shift:

Electoral College Map Projector Flips All Battleground States to Donald Trump

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/electoral-college-map-projector-flips-all-battleground-states-to-donald-trump/ar-AA1svmXx?ocid=winp2fptaskbar&cvid=cd05bdb4c18948b58c02a316bf45e32f&ei=26

Newsweek
Donald Trump Flips Wisconsin In New Poll
Former President Donald Trump is winning in every battleground state, according to a new Electoral College map projection.

RealClearPolitics' polling tracker shows that, with no toss-up states, Trump is set to claim all seven swing states. It comes after Wisconsin, which Vice President Kamala Harris had previously been leading since the beginning of August, flipped Republican, with the former president now 0.1 points ahead.

Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania also flipped in favor of Trump in the past two weeks, with the former president 0.5 points ahead in Nevada and Pennsylvania and 0.9 points ahead in Michigan, per the tracker.

Trump had already been in the lead in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina since at least September. He is currently between 0.9 and 1.4 points ahead in all three of these states.

[saxitoxin]

Ralph Nader on point, as usual.



Glenn Greenwald on point, as usual.

[saxitoxin]

Amer Ghalib, a registered Democrat and the Mayor of Hamtramck, Michigan -- the only Muslim-run city in the U.S.-- has announced he is endorsing Donald Trump over Holocaust Harris.

As Al-Jazeera reports, Hamtramck was a former Polish ethnic enclave before the Poles were run-out and replaced by Arabs (improvement) and Bangladeshis (meh...). And now it's the center of the resistance to Holocaust Harris.

The mayor of the only city in the United States with an all-Muslim government has endorsed former President Donald Trump for November’s presidential election. Amer Ghalib, who leads the city of Hamtramck in the crucial battleground state of Michigan, said on Sunday that the Republican candidate is a “man of principles” and “the right choice”, despite their disagreements on some issues.

Muslim-American anger over the Biden administration’s support for Israel’s war on Gaza has become a concern for Democrats as they face razor-thin races in the battleground states.

In a poll released by the Council on American-Islamic Relations in August, just 12 percent of Muslim voters in Michigan expressed support for Harris, with 18 percent backing Trump and 40 percent supporting the Green Party’s Jill Stein.



https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/2 ... rses-trump

[saxitoxin]

A new tranche of state polls dropped today. Using the previous criteria (Mamala wins those of the seven swing states she's currently behind by less than 1 point in, and loses those in which she's currently behind by more than 1 point), here is the new map ---



In three days, this criteria has gone from Mamala winning with 292, to winning with 276, to losing with 261. Things are slipping away from Mamala but it's still too close to call and the old sow could still pull it out.

If, however, Trump wins each of the seven swing states in which he's polling ahead (all of them), then the election resolves thus, making it the biggest GOP victory in nearly 40 years, though this seems very unlikely with all the polls being within the MOE --

[Votanic]

Ralph Nader on point, as usual.



Glenn Greenwald on point, as usual.

Who is this dehumanizing-language-using Annie Applebaum, and why is The Atlantic giving her a platform for HATE!!!!

[jusplay4fun]

I have noticed that most of the sound bites from the Kamala campaign are personal insults of Trump. I see this as a sign of desperation by the Democrats. That is ALL they have left to campaign, attack Trump personally, NOT his policies and not his record.

And, to me, Trump's sole conviction (in a civil trial), is personal attack. That does not mean that Trump is a felon. Most or ALL of the other trials and cases against Trump are not legitimate. They are political at their core. I documented that in another post months earlier and I have seen little response to that.

btw: Let me FOE pee-rat before I get into trouble.

[pmac666]

And, to me, Trump's sole conviction (in a civil trial), is personal attack. That does not mean that Trump is a felon.

Thats how much they know.... and thats why they are "unbiased" trumptards.

[Pack Rat]

Poor Trump is receiving personal insults??? Now that's funny.

Trump and his band of cult followers are all victims! Somebody please return their white privilege!

His mental decline is apparent for everyone to see. Too bad Vice President Kamala Harris couldn't deliver another @ss kicking of Trump in a debate.


Here is Trump and his rambling word salad on Ukraine:

[saxitoxin]

Media are reporting the line outside a Lehigh, Pennsylvania McDonald's is now 8,000 people deep. Trump will be working a shift at the McDonald's today to draw attention to the fact Mamala lied about working at McDonald's.



UPDATE!!! Trump is now working the drive-thru window! Meanwhile, Mamala is spending Sunday at her luxury estate at One Observatory Circle, attended to by her servants.



Finally, for the first time this year, Trump is now the narrow favorite (52%) in the 538 forecast to win the election; Mamala had been the favorite every week prior.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/

[Pack Rat]

Trump Rallies are shrinking. While Vice President Harris Rallies are bigger and more exciting! Fox News is panicking when the Democrats are being interviewed by them.




Trump is humiliating himself and refuses to give interviews to 60 minutes and hides from any further debated.

Trump went to a dinner and looked and acted as a pathetic, feeble and demented guy.