The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump

[saxitoxin]

WOW - an absolutely devastating interview with Brett Baier tonight. Kamala is back to doing late night comedy shows and The View after this. No way she sits for another interview.

She tried to repeat her talking points and slogans and, when challenged, simply stammered and then went silent. It's like her brain shut down.

This wasn't even the worst one:

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1846706757151654073

[saxitoxin]

This was supposed to turn things around for her. She's not out yet - far from it - but there can't be another face plant like tonight if she expects to win.

[pmac666]

pee-rat and pee-mac forget that Trump at his PERCEIVED worse (by them and other leftist Wackos) is BETTER than Biden's best 99.9% of the time. Irrelevant argument by them. Move on to something more meaningful, like the Economy and inflation.

Its the economy stupid.
Well, let me help you again my context hating friend.
Inflation is down to normal levels and got outpaced by wages, unemployment too and the stock market hasnt crashed as the insurrectionist predicted, its on record highs. Some even say, with tears in their eyes, that this is a booming economy.
It goes its natural circle, reps leave it in shambles, dems fix it.
As seen for ages now.

Also, you may not like it but Biden got big legislation done in a tricky environment, unlike the rapist who couldnt get shit done (except his crappy taxcuts for Elmo and friends) even with house and senate. Infrastructure week and healthcare plan anyone?
They did a darn good job considering the chaos they inherited (best recovery in G7) and theres a reason why historians rank Biden in the first third of presidents. And the racist dead last. lol
And dont get me started about the felons tariffs and plans to get rid of the migrants.

But im glad your post came from an completly unbiased place.



Kamala did well at her Fox interview, remember when the rubes biggest concern was that she cant do interviews? Now shes rocking in the lions den.



Now im eagerly waiting for demented mango Mussolinis 2nd debate, his 60 minutes gig and his interview with Rachel Meadow.

[pmac666]

This was supposed to turn things around for her. She's not out yet - far from it - but there can't be another face plant like tonight if she expects to win.

Keep believing.
Nov 5 will be even better.

[pmac666]

WOW - an absolutely devastating interview with Brett Baier tonight. Kamala is back to doing late night comedy shows and The View after this. No way she sits for another interview.

She tried to repeat her talking points and slogans and, when challenged, simply stammered and then went silent. It's like her brain shut down.

This wasn't even the worst one:

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1846706757151654073

Well, atleast we got the unbiased opinion of Roseanne, Poso and Saxi. Im just missing Tweedle-maga.

[saxitoxin]

Brett Baer is now doing an after-show. He's saying the interview was supposed to have gone on longer but campaign staff started wildly waving for it to stop, things were going so poorly! Here's a clip of Brett explaining what went down at the end of the train wreck:

https://x.com/ColonelMark4/status/1846695139399381074

There seems to be a consensus that this was a total disaster for Kamala in a campaign where she can't afford a single slip-up.

Kamala Harris’s big Fox gamble did not pay off

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics ... r-verdict/

Patronising, stuttering, this was a disaster for Harris

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics ... r-verdict/

Social media explodes after Kamala Harris' 'total trainwreck' interview as supporters blast Fox News' Bret Baier for 'ambush'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... Baier.html

Kamala Harris and the problem with ceding the argument

https://www.vox.com/2024-elections/3782 ... mmigration

Word on the street is that Kamala has already canceled her Joe Rogan interview.

[saxitoxin]

WOW - Donald Trump, who is considered the Father of IVF, knocked it out of the park during the Univision town hall tonight! This was my FAV response. CLASS ACT.

Q: What are the three things you admire about Kamala?
A: Ability to survive, ability to maintain friendships, carries herself well

[pmac666]

Godness thx if she cancelled Rogan, nothing to gain there and theres really no need to give that shithead legitimation.

I think its superfunny that Trump goes from disaster (Coachella, what is he even doing there? Winning Cali? ) to fiasco (Pennsylvania opera townhall) to debacle (Chicago economic club) to beat down (the incredible Univision townhall tonight) in just 2 - 3 days and the rubes freaking out over a perfectly fine Kamala interview on not very friendly territory.
Thats as flat and desperate as your october surprises.

A shame shes no carnival barker and snakeoils man. Could have won over a few white dude bros. lol

[ConfederateSS]

-------So last month , in the TRUMP/Harris debate...The moderators fact checked, or tried to... TRUMP on crime stats... TRUMP said, crime/violent crime is way up(F.B.I. didn't include big major cities in their data)...Yet, the 2 moderators kept on fact checking TRUMP, your wrong Mr. TRUMP, crime is down...
----------WELL THE F.B.I. QUIETLY, HAVE REVISED THEIR CRIME/VIOLENT CRIME STATS... INCLUDING ALL MAJOR CITIES......
------------ TRUMP HAS BEEN PROVEN CORRECT ...Took long enough, The F.B.I., FAKE NEWS can't hide their lies anymore... CRIME/VIOLENT CRIME IS WAY UP ... Moderate that FAKE NEWS... ...... ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)...

[HitRed]

I don’t have much to offer you. - Kamala

[jusplay4fun]

More reason to DOUBT the data released by the Biden-Harris Administration.

First there is the often revised Economic data for jobs, inflation, and other Economic Indicators.

Now we have revised CRIME data for 2022 from the FBI and Crime actually went UP in 2022. The surprise may be that the revision was released this close to the Nov. Election. And we call Trump a liar.

Here is one of many articles that document this fact:

FBI quietly revised 2022 crime data to show violent offenses rose rather than dropped
By Ryan King
Published Oct. 16, 2024, 1:47 p.m. ET
https://nypost.com/2024/10/16/us-news/fbi-quietly-revised-2022-crime-data-to-show-violent-offenses-rose-rather-than-dropped/
one more:

David Mastio of the Kansas City Star reached out to the FBI’s press office, asking about RealClearInvestigations‘ scoop that the bureau quietly revised the 2022 crime statistics, “releasing new data that shows violent crime increased in 2022 by 4.5 percent. The new data includes thousands more murders, rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults.” As Mastio notes, in late September, USA Today reported that “violent crime in the United States declined for the third straight year in 2023,” citing those same FBI statistics.

(...)
Mastio concludes, “When bad news is false, agency press people go out of their way to make it crystal clear that reports are definitely not true. When bad news is true, agency press people spew a wall of fog and bury you under an avalanche of distractions or in this case, contradictions.”

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/new-reason-to-doubt-that-recent-fbi-crime-statistics-are-sufficiently-complete/

[jusplay4fun]

and more bad news for Kamala:

Harris’ closing argument: Desperation
Trying to make the election about Trump, not her own record

Desperate times call for desperate measures.

With just 19 days to go until Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris has adopted a frantic, discombobulated strategy of throwing everything she can find at Donald Trump to see if anything sticks.

It’s become obvious that with millions of hardworking Americans struggling to make ends meet due to inflation, illegal immigrants being prioritized over U.S. citizens and wars raging around the globe, Ms. Harris’ message of more of the same isn’t resonating with voters.

(...)
The latest Hail Mary from Ms. Harris and her advisers is that former President Donald Trump isn’t as sharp as he used to be. First, few believe this. Mr. Trump is traveling across the country, keeping a schedule that would exhaust a man half his age. He’s constantly in motion, hides from no one and is probably the most accessible candidate we’ve ever seen.

Nothing is more refreshing — or American — than a candidate who will answer any question on any subject at any time from anyone. That’s Mr. Trump in a nutshell.

Second, this attack from the same people who ignored President Biden’s cognitive decline for almost four years is beyond the pale.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/oct/17/harris-closing-argument-desperation/

[Pack Rat]

Great long tales!

[saxitoxin]

SAXI'S MEGA MAGA ELECTION UPDATE

POLLING OUTLOOK

Trump is currently leading in the RCP polling average in all seven swing states, however, in all seven it's by razor thin margins. If he actually wins the seven battlegrounds he's leading in, the election would resolve like this.



However, if Mamala wins swing states in which she's currently losing by less than one point (all except Arizona and North Carolina), the election would resolve thusly.



HISTORICAL COMPARISONS

- Mamala is currently leading Trump by 1.5 points in aggregate national polling.

- On October 17, 2024, Hillary Clinton was leading Trump by 7.0 points in aggregate national polling and LOST.
- On October 17, 2024, Joe Biden was leading Trump by 9.0 points in aggregate national polling and WON.

PROGNOSTICATORS

-Stanley Druckenmiller says stock market predicts Trump win. "Stanley Druckenmiller said Wednesday that the market is “very convinced” of an election victory for former President Trump. “I must say, in the last 12 days, the market and the inside of the market, is very convinced Trump is going to win,” Druckenmiller said in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Sonali Basak. “You can see it in the bank stocks, you can see it in crypto, you can even see it in DJT, his social media company.” Druckenmiller said he cannot “see” himself “voting for either” Harris or Trump in his Bloomberg interview."

-24cast.org predicts Mamala win: 24cast.org, run by students at Brown University, gives Harris a 74% chance of victory if the election were held today.

-The Economist predicts Mamala win: The Economist gives Harris a 54% chance of winning if the election were held today.

-S&P 500 predicts Mamala win: In 10 of the last 11 elections, the incumbent party wins if the S&P 500 is higher than it was 90 days before the election. Things are currently trending toward Harris.

-Betting market predicts Trump win: In 10 of the last 11 elections, the betting markets have accurately predicted the winner of the election. Polymarket, the largest U.S. politics betting market, is currently giving Trump nearly 2:1 odds.

-The Hill predicts it's a Toss-Up: The Hill gives 50/50 odds to Trump/Mamala as of today.

-Nate Silver predicts it's a Toss-Up: Nate Silver gives Trump a 50.2% chance of winning as of today.

-538 predicts a Toss-Up: 538 gives Mamala a 52% chance of winning as of today.

[pmac666]

and more bad news for Kamala:

Harris’ closing argument: Desperation
Trying to make the election about Trump, not her own record

Desperate times call for desperate measures.

With just 19 days to go until Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris has adopted a frantic, discombobulated strategy of throwing everything she can find at Donald Trump to see if anything sticks.

It’s become obvious that with millions of hardworking Americans struggling to make ends meet due to inflation, illegal immigrants being prioritized over U.S. citizens and wars raging around the globe, Ms. Harris’ message of more of the same isn’t resonating with voters.

(...)
The latest Hail Mary from Ms. Harris and her advisers is that former President Donald Trump isn’t as sharp as he used to be. First, few believe this. Mr. Trump is traveling across the country, keeping a schedule that would exhaust a man half his age. He’s constantly in motion, hides from no one and is probably the most accessible candidate we’ve ever seen.

Nothing is more refreshing — or American — than a candidate who will answer any question on any subject at any time from anyone. That’s Mr. Trump in a nutshell.

Second, this attack from the same people who ignored President Biden’s cognitive decline for almost four years is beyond the pale.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/oct/17/harris-closing-argument-desperation/

Ah a totally unbiased opinion piece by Mr Bossie in the Washington TIMES.

David Norman Bossie (born November 1, 1965) is an American political activist. Since 2000, he has been president and chairman of conservative advocacy group Citizens United and in 2016, Bossie was the deputy campaign manager to the Donald Trump presidential campaign.

This will end her now for sure.

[mookiemcgee]

SAXI'S ELECTION UPDATE

Trump is currently leading in the RCP polling average in all seven swing states, however, in all seven it's by razor thin margins. If he actually wins the seven battlegrounds he's leading in, the election would resolve like this.



However, if Mamala wins swing states in which she's currently losing by less than one point (all except Arizona and North Carolina), the election would resolve thusly.

Are you making any polymarket bets? I'm basically resolved that it will either be Trump wins 281-257 (24 EC vote margin), Kamala wins by even more narrow 276-262 (14 EC vote margin)... the only difference here is which way PA goes with Kamala winning NV, WI, MI, and Trump winning NC, GA, AZ.

or 3rd option is runaway kamala victory, I just don't see a runaway Trump victory as likely

So I'd basically bet all three of these options as like:
Dems by 5-14 = 11 to 1 right now (10% of my betting amount)
Reps by 15-34 = 12.5 to 1 right now (20% of my betting amount)
Kamala wins EC by any margin = 2.6 to 1 right now (70% of my betting amount)

I only get a little nervous about doing this because of some black swan event like one of them dying, or another coup attempt that would somehow invalidate the results. If I'm just straight up wrong and don't win I can live with it because I think I'm getting good value with this coverage.

P.S. FWIW polymarket was 50-50 a couple weeks ago until some French whale bet 25m on trump winning the EC that skewed the odds to almost 2:1. Kamala is still around 2:1 to win the popular vote which wouldn't be a great payout but seems like a pretty safe bet to make as you don't hear virtually anyone predicting he would win the pop vote.

[saxitoxin]

Are you making any polymarket bets?

I was tempted to but I try to avoid betting on things I actually want to see happen because emotion would cloud my judgment. However, I like the spread you're betting.

FWIW polymarket was 50-50 a couple weeks ago until some French whale bet 25m on trump winning the EC that skewed the odds to almost 2:1.

On the one hand, whale bets like this deter my confidence in Polymarket because I'm inclined to think these are just bets from partisan hopefuls.

On the other hand, if you're betting $25 million you almost certainly have a private team of statisticians working on contract and are doing things like taking private polls, macro algorithmic modeling, etc. It's not like he's just walking into Circus Circus and yelling "put it on red!"

[pmac666]

SAXI'S ELECTION UPDATE

Trump is currently leading in the RCP polling average in all seven swing states, however, in all seven it's by razor thin margins. If he actually wins the seven battlegrounds he's leading in, the election would resolve like this.



However, if Mamala wins swing states in which she's currently losing by less than one point (all except Arizona and North Carolina), the election would resolve thusly.

Are you making any polymarket bets? I'm basically resolved that it will either be Trump wins 281-257 (24 EC vote margin), Kamala wins by even more narrow 276-262 (14 EC vote margin)... the only difference here is which way PA goes with Kamala winning NV, WI, MI, and Trump winning NC, GA, AZ.

or 3rd option is runaway kamala victory, I just don't see a runaway Trump victory as likely

So I'd basically bet all three of these options as like:
Dems by 5-14 = 11 to 1 right now (10% of my betting amount)
Reps by 15-34 = 12.5 to 1 right now (20% of my betting amount)
Kamala wins EC by any margin = 2.6 to 1 right now (70% of my betting amount)

I only get a little nervous about doing this because of some black swan event like one of them dying, or another coup attempt that would somehow invalidate the results. If I'm just straight up wrong and don't win I can live with it because I think I'm getting good value with this coverage.

P.S. FWIW polymarket was 50-50 a couple weeks ago until some French whale bet 25m on trump winning the EC that skewed the odds to almost 2:1. Kamala is still around 2:1 to win the popular vote which wouldn't be a great payout but seems like a pretty safe bet to make as you don't hear virtually anyone predicting he would win the pop vote.

Please.... Polymarket is a Thiel owned betting site for the crypto bros and it should tell you the story if someone bangs 25 millis on it to fk with the numbers.
If youre half smart you bet a good amount on a Kamala electoral win there and forget all the other options.
Thats still a brilliant offer with the + money (i got her big with +200 the day after the swap).
You get the + money and a favourite......whats not to like?

[mookiemcgee]

It's kind of crazy how much volume is on polymarket this cycle, and you never really know why someone is betting like this... it could be pure arbitrage. They might have bet Dems win EC 3-4 months ago when betting dems was like 4/5:1right around the first Biden debate, and now is betting Trump as like insurance/hedge (instead of taking 5:1 gamble, they can basically de-risk and guarantee smaller amount of profit). Or they could have insider info, or could just be a very wealthy crypto degen who just likes Trump, or maybe they are insuring against some real world fear like if trump gets elected the tarrifs could destroy their RL business (this one is a bit far fetched but you never know).

It's fun to speculate about though!!!

[pmac666]

It's kind of crazy how much volume is on polymarket this cycle, and you never really know why someone is betting like this... it could be pure arbitrage. They might have bet Dems win EC 3-4 months ago when betting dems was like 4/5:1right around the first Biden debate, and now is betting Trump as like insurance/hedge (instead of taking 5:1 gamble, they can basically de-risk and guarantee smaller amount of profit). Or they could have insider info, or could just be a very wealthy crypto degen who just likes Trump, or maybe they are insuring against some real world fear like if trump gets elected the tarrifs could destroy their RL business (this one is a bit far fetched but you never know).

It's fun to speculate about though!!!

Its option 2, 100%.

[mookiemcgee]

Polymarket isn't Thiel owned. One of his venture firms only recently participated in a funding round, but so did Vitalik 'Big Dick' Buterin and series of other big crypto figures who are either apolitical or left leaning.

It also doesn't matter who owns it because humans aren't involved in the settlement layer, that's the whole fucking point and why it's gained almost $2billion in volume for political bets this cycle.

[saxitoxin]

Please.... Polymarket is a Thiel owned betting site

Yes, that's the talking point Mamala's campaign put out last month.

Like many political talking points, it contains a kernel of truth wrapped in rather outlandish exaggeration.

- Peter Thiel does not own Polymarket.

-Founder's Fund, of which Thiel is one of 13 partners, took a $45 MM Series B stake in Polymarket (it's one of several investors).

-I was listening to Mike Solana's podcast last week in which he said (and I have no idea if this is true or not) that Thiel was not even in the Polymarket pitch meeting, and is not the principal partner on the Polymarket investment (Napoleon Ta is).

Just by application of Occam's Razor it seems like spending $45 million on Trump's campaign would be more effective than buying a round of Series B funding in a betting company and then using that to secretly strongarm the owners of the company to engage in a criminal conspiracy to commit fraud by falsifying the betting odds all just to very mildly troll Kamala Harris. But who knows, there's are lots of crazy conspiracy theories out there and maybe this one is true.

[pmac666]

Polymarket doesnt even allign with the most conservative polls out there, the ones that gave the illusion of a red wave in 22.
They just play the same game again.
From a bettors perspective betting anything else than a Kamala electoral win at that price would be insanity.

[saxitoxin]

or maybe they are insuring against some real world fear like if trump gets elected the tarrifs could destroy their RL business (this one is a bit far fetched but you never know)

That actually seems not that unreasonable.

[pmac666]

Polymarket isn't Thiel owned. One of his venture firms only recently participated in a funding round, but so did Vitalik 'Big Dick' Buterin and series of other big crypto figures who are either apolitical or left leaning.

It also doesn't matter who owns it because humans aren't involved in the settlement layer, that's the whole fucking point and why it's gained almost $2billion in volume for political bets this cycle.

Ok, he only invested in it....
But the crypto bros are overwhelmingly trumpers and how often are trumpers right?
Exactly.