SaxiToxin - why were nearly every one of your links wrong earlier?The S&P 500 model, not poll - you have to predict the S&P 500 on a future date.
If you are using that model you need to include the Keys for White House Victory model, too. But like the S&P 500 model it is too early to tell, but currently favors Kamala Harris.
https://thehill.com/opinion/4812206-trump-harris-election-keys/I don't see that Kamala Harris HarrisX poll, that appears to be a poll of Biden still.
In the far-right I&I TIPP poll - In the head-to-head poll, 46% of all respondents answered “Kamala Harris,” and 45% answered “Donald Trump.” The margin of error in the poll is +/-2.9 percentage points, making the presidential race at this point too close to call, at least by the numbers.
RCP, you got right despite them using some biased polls - Harris.
24Cast is somewhat correct, but his polls seem a bit delayed. They have it as Donald Trump would have a 58% chance of winning the presidency. His #1 most likely outcome based on current polls has that Kamala Harris wins 287 electoral votes. (21% of the simulations.)
#2 Most Likely Outcome: Donald Trump wins 313 electoral votes.(19% of simulations)
And Saxi looked in the wrong place for the 538 prediction. That should be up soon, but meanwhile, 538 has: Good news, polling fans: 538 now has polling averages for the new presidential matchup between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. As of Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern, our average of national polls says Harris has the support of 45.0 percent of voters, while Trump garners 43.5 percent.
https://abcnews.go.com/538/harris-trump-tied-538s-new-polling-averages/story?id=112494481And they underestimate the no weirdos, and cat ladies, and Swifties for Kamala effect.
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