The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump

[mookiemcgee]

TRUMP-BACKED ABE HAMADEH WINS THE GOP PRIMARY FOR ARIZONA-8 TONIGHT!

He defeated the Silicon Valley-backed, Peter Thiel acolyte Blake Masters. SUCK IT, MCGEE!

Once he defeats the Rat in November, Hamadeh will become the first Muslim to sit in Congress as a Republican (and whose father was a Palestinian liberation partisan, to top it off). SUCK IT, AIPAC!

Didn't Trump endorse both of the GOP primary candidates? SUCK IT AZ OLYMPIANS!

[saxitoxin]

Didn't Trump endorse both of the GOP primary candidates?

He is truly a friend to all.

[ConfederateSS]

--------- BREAKING NEWS ...
---------- Biden's Senior Political Advisor Anita Dunn has left the Whitehouse to help Harris with her campaign...
---------- She and her husband, A Biden lawyer...Were the ones who helped out Biden to prepare for his debate with TRUMP...Which cost him his re-election run... ...Now they are helping Harris...
--------- A TRUMP LANDSLIDE...I am picturing one of those California Mud Slides you see in disaster movies...
--------- Thanks for the help Anita... ... ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)...

[jusplay4fun]

I have predicted this already, and I think this is still true, that this election, now Harris vs. Trump, will be very close and will likely depend on some 6-7 key Battleground states.

(I think those 6-7 states are PA, MI, OH, WI, GA, and I forget the #6. I looked this up and it may be that the list has changed slightly, and now includes Nevada, North Carolina, and Arizona; I did not see Ohio on that list.)

At least one poll shows that the races for the US Senate and House of Representives will also be close:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

[mookiemcgee]

I have predicted this already, and I think this is still true, that this election, now Harris vs. Trump, will be very close and will likely depend on some 6-7 key Battleground states.

(I think those 6-7 states are PA, MI, OH, WI, GA, and I forget the #6. I looked this up and it may be that the list has changed slightly, and now includes Nevada, North Carolina, and Arizona; I did not see Ohio on that list.)

At least one poll shows that the races for the US Senate and House of Representives will also be close:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

Yeah idk if Kamala really has a shot with a 'western strategy' that is being discussed and sort of hinges on her picking Mark Kelley. She might try it anyway, but I have serious doubts there is any world where she wins AZ this way (maybe NV, but I'm dubious).

I think she will take PA, MI, and probably WI. I think she will lose OH, AZ, NC, FL (idk why but people in the media are pretending she isn't DOA here). I think GA and NV are my person toss ups.

Allan Lichtman won't be making his prediction until after she picks a VP and the official nominations happens, but it sounds like he's still leaning towards the Dems winning in spite of bailing on Biden (which he kinda said would be a bad idea, and that Biden had it in the bag based on his '13 Keys'. Idk how he determines the 'incumbancy' key since there isn't one.

[Dukasaur]

I think today's stock market selloff might have been the tipping point that finally brings the recession into focus.

If so, it may be very rough on Biden for the remainder of his term, and by extension, rough on Harris.

It's too bad. The recession has been getting postponed for many years now, it really could have waited another six months.

[mookiemcgee]

i dunno man, if it didn't happen when interest rates were going up constantly, it's hard to see it happening any any sustained or damaging way now when inflation is coming down enough that they are likely to reduce rates. Time will tell, but we rarely see recessions happen in election years and with every indication being the next 12 months are bringing rate cuts it would come as a shock to me. Could totally happen though!

[jusplay4fun]

I am not sure about a possible recession; easier to predict is interest rates, which is tied to a possibility of a recession.

I see that interest rates are likely to come down, as set by the Fed in Sept. (or even Aug., or October) which could help the Democrats. I have not looked at lots of economic numbers in the past several weeks, but that is what I see in the "tea leaves." I do not see a recession in the next 6 months, based on my limited look at data. At least one source suggests that I may be wrong.

The S&P 500 has rallied in the first half of 2024 as investors cheer resilient earnings growth and anticipate that aggressive Fed rate cuts are just around the corner. However, the New York Fed's recession probability model suggests there is still a 55.8% chance of a U.S. recession sometime in the next 12 months

https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/recession-2024-what-to-watch-how-to-prepare#:~:text=The%20S%26P%20500%20has%20rallied,in%20the%20next%2012%20months.

One year out:

By May 2025, it is projected that there is a probability of 51.82 percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1239080/us-monthly-projected-recession-probability/#:~:text=By%20May%202025%2C%20it%20is,fall%20into%20another%20economic%20recession.

Hit Red looks at some economic numbers and perhaps he wants to add his input here.

I will look and then copy and paste:

More Fed Rate Cuts To Follow

Of course, market projections are contingent on a belief that fairly benign inflation data will continue to roll in. Powell said that further confidence that inflation is returning to the Fed’s 2% target will be needed before cutting rates, but that the “second quarter’s data has added to our confidence” and “more good data would further strengthen that confidence.”

FOMC projections from the June meeting called for one rate cut by year-end 2024 if the core PCE inflation rate reached 2.8% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2024. However, consensus projections are for core PCE inflation at 2.7% by then, and Morningstar’s forecast is 2.5%. (...)

Markets are now projecting three cuts in 2024, taking the federal-funds rate down to 4.50%-4.75% by December. Markets expect a further four cuts in 2025, taking the rate down to 3.50%-3.75% by the end of the year.

https://www.morningstar.com/economy/september-fed-rate-cut-looks-likely-then-what

When will mortgage interest rates go down?
Mortgage rates have already started to pull back, with the 30-year loan averaging 6.86 percent as of July 31, according to Bankrate’s weekly lender survey.

Still, rates might not fall as far as some homeowners hope, as forecasters previously baked in a September rate cut. In fourth quarter 2024 outlooks, Fannie Mae analysts anticipate 30-year rates at 6.7 percent, while the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts 6.6 percent. The National Association of Realtors projects 6.7 percent.

https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/mortgage-interest-rates-forecast/#when-will-rates-go-down

[jusplay4fun]

‘Failed The Community’: Indian-Americans Sound Off On Kamala Harris’ ‘Submerged’ Indian Heritage, Focus On Black ID

Indian-Americans are sounding off on Vice President Kamala Harris’ alleged attempts to downplay her Indian heritage in favor of her Jamaican side of the family.

Less than a week ago, as Harris entered the presidential race, the New York Times wrote that the vice president’s Indian heritage is “little advertised.” Harris, with an Indian mother and black Jamaican father, has long been touted as a historic figure breaking glass ceilings. But some Indian-Americans told the Caller they feel Harris’ Indian identity is highlighted only when it’s “convenient” for her.

“It appears now, as both a vice president and then subsequently, now as a presidential candidate, that she’s made the calculation and the party has made the calculation that her African-American background needs to be emphasized, and that she needs to really kind of lead with that identity in order to continue to secure the African-American vote across the country, which strongly identifies with the Democratic Party, and specifically tied to Joe Biden,” Suhail Khan, a conservative activist and former Bush administration official, told the Caller. “If you look at the 2020, election in the primary, Joe Biden outperformed Kamala Harris on every level, including with African-Americans.”

“While she might want to lean into her ethnic background when it is politically convenient to do so, the reality is that it does not matter. What matters are her policy positions, which would be a nightmare for most Americans and especially for the Indian-American community,” Akash Chougule, an Indian-American conservative commentator, told the Caller.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/failed-the-community-indian-americans-sound-off-on-kamala-harris-submerged-indian-heritage-focus-on-black-id/ar-BB1r38p5?ocid=winp2fptaskbar&cvid=e69e2aaf710a4d9c95749cb5c809a871&ei=15

[Pack Rat]

Is being mixed race...icky to you?

Oh, and now all blacks would of failed without DEI.

Echo Chamber of MAGA! It is all about losing white privilege and famous chant that we love to march to, "Jews will never replace us"!





Republicans are getting pretty bold with their fascism.

[Pack Rat]

Trump has helped blacks more than Lincoln!

[jusplay4fun]

Is being mixed race...icky to you?

NO, p-brat; totally FALSE. If you only know the TRUTH. Loser comment by a LOSER.

Oh, and now all blacks would of failed without DEI.

I Never said that, but KAMALA is a DEI hire. PERIOD. She has done little, except LIE about her record.

Echo Chamber of MAGA! It is all about losing white privilege and famous chant that we love to march to, "Jews will never replace us"!

MORE CRAP, by p-brat. Your insults fall apart, continuously, p-brat. GROW up and try some REAL REFUTATION.

Republicans are getting pretty bold with their fascism.[/b]

More LIES and obfuscation by the p-brat; this was almost not worth a response, but a good way to summarize the posts by the resident Brat-Rat.

[Pack Rat]

I find it downright funny how people can blindly follow a man who was given everything from Daddy, yet whine about someone who may or may not of given an opportunity to excel at school or at a job that use to be denied to minorities

To hear/read that everyone is lying or biased, but their man is a non-stop conveyor of lies.

The shouting from the peanut gallery that a candidate does nothing to stop the flood of illegal aliens, but their candidate called the Republicans in The House to reject the strongest Border Bill in history.

The hypocrisy is chilling and it's going to becoming deafening as we get closer to November. I'm sure most of you will know the drill after the elections...the election was rigged and stolen!

show

[jusplay4fun]

[b][i]I find it downright funny how people can blindly follow a man who was given everything from Daddy,

Two more LIES by the p-brat:

1) I do not BLINDLY follow Trump;

2) Donald Trump did not inherit EVERYTHING from his father. He did create wealth and jobs on his own. Donald Trump did get a head start in Real Estate, but MOST of the "Brand" is his creation.

The rest of p-brat's post is simply more silliness that does not deserve a response.

Let us move on the REAL NEWS: Kamala, who bragged about one year ago that BIdenomics is working, now has to explain the "Kamala Crash" of the Stock Market today and the stagnation of the US Economy. There were reports that Kamala claimed that this was caused by Trump, who has been OUT of Office for some 3.5 years.

Stock market news today: Global stock rout deepens as Dow plunges over 1,100 points, S&P 500, Nasdaq sink 3%

Wall Street's stock sell-off intensified in a major way Monday as concerns mounted over the health of the US economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell over 1,000 points. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) was crushed by more than 3.4%. The S&P 500's (^GSPC) losses cascaded nearly 3% in its worst day since 2022, capping its worst start to any month since 2002.

Wall Street's "fear gauge" — the CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) — touched its highest level since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, before retreating. Treasury yields fell, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) hovering near 3.8%. The global stock market rapidly sold off after Friday's lackluster US jobs report added to concerns about the economy

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-today-global-stock-rout-deepens-as-dow-plunges-over-1100-points-sp-500-nasdaq-sink-3-200046148.html



For those who want Kamala's words in PRINT, let's see what the Joe's White House said almost EXACTLY one year ago:

All that, ladies and gentlemen and everyone else — that is called “Bidenomics.” (Applause.) That is called Bidenomics, and we are very proud of Bidenomics.

And as today’s jobs numbers make clear: Bidenomics is working.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/08/04/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-highlighting-the-impacts-of-bidenomics-and-announcing-increasing-support-for-small-businesses/

More LIES and a BAD Spin Job by Kamala; no wonder p-brat likes her SO MUCH.

America’s robust post-pandemic job market is teetering on the brink after a lousy July hiring report in which the unemployment rate shot up to 4.3%, a three-year high.

The Federal Reserve now has egg on its face after it kept interest rates near a quarter-century high earlier this week. And for the everyday US consumer, economic pain could be coming down the pike as hiring slows — but lower interest rates for homes and credit cards could be on their way in just a few months.

The government’s latest jobs report on Friday fell way short of expectations: Employers added just 114,000 jobs in July, compared to the 175,000 gain economists estimated in a FactSet poll. 

US economy added just 114,000 jobs last month and unemployment rose to 4.3%
Paychecks are also in a slump: Wage growth, as measured by average hourly earnings, continued to decelerate in July, logging its weakest annual rate since May 2021.

By now, there’s ample evidence that the job market, a key driver of the US economy, has lost steam. A separate report earlier this week showed that job openings fell in June to the second-lowest level since March 2021. New applications for unemployment benefits, a proxy for layoffs, rose last week to the highest point in a year. Today’s US labor market looks way different from just two years ago when monthly payroll growth was on a tear and employers had a record 12.2 million job vacancies as the broader economy continued with its stunning ascent from pandemic depths.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/03/economy/what-julys-weaker-than-expected-jobs-report-means/index.html

The Bad News and the false narratives of the "Wonders" of Bidenomics continues to grow.

[Pack Rat]

Stock Market rising nicely today. Job market is still strong.

Trump has the worst job record of any modern President.

U.S. alliances are stronger now than ever!

The U.S. pumps more oil today, compared to any country on earth.

....and the Harris campaign are all giggles and filled with joy, while Trump is filled with hate and despair...

[saxitoxin]

I think today's stock market selloff might have been the tipping point that finally brings the recession into focus.

If so, it may be very rough on Biden for the remainder of his term, and by extension, rough on Harris.

It's too bad. The recession has been getting postponed for many years now, it really could have waited another six months.

Good point.

In 17 out of the last 20 elections, the incumbent party has always lost if the S&P 500 is down on October 31 from where it was on July 31 and won if it's up.

July 31 it was 5522 and today it's 5298. It doesn't have far to go to rebound, but it does need to rebound.

[jusplay4fun]

Stock Market rising nicely today. Job market is still strong.

Trump has the worst job record of any modern President.

U.S. alliances are stronger now than ever!

The U.S. pumps more oil today, compared to any country on earth.

....and the Harris campaign are all giggles and filled with joy, while Trump is filled with hate and despair...

More silliness by p-brat. Is he smoking too much and has a warped sense of REALITY???????

[Pack Rat]

All that wasted hate will turn to tears and calls of stolen elections in November.

show

[jusplay4fun]

GOP vice presidential candidate JD Vance reacted to Vice President Kamala Harris picking Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her 2024 running mate, saying the former high school football coach is "far-left."

"He's a really far-left candidate. He's a really far-left governor, but the fact that Kamala Harris selected him, I think shows really, really poor judgment and that she doesn't have what it takes to be President of the United States," Vance said Tuesday on "Hannity."

Walz was chosen over Jewish Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro in the veepstakes race, a move Vance says shows Harris has "bent the knee to the far-left" of the Democratic Party.

"This decision, selecting Tim Walz, is another sign that she doesn't care what the American people think," Vance said. "She is only in this to obey the far-left radicals within her own party. It's a really shameful moment for Kamala Harris."

He added that he believes "antisemites" within Harris’ party drove the conversation over who should ultimately be given the running mate slot.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/kamala-harris-decision-to-bypass-josh-shapiro-shows-she-s-bent-the-knee-to-the-far-left-says-jd-vance/ar-AA1omkPE?ocid=BingNewsSerp

I heard someone say that one reason Kamala picked Walz is that she does not feel threatened by Walz. An "A" will pick another "A" person, while someone like Kamala, a "B" (at best) will pick a "C" because another "B" and certainly an "A" person will be viewed as a threat to the person "in-charge." We NOW have even more proof that Kamala is a light-weight; she did NOT earn the VP post, but is a weak DEI Hire. And she herself chose another political light-weight.

Kamala speaks with many cliches, showing that she is a light-weigt with limited intelligence. She uses word salad when she speaks off the teleprompter. (Kamala is almost as bad as Biden is in that regard.) Kamala giggles (or cackles) when she is nervous. Note her interview with Lester Holt when asked about her going to the US-Mexican border.

Kamala Harris’ response to border crisis: I haven’t ‘been to Europe’ either | New York Post

[saxitoxin]

Self-inflicted wound --

GOP breathes sigh of relief over Tim Walz pick as Harris VP nominee

Many Republicans expressed surprise and relief at the choice of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as Vice President Kamala Harris' running mate, readying renewed "radical" liberal attacks.

https://www.axios.com/2024/08/06/republ ... -president

As Governor, Dim Tim ordered tampons to be placed in boys bathrooms. For some reason his male supporters, like GaryDenton and Pack Rat, feel they need access to tampons. Weird.

[jusplay4fun]

Self-inflicted wound --

GOP breathes sigh of relief over Tim Walz pick as Harris VP nominee

Many Republicans expressed surprise and relief at the choice of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as Vice President Kamala Harris' running mate, readying renewed "radical" liberal attacks.

https://www.axios.com/2024/08/06/republ ... -president

As Governor, Dim Tim ordered tampons to be placed in boys bathrooms. For some reason his male supporters, like GaryDenton and Pack Rat, feel they need access to tampons. Weird.

Whatever you think of Saxi's posts and words, you have to give him credit for interesting (and often provocative) things, especially graphics, such as this one.

BTW: to advocate this POLICY shows how Liberal and WOKE (and STOOOOOPID) he and other (Mostly LIBERAL) Democrats are. To say that MALES mentrate is CRAZY (and dare I say WEIRD).

[Pack Rat]

Self-inflicted wound --

GOP breathes sigh of relief over Tim Walz pick as Harris VP nominee

Many Republicans expressed surprise and relief at the choice of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as Vice President Kamala Harris' running mate, readying renewed "radical" liberal attacks.

https://www.axios.com/2024/08/06/republ ... -president

As Governor, Dim Tim ordered tampons to be placed in boys bathrooms. For some reason his male supporters, like GaryDenton and Pack Rat, feel they need access to tampons. Weird.

Whatever you think of Saxi's posts and words, you have to give him credit for interesting (and often provocative) things, especially graphics, such as this one.

BTW: to advocate this POLICY shows how Liberal and WOKE (and STOOOOOPID) he and other (Mostly LIBERAL) Democrats are. To say that MALES mentrate is CRAZY (and dare I say WEIRD).

Such childish rants...

[saxitoxin]

Not a rant, a genuine question. As a male who doesn't use tampons, I want to learn why Democrat men need access to tampons. Since you support Dim Tim, who ordered tampons be placed in boys bathrooms, you can help us understand the need to access tampons by you and your little friends.

[Pack Rat]

Trump latest text rant:

In his post on Tuesday, Trump hurled his typical rhetoric, including name-calling, as he targeted Harris, Biden and others: "What are the chances that Crooked Joe Biden, the WORST President in the history of the U.S., whose Presidency was Unconstitutionally STOLEN from him by Kamabla, Barrack HUSSEIN Obama, Crazy Nancy Pelosi, Shifty Adam Schiff, Cryin' Chuck Schumer, and others on the Lunatic Left, CRASHES the Democrat National Convention and tries to take back the Nomination, beginning with challenging me to another DEBATE."

Trump continued, "He feels that he made a historically tragic mistake by handing over the U.S. Presidency, a COUP, to the people in the World he most hates, and he wants it back, NOW!!!"

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-s ... on-1935550

Suggesting the President Biden will try to take back the Presidential nomination from Harris is weird.

Trump is running away from debating Harris and Vance is hiding behind Trump to avoid a debate with Walz. The Chicken Team of MAGA! Looks like Trump and Vance (if you can get him off the couch) will work on their speeches on how the election was stolen from them.

[saxitoxin]

That time of the month, Pack Rat? Tampon time?