Recession Watch

[HitRed]

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/fedfunds

There is a collation of when the last interest rate hike and when a recession starts.

Adjust the St. Louis Fed. chart 1985 to today. Use the slider.

Blue line is Federal Funds Rate

Grey areas are recessions.

The 1st is around 1989. Last interest rate hike to the recession started 15 months.

The 2nd is around 2000. Last interest rate hike to the recession started 9 months

The 3rd is around 2007. Last interest rate hike to the recession started 17 months

The 4th is around 2019. Last interest rate hike to the recession started 12 months

The 5th started Sept 2023. ?? months till recession.*

* if you use the 9 months, then we are already in recession but don’t know it.
* If you use the 17 months, then latest would be February 2025.

[Votanic]

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/fedfunds

There is a collation of when the interest rates stop being raised and when a recession starts.

Adjust chart 1985 to today. Use the slider.

Blue line is Federal Funds Rate

Grey areas are recessions.

The 1st leveling off around 1989 of interest rates to the recession started 15 months.

The 2nd leveling off around 2000 of interest rates to the recession started 9 months

The 3rd leveling off around 2007 of interest rates to the recession started 17 months

The 4th leveling off around 2019 of interest rates to the recession started 12 months

The 5th leveling off started Sept 2023. ?? months till recession.*

* if you use the 9 months, then we are already in recession but don’t know it.
* If you use the 17 months, then latest would be February 2025.

You should re-title this thread: Why recession may be worse than you think it is.

Actually, I'm envisioning a whole line of hack-job economics-themed Worse Than You Think It Is threads.

[HitRed]

It’s important.

[Pack Rat]

Stock Market hits new highs, wages are rising faster than inflation U.S. Dollar is strong and job openings are plentiful.


OMG! The sky is falling!

HitRed...why didn't you mentioned the most recent recession during the Trump administration?

[HitRed]

Stock Market hits new highs, wages are rising faster than inflation U.S. Dollar is strong and job openings are plentiful.


OMG! The sky is falling!

HitRed...why didn't you mentioned the most recent recession during the Trump administration?

It’s number 4 on the chart.

[jusplay4fun]

Stock Market hits new highs, wages are rising faster than inflation U.S. Dollar is strong and job openings are plentiful.


OMG! The sky is falling!

HitRed...why didn't you mentioned the most recent recession during the Trump administration?

It’s number 4 on the chart.

Again, proving that p-rat ignores the facts. OMG..!!

[Pack Rat]

What's the matter jusplay4MAGA, you got a chip on your shoulder son.

[Pack Rat]

Stock Market hits new highs, wages are rising faster than inflation U.S. Dollar is strong and job openings are plentiful.


OMG! The sky is falling!

HitRed...why didn't you mentioned the most recent recession during the Trump administration?

It’s number 4 on the chart.

But that recession wasn't due to interest rates being high.

[HitRed]

It was the pandemic, but interestingly if you look at the trend line between the four it fits in nicely.

[Pack Rat]

The only real correlation I see with the actual past recessions is that they all had Republican Presidents at the time.