Why inflation may be worse than you think it is

[pmac666]

Carlin didn't identify with any party. He hated the system. Lol.

He said Carlin was a lefty, not a dem. That 2 pair of shoes.

[Dukasaur]

Carlin didn't identify with any party. He hated the system. Lol.

He said Carlin was a lefty, not a dem. That 2 pair of shoes.

Still wrong, though.

Carlin was basically a nihilist. He didn't believe that any ideology could save us, left or right.

[pmac666]

Carlin didn't identify with any party. He hated the system. Lol.

He said Carlin was a lefty, not a dem. That 2 pair of shoes.

Still wrong, though.

Carlin was basically a nihilist. He didn't believe that any ideology could save us, left or right.

Idk, i only know very little of Carlin.
The point is tho, that a lefty doesnt necessarily need to be a dem....

[Votanic]

Carlin didn't identify with any party. He hated the system. Lol.

He said Carlin was a lefty, not a dem. That 2 pair of shoes.

Still wrong, though.

Carlin was basically a nihilist. He didn't believe that any ideology could save us, left or right.

Idk, i only know very little of Carlin.
The point is tho, that a lefty doesnt necessarily need to be a dem....

The real error is that when people start talking about being liberal in general terms, what they really are implying is something closer to Libertarianism (...or perhaps Nihilism).

The monstrosity that currently occupies the Left-wing in the US and some other Western countries is in no way Liberal or Libertarian, in that sense.
Nor is it in any real sense, 'Progressive', another common misnomer.

In truth, it's a hyper-controlling and dishonestly manipulative form of Big Brother/Deep State Fascism/Totalitarianism.

Now you know.

[DirtyDishSoap]

Carlin would be rolling in his grave right now if he saw the state of things currently.

[Dukasaur]

Carlin didn't identify with any party. He hated the system. Lol.

He said Carlin was a lefty, not a dem. That 2 pair of shoes.

Still wrong, though.

Carlin was basically a nihilist. He didn't believe that any ideology could save us, left or right.

Idk, i only know very little of Carlin.
The point is tho, that a lefty doesnt necessarily need to be a dem....

The real error is that when people start talking about being liberal in general terms, what they really are implying is something closer to Libertarianism (...or perhaps Nihilism).

The monstrosity that currently occupies the Left-wing in the US and some other Western countries is in no way Liberal or Libertarian, in that sense.
Nor is it in any real sense, 'Progressive', another common minnomer.

In truth, it's a hyper-controlling and dishonestly manipulative form of Big Brother/Deep State Fascism/Totalitarianism.

Now you know.

You're overgeneralizing.

Who do you think "currently occupies" the left?

"The left" is just as multi-faceted as "the right". Yeah, there's the phalanx of nutjobs like the college-campus "woke" crowd, but pretending that every member of the left is one of those is just like pretending that every member of the right is secretly a Klansman.

Yeah, if the left was composed of the "woke" jerkoffs, it would be as bad as you say, but probably for every one of those there are a thousand moderate liberals like me.

[mookiemcgee]

no,no,no Duk... Only votanic can define what the 50% of people on 'the left' believe, they can't do it for themselves. If he says it only means what the craziest 2% of leftists believe then that is just how it is.... beware of hyper-controlling deep state fascism, they are here to take away your ability to define your own beliefs!

[Votanic]

Carlin didn't identify with any party. He hated the system. Lol.

He said Carlin was a lefty, not a dem. That 2 pair of shoes.

Still wrong, though.

Carlin was basically a nihilist. He didn't believe that any ideology could save us, left or right.

Idk, i only know very little of Carlin.
The point is tho, that a lefty doesnt necessarily need to be a dem....

The real error is that when people start talking about being liberal in general terms, what they really are implying is something closer to Libertarianism (...or perhaps Nihilism).

The monstrosity that currently occupies the Left-wing in the US and some other Western countries is in no way Liberal or Libertarian, in that sense.
Nor is it in any real sense, 'Progressive', another common minnomer.

In truth, it's a hyper-controlling and dishonestly manipulative form of Big Brother/Deep State Fascism/Totalitarianism.

Now you know.

You're overgeneralizing.

Who do you think "currently occupies" the left?

"The left" is just as multi-faceted as "the right". Yeah, there's the phalanx of nutjobs like the college-campus "woke" crowd, but pretending that every member of the left is one of those is just like pretending that every member of the right is secretly a Klansman.

Yeah, if the left was composed of the "woke" jerkoffs, it would be as bad as you say, but probably for every one of those there are a thousand moderate liberals like me.

So now you're trying to frame the college-campus "woke" crowd, as some kind of lunatic fringe??
lunatic YES, fringe, NO.

Biden, Pelosi, AOC, and countless other Dem-drones sure are doing a whole lot of vote-pandering for this supposedly-inconsequential group of lib-fascists.
And the current growing body of reprehensible laws and court decisions is clear evidence of that.

It might surprise you to know, Duk, but I'm basically one of those semi-mythical moderate liberals, ...and this election, I'm voting Republican.

[HitRed]

The narrow path.

[Pack Rat]

Reading Votanic's angry rhetorical b.s. can lead to a loss of neuron connections.

[Votanic]

Reading Votanic's angry rhetorical b.s. can lead to a loss of neuron connections.

rat, correlation does not prove causation.

[Dukasaur]

The real error is that when people start talking about being liberal in general terms, what they really are implying is something closer to Libertarianism (...or perhaps Nihilism).

The monstrosity that currently occupies the Left-wing in the US and some other Western countries is in no way Liberal or Libertarian, in that sense.
Nor is it in any real sense, 'Progressive', another common minnomer.

In truth, it's a hyper-controlling and dishonestly manipulative form of Big Brother/Deep State Fascism/Totalitarianism.

Now you know.

You're overgeneralizing.

Who do you think "currently occupies" the left?

"The left" is just as multi-faceted as "the right". Yeah, there's the phalanx of nutjobs like the college-campus "woke" crowd, but pretending that every member of the left is one of those is just like pretending that every member of the right is secretly a Klansman.

Yeah, if the left was composed of the "woke" jerkoffs, it would be as bad as you say, but probably for every one of those there are a thousand moderate liberals like me.

So now you're trying to frame the college-campus "woke" crowd, as some kind of lunatic fringe??
lunatic YES, fringe, NO.

Yes, definitely the lunatic fringe.

Biden, Pelosi, AOC, and countless other Dem-drones sure are doing a whole lot of vote-pandering for this supposedly-inconsequential group of lib-fascists.
And the current growing body of reprehensible laws and court decisions is clear evidence of that.

Pandering, yes. That's the nature of a first-past-the-post electoral system. One has to hang on to anyone who might remotely be on one's side, so a lot of pandering goes on. Dems have to pander to the most extreme dems, Reps have to pander to the most extreme reps.

First-past-the-post quite simply guarantees the most unpalatable outcome for most people.

But the pandering mostly involves words, not deeds. Biden may be required express his love for trannies during Pride Week, but it has no practical consequences. When you think of the things that matter, Biden's deeds, not words, they're not very left wing at all.

The Infrastructure bill -- America's infrastructure has been grotesquely neglected for half a century. It was desperate for someone to throw some real money at it. This is not a left-wing action.

The Chips Act -- trying to regain America's faltering lead in tech. Very mercantilist, very right wing.

Tariffs -- Biden's continued Trumps high tariffs. Very right wing.

Foreign policy -- his defense of Israel, Taiwan, and Ukraine, would have, in any other decade, been called right wing. Only in this decade of up-is-down and in-is-out could anyone paint these as leftist positions.

It might surprise you to know, Duk, but I'm basically one of those semi-mythical moderate liberals, ...and this election, I'm voting Republican.

Does not surprise me at all. I had an answer, but I'm out of time. Maybe tomorrow.

[GaryDenton]

LOL!

The real error is that when people start talking about being liberal in general terms, what they really are implying is something closer to Libertarianism (...or perhaps Nihilism).

The monstrosity that currently occupies the Left-wing in the US and some other Western countries is in no way Liberal or Libertarian, in that sense.
Nor is it in any real sense, 'Progressive', another common minnomer.

In truth, it's a hyper-controlling and dishonestly manipulative form of Big Brother/Deep State Fascism/Totalitarianism.

[Votanic]

LOL!

The real error is that when people start talking about being liberal in general terms, what they really are implying is something closer to Libertarianism (...or perhaps Nihilism).

The monstrosity that currently occupies the Left-wing in the US and some other Western countries is in no way Liberal or Libertarian, in that sense.
Nor is it in any real sense, 'Progressive', another common minnomer.

In truth, it's a hyper-controlling and dishonestly manipulative form of Big Brother/Deep State Fascism/Totalitarianism.

Dang it Gary, I miss one typo and you won't let it go... Fine. I just changed 'minnomer' to misnomer on the original post. Happy?
...but even you have to admit that everything else I wrote is completely accurate.

[mookiemcgee]

S&P 500, Nasdaq touch record highs on cooling inflation data

Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hit new intraday highs after the April Consumer Price Index report showed further signs that inflation is cooling. Consumer prices rose 3.4% from a year ago. Core CPI, which strips out more volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.6% year-over-year. Both pieces of data were in line with economists’ estimates.

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/p-500-n ... 11516.html

[KoolBak]

In other news, my sales are up 30% over last year.

I'm headed to the whisky store.....

[Dukasaur]

In other news, my sales are up 30% over last year.

I'm headed to the whisky store.....

Good job!

[mookiemcgee]

Sixteen Nobel Prize-winning economists warn a second Trump term would 'reignite' inflation

Sixteen Nobel Prize-winning economists signed a joint letter to warn of the economic risks they see in a potential second term of Donald Trump, including reheated inflation. Trump has so far proposed making his first-term tax cuts permanent, imposing universal tariffs on all imports and pressuring the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates. Many of these same economists signed a September 2021 letter in favor of President Biden’s Build Back Better investment package. Critics at the time warned that the spending could stoke inflation.


"While each of us has different views on the particulars of various economic policies, we all agree that Joe Biden’s economic agenda is vastly superior to Donald Trump’s. There is rightly a worry that Donald Trump will reignite this inflation, with his fiscally irresponsible budgets"

"Nonpartisan researchers, including at Evercore, Allianz, Oxford Economics, and the Peterson Institute, predict that if Donald Trump successfully enacts his agenda, it will increase inflation"

probably just crazy libs tho, Trump knows the economy better than nobel prize winning economists.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/25/nobel-p ... ation.html

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents ... tter-final

[jusplay4fun]

Realize that Economics is NOT a Science, very different from Chemistry, Physics, or Biology. There is NO REAL consensus on many economic matters. So the 16 Nobel Laureate Economists do not constitute "Gospel" in all Economic circles.

Here is at least one opposing view:

In a comprehensive report issued this week, Allianz Research found that the combination of proposals Trump has issued so far would hurt consumers and potentially unnerve financial markets. Much depends on exactly how those policies are implemented, it noted.

“A Trump 2.0 presidency would inherit very large fiscal deficits from the Biden Administration, rising interest expenses and an economy probably more prone to bouts of inflation,” the report said. “Another round of large, deficit-financed tax cuts (or increased spending) could thus reignite inflation and heighten concerns about the sustainability of U.S. public finances in bond markets.”

Maxime Darmet, senior economist for the U.S. and France at Allianz Trade, says “Trump is a guy who likes to bargain to get deals,” adding, “We don’t think he would do too crazy things.”

One guardrail Darmet sees is the increasing power of the conservative wing of the Republican Party in Congress and its aversion to increased government spending and deficits.

and more:

At the top of the high-stakes faceoff, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump sparred over their economic records in a bid to persuade undecided voters theirs is the winning plan to slow rising prices.

Exasperated Americans are paying more for the basics from check-out lanes to the gas pump, souring the national mood and making the inflation surge one of Biden’s greatest challenges going into the November rematch with Trump.

How is Biden doing with the economy?
While the economy has performed well while Biden has been in office, the president has had trouble convincing inflation-weary consumers that his “Bidenomics” plan is working for them. Surveys show consumers are more focused on how much prices have gone up in the last three years than how much slower prices are increasing now.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/06/27/biden-trump-presidential-debate-economy-inflation-takeaways/74236870007/

[jusplay4fun]

S&P 500, Nasdaq touch record highs on cooling inflation data

Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hit new intraday highs after the April Consumer Price Index report showed further signs that inflation is cooling. Consumer prices rose 3.4% from a year ago. Core CPI, which strips out more volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.6% year-over-year. Both pieces of data were in line with economists’ estimates.

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/p-500-n ... 11516.html

Much of the stock market rise can be linked to ONLY 7-10 large tech firms and is not an indication of a larger supposed improvement in the overall US Economy.

According to numbers from DataTrek, members of the Magnificent Seven - that is, Apple Inc. (AAPL), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Nvidia Corp. (NVDA), Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), Meta Platforms Inc. (META), Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) and Tesla Inc. (TSLA) - have driven roughly 76% of the S&P 500's year-to-date gains as of the end of May. And Mauboussin and Callahan noted that these same stocks drove more than half of the index's return in 2023. Concentration started rising rapidly in early 2023.

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240605294/a-few-stocks-are-driving-most-market-gains-heres-why-investors-shouldnt-worry-too-much

more, same source:

To demonstrate this, Mauboussin and Callahan estimated that the aggregate economic profit for U.S. public companies in the universe of stocks they examined - which included all companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq and American stock exchange - was $481 billion in 2023. The top 10 companies by market capitalization contributed $331 billion to that total. So, while the 10 largest stocks represented 27% of the total market capitalization, they accounted for nearly 70% of profits.

(...)
By comparison, the S&P 500 SPX has delivered an annualized price return of 7.3% since its launch on March 4, 1957, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

[HitRed]

Rare I post CNN. Article about World and US debt.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/02/economy/ ... index.html

Excerpt

As debt burdens mount around the world, investors are growing anxious. In France, political turmoil has exacerbated concerns about the country’s debt, sending bond yields, or returns demanded by investors, soaring.

[GaryDenton]

I am still laughing at Votanic and it wasn't the typo.

Bannon is the Trotsky for the MAGA movement and he is an educated fool.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/01/opinion/steve-bannon-trump.html?unlocked_article_code=1.4E0.QxEN.Xb69GVQzCgeu&smid=url-shareGifted

On our show “War Room,” I probably spend at least 20 percent of our time talking about international elements in our movement. So we’ve made Nigel a rock star, Giorgia Meloni a rock star. Marine Le Pen is a rock star. Geert is a rock star. We talk about these people all the time.
I’m not a journalist. I’m not in the media. This is a military headquarters for a populist revolt. This is how we motivate people. This show is an activist show. If you watch this show, you’re a foot soldier. We call it the Army of the Awakened.

Well, they have power. But we’re going to win. We’re ascendant in Europe. We’re ascendant here. We’ve had no money. We’re not organized. It’s self-organizing. But our enemies — and they are enemies — continue to overplay their hand, and so we continue to rise.

[jusplay4fun]

I am still laughing at Votanic and it wasn't the typo.

Bannon is the Trotsky for the MAGA movement and he is an educated fool.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/01/opinion/steve-bannon-trump.html?unlocked_article_code=1.4E0.QxEN.Xb69GVQzCgeu&smid=url-shareGifted

On our show “War Room,” I probably spend at least 20 percent of our time talking about international elements in our movement. So we’ve made Nigel a rock star, Giorgia Meloni a rock star. Marine Le Pen is a rock star. Geert is a rock star. We talk about these people all the time.
I’m not a journalist. I’m not in the media. This is a military headquarters for a populist revolt. This is how we motivate people. This show is an activist show. If you watch this show, you’re a foot soldier. We call it the Army of the Awakened.

Well, they have power. But we’re going to win. We’re ascendant in Europe. We’re ascendant here. We’ve had no money. We’re not organized. It’s self-organizing. But our enemies — and they are enemies — continue to overplay their hand, and so we continue to rise.

I read most of the cited article and scanned parts of it, too. I did not see much discussion of Economics there, GaryD. LOTS of right wing stuff, much of which I consider extremist. Bannon even admits to his extremist views.

[mookiemcgee]

First negative monthly CPI numbers in 4 years just dropped. Money supply still going up, but Fed still dumping assets and reducing it's balance sheet all while economy continues it's recovery (impressive). starting to look like we can start putting pandemic printer goes brrr effects in the rear view. Might start seeing rate cuts in Q4, more likely early 2025

[HitRed]

Recession by end of February.

We'll see.