The Werewolves of Miller's Hollow Wolves win

[Votanic]

No, on Night 1, there was one regular werewolf attack (on the Bailiff) and one AWF werewolf conversion (on DDS).

Neither version of the manual shows the AWF power as a separate attack. They both state that when the AWF uses his power, the victim "isn't devoured, but infected".

"The victim" being the one that was chosen for the regular wolf attack that night.

Point taken, but I would guess there is another 'mod'ification that makes the werewolf attack and AWF conversion separate.
Another possibility is we are still misinterpreting the DDS Town (bitten) scenario.

[Ragian]

Checking wording with Traf regarding my role. Will post when informed.

[Ewebasher]

No, on Night 1, there was one regular werewolf attack (on the Bailiff) and one AWF werewolf conversion (on DDS).

Neither version of the manual shows the AWF power as a separate attack. They both state that when the AWF uses his power, the victim "isn't devoured, but infected".

Assuming AWF power couldn't be split (doesn't logically make sense but then this is a game about mythical creatures so who knows...) does that mean BBW must have used power on N1? Ragian hit by BBW, DDS by AWF?

But that does raise questions about N2. Do we definitely know there were 2 attacks or is it just your claim that is suggesting there was?

In terms of claims (other than Loose's Seer) there have been no counter claims on any of the roles.

Some of the claims are for roles that I'd term nice to haves for the game

Cupid
Bear Tamer
Village Elder
Little Girl

and others are more intrinsic roles

Defender
Witch
Seer

Of the major roles, given the lack of counter claims (let's forget Loose now) I reckon Devante as Seer and Ragian as Witch are confirmed

Degaston as Defender is close to confirmed given lack of counter claim but it has been less than 24 hours so still time I guess (Thor any time you're ready... I know your town but would be nice to get your input)

Looking at the 'nice to have' roles we know thanks to DDS's demise that Cupid exists, so given lack of counter claim (and from my viewpoint confirmed townness) I reckon SoN!c is who he says he is

The others (my own included) plus all Simple Villager claims are still open to challenge I reckon

[Ewebasher]

4.Votanic - Village Elder?
6.Extreme Ways - has he claimed? Looking back Vot claims he is Town and there was some fudging around the word Vanilla...
7.Swang918 - Simple Villager?
8.Devante - Seer
10.*Pixar* - Little Girl?
11.SoN!c - Cupid
12.Ewebasher - Bear Tamer
15.Thor60 - no claim. I say Town
16.Ragian - Witch
17.Degaston - Defender

[Votanic]

4.Votanic - Village Elder?
6.Extreme Ways - has he claimed? Looking back Vot claims he is Town and there was some fudging around the word Vanilla...
7.Swang918 - Simple Villager?
8.Devante - Seer
10.*Pixar* - Little Girl?
11.SoN!c - Cupid
12.Ewebasher - Bear Tamer
15.Thor60 - no claim. I say Town
16.Ragian - Witch
17.Degaston - Defender

Yes, my secret role is Village Elder.
Also from Traf via Confession is that EW is a Simple Villager (i.e. Vanilla)

At this point, everybody except Thor has claimed...
Power roles for which there is no direct evidence of their existence, except the claim, include Little Girl and Bear Tamer.
I suppose some might argue my Elder role has no evidence, but the blood found after Night 2 is my blood.

[Ewebasher]

I suppose some might argue my Elder role has no evidence, but the blood found after Night 2 is my blood.

Can we get a rush on that DNA test

[SoN!c]

4.Votanic - Village Elder: Votanic did gave a hint early on in the game he could survive a night without any problem, i was thinking Village Elder back then just like i was thinking Scandalmonger on Charle so that confirms Vot being the Elder even more to me. It's the reason i posted the Village Elder card when Max was gonna go for his drive by shooting plan. Just a little name dropping to see what the reaction would be.

6.Extreme Ways - claimed Vanilla - confessed by Votanic

7.Swang918 - claims Simple Villager - just like i was thinking Scandalmonger on Charle and Elder on Vot i was thinking defender on Swang. Well i was wrong here.

8.Devante - Seer 100% CONFIRMED TOWN

10.*Pixar* - Little Girl? Swangs attack on the soft-claim made a lot of sense and Pix first reply defending himself was a little bit strange. However LC went strong against Pix, he got appointed sheriff by the infected DDS and would Strike have confessed for real so fast if Pix was one of his fellow wolves?

11.SoN!c - Cupid yes i am

12.Ewebasher - Bear Tamer - I believe Ewe. And if him and Thor were wolves then Thor would have said something by now?

15.Thor60 - no claim. I say Town. He has "No bear sniff". And Thor is a real life reverend by the way. He is busy man and i can get his 'totaly lost" feeling being this is his first mafia game. But we need Thor soft-claiming because i feel that could be the key to unlock this puzzle. There could be a good chance he is gonna counterclaim somebody here.

16.Ragian - Witch Well there is a witch in here. And both replacements being wolf (Josko and Parked) while Mpolo mod killed seems something that no Mod would do. So at least one of them would be town and that would be Ragian?

17.Degaston - Defender no counterclaim

Next : I think we are looking for 2 wolves:

A wolfpack of 3 at the start : AFW (Strike), the BBW (?) and a common wolf (?)+ 3P white wolf (LC). There should not have been a wolfpack of 4 since that would be way too overpowered with the special powers? (with the AFW conversion and the BBW double kill). So im excluding any scenario in where we need to find 3 wolves.

And killing the AFW should have killed the BBW power of a second attack. So another reason Vot is town.

In this scenario:

That leaves 1 wolf attack a night (including the white wolf, because the wolfpack + the white wolf just meat who to eat and then go for the selected target) but the white wolf can extra attack every other night a wolf). Since LC is dead N2 was the only possibility LC could have attacked a wolf.


So:

D1 or N1 attack:
DDS was bitten (i think by Strike AFW during the day before his death)

N1 attack:
Bailiff was Wolf-killed

So If the DDS attack happened during the night there were 2 wolf attacks that night including the AFW still alive. Neither Deg nor Ragian defended DDS so "bitten" and survived can only come from a AFW conversion bite? Otherwise DDS should have been eaten because neither the witch nor the defender came to the rescue. But Strike was already dead. So im thinking Strike bit DDS during the day already (for extra game balance reasons, 3 wolves and a fast D1 conversion). The idea that the Accured Wolf Father would live on as a ghost in another wolf transferring his powers seems a bit odd. I think Strike converted DDS after he was going for sheriff (to appoint a wolf sheriff), then DDS dived the confession because he was bitten.
However its possible. Say DDS got bitten on D2 (the AFW power transferred to another wolf), he bites DDS on D2 (so he is infected at that moment but the wolf conversion will only happen during the night "under the moon") then that explains DDS bitten mark but still town allegiance. He would "convert" as wolf on N2.

The more i think on it the more i believe this last possibility.

DDS was bitten on N1 but he would only convert into wolf on N2..so he died as infected but not converted. Thats is also why he wouldn't transfer the sheriff badge to a wolf.?

In any case : 1 wolf attack and 1 AFW attack

N2 attack:
N2: Vot was attacked - the elder tree bleeded but survived "blood was found"
N2: Dega died (according to Ragian and Ragian resurrected him)

In any case : 2 wolf attacks

N3 attack:
No succes

Just 1 attack probably on Deve

So 2 attacks on N2 can only be explained by LC hitting another wolf.

Deg says "I defended Vot on N1, Swang on N2, and Dev on N3."

That is why im thinking Deg is wolf. Ofcourse there could be a fault in this scenario. But after the AFW died there should only be 1 wolf attack a night (+the white wolf every other night). Its in the rulebook. 2 wolf attacks on N2 can't be explained any other way then Loose. And then it's either Deg or Vot that must be the wolf..

On the other hand Deve surviving N3 can only be explained by the Defender. So unless Swang or Thor counterclaim Dega, well Dega is town. And possibly LC -as white wolf- could choose on "every other night" who to attack?, a wolf or a townie..and he chose townie Deg?

In any case: Something still doesn't add up if we need to find a wolf pair (2 wolves).

If its just 1 wolf to find it would add up way more

[SoN!c]

Also it could be we are looking for just 1 more wolf (instead of 2) in this white wolf "can choose a wolf OR townie every other night" scenario (its the only scenario that explains Deg and Vot both town to me).

After all You'd have a AFW wolf who can convert 1 townie

You have A White wolf who can extra attack any other night so on N2, N4, N6 (can choose a wolf or extra town target)

And possibly a Big Bad Wolf who can attack twice every night until a wolf is killed.

That are a lot of possible wolf kills i'd say. And a "Yikes" moment for town if we didn't get the AFW on D1..

[degaston]

I suppose some might argue my Elder role has no evidence, but the blood found after Night 2 is my blood.

How do you know it's yours and not mine? I was the one who apparently died.

[degaston]

So If the DDS attack happened during the night there were 2 wolf attacks that night including the AFW still alive. Neither Deg nor Ragian defended DDS so "bitten" and survived can only come from a AFW conversion bite? Otherwise DDS should have been eaten because neither the witch nor the defender came to the rescue. But Strike was already dead. So im thinking Strike bit DDS during the day already (for extra game balance reasons, 3 wolves and a fast D1 conversion).

I can believe Traf made some changes to the roles, but werewolf attacks during the day is a bit too much for me to swallow.

[SoN!c]

So If the DDS attack happened during the night there were 2 wolf attacks that night including the AFW still alive. Neither Deg nor Ragian defended DDS so "bitten" and survived can only come from a AFW conversion bite? Otherwise DDS should have been eaten because neither the witch nor the defender came to the rescue. But Strike was already dead. So im thinking Strike bit DDS during the day already (for extra game balance reasons, 3 wolves and a fast D1 conversion).

I can believe Traf made some changes to the roles, but werewolf attacks during the day is a bit too much for me to swallow.

Yes; true so that is why the "The more i think on it the more i believe this last possibility." line is there afterall..

(DDS was bitten on N1 but he would only convert into wolf on N2..so he died as infected but not converted.)

[degaston]

Yes; true so that is why the "The more i think on it the more i believe this last possibility." line is there afterall..)

What do you mean? The "last possibility" you posted is:

However its possible. Say DDS got bitten on D2 (the AFW power transferred to another wolf), he bites DDS on D2 (so he is infected at that moment but the wolf conversion will only happen during the night "under the moon") then that explains DDS bitten mark but still town allegiance. He would "convert" as wolf on N2.

So you're saying that you believe the wolves can bite during the day. But you're also saying that you agree with me that wolves can't bite during the day. Which do you believe? It can't be both.

[SoN!c]

Which do you believe? It can't be both.

I just retyped the same text of my previous post Deg. Thats all.. It was already in the big post. Same text.. you commented on it that it was "hard to swallow", but i already said myself in that big post i believe the second option more..

Believing the second option more also means DDS didn't know the other wolves yet.. so it affects my idea on Pix. And im struggling on Pix, town or wolf?

[Votanic]

I suppose some might argue my Elder role has no evidence, but the blood found after Night 2 is my blood.

Can we get a rush on that DNA test

To clarify, I'm just saying the blood is evidence of the Elder role, but yes, since I am the Elder, I would know that.

[degaston]

I suppose some might argue my Elder role has no evidence, but the blood found after Night 2 is my blood.

Can we get a rush on that DNA test

To clarify, I'm just saying the blood is evidence of the Elder role, but yes, since I am the Elder, I would know that.

How do you know it's yours and not mine? I was the one who apparently died.

[Votanic]

First, thank you Sonic for remember that sight bit of appropriate breadcrumbing I did on Day 1. Yes I was hinting at having the elder power.
Here is the original quote from Page 7 if anyone is interested:

@ The Bonesetter - EW: EW, we sort-of already have a plan, which I now need to confirm. The plan is you will not be the Confessee candidate and you will renew my Confessor power using your Bonesetter power. Is this still what you agree to do? Confirming this and then following through will certainly seem town-credible to me and others in alignment with me. Backing out of the plan now will appear scummy to me. So what are your thoughts and are you with me? Btw, if your concern is that I might be killed by wolves tonight, I have a hunch (backed with some real evidence, which I will not elaborate on here) that will not happen on Night 1.

Degaston almost surely must be town becuase nobody has challenge his defender claim. Thor is the only other possibility... and if he is defender and not bothering to show up to claim it (and also a wolf Dega somehow figured that out so he could falsely safe-claim defender) then Town just got nuked. End of story.

I'm not going to invoke bastard-mod play at this point, though I'm already thinking Traf fibbed a bit about the randomness of linkage between public and private roles.

So I am operating from the virtual certainty that two Townies got attacked by wolves on Night 2... and the must be the BBW (barring out-of-bound weirdness).
I am guessing the BBW is a one-time (use don Night 2) and it is not lost because another wolf dies.
The ide that the White Wolf could also second attack Townies makes him a an uber-BBBBBW and totally destroys game balance.
Likewise the idea that the AWF has multiple attacks turns this into an unannounced-bastard-cult game. NO evidence for that, thank god.

Now if we get beyond this (...and I'm not trying to rush it, I want everyone on board.) we have a good list of strongly confirmed townies.

Vot, EW, Dega, Ragian, Sonic, Devante
If we trust Ewebasher's claim (It does seem likely...) that adds Ewebasher and Thor. (We could lynch one of them as a check, but that could just be a waste...)

That leaves us with Pixar (claim less likely) and swang (Vanilla claim).

So the best bet is to either lynch Pixar or swang... and if lynching one of them doesn't end our wolf problem, then lynch the other.
Here is what I wrote about that a couple pages back:

So where does that leave us?

Barring additional info (Hey Thor, anytime you feel like it!). I am going to say we should either lynch Pixar or swang.

The argument for voting Sheriff Pixar is that he has two votes, so if he is a wolf, we should get him out of the way first.
Also his claimed Little Girl role didn't do much to help Town... and it even tried to throw some suspicion on Thor, an easy target.

The argument for voting Barber swang is that making the Barber also a wolf is a cute idea... and I think Traf did link some public roles with particular private roles:
Bailiff & Pyromaniac, Confessor & Elder, Barkeep & White Wolf are all just too convenient to be random... so why not Barber & Wolf?

Okay, so what does everybody else think?

FPed by Dega.

[Votanic]

I suppose some might argue my Elder role has no evidence, but the blood found after Night 2 is my blood.

Can we get a rush on that DNA test

To clarify, I'm just saying the blood is evidence of the Elder role, but yes, since I am the Elder, I would know that.

How do you know it's yours and not mine? I was the one who apparently died.

Maybe it's both of ours.

[SoN!c]

@Chomolungma, if its just one wolf to flush out its Swang or Pix. But just one wolf is town guaranteed win in the end anyways. So that is why i wanna play the 2 wolf remaining scenario - just in case.. and that is Rackhams Razor stuff..

And, as asked by Deve, i reached out to Thor - pm'd him that the reverends presence is much welcomed/needed here.. Its still unopened..

I like this game a lot. What a Mystery to crack

[Votanic]

@Chomolungma, if its just one wolf to flush out its Swang or Pix. But just one wolf is town guaranteed win in the end anyways. So that is why i wanna play the 2 wolf remaining scenario - just in case.. and that is Rackhams Razor stuff..

And, as asked by Deve, i reached out to Thor - pm'd him that the reverends presence is much welcomed/needed here.. Its still unopened..

I like this game a lot. What a Mystery to crack

Barring some batshit twist, the tale is winding down, whether it is now wolves or a lone wolf.

1. We need to debate who to lynch before the clock runs out.
Frankly for a Town win, it is less important which one, than just to be sure we do it.
I'll get the ball rolling: Vote Pixar.
2. We need to plan night defenses.
I suggest Defender (Dega) defend Devante again. If Dega is barred from protecting the same player twice in a row, I'll take being defended, please. ...and If he can't defend the player twice at all, then he should defend himself.

[SoN!c]

So...Rackhams Razor.


Duo wolf pairs..

Let's look at Pixars "random" chat first:

Night 1 Chat: "i'm happy to go with whatever you guys choose including nominating me to eat someone."

Night 2 Chat: "I reckon I should be the one todo the dirty again though whoever it is as chances are my game is up tomorrow?"

Night 3 Chat: "im going to stay on the low low for next day as I feel this game is coming to an end for us soon."

To be honest, all 3 chats sound as Ewebasher to me..

Now seriously, seems like whoever made the chat on N1 did get selected by all wolves to choose the wolf kill. And he got the wolf votes again to do "the dirty" again on N2.. so the other wolves must be very inexperienced..not even making a suggestion..

Anyways "stay on the low low".. "for next day".. "though whoever it is as chances are my game is up tomorrow"...

Who speaks like this? C'mon? This just sounds like a very bad LC imitation? And LC must have been the speaker because his game was up tomorrow indeed.

So LC, and a inexperienced wolf pair like Ewe and Thor? Or is this chat designed by Pix to make it look so?

If ´Pix did get the wolf chat he should have claimed vanilla. And keeped tuned in on wolf radio

Vote Pixar

[swang918]

eh, lying in a claim-and lying in general- is never good.

[degaston]

eh, lying in a claim-and lying in general- is never good.

What is this in reference to?

[swang918]

eh, lying in a claim-and lying in general- is never good.

What is this in reference to?

Re sonics idea that pix should have claimed vanillla

[*Pixar*]

When I reveal as town am I still handing sheriff off to Son!c? Yes it seems like a fake claim but just revealing what I was given is all. Seems to me Thor should have been mod killed already but oh well, only reason I don't see a mod kill is because of possibly being wolf. That's my thoughts and I guess I'll vote for the first time in the game I think? lol

Vote Thor

[degaston]

When I reveal as town am I still handing sheriff off to Son!c? Yes it seems like a fake claim but just revealing what I was given is all. Seems to me Thor should have been mod killed already but oh well, only reason I don't see a mod kill is because of possibly being wolf. That's my thoughts and I guess I'll vote for the first time in the game I think? lol

Vote Thor

I don't think Thor is a good target because we will probably lose him anyway if he doesn't show up.
I think I would prefer Swang a little bit over you, but I'll think about it more tomorrow.