dgz345 wrote:The problem with no lynch is that if strike dies our odds are the same.
If we count him as confirmed then we have 3 unconfirmed.
So it's still going to be a vote with the same 3 people.
Tho we might have a doctor that can get lucky.
I would say doctor on strike and we vote no lynch.
I agree with this logic. You're right that if strike dies it's the same. But if we do have a doctor, or a roleblocker, or a busdriver, or some related role that can get us into D4 without strike dying, then we're in a better position. In fact, we may be in extremely good shape in that case. We can infer from strike's comment that he didn't come up with scum, so unless something unexpected happened, that means he knows at least 1 of the 3 of us is town. If he survives tonight then he has a decent chance of clearing the second one, so we're set for D4. He might get unlucky and investigate the person who scum kills, but that's not actively worse for us than the alternative, and then at least there's only 2 people to choose from rather than 3. Again, if there is no doctor/roleblocker/etc. then we're in the same boat on D4 that we are now. But scum doesn't know if one of these roles exists, so they will have some hesitancy tonight on whether to target strike, and that uncertainty is also good for town. So since there's only potential upside, we wait.
Vote No LynchIn case it occurred to anyone else, I did toss around in my mind the possibility of strike being scum partners with aage, and sacrificing him in a long con to gain our trust. But I think the fact that he didn't claim a scum result today is good evidence he's town, because he could have just claimed a guilty scum investigation and had us mislynch into a mafia victory.