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Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia END Mafia win

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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia

Postby Ragian on Sat Apr 27, 2019 12:28 pm

Let me put you out of your misery, then.

vote Razor
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia

Postby dgz345 on Sat Apr 27, 2019 1:08 pm

Ragian wrote:Let me put you out of your misery, then.

vote Razor


doesn't mater who we vote razor gets his wish anyways by ending D1
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia

Postby chapcrap on Sat Apr 27, 2019 1:08 pm

Ragian wrote:Let me put you out of your misery, then.

vote Razor

FOS Ragian for not voting me.
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia

Postby Ragian on Sun Apr 28, 2019 1:48 am

:lol:

Fair enough. I just don't like Razor not giving any thoughts on the little stuff going on. Tobi has claimed out of nowhere, and Dakky has jumped on it. There's stuff to debate.
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia

Postby Pikanchion on Sun Apr 28, 2019 4:10 am

Ragian wrote:Claiming for no apparent reason is indeed bad play. However, claiming vt D1 would be worse play as it's a minimal lynch risk for town. Even in a very basic game. I cannot see this as an attempt to pull anything at all. A PR claim out of the blue would raise more flags to me in this game. FoS Pika.

In any game with Vanilla Townies the VT's only job (outside of general scumhunting, but that is not unique to them) is to take the bullet for the Town Power Role(s) during the Night Phase. Claiming VT without pressure as Town throws this one advantage they have (being a potential PR in the eyes of Scum, while expendable to Town) away and is an anti-Town move, claiming VT (or even just encouraging debate about the presence of VTs) might lead to others also claiming VT and greatly diminish Town's chances as shown.

Additionally, an unforced VT claim has increased potential to waste the time of Investigative Roles, generally in the early game if somebody claims they did so because they were close to being lynched, and in the case of a VT claim said player would then usually be lynched. In the case of an unforced claim (that the Town for some reason allows unchallenged), the Cop (should one exist) still has some incentive to investigate this player as they could be lying, but a Town result now has the least value of all potential Cop results (barring a false result). This is due to a Cop's Town result on a PR being worth more than a Town result on a VT, as the PR is worth more to Town and those verified are no longer lynch targets, either to the Cop alone or Town in general depending on if the Cop has claimed yet.

Beyond the arguments presented above, why is claiming VT day one a policy lynch?
Simply, claiming VT as Town is a bad move regardless of whether Town believes you or not (unless you are lying), claiming VT as Scum is only a bad move if Town does not believe you. Allowing people to claim VT day one and not be lynched encourages selfish Town players to commit actions that hurt Town, and opens the door for Scum to take advantage.
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia

Postby Ragian on Sun Apr 28, 2019 5:46 am

You're looking from the other side of the river, there. Claiming VT D1 as scum is a worse move than claiming it as town (even though I agree, and has stated as much, that it's bad play). Usually, there's not too much to go on D1, so often the D1 lynch has an air of sacrifice to it. Let's say you have two claims (which is not unusual) and you're not sure about either of them. Surely, you'd lynch the VT. Therefore, I think it would be an incredible own goal for scum to claim VT D1.
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia

Postby dgz345 on Sun Apr 28, 2019 6:38 am

By the way. I want a refund. I'm 100% that the sign said 9 not 29.99$
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia

Postby Pikanchion on Sun Apr 28, 2019 9:34 am

Ragian wrote:You're looking from the other side of the river, there. Claiming VT D1 as scum is a worse move than claiming it as town (even though I agree, and has stated as much, that it's bad play). Usually, there's not too much to go on D1, so often the D1 lynch has an air of sacrifice to it. Let's say you have two claims (which is not unusual) and you're not sure about either of them. Surely, you'd lynch the VT. Therefore, I think it would be an incredible own goal for scum to claim VT D1.

Again, not if Town refuses to lynch for it.
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia

Postby strike wolf on Sun Apr 28, 2019 10:13 am

I don't disagree that it is bad play. Where we diverge is calling it a policy lynch situation.

Your long post describes why it is bad play. It doesn't as much prove that it's necessarily scummy. I actually find it scummier to try to jump on this so early in day 1 as a need to lynch situation.

@Tobi: why did you feel it was a good idea to claim unprovoked?
Iliad wrote:The upside of calling everyone scum and making 1000 predictions is that statistically you should get a few right.


Strike wolf need brain for smart making.
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia

Postby Metsfanmax on Sun Apr 28, 2019 10:29 am

strike wolf wrote:I don't disagree that it is bad play. Where we diverge is calling it a policy lynch situation.

Your long post describes why it is bad play. It doesn't as much prove that it's necessarily scummy. I actually find it scummier to try to jump on this so early in day 1 as a need to lynch situation.


Pika's post wasn't attempting to prove that it is necessarily scummy; its main point is actually to prove we should lynch based on it, with the fact that it is bad town play one of the factors to consider in this decision, so FoS strike for clearly mischaracterizing Pika's post.
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia

Postby strike wolf on Sun Apr 28, 2019 11:40 am

I understand that he's not saying it's necessarily scummy. I'm more trying to say that lynching based on policy here doesn't go with anything scummy. I generally don't like policy lynches because they exist outside scumminess. We lynch Tobi today based on policy. Where does that get us for tonight? Where does it get us tomorrow. You can't really analyze the votes on a policy lynch which makes it an ideal situation for scum to push for a lynch which is why I said I find its scummier to push for this as a need to lynch situation.

I also agree with Rage that claiming vt early doesn't make sense for scum. We may not lynch him today but it only makes sense for scum if the move puts less scrutiny on the role. If anything this pushes more scrutiny onto why did Tobi claim with only a minor prodding from Raglan?
Iliad wrote:The upside of calling everyone scum and making 1000 predictions is that statistically you should get a few right.


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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia

Postby Pikanchion on Sun Apr 28, 2019 5:49 pm

strike wolf wrote:I understand that he's not saying it's necessarily scummy. I'm more trying to say that lynching based on policy here doesn't go with anything scummy. I generally don't like policy lynches because they exist outside scumminess. We lynch Tobi today based on policy. Where does that get us for tonight? Where does it get us tomorrow. You can't really analyze the votes on a policy lynch which makes it an ideal situation for scum to push for a lynch which is why I said I find its scummier to push for this as a need to lynch situation.

Well this accusation against me is bordering on a Wine in Front of Me situation and can be easily flipped the other way. Why would scum push for this lynch? Why—as scum—would you put your neck on the line to lead a bandwagon on somebody you could be fairly certain is merely a VT?

strike wolf wrote:I also agree with Rage that claiming vt early doesn't make sense for scum. We may not lynch him today but it only makes sense for scum if the move puts less scrutiny on the role. If anything this pushes more scrutiny onto why did Tobi claim with only a minor prodding from Raglan?

What exactly does more scrutiny mean on Day 1?
-This? "@Tobi: why did you feel it was a good idea to claim unprovoked?"
Realistically can you imagine Tobikera ever answering this question in such a way that would cause you to cast your vote in that direction? -If not, what good is this increased scrutiny really? You already said you don't find the action itself scummy, so unless Tobikera's answer is "I did it because I'm Scum", followed by a moustache twirl and an evil laugh, we both know this "scrutiny" from you really amounts to nothing more than reading Tobikera's posts with the same degree of skeptiscism you should have for every other player's posts at this point in the game (assuming you aren't scum yourself).

Let's look at what happens regarding Tobikera after we don't lynch:
—Best case is Tobikera is lying and our Cop—should we have one—investigates tonight, telling us tomorrow. We would be better off lynching now in this case.
—Next best is Tobikera telling the truth and said Cop investigates somebody else, either Tobikera survives to the end as negative utility the whole way or is lynched a different day. Lynching now about the same as lynching later and lynching negative utility is the least bad possible mislynch.
—Tobikera tells the truth and the Cop investigates to confirm, Cop wastes an action. Lynching now saves the Cop an action and only costs us a negative utility role.
—Tobikera lies and the Cop does not investigate. Lynching now is obviously better than this.
—Worst case is something along the lines of Tobikera tells the truth, Cop does investigate, and Scum have a Watcher. In that scenario we likely lose the Cop N2 with them having achieved absolutely nothing, lynching now is better.

A claimed (but unverified) VT is effectively negative utility, should Tobikera be such then Scum know Tobikera is harmless to them while Town cannot be sure. To choose not to lynch here is tantamount to gambling both on the game's setup and the decisions made by any Investigative roles Town may have.



An aside, something is happening! What are all you "dead game"/"I hate Day 1" people doing? You are fully capable of voting/commenting on this or making your own case on somebody... Lynch all lurkers is policy lynch in certain circles also ;)
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia

Postby Tobikera on Sun Apr 28, 2019 6:04 pm

strike wolf wrote: @Tobi: why did you feel it was a good idea to claim unprovoked?


Apologies. It was certainly a brain fart on my part. I didn't mean to say all that I did. For the last 5 weeks we have been preparing to move out of an apartment which I used as a research lab and incorporate as much as we could into our condo. So between packing, selling, giving away, and moving things, and now unpacking and storing, it's been highly stressful. I'm sure all of you have gone through this at one point. So, during this period, I've been doing more knee-jerking than usual. I probably should have passed on playing. And, I def. should not have played two games of mafia at once. I promise to be a model player for the remainder of this game, if you choose not to lynch me....understandable if you do.
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia

Postby blacky365 on Sun Apr 28, 2019 6:31 pm

Pikas theories do make alot of sense.
And by the sounds of it, Tobi doesnt need this game!

Silly question perhaps... in a game of this size, would there be more than one VT?
if no and tobi is lying then would the real vt counterclaim?

Either way;
Vote Tobi
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia

Postby Ragian on Sun Apr 28, 2019 11:59 pm

On phone here, but I need to get a few things off my chest:

@pika, everything in a game of mafia hinges on whether town acts on it or not. It's not an argument specially designed for your point of view. Your thoughts on any cop role's involvement is also overstated, I think. It's not as if Tobi's move is the only weird thing here to scrutinise. Pika, do you think Tobi is scum?

@blackie, why are you voting Tobi? Counterclaiming VT makes no sense. You only CC roles that are only one of in a game. VT is the most common role, and this is a standard game according to the mod.

I'll have to agree with Strike. For one, I don't think Tobi is scum, so obviously my stance is founded on that, but I can't see us learn anything from lynching Tobi. We won't establish any voting patterns because it's a "free lynch", so when analysed everyone can just go, "Well, Tobi played poorly, so he brought it on himself." How do you determine who is scum knowing that?

Where are dakky and Aage? And Raz to some extent...
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia

Postby chapcrap on Mon Apr 29, 2019 12:16 am

blacky365 wrote:Pikas theories do make alot of sense.
And by the sounds of it, Tobi doesnt need this game!

Silly question perhaps... in a game of this size, would there be more than one VT?
if no and tobi is lying then would the real vt counterclaim?

Either way;
Vote Tobi

So, basically, you are claiming a town power role or scum...
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia

Postby Ragian on Mon Apr 29, 2019 12:59 am

Or indirectly counterclaiming...
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia

Postby Skoffin on Mon Apr 29, 2019 4:24 am

Vote Count
11 alive, 6 needed to lynch.


Pikanchion ---- dakky
dakky21 ------- Mets, aage
aage ----------- Blacky, pika
Ragian ---------
strike wolf ----
chapcrap ------
Razorvich ------
blacky365 -----
dgz345 ---------
Metsfanmax --- ragoo
Tobikera -------

NOTE: You must unvote for a new cvote to count.
f*ck you guys votes are now in green or red. No white vites sdfjgknsejdgn
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia

Postby Ragian on Mon Apr 29, 2019 7:46 am

I'll just unvote for now.

I do have someone in mind, though. Just need to see them react.
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia

Postby Pikanchion on Mon Apr 29, 2019 7:53 am

Skoffin wrote:f*ck you guys votes are now in green or red. No white vites sdfjgknsejdgn

Okay, Unvote: aage
Vote: Tobikera
:^)


Ragian wrote:@pika, everything in a game of mafia hinges on whether town acts on it or not. It's not an argument specially designed for your point of view. Your thoughts on any cop role's involvement is also overstated, I think. It's not as if Tobi's move is the only weird thing here to scrutinise. Pika, do you think Tobi is scum?

Marginally more than any other player currently.


blacky365 wrote:Silly question perhaps... in a game of this size, would there be more than one VT?
if no and tobi is lying then would the real vt counterclaim?
Pikanchion wrote:Claiming VT (or even just encouraging debate about the presence of VTs) might lead to others also claiming VT and greatly diminish Town's chances as shown.
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia

Postby chapcrap on Mon Apr 29, 2019 4:53 pm

Ragian wrote:I'll just unvote for now.

I do have someone in mind, though. Just need to see them react.

If it is me, this is my reaction.

I'll give my two cents about the policy lynch question. I don't think it should be done. Was there a reason to claim at all? No. Obviously you can say you're town. Everyone is going to do that. It is something that hurts town. If he's telling the truth, that takes a target away from scum. If he's town, but actually has a power role, then it's not the worst ever. Maybe he gets ignored for a couple of days and goes ham on scum. However, if he starts acting scummy (can you imagine that from Tobi?!) and then the true role is claimed, town is probably gonna lynch him on the policy lynch of not lying if you're a town. He should know this. Then town lynches a power role because of a policy situation.

I guess my thing is that, yes, it's a bad play, but what does lynching him do for town?
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia

Postby blacky365 on Mon Apr 29, 2019 6:43 pm

Skoffin wrote:Vote Count
11 alive, 6 needed to lynch.


Pikanchion ---- dakky
dakky21 ------- Mets, aage
aage ----------- Blacky, pika
Ragian ---------
strike wolf ----
chapcrap ------
Razorvich ------
blacky365 -----
dgz345 ---------
Metsfanmax --- ragoo
Tobikera -------

NOTE: You must unvote for a new cvote to count.
f*ck you guys votes are now in green or red. No white vites sdfjgknsejdgn


unvote

Erm ok, so I didn’t unvote first before voting tobi so my vote didn’t count anyway.

Also i can only go off past experience and a policy lynch hasn’t seemed like such a bad idea most of the time.
Although admittedly in all my games scum has won, so perhaps I should learn from previous errors and only vote if I am convinced I am lunching scum.

@chap @rag. I’m not claiming or countering. It was a genuine question. I get that vt is the most common role but in a smaller game like this how many would there be?
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia

Postby Pikanchion on Mon Apr 29, 2019 6:56 pm

blacky365 wrote:@chap @rag. I’m not claiming or countering. It was a genuine question. I get that vt is the most common role but in a smaller game like this how many would there be?
Pikanchion wrote:
blacky365 wrote:Silly question perhaps... in a game of this size, would there be more than one VT?
if no and tobi is lying then would the real vt counterclaim?
Pikanchion wrote:Claiming VT (or even just encouraging debate about the presence of VTs) might lead to others also claiming VT and greatly diminish Town's chances as shown.

Look up some past games here, or general setups of this size if you want. It varies a lot.
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia

Postby Metsfanmax on Mon Apr 29, 2019 7:35 pm

chapcrap wrote:I guess my thing is that, yes, it's a bad play, but what does lynching him do for town?


It is generally agreed that D1 lynches are a good thing. D1 lynches that at worst lynch a VT are a pretty decent outcome. You do get a vote pattern to look at -- scum would probably want to have at least some of their people on such a lynch.
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia

Postby chapcrap on Mon Apr 29, 2019 11:18 pm

Metsfanmax wrote:
chapcrap wrote:I guess my thing is that, yes, it's a bad play, but what does lynching him do for town?


It is generally agreed that D1 lynches are a good thing. D1 lynches that at worst lynch a VT are a pretty decent outcome. You do get a vote pattern to look at -- scum would probably want to have at least some of their people on such a lynch.

Vote pattern on a claimed VT for a policy lynch seems like town isn't getting anything.
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